AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC - Quarter Report: 2020 June (Form 10-Q)

____________________________________________________________________________________________

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-Q

☑ Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

For the Quarterly Period Ended June 30, 2020

☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

For the transition period from ____ to ____

Commission File No. 1-13653

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

Incorporated under the Laws of Ohio IRS Employer I.D. No. 31-1544320

301 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202

(513) 579-2121

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months, and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes ☑ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant has submitted electronically, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T during the preceding 12 months. Yes ☑ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company or an emerging growth company. See definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company” and “emerging growth company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.

Large accelerated filer ☑ Accelerated filer ☐ Non-accelerated filer ☐

Smaller reporting company ☐ Emerging growth company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes ☐ No ☑

Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of Each Class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of Each Exchange on Which Registered

Common Stock

AFG

New York Stock Exchange

6% Subordinated Debentures due November 15, 2055

AFGH

New York Stock Exchange

5.875% Subordinated Debentures due March 30, 2059

AFGB

New York Stock Exchange

5.625% Subordinated Debentures due June 1, 2060

AFGD

New York Stock Exchange

5.125% Subordinated Debentures due December 15, 2059

AFGC

New York Stock Exchange

As of August 1, 2020, there were 88,540,128 shares of the Registrant’s Common Stock outstanding, excluding 14.9 million shares owned by subsidiaries.

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

TABLE OF CONTENTS



			Page
Part I — Financial Information
Item 1 — Financial Statements:
Consolidated Balance Sheet			2
Consolidated Statement of Earnings			3
Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income			4
Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity			5
Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows			7
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements			8
Item 2 — Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations			36
Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk			98
Item 4 — Controls and Procedures			98

Part II — Other Information
Item 1A — Risk Factors			98
Item 2 — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds			99
Item 6 — Exhibits			100
Signature			100

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

PART I

ITEM 1. — FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET (UNAUDITED)

(Dollars in Millions)


	June 30, 2020		December 31, 2019
Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$	2,698	$	2,314
Investments:
Fixed maturities, available for sale at fair value (amortized cost — $45,670 and $44,524; allowance for expected credit losses of $61 at June 30, 2020)	48,046		46,505
Fixed maturities, trading at fair value	97		113
Equity securities, at fair value	1,602		1,937
Investments accounted for using the equity method	1,781		1,688
Mortgage loans	1,475		1,329
Policy loans	158		164
Equity index call options	605		924
Real estate and other investments	279		278
Total cash and investments	56,741		55,252
Recoverables from reinsurers	3,476		3,415
Prepaid reinsurance premiums	733		678
Agents’ balances and premiums receivable	1,366		1,335
Deferred policy acquisition costs	818		1,037
Assets of managed investment entities	4,393		4,736
Other receivables	880		975
Variable annuity assets (separate accounts)	577		628
Other assets	1,676		1,867
Goodwill	207		207
Total assets	$	70,867	$	70,130

Liabilities and Equity:
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses	$	10,321	$	10,232
Unearned premiums	2,778		2,830
Annuity benefits accumulated	41,392		40,406
Life, accident and health reserves	606		612
Payable to reinsurers	746		814
Liabilities of managed investment entities	4,236		4,571
Long-term debt	1,912		1,473
Variable annuity liabilities (separate accounts)	577		628
Other liabilities	2,173		2,295
Total liabilities	64,741		63,861

Redeemable noncontrolling interests	—		—

Shareholders’ equity:
Common Stock, no par value — 200,000,000 shares authorized — 88,659,407 and 90,303,686 shares outstanding	89		90
Capital surplus	1,299		1,307
Retained earnings	3,685		4,009
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax	1,053		863
Total shareholders’ equity	6,126		6,269
Noncontrolling interests	—		—
Total equity	6,126		6,269
Total liabilities and equity	$	70,867	$	70,130

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF EARNINGS (UNAUDITED)

(In Millions, Except Per Share Data)


	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Revenues:
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums	$	1,184	$	1,200	$	2,393	$	2,373
Net investment income	468		580		1,012		1,122

Realized gains (losses) on securities	204		56		(347)		240

Income (loss) of managed investment entities:
Investment income	49		70		108		139
Loss on change in fair value of assets/liabilities	(5)		(2)		(48)		(2)
Other income	51		56		108		112
Total revenues	1,951		1,960		3,226		3,984

Costs and Expenses:
Property and casualty insurance:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses	771		723		1,478		1,415
Commissions and other underwriting expenses	409		426		829		825
Annuity benefits	426		339		702		650
Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses	(35)		33		78		61
Interest charges on borrowed money	23		17		40		33
Expenses of managed investment entities	38		59		86		114
Other expenses	101		104		183		214
Total costs and expenses	1,733		1,701		3,396		3,312
Earnings (loss) before income taxes	218		259		(170)		672
Provision (credit) for income taxes	51		50		(33)		137
Net earnings (loss), including noncontrolling interests	167		209		(137)		535
Less: Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests	(10)		(1)		(13)		(4)
Net Earnings (Loss) Attributable to Shareholders	$	177	$	210	$	(124)	$	539

Earnings (Loss) Attributable to Shareholders per Common Share:
Basic	$	1.98	$	2.34	$	(1.38)	$	6.02
Diluted	$	1.97	$	2.31	$	(1.38)	$	5.94
Average number of Common Shares:
Basic	89.7		89.7		90.0		89.6
Diluted	90.0		91.0		90.0		90.8

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (UNAUDITED)

(In Millions)


	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Net earnings (loss), including noncontrolling interests	$	167	$	209	$	(137)	$	535
Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax:
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:
Unrealized holding gains on securities arising during the period	1,021		356		156		740
Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings	(7)		(8)		12		(11)

Total net unrealized gains on securities	1,014		348		168		729
Net unrealized gains on cash flow hedges	3		18		30		29
Foreign currency translation adjustments	4		—		(6)		4

Other comprehensive income, net of tax	1,021		366		192		762
Total comprehensive income, net of tax	1,188		575		55		1,297
Less: Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests	(10)		—		(11)		(3)
Comprehensive income attributable to shareholders	$	1,198	$	575	$	66	$	1,300

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY (UNAUDITED)

(Dollars in Millions)


