AMERISAFE INC - Annual Report: 2022 (Form 10-K)

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, DC 20549

FORM 10-K

FOR THE FISCAL YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2022

or

FOR THE TRANSITION PERIOD FROM TO

Commission File Number: 001-12251

AMERISAFE, INC.

(Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (337) 463-9052

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act: None

Indicate by check mark if the Registrant is a well-known seasoned issuer, as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act. Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark if the Registrant is not required to file reports pursuant to Section 13 or Section 15(d) of the Act. Yes ☐ No ☒

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant: (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the Registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the Registrant was required to submit such files). Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company, or an emerging growth company. See the definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer”, “smaller reporting company” and “emerging growth company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has filed a report on and attestation to its management’s assessment of the effectiveness of its internal control over financial reporting under section 404(b) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (15 U.S.C. 7262(b)) by the registered public accounting firm that prepared or issued its audit report. Yes ☒ No ☐

If securities are registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act, indicate by check mark whether the financial statements of the registrant included in the filing reflect the correction of an error to previously issued financial statements. ☐

Indicate by check mark whether any of those error corrections are restatements that required a recovery analysis of incentive-based compensation received by any of the registrant’s executive officers during the relevant recovery period pursuant to §240.10D-1(b). ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes ☐ No ☒

The aggregate market value of the voting common stock held by non-affiliates of the Registrant as of June 30, 2022 the last business day of the Registrant’s most recently completed second fiscal quarter was approximately $991.4 million, based upon the closing price of the shares on the NASDAQ Global Select Market on that date.

As of February 15, 2023, there were 19,155,873 shares of the Registrant’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share, outstanding.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This report contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. You should not place undue reliance on these statements. These forward-looking statements include statements that reflect the current views of our senior management with respect to our financial performance and future events with respect to our business and the insurance industry in general. Statements that include the words “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “project,” “forecast,” “estimate,” “may,” “should,” “anticipate” and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements address matters that involve risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. We believe that these factors include, but are not limited to, the following:

The foregoing factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read together with the other cautionary statements in this report, and under the caption “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of this report. If one or more events related to these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or if our underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual results may differ materially from what we anticipate.

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PART I

Item 1. Business.

Overview

We are a specialty provider of workers’ compensation insurance focused on small to mid-sized employers engaged in hazardous industries, principally construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime. Since commencing operations in 1986, we have gained significant experience underwriting the complex workers’ compensation exposures inherent in these industries. We provide coverage to employers under state and federal workers’ compensation laws. These laws prescribe wage replacement and medical care benefits that employers are obligated to provide to their employees who are injured in the course and scope of their employment. Our workers’ compensation insurance policies provide benefits to injured employees for, among other things, temporary or permanent disability, death and medical and hospital expenses. The benefits payable and the duration of those benefits are set by state or federal law. The benefits vary by jurisdiction, the nature and severity of the injury and the wages of the employee. The employer, who is the policyholder, pays the premiums for coverage.

Hazardous industry employers tend to have less frequent but more severe claims as compared to employers in other industries due to the nature of their businesses. Injuries that occur are often severe in nature including death, dismemberment, paraplegia and quadriplegia. As a result, employers engaged in hazardous industries pay substantially higher than average rates for workers’ compensation insurance compared to employers in other industries, as measured per payroll dollar. The higher premium rates are due to the nature of the work performed and the inherent workplace danger of our target policyholders. For example, our construction employers on average paid premium rates equal to $4.21 per $100 of payroll to obtain workers’ compensation coverage for all of their employees in 2022.

We employ a proactive, disciplined approach to underwriting employers and providing comprehensive services intended to lessen the overall incidence and cost of workplace injuries. We provide safety services at employers’ workplaces as a vital component of our underwriting process and to promote safer workplaces. We utilize intensive claims management practices that we believe permit us to reduce the overall cost of our claims. In addition, our premium audit services help ensure that our policyholders pay the appropriate premiums required under the terms of their policies and enable us to monitor payroll patterns that cause underwriting, safety or fraud concerns.

We believe that the higher premiums typically paid by our policyholders, together with our disciplined underwriting and safety, claims and audit services, provide us with the opportunity to earn attractive returns on equity.

