CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP - Annual Report: 2019 (Form 10-K)

---

---

---

---

•	providing insurance market stability through financial strength

•	producing competitive, up-to-date products and services

•	developing associates committed to superior service

•	Commitment to our professional independent insurance agencies and to their continued success

•	Financial strength to fulfill our promises and be a consistent market for our agents’ business, supporting stability and confidence

•	Operating structure that supports local decision making, showcasing our claims excellence and allowing us to balance growth with underwriting discipline

•

Underwriting profit (loss) – Includes revenues from earned premiums for insurance and reinsurance policies or contracts, reduced by losses and loss expenses from associated insurance coverages. Those revenues are further reduced by underwriting expenses associated with marketing policies or related to administration of our insurance operation. The net result represents an underwriting profit when revenues exceed losses and expenses.

•	Investment income – Is generated primarily from investing the premiums collected for insurance policies sold, until funds are needed to pay losses for insurance claims or other expenses. Interest income from bond investments or dividend income from stock investments are the main categories of our investment income, with additional contribution from compounding effects over time.

•	Investment gains and losses – Occur from appreciation or depreciation of invested assets over time. Gains or losses are generally recognized from changes in market values of equity securities without a sale or when invested assets are sold or become impaired.

---

•	choose to sell a limited product line or only one type of insurance (monoline carrier)

•	target a certain segment of the market (for example, personal insurance)

•	focus on one or more states or regions (regional carrier)

•	independent agents, who represent multiple carriers

•	captive agents, who represent one carrier exclusively

•	direct marketing to consumers

---

---

•	Our $11.698 billion fixed-maturity portfolio is diversified and exceeds total insurance reserves. The portfolio had an average rating of A2/A, and its fair value exceeded total insurance reserve liabilities by approximately 30% at December 31, 2019. No corporate bond exposure accounted for more than 0.7% of our fixed-maturity portfolio, and no municipal exposure accounted for more than 0.2%.

•

The strength of our fixed-maturity portfolio provides an opportunity to invest for potential capital appreciation by purchasing equity securities. Our $7.752 billion equity portfolio minimizes concentrations in single stocks or industries. At December 31, 2019, no single security accounted for more than 5.6% of our portfolio of publicly traded common stocks, and no single sector accounted for more than 24%.

---

•

We ended 2019 with a 1.0-to-1 ratio of property casualty premiums to surplus, a key measure of property casualty insurance company capacity and security. A lower ratio indicates more security for policyholders and greater capacity for growth by an insurer. We believe our ratio provides ample flexibility to diversify risk by expanding our operations into new geographies and product areas. The estimated industry average ratio was 0.8-to-1 at year-end 2019, based on industry data reported through the first nine months of 2019.

•	We ended 2019 with a 6.6% ratio of life statutory adjusted risk-based surplus to liabilities, a key measure of life insurance company capital strength. A higher ratio indicates an insurer’s stronger security for policyholders and capacity to support business growth.

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

•	Commercial lines insurance

•	Personal lines insurance

•	Excess and surplus lines insurance

•	Life insurance

•	Investments

---

•

Commercial casualty – Provides coverage to businesses against third-party liability from accidents occurring on their premises or arising out of their operations, including injuries sustained from products or liability related to professional services. Specialized casualty policies may include similar coverage such as umbrella liability or employment practices. The commercial casualty business line includes liability coverage written as part of commercial package policies.

•

Commercial property – Provides coverage for loss or damage to buildings, inventory and equipment caused by covered causes of loss such as fire, wind, hail, water, theft and vandalism, as well as business interruption resulting from a covered loss. Commercial property also includes other coverages such as inland marine, which covers losses related to builder’s risk, cargo or equipment. Various property coverages can be written as stand-alone policies or can be added to a commercial package policy.

•	Commercial auto – Protects businesses against liability to others for both bodily injury and property damage, medical payments to insureds and occupants of their vehicles, physical damage to an insured’s own vehicle from collision and various other perils, and damages caused by uninsured motorists.

•	Workers’ compensation – Covers employers for government-specified benefits from work-related injuries to employees.

•	Other commercial lines – This includes several other types of insurance products for businesses, including:

◦

Management liability and surety – Includes director and officer (D&O) liability insurance, which covers liability for actual or alleged errors in judgment, breaches of duty or other wrongful acts related to activities of organizations and can optionally include other liability coverages. We market primarily to nonprofit organizations, privately held businesses, healthcare organizations, financial institutions and educational institutions. The for-profit portion includes approximately 180 bank or savings and loan financial institutions, with none having assets of $1 billion or more. The surety portion includes contract and commercial surety bonds for losses resulting from dishonesty, failure to perform and other acts and also includes fidelity bonds for fraudulent acts by specified individuals or dishonest acts by employees.