			Shareholders’ Equity																					Redeemable
		Common			Common Stock and Capital			Retained			Accumulated Other Comp.						Noncon- trolling			Total			Noncon- trolling
		Shares			Surplus			Earnings			Inc. (Loss)			Total			Interests			Equity			Interests
Balance at March 31, 2020	89,827,336		$	1,399		$	3,616		$	32		$	5,047		$	—		$	5,047		$	—
Net earnings (loss)	—		—			177			—			177			—			177			(10)
Other comprehensive income	—		—			—			1,021			1,021			—			1,021			—
Dividends ($0.45 per share)	—		—			(41)			—			(41)			—			(41)			—
Shares issued:
Exercise of stock options	5,250		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Restricted stock awards	—		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Other benefit plans	51,955		4			—			—			4			—			4			—
Dividend reinvestment plan	2,733		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Stock-based compensation expense	—		4			—			—			4			—			4			—
Shares acquired and retired	(1,194,236)		(19)			(57)			—			(76)			—			(76)			—
Shares exchanged — benefit plans	(540)		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Forfeitures of restricted stock	(33,091)		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Other	—		—			(10)			—			(10)			—			(10)			10
Balance at June 30, 2020	88,659,407		$	1,388		$	3,685		$	1,053		$	6,126		$	—		$	6,126		$	—

Balance at March 31, 2019	89,637,713		$	1,346		$	3,875		$	444		$	5,665		$	—		$	5,665		$	—
Net earnings (loss)	—		—			210			—			210			—			210			(1)
Other comprehensive income	—		—			—			365			365			—			365			1
Dividends ($1.90 per share)	—		—			(170)			—			(170)			—			(170)			—
Shares issued:
Exercise of stock options	247,753		11			—			—			11			—			11			—
Restricted stock awards	—		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Other benefit plans	30,081		3			—			—			3			—			3			—
Dividend reinvestment plan	7,596		1			—			—			1			—			1			—
Stock-based compensation expense	—		6			—			—			6			—			6			—

Shares exchanged — benefit plans	(3,519)		—			(1)			—			(1)			—			(1)			—
Forfeitures of restricted stock	(2,023)		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Other	—		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Balance at June 30, 2019	89,917,601		$	1,367		$	3,914		$	809		$	6,090		$	—		$	6,090		$	—

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY (UNAUDITED) — CONTINUED

(Dollars in Millions)


			Shareholders’ Equity																					Redeemable
		Common			Common Stock and Capital			Retained			Accumulated Other Comp.						Noncon- trolling			Total			Noncon- trolling
		Shares			Surplus			Earnings			Inc. (Loss)			Total			Interests			Equity			Interests
Balance at December 31, 2019	90,303,686		$	1,397		$	4,009		$	863		$	6,269		$	—		$	6,269		$	—
Cumulative effect of accounting change	—		—			7			—			7			—			7			—
Net loss	—		—			(124)			—			(124)			—			(124)			(13)
Other comprehensive income	—		—			—			190			190			—			190			2
Dividends ($0.90 per share)	—		—			(81)			—			(81)			—			(81)			—
Shares issued:
Exercise of stock options	209,343		9			—			—			9			—			9			—
Restricted stock awards	227,867		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Other benefit plans	66,496		5			—			—			5			—			5			—
Dividend reinvestment plan	4,350		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Stock-based compensation expense	—		10			—			—			10			—			10			—
Shares acquired and retired	(2,020,519)		(31)			(106)			—			(137)			—			(137)			—
Shares exchanged — benefit plans	(96,394)		(2)			(9)			—			(11)			—			(11)			—
Forfeitures of restricted stock	(35,422)		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Other	—		—			(11)			—			(11)			—			(11)			11
Balance at June 30, 2020	88,659,407		$	1,388		$	3,685		$	1,053		$	6,126		$	—		$	6,126		$	—

Balance at December 31, 2018	89,291,724		$	1,334		$	3,588		$	48		$	4,970		$	2		$	4,972		$	—
Net earnings (loss)	—		—			539			—			539			—			539			(4)
Other comprehensive income	—		—			—			761			761			—			761			1
Dividends ($2.30 per share)	—		—			(206)			—			(206)			—			(206)			—
Shares issued:
Exercise of stock options	400,006		17			—			—			17			—			17			—
Restricted stock awards	232,565		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Other benefit plans	41,143		4			—			—			4			—			4			—
Dividend reinvestment plan	9,489		1			—			—			1			—			1			—
Stock-based compensation expense	—		12			—			—			12			—			12			—

Shares exchanged — benefit plans	(46,989)		(1)			(4)			—			(5)			—			(5)			—
Forfeitures of restricted stock	(10,337)		—			—			—			—			—			—			—
Other	—		—			(3)			—			(3)			(2)			(5)			3
Balance at June 30, 2019	89,917,601		$	1,367		$	3,914		$	809		$	6,090		$	—		$	6,090		$	—

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS (UNAUDITED)

(In Millions)


	Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019
Operating Activities:
Net earnings (loss), including noncontrolling interests	$	(137)	$	535
Adjustments:
Depreciation and amortization	79		72
Annuity benefits	702		650
Realized (gains) losses on investing activities	346		(241)
Net sales of trading securities	11		—
Deferred annuity and life policy acquisition costs	(79)		(120)
Change in:
Reinsurance and other receivables	46		85
Other assets	211		(298)
Insurance claims and reserves	30		(92)
Payable to reinsurers	(68)		3
Other liabilities	(233)		329
Managed investment entities’ assets/liabilities	116		(3)
Other operating activities, net	63		(43)
Net cash provided by operating activities	1,087		877

Investing Activities:
Purchases of:
Fixed maturities	(6,121)		(3,761)
Equity securities	(324)		(80)
Mortgage loans	(152)		(43)
Equity index options and other investments	(501)		(467)
Real estate, property and equipment	(20)		(20)

Proceeds from:
Maturities and redemptions of fixed maturities	2,343		2,347
Repayments of mortgage loans	7		38
Sales of fixed maturities	2,777		459
Sales of equity securities	342		139
Sales and settlements of equity index options and other investments	404		329
Sales of real estate, property and equipment	4		2


Managed investment entities:
Purchases of investments	(603)		(697)
Proceeds from sales and redemptions of investments	540		702
Other investing activities, net	8		—
Net cash used in investing activities	(1,296)		(1,052)