AMERISAFE, Inc. is an insurance holding company, incorporated in Texas in 1985. We began operations in 1986 by focusing on workers’ compensation insurance for logging contractors in the southeast United States. Beginning in 1994, we expanded our focus to include the other hazardous industries we serve today. Two of our three insurance subsidiaries, American Interstate Insurance Company (AIIC) and Silver Oak Casualty, Inc. (SOCI), are domiciled in Nebraska. Our other insurance subsidiary, American Interstate Insurance Company of Texas (AIICTX), is domiciled in Texas. All three insurance subsidiaries carry an A.M. Best rating of “A” (Excellent).

Competitive Advantages

We believe we have the following competitive advantages:

Focus on Hazardous Industries. We have extensive experience insuring employers engaged in hazardous industries and have a history of profitably underwriting these industries. Our specialized knowledge of these hazardous industries helps us better serve our policyholders, which leads to greater employer loyalty and policy retention. Our policy renewal rate on voluntary business that we elected to quote for renewal was 93.8% in 2022.

Focus on Small to Mid-Sized Employers. We believe large insurance companies generally do not target small to mid-sized employers in hazardous industries due to their smaller premium sizes, types of operations, mobile workforces and extensive service needs. We provide these employers enhanced services, including premium payment plans to better match premium payments with our policyholders’ payroll costs and cash flow.

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Knowledgeable, Dedicated Employees. We deliver an exceptional product with integrity through professional, knowledgeable and dedicated employees. Service is a distinguishing factor for the Company and the level of that service is dependent on the expertise and caring culture of our employees.

Specialized Underwriting Expertise. Based on our 37-year history of insuring employers engaged in hazardous industries, we have developed industry specific risk analysis and rating tools that support our underwriters in risk selection and pricing. We are highly disciplined when quoting and binding new and renewal business. We do not delegate underwriting authority to agencies, marketers or to any other third parties that sell our insurance.

Comprehensive Safety Services. We provide proactive safety reviews of employers’ worksites, which are often located in rural areas. These safety reviews are a vital component of our underwriting process and also assist our policyholders in loss prevention, and encourage safer workplaces by deploying experienced field safety professionals (FSPs) to our policyholders’ worksites. In 2022, above 90% of our new voluntary business policyholders were subject to pre-quotation safety inspections. Additionally, we perform periodic on-site safety surveys for our voluntary business policyholders.

Proactive Claims Management. Our employees manage substantially all of our open claims in-house, utilizing intensive claims management practices that emphasize a personalized approach, as well as quality, cost-effective medical treatment. As of December 31, 2022, open indemnity claims per field case manager (FCM) averaged 47 claims, which we believe is significantly less than the industry average. We also believe our claims management practices allow us to achieve a more favorable claim outcome, accelerate an employee’s return to work, lessen the likelihood of litigation and more rapidly close claims, all of which ultimately lead to lower overall claim costs.

Efficient Operating Platform. Through extensive cost management initiatives, we maintain one of the most efficient operations in the workers’ compensation industry. In 2022, our expense ratio was 26.5%. We believe that our expense ratio is substantially lower than that of our competitors, which gives us a greater opportunity to generate underwriting profit.

Strategy

We intend to produce favorable returns on equity and increase our book value per share adjusted for dividends paid to shareholders using the following strategies:

Focus on Underwriting Profitability. We intend to maintain our underwriting discipline throughout market cycles with the objective of remaining profitable. Our strategy is to focus on underwriting workers’ compensation insurance in hazardous industries and to maintain adequate rate levels commensurate with the risks we underwrite. We will also continue to strive for improved risk selection and pricing, as well as reduced frequency and severity of claims through comprehensive workplace safety reviews, effective medical cost containment measures and rapid closing of claims through personal, direct contact with our policyholders and their employees.

Increase Market Penetration. Based on data received from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) we do not have more than 4.9% of the market share in any state we serve. As a result, we believe we have the opportunity to increase market penetration in each of the states in which we currently operate. Competition in our target markets is fragmented by state, employer size and industry. We believe that our specialized underwriting expertise, use of data, and safety, claims and audit services position us to profitably increase our market share in our existing principal markets, with minimal increase in field service employees.