◦	Machinery and equipment – Specialized coverage provides protection for loss or damage to boilers and machinery, including production and computer equipment and business interruption, due to sudden and accidental mechanical breakdown, steam explosion or artificially generated electrical current.

---

---

---

•

Personal auto – Protects against liability to others for both bodily injury and property damage, medical payments to insureds and occupants of their vehicle, physical damage to an insured’s own vehicle from collision and various other perils, and damages caused by uninsured motorists. In addition, many states require policies to provide first-party personal injury protection, frequently referred to as no-fault coverage.

•	Homeowner – Protects against losses to dwellings and contents from a wide variety of perils, as well as liability arising out of personal activities both on and off the covered premises. We also offer coverage for condominium unit owners and renters.

•	Other personal lines – This includes the other types of insurance products we offer to individuals, including dwelling fire, inland marine, personal umbrella liability and watercraft coverages.

---

---

•

Commercial casualty – Covers businesses for third-party liability from accidents occurring on their premises or arising out of their operations, including injuries sustained from products. Other coverages available include miscellaneous errors and omissions, professional liability and excess liability. Typical businesses covered include contractors, manufacturers, real estate owners and managers, retail, consultants, and bars or taverns. Policies covering liability at special events are also available.

•	Commercial property – Insures buildings, inventory, equipment and business income from loss or damage due to causes such as fire, wind, hail, water, theft and vandalism. Examples of property we commonly insure with excess and surplus lines policies include temporarily vacant buildings, habitational, restaurants and relatively higher-hazard manufacturing classes.

---

---

•	Term life insurance – Policies under which a death benefit is payable only if the insured dies during a specific period of time. Policy options include a return of premium provision, a benefit equal to the sum of all paid base premiums that is payable if the insured person survives to the end of the term. The policies are fully underwritten using traditional and accelerated methods.

•

Universal life insurance – Long-duration life insurance policies that are fully underwritten. Contract premiums are neither fixed nor guaranteed; however, the contract does specify a minimum interest crediting rate and a maximum cost of insurance charge and expense charge. The cash values, available as loans collateralized by the cash surrender value, are not guaranteed and depend on the amount and timing of actual premium payments and the amount of actual contract assessments.

•

Worksite products – Term life insurance, return of premium term life insurance and whole life insurance offered to employees through their employer. Premiums are collected by the employer using payroll deduction. Policies are issued using a simplified underwriting approach and on a guaranteed issue basis. Worksite insurance products provide our property casualty agency force with excellent cross-serving opportunities for both commercial and personal accounts.

•

Whole life insurance – Policies that provide life insurance for the entire lifetime of the insured. The death benefit is guaranteed never to decrease and premiums are guaranteed never to increase. While premiums are fixed, they must be paid as scheduled. These policies provide guaranteed cash values that are available as loans collateralized by the cash surrender value. The policies are fully underwritten.

•

Deferred annuities that provide regular income payments that commence after the end of a specified period or when the annuitant attains a specified age. During the deferral period, any payments made under the contract accumulate at the crediting rate declared by the company but not less than a contract-specified guaranteed minimum interest rate. A deferred annuity may be surrendered during the deferral period for a cash value equal to the accumulated payments plus interest less the surrender charge, if any.

•	Immediate annuities that provide some combination of regular income and lump-sum payments in exchange for a single premium.

---

•	Because our property casualty operations are held in high regard, property casualty agency management is predisposed to consider selling our life products.

•

Marketing efforts for both our property casualty and life insurance businesses are directed by our field marketing department, coordinated with our life field marketing representatives, which assures consistency of communication and operations. Life field marketing representatives are available to meet face-to-face with agency personnel and their clients as well. Our life headquarters underwriters and other associates are available to the agents and field team to assist in the placement of business.

•	Term life insurance is our largest life insurance product line. We continue to develop and offer term products with features our agents indicate are important, such as a return of premium benefit and an option for an accelerated underwriting product for our personal lines agents.

•	We also offer products addressing the needs of businesses with key person and buy-sell coverages. We offer quality, personal life insurance coverage to personal and commercial clients of our agencies.

---

•	Fixed-maturity investments – Includes taxable and tax-exempt bonds and redeemable preferred stocks. During 2019, the combined effect of purchases and a net increase in unrealized gains offset sales and calls of fixed-maturity securities in our portfolio. During 2018, a net decrease in unrealized gains, in addition to sales and calls, offset purchases.

•	Equity investments – Includes common and nonredeemable preferred stocks. During 2019, the combined effect of purchases and a net increase in fair value offset sales of equity securities in our portfolio. During 2018, a net decrease in fair value and sales offset purchases.