Financing Activities:
Annuity receipts	2,097		2,744
Annuity surrenders, benefits and withdrawals	(1,641)		(1,668)
Ceded annuity receipts	(78)		—
Net transfers from variable annuity assets	28		28
Additional long-term borrowings	439		121


Retirements of managed investment entities’ liabilities	(46)		(5)
Issuances of Common Stock	12		19
Repurchases of Common Stock	(137)		—
Cash dividends paid on Common Stock	(81)		(205)

Net cash provided by financing activities	593		1,034
Net Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents	384		859
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period	2,314		1,515
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period	$	2,698	$	2,374

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

INDEX TO NOTES

Accounting Policies

Managed Investment Entities

Acquisition of Businesses

Goodwill and Other Intangibles

Segments of Operations

Long-Term Debt

Fair Value Measurements

Shareholders’ Equity

Investments

Income Taxes

Derivatives

Contingencies

Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs

Insurance

A. Accounting Policies

Basis of Presentation The accompanying consolidated financial statements for American Financial Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries (“AFG”) are unaudited; however, management believes that all adjustments (consisting only of normal recurring accruals unless otherwise disclosed herein) necessary for fair presentation have been made. The results of operations for interim periods are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for the year. The financial statements have been prepared in accordance with the instructions to Form 10-Q and, therefore, do not include all information and footnotes necessary to be in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”).

Certain reclassifications have been made to prior periods to conform to the current year’s presentation. All significant intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated. The results of operations of companies since their formation or acquisition are included in the consolidated financial statements. Events or transactions occurring subsequent to June 30, 2020, and prior to the filing of this Form 10-Q, have been evaluated for potential recognition or disclosure herein.

The preparation of the financial statements requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Changes in circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimates.

Fair Value Measurements Accounting standards define fair value as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability (an exit price) in an orderly transaction between market participants on the measurement date. The standards establish a hierarchy of valuation techniques based on whether the assumptions that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability (“inputs”) are observable or unobservable. Observable inputs reflect market data obtained from independent sources, while unobservable inputs reflect AFG’s assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability. AFG did not have any material nonrecurring fair value measurements in the first six months of 2020.

Credit Losses on Financial Instruments On January 1, 2020, AFG adopted Accounting Standards Update (“ASU”) 2016-13, Financial Instruments – Credit Losses: Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments, which provides a new loss model for determining credit-related impairments for financial instruments measured at amortized cost (mortgage loans, premiums receivable and reinsurance recoverables) and requires an entity to estimate the credit losses expected over the life of an exposure or pool of exposures. The estimate of expected credit losses considers historical information, current information, as well as reasonable and supportable forecasts, including estimates of prepayments. Expected credit losses, and subsequent increases or decreases in such expected losses, are recorded immediately through net earnings as an allowance that is deducted from the amortized cost basis of the financial asset, with the net carrying value of the financial asset presented on the balance sheet at the amount expected to be collected. AFG’s portfolio of mortgage loans crosses a wide variety of commercial properties with very strong loan to value ratios and no credit losses in recent years. In addition, the reinsurance used in AFG’s insurance operations is purchased from financially strong (highly rated) reinsurers and the Company has a long history of collecting premiums receivable through various economic cycles. At the date of adoption, the impact of adjusting AFG’s existing allowances for uncollectable mortgage loans, premiums receivable and reinsurance recoverables to the allowances calculated under the new guidance resulted in a reduction in the net allowance, which was recorded as the cumulative effect of an accounting change ($7 million increase in retained earnings at January 1, 2020).

The updated guidance also amended the current other-than-temporary impairment model for available for sale debt securities by requiring the recognition of impairments relating to credit losses through an allowance and limits the amount

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

of credit loss to the difference between a security’s amortized cost basis and its fair value. Subsequent increases or decreases in expected credit losses will be recorded immediately in net earnings through realized gains (losses).

Investments Equity securities other than those accounted for under the equity method are reported at fair value with holding gains and losses generally recorded in realized gains (losses) on securities. However, AFG records holding gains and losses on securities classified as “trading” under previous guidance, its small portfolio of limited partnerships and similar investments carried at fair value and certain other securities classified at purchase as “fair value through net investment income” in net investment income.

Fixed maturity securities classified as “available for sale” are reported at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included in AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Fixed maturity securities classified as “trading” are reported at fair value with changes in unrealized holding gains or losses during the period included in net investment income. Mortgage loans (net of any allowance) and policy loans are carried primarily at the aggregate unpaid balance.

Premiums and discounts on fixed maturity securities are amortized using the effective interest method. Mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) are amortized over a period based on estimated future principal payments, including prepayments. Prepayment assumptions are reviewed periodically and adjusted to reflect actual prepayments and changes in expectations.

Limited partnerships and similar investments are generally accounted for using the equity method of accounting. Under the equity method, AFG records its share of the earnings or losses of the investee based on when they are reported by the investee in its financial statements rather than in the period in which the investee declares a dividend. AFG’s share of the earnings or losses from equity method investments is generally recorded on a quarter lag due to the timing of the receipt of the investee’s financial statements. AFG’s equity in the earnings (losses) of limited partnerships and similar investments is included in net investment income.

Realized gains or losses on the disposal of fixed maturity securities are determined on the specific identification basis. When a decline in the value of an available for sale fixed maturity is considered to be other-than-temporary at the balance sheet date, an allowance for credit losses (impairment), including any write-off of accrued interest, is charged to earnings (included in realized gains (losses) on securities). If management can assert that it does not intend to sell the security and it is not more likely than not that it will have to sell it before recovery of its amortized cost basis (net of allowance), then the impairment allowance is separated into two components: (i) the amount related to credit losses (recorded in earnings) and (ii) the amount related to all other factors (recorded in other comprehensive income). The credit-related portion is measured by comparing a security’s amortized cost to the present value of its current expected cash flows discounted at its effective yield prior to the charge. If management intends to sell an impaired security, or it is more likely than not that it will be required to sell the security before recovery, an impairment is recorded in earnings to reduce the amortized cost (net of allowance) of that security to fair value. See “Credit Losses on Financial Instruments” above for a discussion of new guidance adopted on January 1, 2020.