Prudent and Opportunistic Geographic Expansion. While we actively market our insurance in 27 states, 46.5% of our voluntary in-force premiums were generated in the five states where we derived 5.0% or more of our gross premiums written in 2022. We are licensed in an additional 20 states, the District of Columbia and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Our existing licenses and rate filings will expedite our ability to write policies in these markets when we decide it is prudent to do so.

Capitalize on Development of Information Technology Systems. We believe our underwriting and agency management system, GEAUX, along with our customized operational system, ICAMS, and the analytical data warehouse that ICAMS feeds, significantly enhance our ability to select risk, write profitable business and cost-effectively administer our billing, claims and audit functions.

Maintain Capital Strength. We plan to manage our capital to achieve our profitability goals while striving for optimal operating leverage for our insurance company subsidiaries. To accomplish this objective, we intend to maintain underwriting profitability throughout market cycles, optimize our use of reinsurance, deploy appropriate capital management tools, including paying dividends to shareholders, and produce an appropriate risk adjusted return on our investment portfolio.

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Industry

Overview. Workers’ compensation is a statutory system under which an employer is required to pay for its employees’ medical, disability, vocational rehabilitation and death benefit costs for work-related injuries or illnesses. Most employers satisfy this requirement by purchasing workers’ compensation insurance. The principal concept underlying workers’ compensation laws is that employees injured in the course and scope of their employment have only the legal remedies available under workers’ compensation laws and do not have any other recourse against their employer. An employer’s obligation to pay workers’ compensation does not depend on any negligence or wrongdoing on the part of the employer and exists even for injuries that result from the negligence or fault of another person, a co-employee, or, in most instances, the injured employee.

Workers’ compensation insurance policies generally provide that the insurance carrier will pay all benefits that the insured employer may become obligated to pay under applicable workers’ compensation laws. Each state has a regulatory and adjudicatory system that quantifies the level of wage replacement to be paid, determines the level of medical care required to be provided and the cost of temporary or permanent impairment and specifies the options in selecting medical providers available to the injured employee or the employer. These state laws generally require two types of benefits for injured employees: (1) medical benefits, which include expenses related to the diagnosis and treatment of the injury, as well as any required rehabilitation, and (2) indemnity payments, which consist of temporary wage replacement, permanent disability payments and death benefits to surviving family members. To fulfill these mandated financial obligations, virtually all employers are required to purchase workers’ compensation insurance or, if permitted by state law or approved by the U.S. Department of Labor, to self-insure. The employers may purchase workers’ compensation insurance from a private insurance carrier, a state-sanctioned assigned risk pool, or a self-insurance fund, which is an entity that allows employers to obtain workers’ compensation coverage on a pooled basis, typically subjecting each employer to joint and several liability for the entire fund.

Workers’ compensation was the sixth-largest property and casualty insurance line in the United States in 2021, according to the National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc., the NCCI. Direct premiums written in 2021 for the workers’ compensation insurance industry were $52 billion, and direct premiums written for the property and casualty industry as a whole were $793 billion. According to the most recent market data reported by the NCCI, which is the official rating bureau in the majority of states in which we are licensed, total premiums reported for the specific occupational class codes for which we underwrite business were $17 billion.

Policyholders

As of December 31, 2022, we had more than 8,100 voluntary business policyholders with an average annual workers’ compensation policy written premium of $29,620. As of December 31, 2022, our ten largest voluntary business policyholders accounted for 2% of our in-force premiums. Our policy renewal rate on voluntary business that we elected to quote for renewal was 93.8% in 2022, 93.5% in 2021, and 94.4% in 2020.

In addition to our voluntary workers’ compensation business, we assume reinsurance premiums from mandatory pooling arrangements, and in 2022 we underwrote workers’ compensation policies for employers assigned to us, in each case to fulfill our obligations under residual market programs implemented by the states in which we operate. Our assigned risk business fulfilled our statutory obligation to participate in residual market plans in three states. See “—Regulation—Residual Market Programs” below. For the year ended December 31, 2022, our assigned risk business accounted for 1.1% of our gross premiums written, and our assumed premiums from mandatory pooling arrangements accounted for 2.5% of our gross premiums written.