---

---

---

---

•

Insurance Holding Company Regulation – We are regulated as an insurance holding company system in the respective states of domicile of our lead standard market property casualty company subsidiary and its surplus lines insurance subsidiary. These regulations require that we annually furnish financial and other information about the governance and operations of the individual companies within the holding company system. Information about the risks posed by any noninsurance company subsidiaries must also be disclosed. All transactions within a holding company system affecting insurers must be fair and equitable. Notice to the state insurance commissioner is required prior to the consummation of transactions affecting the ownership or control of an insurer and prior to certain material transactions between an insurer and any person or entity in its holding company group. In addition, some of those transactions cannot be consummated without the commissioner’s prior approval.

•

Subsidiary Dividends – The Cincinnati Insurance Company is fully owned by Cincinnati Financial Corporation. The dividend-paying capacity of The Cincinnati Insurance Company and its fully owned subsidiaries is regulated by the laws of the applicable state of domicile. Under these laws, our domestic insurance subsidiaries must provide a 10-day advance informational notice to the insurance commissioner for the domiciliary state prior to payment of any dividend or distribution to its shareholders. Generally, the most our domestic insurance subsidiary can pay without prior regulatory approval is the greater of 10% of statutory capital and surplus or 100% of statutory net income for the prior calendar year.

•

Insurance Operations – All of our domestic insurance subsidiaries are subject to licensing and supervision by departments of insurance in the states in which they do business. The nature and extent of such regulations vary, but generally are rooted in statutes that delegate regulatory, supervisory and administrative powers to state insurance departments. Such regulations, supervision and administration of the domestic insurance subsidiaries include: the standards of solvency that must be met and maintained; the licensing of insurers and their agents and brokers; the nature and limitations on investments; deposits of securities for the benefit of policyholders; regulation of standard market policy forms and premium rates; policy cancellations and nonrenewals; test audit programs; periodic examination of the affairs of insurance companies; annual and other reports required to be filed on the financial condition of insurers or for other purposes; requirements regarding reserves for unearned premiums, losses and other matters; the nature of and limitations on dividends to policyholders and shareholders; the nature and extent of required participation in insurance guaranty funds; the involuntary assumption of hard-to-place or high-risk insurance business, primarily workers’ compensation insurance; and the collection, remittance and reporting of certain taxes and fees. Our primary insurance regulators in the U.S. have adopted the Model Audit Rule for annual statutory financial reporting. This regulation closely mirrors the Sarbanes-Oxley Act on matters such as auditor independence, corporate governance and internal controls over financial reporting. The regulation permits the audit committee of Cincinnati Financial Corporation’s board of directors to also serve as the audit committee of each of our insurance subsidiaries for purposes of this regulation.

•

Insurance Guaranty Associations – For certain obligations of insolvent insurance companies to policyholders and claimants, states assess each member insurer in an amount relative to the insurer’s proportionate share of business written by all member insurers in the state. While the amount of such assessments has not been material in recent years, we cannot predict the amount and timing of any future assessments or refunds on our insurance subsidiaries under these laws.

•

Shared Market and Joint Underwriting Plans – Assigned risk plans, reinsurance facilities and joint underwriting associations are mechanisms that generally provide applicants with various basic insurance coverages when they are not available in voluntary markets. States can require participation based upon the amount of an insurance company’s voluntary market share, and underwriting results related to these pools could be adverse to our company.

---

•

Statutory Accounting – For public reporting, domestic insurance companies prepare financial statements in accordance with GAAP. However, certain data also must be calculated according to statutory accounting rules as defined in the NAIC’s Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual. While not a substitute for any GAAP measure of performance, statutory data frequently is used by industry analysts and other recognized reporting sources to facilitate comparisons of the performance of insurance companies.

•	Insurance Reserves – State insurance laws require that property casualty and life insurers annually analyze the adequacy of reserves. Our appointed actuaries must submit an opinion that reserves are adequate for policy claims-paying obligations and related expenses.

•

Investment Regulation – Insurance company investments must comply with laws and regulations pertaining to the type, quality and concentration of investments. Such laws and regulations permit investments in federal, state and municipal obligations, corporate bonds, preferred and common equity securities, mortgage loans, real estate and certain other investments, subject to specified limits and other qualifications.

•

Risk-Based Capital Requirements – The NAIC’s risk-based capital (RBC) requirements for property casualty and life insurers serve as an early warning tool for the NAIC and state regulators to identify companies that may be undercapitalized and may merit further regulatory action. The NAIC has a standard formula for annually assessing RBC. The formula for calculating RBC for property casualty companies takes into account asset and credit risks but places more emphasis on underwriting factors for reserving and pricing. The formula for calculating RBC for life insurance companies takes into account factors relating to insurance, business, asset and interest-rate risks.