Derivatives Derivatives included in AFG’s Balance Sheet are recorded at fair value. Changes in fair value of derivatives are included in earnings unless the derivatives are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges. Derivatives that do not qualify for hedge accounting under GAAP consist primarily of (i) components of certain fixed maturity securities (primarily interest-only and principal-only MBS) and (ii) the equity-based component of certain annuity products (included in annuity benefits accumulated) and related equity index options designed to be consistent with the characteristics of the liabilities and used to mitigate the risk embedded in those annuity products.

To qualify for hedge accounting, at the inception of a derivative contract, AFG formally documents the relationship between the terms of the hedge and the hedged items and its risk management objective. This documentation includes defining how hedge effectiveness and ineffectiveness will be measured on a retrospective and prospective basis.

Changes in the fair value of derivatives that are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges are recorded in AOCI and are reclassified into earnings when the variability of the cash flows from the hedged items impacts earnings. When the change in the fair value of a qualifying cash flow hedge is included in earnings, it is included in the same line item in the statement of earnings as the cash flows from the hedged item. AFG uses interest rate swaps that are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges to mitigate interest rate risk related to certain floating-rate securities included in AFG’s portfolio of fixed maturity securities.

Goodwill Goodwill represents the excess of cost of subsidiaries over AFG’s equity in their underlying net assets. Goodwill is not amortized, but is subject to an impairment test at least annually. An entity is not required to complete the

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

quantitative annual goodwill impairment test on a reporting unit if the entity elects to perform a qualitative analysis and determines that it is more likely than not that the reporting unit’s fair value exceeds its carrying amount.

Reinsurance Amounts recoverable from reinsurers are estimated in a manner consistent with the claim liability associated with the reinsured policies. AFG’s property and casualty insurance subsidiaries report as assets (i) the estimated reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses, including an estimate for losses incurred but not reported, and (ii) amounts paid or due to reinsurers applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. Payable to reinsurers includes ceded premiums due to reinsurers, as well as ceded premiums retained by AFG’s property and casualty insurance subsidiaries under contracts to fund ceded losses as they become due. AFG’s insurance subsidiaries also assume reinsurance from other companies. Earnings on reinsurance assumed is recognized based on information received from ceding companies.

An AFG subsidiary cedes life insurance policies to a third party on a funds withheld basis whereby the subsidiary retains the assets (securities) associated with the reinsurance contract. Interest is credited to the reinsurer based on the actual investment performance of the retained assets. This reinsurance contract is considered to contain an embedded derivative (that must be adjusted to fair value) because the yield on the payable is based on a specific block of the ceding company’s assets, rather than the overall creditworthiness of the ceding company. AFG determined that changes in the fair value of the underlying portfolio of fixed maturity securities is an appropriate measure of the value of the embedded derivative. The securities related to this contract are classified as “trading.” The adjustment to fair value on the embedded derivative offsets the investment income recorded on the adjustment to fair value of the related trading portfolio.

Certain reinsurance arrangements in AFG’s annuity operations do not transfer significant insurance risk and are therefore accounted for using the deposit method. This accounting treatment results in amounts paid by AFG to the reinsurer to be recorded as a deposit asset. The reinsurance deposit asset is adjusted as amounts are paid or received under the underlying contracts.

Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs (“DPAC”) Policy acquisition costs (principally commissions, premium taxes and certain underwriting and policy issuance costs) directly related to the successful acquisition or renewal of an insurance contract are deferred. DPAC also includes capitalized costs associated with sales inducements offered to fixed annuity policyholders such as enhanced interest rates and premium and persistency bonuses.

For the property and casualty companies, DPAC is limited based upon recoverability without any consideration for anticipated investment income and is charged against income ratably over the terms of the related policies. A premium deficiency is recognized if the sum of expected claims costs, claims adjustment expenses and unamortized acquisition costs exceed the related unearned premiums. A premium deficiency is first recognized by charging any unamortized acquisition costs to expense to the extent required to eliminate the deficiency. If the premium deficiency is greater than unamortized acquisition costs, a liability is accrued for the excess deficiency and reported with unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses.

DPAC related to annuities is deferred to the extent deemed recoverable and amortized, with interest, in relation to the present value of actual and expected gross profits on the policies. Expected gross profits consist principally of estimated future investment margin (estimated future net investment income less interest credited on policyholder funds) and surrender, mortality, and other life and annuity policy charges, less death, annuitization and guaranteed withdrawal benefits in excess of account balances and estimated future policy administration expenses. To the extent that realized gains and losses result in adjustments to the amortization of DPAC related to annuities, such adjustments are reflected as components of realized gains (losses) on securities.

DPAC related to traditional life and health insurance is amortized over the expected premium paying period of the related policies, in proportion to the ratio of annual premium revenues to total anticipated premium revenues. See “Life, Accident and Health Reserves” below for details on the impact of loss recognition on the accounting for traditional life and health insurance contracts.

DPAC includes the present value of future profits on business in force of annuity and life, accident and health insurance companies acquired (“PVFP”). PVFP represents the portion of the costs to acquire companies that is allocated to the value of the right to receive future cash flows from insurance contracts existing at the date of acquisition. PVFP is amortized with interest in relation to expected gross profits of the acquired policies for annuities and universal life products and in relation to the premium paying period for traditional life and health insurance products.

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

DPAC and certain other balance sheet amounts related to annuity and life businesses are also adjusted, net of tax, for the change in expense that would have been recorded if the unrealized gains (losses) from securities had actually been realized. These adjustments are included in unrealized gains (losses) on marketable securities, a component of AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet.

Managed Investment Entities A company is considered the primary beneficiary of, and therefore must consolidate, a variable interest entity (“VIE”) based primarily on its ability to direct the activities of the VIE that most significantly impact that entity’s economic performance and the obligation to absorb losses of, or receive benefits from, the entity that could potentially be significant to the VIE.

AFG manages, and has investments in, collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”) that are VIEs (see Note H — “Managed Investment Entities”). AFG has determined that it is the primary beneficiary of these CLOs because (i) its role as asset manager gives it the power to direct the activities that most significantly impact the economic performance of the CLOs and (ii) through its investment in the CLO debt tranches, it has exposure to CLO losses (limited to the amount AFG invested) and the right to receive CLO benefits that could potentially be significant to the CLOs.