Targeted Industries

We provide workers’ compensation insurance primarily to employers in the following targeted hazardous industries:

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Our gross premiums are derived from:

Gross premiums written during the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, and the allocation of those premiums among the hazardous industries we target are presented in the table below.

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Geographic Distribution

We are licensed to provide workers’ compensation insurance in 47 states, the District of Columbia and the U.S. Virgin Islands. We operate on a geographically diverse basis with 11.8% or less of our gross premiums written in 2022 derived from any one state. The table below identifies, for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, the states in which the percentage of our gross premiums written exceeded 3.0% for any of the three years presented.

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Sales and Marketing

We sell our workers’ compensation insurance through independent agencies (including retail and wholesale brokers and agents). As of December 31, 2022, our insurance was sold through more than 2,300 independent agencies and our wholly-owned insurance agency subsidiary, Amerisafe General Agency, which is licensed in 30 states. We are selective in establishing and maintaining relationships with independent agencies. We seek to do business with those agencies that provide quality application flow from companies operating in our target industries and classes that are reasonably likely to accept our quotes. We compensate these agencies by paying a commission based on the premium collected from the policyholder. Neither our independent agencies nor our insurance agency subsidiary has authority to underwrite or bind coverage. We do not pay contingent commissions.

As of December 31, 2022, independent agencies accounted for 97.9% of our voluntary in-force premiums. No single independent agency accounted for more than 1.1% of our voluntary in-force premiums at that date.

Underwriting

Our underwriting strategy is to focus on employers in certain hazardous industries that operate in those states where our underwriting efforts are the most profitable and efficient. We analyze each prospective policyholder on its own merits relative to known industry trends and statistical data. Our underwriting guidelines specify that we do not write workers’ compensation insurance for certain hazardous activities, including sub-surface mining and manufacturing of ammunition or fireworks.

Underwriting is a multi-step process that begins with the receipt of an application from one of our agencies. We initially review the application to confirm that the prospective policyholder meets certain established criteria, including that the prospective policyholder is engaged in one of our targeted hazardous industries and industry classes and operates in the states we target. If the application satisfies these criteria, the application is forwarded to our underwriting department for further review.

Our underwriting department reviews the application to determine if the application meets our underwriting criteria and whether all required information has been provided. If additional information is required, the underwriting department requests additional information from the agency submitting the application. Once this initial review process is complete, our underwriting department requests that a pre-quotation safety inspection be performed in most cases. In 2022, 90.9% of our new voluntary business policyholders were inspected prior to our offering a premium quote.

After the pre-quotation safety inspection has been completed, our underwriting professionals review the results of the inspection to determine if a quote should be made and, if so, prepare the quote. The quote must be reviewed and approved by our underwriting department before the quote is delivered to the agency.

Pricing

In the majority of states, workers’ compensation insurance rates are based upon published “loss costs.” Loss costs are derived from wage and loss data reported by insurers to the state’s statistical agent, which in most states is the NCCI. The state agent then promulgates loss costs for specific job descriptions or class codes. Insurers file requests for adoption of a loss cost multiplier (LCM) to be applied to the loss costs to support operating expenses and profit margins. In addition, most states allow pricing flexibility above and below the filed LCM, within certain limits.

We obtain approval of our rates, including our LCMs, from state regulatory authorities. To maintain rates at profitable levels, we regularly monitor and adjust our LCMs. The effective LCM for our voluntary business was 1.52 for policy year 2022, 1.53 for policy year 2021, and 1.58 for policy year 2020. If we are unable to charge rates in a particular state or industry to produce satisfactory results, we seek to control and reduce our premium volume in that state or industry and redeploy our capital in other states or industries that offer greater opportunity to earn an underwriting profit.

Safety

Our safety inspection process begins with a request from our underwriting department to perform a pre-quotation safety inspection. Our safety inspections focus on a prospective policyholder’s operations, loss exposures and existing safety controls to prevent potential losses. The factors considered in our inspection include employee experience, turnover, training, previous loss history and corrective actions, and workplace conditions, including equipment condition and, where appropriate, use of fall protection, respiratory protection or other safety devices. Our FSPs typically travel to employers’ worksites to perform these safety inspections. These initial inspections allow our underwriting professionals to make decisions on both insurability and pricing. In certain circumstances, we will agree to provide workers’ compensation insurance only if the employer agrees to implement and maintain the

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safety management practices that we recommend. In 2022, above 90% of our new voluntary business policyholders were inspected prior to our offering a premium quote. The remaining voluntary business policies were not pre-quote inspected for a variety of reasons, including instances where the prospective policyholder was previously insured by us or previously inspected by us.