Because AFG has no right to use the CLO assets and no obligation to pay the CLO liabilities, the assets and liabilities of the CLOs are shown separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. AFG has elected the fair value option for reporting on the CLO assets and liabilities to improve the transparency of financial reporting related to the CLOs. The net gain or loss from accounting for the CLO assets and liabilities at fair value is presented separately in AFG’s Statement of Earnings.

The fair values of a CLO’s assets may differ from the separately measured fair values of its liabilities even though the CLO liabilities only have recourse to the CLO assets. AFG has set the carrying value of the CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at a separately measured fair value. CLO earnings attributable to AFG’s shareholders are measured by the change in the fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs and management fees earned.

Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses The net liabilities stated for unpaid claims and for expenses of investigation and adjustment of unpaid claims represent management’s best estimate and are based upon (i) the accumulation of case estimates for losses reported prior to the close of the accounting period on direct business written; (ii) estimates received from ceding reinsurers and insurance pools and associations; (iii) estimates of unreported losses (including possible development on known claims) based on past experience; (iv) estimates based on experience of expenses for investigating and adjusting claims; and (v) the current state of the law and coverage litigation. Establishing reserves for asbestos, environmental and other mass tort claims involves considerably more judgment than other types of claims due to, among other things, inconsistent court decisions, an increase in bankruptcy filings as a result of asbestos-related liabilities, novel theories of coverage, and judicial interpretations that often expand theories of recovery and broaden the scope of coverage.

Loss reserve liabilities are subject to the impact of changes in claim amounts and frequency and other factors. Changes in estimates of the liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses are reflected in the statement of earnings in the period in which determined. Despite the variability inherent in such estimates, management believes that the liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses are adequate.

Annuity Benefits Accumulated Annuity receipts and benefit payments are recorded as increases or decreases in annuity benefits accumulated rather than as revenue and expense. Increases in this liability for interest credited are charged to annuity benefits expense and decreases for annuity policy charges are recorded in other income. For traditional fixed annuities, the liability for annuity benefits accumulated represents the account value that had accrued to the benefit of the policyholder as of the balance sheet date. For fixed-indexed annuities (“FIAs”), the liability for annuity benefits accumulated includes an embedded derivative that represents the estimated fair value of the index participation with the remaining component representing the discounted value of the guaranteed minimum contract benefits.

For certain products, annuity benefits accumulated also includes reserves for accrued persistency and premium bonuses, guaranteed withdrawals and excess benefits expected to be paid on future deaths and annuitizations (“EDAR”). The liabilities for EDAR and guaranteed withdrawals are accrued for and modified using assumptions consistent with those used in determining DPAC and DPAC amortization, except that amounts are determined in relation to the present value of total expected assessments. Total expected assessments consist principally of estimated future investment margin, surrender, mortality, and other life and annuity policy charges, and unearned revenues once they are recognized as income.

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

Annuity benefits accumulated also includes amounts advanced from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati.

Unearned Revenue Certain upfront policy charges on annuities are deferred as unearned revenue (included in other liabilities) and recognized in net earnings (included in other income) using the same assumptions and estimated gross profits used to amortize DPAC.

Life, Accident and Health Reserves Liabilities for future policy benefits under traditional life, accident and health policies are computed using the net level premium method. Computations are based on the original projections of investment yields, mortality, morbidity and surrenders and include provisions for unfavorable deviations unless a loss recognition event (premium deficiency) occurs. Claim reserves and liabilities established for accident and health claims are modified as necessary to reflect actual experience and developing trends.

For long-duration contracts (such as traditional life and long-term care policies), loss recognition occurs when, based on current expectations as of the measurement date, existing contract liabilities plus the present value of future premiums (including reasonably expected rate increases) are not expected to cover the present value of future claims payments and related settlement and maintenance costs (excluding overhead) as well as unamortized acquisition costs. If a block of business is determined to be in loss recognition, a charge is recorded in earnings in an amount equal to the excess of the present value of expected future claims costs and unamortized acquisition costs over existing reserves plus the present value of expected future premiums (with no provision for adverse deviation). The charge is recorded first to reduce unamortized acquisition costs and then as an additional reserve (if unamortized acquisition costs have been reduced to zero).

In addition, reserves for traditional life and long-term care policies are subject to adjustment for loss recognition charges that would have been recorded if the unrealized gains (losses) from securities had actually been realized. This adjustment is included in unrealized gains (losses) on marketable securities, a component of AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet.

Debt Issuance Costs Debt issuance costs related to AFG’s outstanding debt are presented in its Balance Sheet as a direct reduction in the carrying value of long-term debt and are amortized over the life of the related debt using the effective interest method as a component of interest expense. Debt issuance costs related to AFG’s revolving credit facilities are included in other assets in AFG’s Balance Sheet.

Variable Annuity Assets and Liabilities Separate accounts related to variable annuities represent the fair value of deposits invested in underlying investment funds on which AFG earns a fee. Investment funds are selected and may be changed only by the policyholder, who retains all investment risk.

AFG’s variable annuity contracts contain a guaranteed minimum death benefit (“GMDB”) to be paid if the policyholder dies before the annuity payout period commences. In periods of declining equity markets, the GMDB may exceed the value of the policyholder’s account. A GMDB liability is established for future excess death benefits using assumptions together with a range of reasonably possible scenarios for investment fund performance that are consistent with DPAC capitalization and amortization assumptions.

Leases On January 1, 2019, AFG adopted ASU 2016-02, which requires entities that lease assets for terms longer than one year to recognize assets and liabilities for the rights and obligations created by those leases on the balance sheet based on the present value of contractual cash flows. The adoption of the new guidance did not have a material effect on AFG’s results of operations or liquidity.

At June 30, 2020 AFG has a $184 million lease liability included in other liabilities and a lease right-of-use asset of $163 million included in other assets compared to $180 million and $158 million, respectively, at December 31, 2019.

Noncontrolling Interests For balance sheet purposes, noncontrolling interests represent the interests of shareholders other than AFG in consolidated entities. In the statement of earnings, net earnings and losses attributable to noncontrolling interests represents such shareholders’ interest in the earnings and losses of those entities. Noncontrolling interests that are redeemable at the option of the holder are presented separately in the mezzanine section of the balance sheet (between liabilities and equity).

Premium Recognition Property and casualty premiums are earned generally over the terms of the policies on a pro rata basis. Unearned premiums represent that portion of premiums written, which is applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. On reinsurance assumed from other insurance companies or written through various underwriting organizations, unearned premiums are based on information received from such companies and organizations. For

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

traditional life, accident and health products, premiums are recognized as revenue when legally collectible from policyholders. For interest-sensitive life and universal life products, premiums are recorded in a policyholder account, which is reflected as a liability. Revenue is recognized as amounts are assessed against the policyholder account for mortality coverage and contract expenses.

Income Taxes Deferred income taxes are calculated using the liability method. Under this method, deferred income tax assets and liabilities are determined based on differences between financial reporting and tax bases and are measured using enacted tax rates. A valuation allowance is established to reduce total deferred tax assets to an amount that will more likely than not be realized. The effect of a change in tax rates on deferred tax assets and liabilities is recorded in net earnings in the period that includes the enactment date.

AFG recognizes the tax benefits of uncertain tax positions only when the position is more likely than not to be sustained under examination by the appropriate taxing authority. Interest and penalties on AFG’s reserve for uncertain tax positions are recognized as a component of tax expense.

Stock-Based Compensation All share-based grants are recognized as compensation expense on a straight-line basis over their vesting periods based on their calculated fair value at the date of grant. AFG uses the Black Scholes pricing model to measure the fair value of employee stock options.

AFG records excess tax benefits or deficiencies for share-based payments through income tax expense in the statement of earnings. In addition, AFG accounts for forfeitures of awards when they occur.

Benefit Plans AFG provides retirement benefits to qualified employees of participating companies through the AFG 401(k) Retirement and Savings Plan, a defined contribution plan. AFG makes all contributions to the retirement fund portion of the plan and matches a percentage of employee contributions to the savings fund. Company contributions are expensed in the year for which they are declared. AFG and many of its subsidiaries provide health care and life insurance benefits to eligible retirees. AFG also provides postemployment benefits to former or inactive employees (primarily those on disability) who were not deemed retired under other company plans. The projected future cost of providing these benefits is expensed over the period employees earn such benefits.

Earnings Per Share Although basic earnings per share only considers shares of common stock outstanding during the period, the calculation of diluted earnings per share includes the following adjustments to weighted average common shares related to stock-based compensation plans: second quarter 2020 and 2019 — 0.3 million and 1.3 million; first six months of 2020 and 2019 — none and 1.2 million, respectively.

There were 0.6 million anti-dilutive potential common shares for the first six months of 2020 due to AFG’s net loss and no anti-dilutive potential common shares for the second quarter of 2020 or 2019 or the first six months of 2019.

Statement of Cash Flows For cash flow purposes, “investing activities” are defined as making and collecting loans and acquiring and disposing of debt or equity instruments, property and equipment and businesses. “Financing activities” include obtaining resources from owners and providing them with a return on their investments, borrowing money and repaying amounts borrowed. Annuity receipts, surrenders, benefits and withdrawals are also reflected as financing activities. All other activities are considered “operating.” Short-term investments having original maturities of three months or less when purchased are considered to be cash equivalents for purposes of the financial statements.

B. Acquisition of Businesses

Effective in June 2019, National Interstate, a property and casualty insurance subsidiary of AFG, entered into an agreement with Atlas Financial Holdings, Inc. (“AFH”) to become the exclusive underwriter of AFH’s paratransit book of business. National Interstate estimates that the majority of AFH’s $110 million paratransit business will be eligible for quotation under this arrangement following inception of the agreement. Under the terms of the agreement (as extended in 2020), AFH will act as an underwriting manager for National Interstate until at least August 2021 for fleets with seven or fewer vehicles and until November 2020 for accounts with eight or more vehicles, after which time National Interstate is entitled to acquire the renewal rights for the business from AFH for a purchase price equal to 15% of the in force gross written premiums at that date. The majority of the purchase price ultimately paid for the renewal rights will be recorded as an intangible renewal rights asset and will be amortized over the estimated life of the business acquired. In connection with the transaction, AFG was granted a five-year warrant to acquire approximately 2.4 million shares of AFH (19.9% at the acquisition date). The estimated fair value of the warrant was approximately $1 million at the date it was received.

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

On June 30, 2020, AFG acquired 100% of the indirect noncontrolling interest in Neon, its United Kingdom-based Lloyd’s insurer from certain former and current Neon executives for cash based on the nominal fair value of the interest acquired as determined by a third-party valuation firm.

C. Segments of Operations

AFG manages its business as three segments: (i) Property and casualty insurance, (ii) Annuity and (iii) Other, which includes holding company costs, revenues and costs of AFG’s limited insurance operations outside of property and casualty insurance and annuity segments, and operations attributable to the noncontrolling interests of the managed investment entities.

AFG reports its property and casualty insurance business in the following Specialty sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, which includes physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products and other commercial property coverages, (ii) Specialty casualty, which includes primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, specialty coverages in targeted markets, customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers’ compensation insurance, and (iii) Specialty financial, which includes risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions (including equipment leasing and collateral and lender-placed mortgage property insurance), fidelity and surety products and trade credit insurance. Premiums and underwriting profit included under Other specialty represent business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty sub-segments and amortization of deferred gains on retroactive reinsurance transactions related to the sales of businesses in prior years. AFG’s annuity business sells traditional fixed and indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions, broker-dealer and registered investment advisor markets. AFG’s reportable segments and their components were determined based primarily upon similar economic characteristics, products and services.

In December 2019, AFG initiated actions to exit the Lloyd’s of London insurance market, which included placing its Lloyd’s subsidiaries including its Lloyd’s Managing Agency, Neon Underwriting Ltd., into run-off. Neon and its predecessor, Marketform, have failed to achieve AFG’s profitability objectives since AFG’s purchase of Marketform in 2008. Beginning prospectively with the first quarter of 2020, the results for AFG’s Specialty casualty sub-segment exclude the run-off operations of Neon (“Neon exited lines”).

The following tables (in millions) show AFG’s revenues and earnings before income taxes by segment and sub-segment.