After an employer becomes a policyholder, we continue to emphasize workplace safety through periodic workplace visits, assisting the policyholder in designing and implementing enhanced safety management programs, providing safety-related information and conducting rigorous post-accident management. Generally, we may cancel or decline to renew an insurance policy if the policyholder does not implement or maintain reasonable safety management practices that we recommend.

Claims

We have structured our claims operation to provide immediate, intensive and personal management of claims to guide injured employees through medical treatment, rehabilitation and recovery, with the primary goal of returning the injured employee to work as promptly as practicable and at maximum medical improvement. We seek to limit the number of claim disputes with injured employees through early intervention in the claims process. Where possible, we purchase annuities on longer life claims to close these claims, while still providing an appropriate level of benefits to injured employees. While we seek to promptly settle valid claims, we also aggressively defend against claims we consider to be non-meritorious.

Our FCMs are located in the geographic areas where our policyholders are based. We believe the presence of our FCMs in the field enhances our ability to guide an injured employee to the appropriate conclusion in a friendly, dignified and supportive manner. Our FCMs have broad authority to manage claims from occurrence of a workplace injury through resolution, including authority to retain many different medical providers at our expense. Such providers comprise not only our recommended medical providers, but also nurse case managers, independent medical examiners, vocational specialists, rehabilitation specialists and other specialty providers of medical services necessary to achieve a quality outcome.

Following notification of a workplace injury, an FCM will contact the policyholder, the injured employee and/or the treating physician to determine the nature and severity of the injury. If a serious injury occurs, the FCM will promptly visit the injured employee or the employee’s family members to discuss the benefits provided. The FCM will also visit the treating physician to discuss the proposed treatment plan. Our FCM assists the injured employee in receiving appropriate medical treatment and encourages the use of our recommended medical providers and facilities. For example, our FCM may suggest that a treating physician refer an injured worker to another physician or treatment facility that we believe has had positive outcomes for other workers with similar injuries. We actively monitor the number of open cases handled by a single FCM in order to maintain focus on each specific injured employee. As of December 31, 2022, we averaged 47 open indemnity claims per FCM, which we believe is significantly less than the industry average.

Locating our FCMs in the field also allows us to build professional relationships with local medical providers. In selecting medical providers, we rely, in part, on the recommendations of our FCMs who have developed professional relationships within their geographic areas. We also seek input from our policyholders and other contacts in the markets that we serve. While cost factors are considered in selecting medical providers, we consider the most important factor in the selection process to be the medical provider’s ability to achieve a quality outcome. We define quality outcome as the injured worker’s rapid, conclusive recovery and return to sustained, full capacity employment.

Premium Audits

We conduct premium audits on all of our voluntary business policyholders annually upon the expiration of each policy, including when the policy is renewed. The purpose of these audits is to verify that policyholders have accurately reported their payroll expenses and employee job classifications, and therefore, have paid us the premium required under the terms of their policies. In addition to annual audits, we selectively perform interim audits on new business and on certain classes of business if significant or unusual claims are filed or if the monthly reports submitted by a policyholder reflect a payroll pattern or other aberrations that cause underwriting, safety or fraud concerns. We also mitigate potential losses from under-reporting of premium, delinquent, or

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non-payment of premium by collecting a deposit from the policyholder at the inception of the policy, typically representing 15% of the total estimated annual premium.

Loss Reserves

We record reserves for estimated losses under insurance policies that we write and for loss adjustment expenses related to the investigation and settlement of policy claims. Our reserves for loss and loss adjustment expenses represent the estimated cost of all reported and unreported loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred and unpaid as of a given point in time.