	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Revenues
Property and casualty insurance:
Premiums earned:
Specialty
Property and transportation	$	390	$	379	$	776	$	740
Specialty casualty	547		634		1,103		1,263
Specialty financial	144		151		300		297
Other specialty	42		36		82		73
Other lines (a)	61		—		132		—
Total premiums earned	1,184		1,200		2,393		2,373
Net investment income (b)	72		124		165		228
Other income	3		2		8		5
Total property and casualty insurance	1,259		1,326		2,566		2,606
Annuity:
Net investment income	384		451		806		886
Other income	30		30		65		58
Total annuity	414		481		871		944
Other	74		97		136		194
Total revenues before realized gains (losses)	1,747		1,904		3,573		3,744
Realized gains (losses) on securities	204		56		(347)		240

Total revenues	$	1,951	$	1,960	$	3,226	$	3,984

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

(a)Represents premiums earned in the Neon exited lines during the second quarter and first six months of 2020. Neon’s $89 million and $177 million in earned premiums during the second quarter and first six months of 2019, respectively, are included in the Specialty casualty sub-segment.

(b)Includes income of less than $1 million for the second quarter of 2020 and a loss of $6 million in the Neon exited lines in the first six months of 2020 (primarily from the change in fair value of equity securities).


	Three months ended June 30,						Six months ended June 30,
	2020		2019		2020		2019
Earnings (Loss) Before Income Taxes
Property and casualty insurance:
Underwriting:
Specialty
Property and transportation	$	33	$	4	$	60	$	43
Specialty casualty	27		47		79		83
Specialty financial	—		21		17		34
Other specialty	(6)		(12)		(13)		(12)
Other lines (a)	(45)		(1)		(47)		(2)
Total underwriting	9		59		96		146
Investment and other income, net (b)	65		115		149		210
Total property and casualty insurance	74		174		245		356
Annuity	(17)		71		12		161
Other (c)	(43)		(42)		(80)		(85)
Total earnings before realized gains (losses) and income taxes	14		203		177		432
Realized gains (losses) on securities	204		56		(347)		240

Total earnings (loss) before income taxes	$	218	$	259	$	(170)	$	672

(a)Includes an underwriting loss of $43 million in the second quarter of 2020 and $44 million in the first six months of 2020 in the Neon exited lines. Neon’s $4 million and $14 million underwriting losses in the second quarter and first six months of 2019, respectively, are included in the Specialty casualty sub-segment.

(b)Includes $1 million and $10 million in the second quarter and first six months of 2020, respectively, in net expenses from the Neon exited lines, before noncontrolling interest.

(c)Includes holding company interest and expenses.

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

D. Fair Value Measurements

Accounting standards for measuring fair value are based on inputs used in estimating fair value. The three levels of the hierarchy are as follows:

Level 1 — Quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets (markets in which transactions occur with sufficient frequency and volume to provide pricing information on an ongoing basis). AFG’s Level 1 financial instruments consist primarily of publicly traded equity securities, highly liquid government bonds for which quoted market prices in active markets are available and short-term investments of managed investment entities.

Level 2 — Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in inactive markets (markets in which there are few transactions, the prices are not current, price quotations vary substantially over time or among market makers, or in which little information is released publicly); and valuations based on other significant inputs that are observable in active markets. AFG’s Level 2 financial instruments include separate account assets, corporate and municipal fixed maturity securities, asset-backed securities (“ABS”), mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), certain non-affiliated common stocks, equity index options and investments of managed investment entities priced using observable inputs. Level 2 inputs include benchmark yields, reported trades, corroborated broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads and benchmark securities. When non-binding broker quotes can be corroborated by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs, they are classified as Level 2.

Level 3 — Valuations derived from market valuation techniques generally consistent with those used to estimate the fair values of Level 2 financial instruments in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable or when the market for a security exhibits significantly less liquidity relative to markets supporting Level 2 fair value measurements. The unobservable inputs may include management’s own assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use based on the best information available at the valuation date. Financial instruments whose fair value is estimated based on non-binding broker quotes or internally developed using significant inputs not based on, or corroborated by, observable market information are classified as Level 3.

As discussed in Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities,” AFG has set the carrying value of its CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at separately measured fair values. As a result, the CLO liabilities are categorized within the fair value hierarchy on the same basis (proportionally) as the related CLO assets. Since the portion of the CLO liabilities allocated to Level 3 is derived from the fair value of the CLO assets, these amounts are excluded from the progression of Level 3 financial instruments.

AFG’s management is responsible for the valuation process and uses data from outside sources (including nationally recognized pricing services and broker/dealers) in establishing fair value. AFG’s internal investment professionals are a group of approximately 20 analysts whose primary responsibility is to manage AFG’s investment portfolio. These professionals monitor individual investments as well as overall industries and are active in the financial markets on a daily basis. The group is led by AFG’s chief investment officer, who reports directly to one of AFG’s Co-CEOs. Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, the Company communicates directly with the pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the service to value specific securities.

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

Assets and liabilities measured and carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions):


	Level 1		Level 2		Level 3		Total
June 30, 2020
Assets:
Available for sale (“AFS”) fixed maturities:
U.S. Government and government agencies	$	167	$	28	$	15	$	210
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		6,844		107		6,951
Foreign government	—		184		—		184
Residential MBS	—		3,066		156		3,222
Commercial MBS	—		856		33		889
Collateralized loan obligations	—		4,300		207		4,507
Other asset-backed securities	—		5,987		1,328		7,315
Corporate and other	28		23,215		1,525		24,768
Total AFS fixed maturities	195		44,480		3,371		48,046
Trading fixed maturities	1		96		—		97
Equity securities	1,075		75		452		1,602
Equity index call options	—		605		—		605
Assets of managed investment entities (“MIE”)	151		4,225		17		4,393
Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*)	—		577		—		577
Other assets — derivatives	—		124		—		124
Total assets accounted for at fair value	$	1,422	$	50,182	$	3,840	$	55,444
Liabilities:
Liabilities of managed investment entities	$	145	$	4,074	$	17	$	4,236
Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated	—		—		3,675		3,675
Other liabilities — derivatives	—		10		—		10
Total liabilities accounted for at fair value	$	145	$	4,084	$	3,692	$	7,921

December 31, 2019
Assets:
Available for sale fixed maturities:
U.S. Government and government agencies	$	151	$	43	$	15	$	209
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		6,858		105		6,963
Foreign government	—		172		—		172
Residential MBS	—		2,987		173		3,160
Commercial MBS	—		892		35		927
Collateralized loan obligations	—		4,265		15		4,280
Other asset-backed securities	—		5,842		1,286		7,128
Corporate and other	29		21,879		1,758		23,666
Total AFS fixed maturities	180		42,938		3,387		46,505
Trading fixed maturities	2		111		—		113
Equity securities	1,433		67		437		1,937
Equity index call options	—		924		—		924
Assets of managed investment entities	213		4,506		17		4,736
Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*)	—		628		—		628
Other assets — derivatives	—		50		—		50
Total assets accounted for at fair value	$	1,828	$	49,224	$	3,841	$	54,893
Liabilities:
Liabilities of managed investment entities	$	206	$	4,349	$	16	$	4,571
Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated	—		—		3,730		3,730
Other liabilities — derivatives	—		10		—		10
Total liabilities accounted for at fair value	$	206	$	4,359	$	3,746	$	8,311

(*)Variable annuity liabilities equal the fair value of variable annuity assets.

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

Approximately 7% of the total assets carried at fair value at June 30, 2020, were Level 3 assets. Approximately 37% ($1.40 billion) of the Level 3 assets were priced using non-binding broker quotes, for which there is a lack of transparency as to the inputs used to determine fair value. Details as to the quantitative inputs are neither provided by the brokers nor otherwise reasonably obtainable by AFG.

Internally developed Level 3 asset fair values represent approximately $1.87 billion at June 30, 2020. Of this amount, approximately $736 million relates to fixed maturity securities that were priced using management’s best estimate of an appropriate credit spread over the treasury yield (of a similar duration) to discount future expected cash flows using a third-party model. The credit spread applied by management is the significant unobservable input. For this group of 41 securities, the average spread used was 389 basis points over the reference treasury yield and the spreads ranged from 53 basis points to 1,253 basis points (approximately 70% of the spreads were between 200 and 700 basis points). Had management used higher spreads, the fair value of this group of securities would have been lower. Conversely, if the spreads used were lower, the fair values would have been higher. For the remainder of the internally developed prices, any justifiable changes in unobservable inputs used to determine fair value would not have resulted in a material change in AFG’s financial position.

The derivatives embedded in AFG’s fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity liabilities are measured using a discounted cash flow approach and had a fair value of $3.68 billion at June 30, 2020. The following table presents information about the unobservable inputs used by management in determining fair value of these Level 3 liabilities. See Note F — “Derivatives.”

Unobservable Input

Range

Adjustment for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk

0.2% – 3.5% over the risk-free rate

Risk margin for uncertainty in cash flows

0.80% reduction in the discount rate

Surrenders

4% – 21% of indexed account value

Partial surrenders

2% – 9% of indexed account value

Annuitizations

0.1% – 1% of indexed account value

Deaths

1.9% – 10.7% of indexed account value

Budgeted option costs

2.5% – 3.3% of indexed account value

The range of adjustments for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk is based on the Moody’s corporate A2 bond index and reflects credit spread variations across the yield curve. The range of projected surrender rates reflects the specific surrender charges and other features of AFG’s individual fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity products with an expected range of 7% to 10% in the majority of future calendar years (4% to 21% over all periods). Increasing the budgeted option cost or risk margin for uncertainty in cash flow assumptions in the table above would increase the fair value of the fixed-indexed and variable-indexed annuity embedded derivatives, while increasing any of the other unobservable inputs in the table above would decrease the fair value of the embedded derivatives.

Table of Contents

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED

Changes in balances of Level 3 financial assets and liabilities carried at fair value during the second quarter and first six months of 2020 and 2019 are presented below (in millions). The transfers into and out of Level 3 were due to changes in the availability of market observable inputs. All transfers are reflected in the table at fair value as of the end of the reporting period.


				Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
			Balance at March 31, 2020			Net earnings (loss)			Other comprehensive income (loss)			Purchases and issuances			Sales and settlements			Transfer into Level 3			Transfer out of Level 3			Balance at June 30, 2020
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	15		$	1		$	(1)		$	—		$	—		$	—		$	—		$	15
State and municipal	105			—			5			—			(1)			—			(2)			107
Residential MBS	163			—			4			—			(4)			—			(7)			156
Commercial MBS	32			1			—			—			—			—			—			33
Collateralized loan obligations	168			(3)			13			—			—			29			—			207
Other asset-backed securities	1,030			—			4			198			(25)			121			—			1,328
Corporate and other	1,548			1			47			48			(20)			4			(103)			1,525
Total AFS fixed maturities	3,061			—			72			246			(50)			154			(112)			3,371
Equity securities	436			(1)			—			17			—			—			—			452
Assets of MIE	16			(1)			—			—			—			2			—			17
Total Level 3 assets	$	3,513		$	(2)		$	72		$	263		$	(50)		$	156		$	(112)		$	3,840

Embedded derivatives	$	(3,099)		$	(601)		$	—		$	(46)		$	71		$	—		$	—		$	(3,675)
Total Level 3 liabilities (*)	$	(3,099)		$	(601)		$	—		$	(46)		$	71		$	—		$	—		$	(3,675)


				Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
			Balance at March 31, 2019			Net earnings (loss)			Other comprehensive income (loss)			Purchases and issuances			Sales and settlements			Transfer into Level 3			Transfer out of Level 3			Balance at June 30, 2019
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	8		$	—		$	—		$	—		$	—		$	—		$	—		$	8
State and municipal	63			—			2			—			(1)			18			—			82
Residential MBS	169			4			—			—			(4)			2			(32)			139
Commercial MBS	55			2			—			—			(2)			—			(5)			50
Collateralized loan obligations	37			—			—			—			—			13			—			50
Other asset-backed securities	633			—			3			17			(18)			—			(268)			367
Corporate and other	2,346			—			20			229			(161)			2			(422)			2,014
Total AFS fixed maturities	3,311			6			25			246			(186)			35			(727)			2,710
Equity securities	354			(1)			—			19			(1)			6			—			377
Assets of MIE	20			(1)