In establishing our reserves, we review the results of analyses using actuarial methodologies that utilize historical loss data from our 37 years of underwriting workers’ compensation insurance. In evaluating the results of those analyses, our management also uses substantial judgment in considering other factors that are not considered in these actuarial analyses. These actuarial methodologies and subjective factors are described in more detail below. Our process and methodology for estimating reserves applies to both our voluntary and assigned risk business, but does not include our reserves for mandatory pooling arrangements. We record reserves for mandatory pooling arrangements as those reserves are reported to us by the pool administrators. We do not use loss discounting when we determine our reserves, which would involve recognizing the time value of money and offsetting estimates of future payments by future expected investment income.

When a claim is reported, we establish an initial case reserve for the estimated amount of our loss based on our estimate of the most likely outcome of the claim at that time. Generally, that case reserve is established within 14 days after the claim is reported and consists of anticipated medical costs, indemnity costs and specific adjustment expenses, which we refer to as defense and cost containment expenses (DCC). The most complex claims, involving severe injuries, may take a considerable period of time for us to establish a more precise estimate of the most likely outcome of the claim. At any point in time, the amount paid on a claim, plus the reserve for future amounts to be paid, represents the estimated total cost of the claim, or the case incurred amount. The estimated amount of loss for a reported claim is based upon various factors, including:

The case incurred amount varies over time due to uncertainties with respect to medical treatment and outcome, length and degree of disability, recurrence of injury, employment availability and wage levels and judicial determinations. As changes occur, the case incurred amount is adjusted. The initial estimate of the case incurred amount can vary significantly from the amount ultimately

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paid, especially in circumstances involving severe injuries with comprehensive medical treatment. Changes in case incurred amounts is an important component of our historical claim data.

In addition to case reserves, we establish reserves on an aggregate basis for loss and DCC expenses that have been incurred but not reported (IBNR). Our IBNR reserves are also intended to provide for aggregate changes in case incurred amounts as well as the unpaid cost of recently reported claims for which an initial case reserve has not been established.

The third component of our reserves for loss and loss adjustment expenses is our adjusting and other (AO) reserve. Our AO reserve covers primarily the estimated cost of administering claims and is established for the costs of future unallocated loss adjustment expenses for all reported and unreported claims.

The final component of our reserves for loss and loss adjustment expenses is the reserve for mandatory pooling arrangements. The mandatory pooling arrangement reserve includes the amount reported to us by the pool administrators.

In establishing reserves, we rely on the analysis of the more than 235,000 claims in our 37-year history. Using statistical analyses and actuarial methods, we estimate reserves based on historical patterns of case development, payment patterns, mix of business, premium rates charged, case reserving adequacy, operational changes, adjustment philosophy and severity and duration trends.

We review our reserves by accident year and state on a quarterly basis. Individual open claims are reviewed more frequently and adjustments to case incurred amounts are made based on expected outcomes. The number of claims reported or occurring during a period, combined with a calculation of average case incurred amounts, and measured over time, provide the foundation for our reserve estimates. In establishing our reserve estimates, we use historical trends in claim reporting timeliness, frequency of claims in relation to earned premium or covered payroll, premium rate levels charged and case development patterns. However, the number of variables and judgments involved in establishing reserve estimates, combined with some random variation in loss development patterns, results in uncertainty regarding projected ultimate losses. As a result, our ultimate liability for loss and loss adjustment expenses may be more or less than our reserve estimate.

Our analysis of our historical data provides the factors we use in our statistical and actuarial analysis in estimating our loss and DCC expense reserve. These factors are primarily measures over time of claims reported, average case incurred amounts, case development, duration, severity and payment patterns. However, these factors cannot be solely used as these factors do not take into consideration changes in business mix, claims management, regulatory issues, medical trends, medical inflation, employment and wage patterns, and other subjective factors. We use this combination of factors and subjective assumptions and the use of six well-accepted actuarial methods, as follows:

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These six methods are applied to both gross and net claims data. We then analyze the results and may emphasize or de-emphasize some or all of the outcomes to reflect our judgment of reasonableness in relation to supplementary information and operational and industry changes. These outcomes are then aggregated to produce a single weighted average point estimate that is the base estimate for loss and DCC expense reserves.

In determining the level of emphasis that may be placed on some or all of the methods, we review statistical information as to which methods are most appropriate, whether adjustments are appropriate within the particular methods, and if results produced by each method include inherent bias reflecting operational and industry changes. This supplementary information may include:

In establishing our AO reserves, we review our past adjustment expenses in relation to paid claims as well as estimated future costs based on expected claims activity and duration.

The sum of our net loss and DCC expense reserve, our AO reserve and our reserve for mandatory pooling arrangements is our total net reserve for loss and loss adjustment expenses.

As of December 31, 2022, our best estimate of our ultimate liability for loss and loss adjustment expenses, net of amounts recoverable from reinsurers, was $583.5 million, which includes $12.6 million in reserves for mandatory pooling arrangements as reported by the pool administrators. The estimate of our ultimate liability was derived from the process and methodology described above, which relies on substantial judgment. There is inherent uncertainty in estimating our reserves for loss and loss adjustment

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expenses. It is possible that our actual loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred may vary significantly from our estimates. We view our estimate of loss and DCC expenses as the most significant component of our reserve for loss and loss adjustment expenses.

Additional information regarding our reserve for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) as of December 31, 2022, 2021, and 2020 is set forth below:

We performed sensitivity analyses to show how our net loss and DCC expense reserve, including IBNR, would be impacted by changes in certain critical assumptions. For our paid and incurred development methods, we varied both the cumulative paid and incurred loss development factors (LDFs) by an increase and decrease of 30%, both individually and in combination with one another. The results of this sensitivity analysis, using December 31, 2022 data, are summarized below.

For our paid and incurred weighted severity methods, we varied our year-end selected trend factor (for medical costs, defense costs, wage inflation, etc.) by an increase and decrease of 300 basis points. The results of this sensitivity analysis, using December 31, 2022 data, are summarized below.

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Reconciliation of Loss Reserves

The table below shows the reconciliation of loss reserves on a gross and net basis for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, reflecting changes in losses incurred and paid losses.

Our gross reserves for loss and loss adjustment expenses of $696.0 million as of December 31, 2022 are expected to cover all unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses as of that date. As of December 31, 2022, we had 4,275 open claims, with an average of $162,816 in unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses per open claim. During the year ended December 31, 2022, 4,104 new claims were reported, and 4,423 claims were closed.

In 2022, our gross reserves decreased to $696.0 million from $745.3 million at December 31, 2021. The decrease in reserves was attributable primarily to favorable development from prior accident years. In 2022, we recognized $40.6 million of favorable development for prior accident years. As of December 31, 2021, we had 4,594 open claims, with an average of $162,229 in unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses per open claim. During the year ended December 31, 2021, 4,310 new claims were reported, and 4,474 claims were closed.

In 2021, our gross reserves decreased to $745.3 million from $760.6 million at December 31, 2020. The decrease in reserves was attributable primarily to favorable development from prior accident years. In 2021, there was also $61.9 million of favorable development for prior accident years. As of December 31, 2020, we had 4,758 open claims, with an average of $159,849 in unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses per open claim. During the year ended December 31, 2020, 4,452 new claims were reported, and 4,747 claims were closed.

Loss Development

The table below shows the net loss development for business written each year from 2012 through 2022. The table reflects the changes in our loss and loss adjustment expense reserves in subsequent years from the prior loss estimates based on experience as of the end of each succeeding year on a generally accepted accounting principles basis (GAAP).

The first line of the table shows, for the years indicated, our liability including the incurred but not reported loss and loss adjustment expenses as originally estimated, net of amounts recoverable from reinsurers. For example, as of December 31, 2012, it was estimated that $515.3 million would be sufficient to settle all claims not already settled that had occurred on or prior to December 31, 2012, whether reported or unreported. The next section of the table sets forth the re-estimates in later years of incurred losses, including payments, for the years indicated. The next section of the table shows, by year, the cumulative amounts of loss and loss adjustment expense payments, net of amounts recoverable from reinsurers, as of the end of each succeeding year. For example, with respect to the net loss reserves of $515.3 million as of December 31, 2012, by December 31, 2022 (ten years later) $287.9 million had actually been paid in settlement of the claims that relate to liabilities as of December 31, 2012.

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The “gross cumulative redundancy (deficiency)” represents, as of December 31, 2022, the difference between the latest re-estimated liability and the amounts as originally estimated. A redundancy means that the original estimate was higher than the current estimate. A deficiency means that the current estimate is higher than the original estimate.

Analysis of Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserve Development