---

---

---

•

Downgrade of the financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries. We believe our strong insurer financial strength ratings, in particular, the A+ (Superior) ratings from A.M. Best for our standard market property casualty insurance group and each subsidiary in that group, are an important competitive advantage. See Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Financial Strength, for additional discussion of our financial strength ratings.

•	Concerns that doing business with us is difficult or not profitable, perceptions that our level of service is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace, perceptions that our products do not meet the needs of our agents’ clients or perceptions that our business practices are not compatible with agents’ business models.

•	Mergers and acquisitions could result in a concentration of a significant amount of premium in one agency.

•	Delays in the development, implementation, performance and benefits of technology systems and enhancements or independent agent perceptions that our technology solutions do not match their needs.

---

---

•	Hurricanes in the gulf, eastern, southeastern and northeastern coastal regions.

•	Earthquakes in many regions, most particularly in the New Madrid fault zone, California, the Northwest and Southwest.

•	Tornado, wind and hail in the Midwest, South, Southeast, Southwest and the mid-Atlantic.

•	Wildfires.

•	On a worldwide basis, in the event of a severe catastrophic event or terrorist attack we may be exposed to material losses through our Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global operations.

---

---

---

•	Competitiveness of premiums charged

•	Relationships among carriers, agents, brokers and policyholders

•	Underwriting and pricing methodologies that allow insurers to identify and flexibly price risks

•	Compensation provided to agents

•	Underwriting discipline

•	Terms and conditions of insurance coverage

•	Speed with which products are brought to market

•	Product and marketing innovations, including advertising

•	Technological competence and innovation

•	Ability to control expenses

•	Adequacy of financial strength ratings by independent ratings agencies such as A.M. Best

•	Quality of services and tools provided to agents and policyholders

•	Claims satisfaction and reputation

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

*

Investment gains and losses are integral to our financial results over the long term, but our substantial discretion in the timing of investment sales may cause this value to fluctuate substantially. Also, applicable accounting standards require us to recognize gains and losses from changes in fair values of equity securities and changes in embedded derivatives without actual realization of those gains and losses. We discuss investment gains and losses for the past three years in Item 7, Investments Results.

---

---

---

•

Premium growth – We believe over any five-year period our agency relationships and initiatives can lead to a property casualty written premium growth rate that exceeds the industry average. The compound annual growth rate of our net written premiums was 5.9% over the five-year period 2015 through 2019, exceeding the 4.3% estimated growth rate for the property casualty insurance industry, with 2019 representing industry data reported through the first nine months of 2019. The industry’s growth rate excludes its mortgage and financial guaranty lines of business.

•

Combined ratio – We believe our underwriting philosophy and initiatives can drive performance to achieve our underwriting profitability target of a GAAP combined ratio over any five-year period that consistently averages within the range of 95% to 100%. Our GAAP combined ratio averaged 94.7% over the five-year period 2015 through 2019, slightly better than the performance target range. Performance as measured by the combined ratio is discussed in Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Results. Our statutory combined ratio averaged 94.3% over the five-year period 2015 through 2019, compared with an estimated 100.1% for the property casualty industry, with 2019 representing industry data reported through the first nine months of 2019. The industry’s ratio again excludes its mortgage and financial guaranty lines of business.

•	Investment contribution – We believe our investment philosophy and initiatives can drive investment income growth and lead to a total return on our equity investment portfolio over a five-year period that exceeds the five-year total return of the S&P 500 Index.

◦	Investment income growth, on a pretax basis, had a compound annual growth rate of 3.3% over the five-year period 2015 through 2019.

◦	Over the five years ended December 31, 2019, our equity portfolio compound annual total return was 12.0% compared with a compound annual total return of 11.7% for the Index. Our equity portfolio favors larger-capitalization, high-quality, dividend growing stocks with a slight value orientation. For the year 2019, our equity portfolio total return was 31.9%, compared with 31.5% for the Index.

---

---

---

•

Manage insurance profitability – Implementation of these initiatives is intended to enhance underwriting expertise and knowledge, thereby increasing our ability to manage our business while also gaining efficiency. Better profit margins can arise from additional information and more focused action on underperforming product lines, plus pricing capabilities we are expanding through the use of technology and analytics. In addition to enhancing company efficiency, improving internal processes also supports the ability of the independent agencies that represent us to grow profitably by allowing them to serve clients faster and to more efficiently manage agency expenses.

•

Drive premium growth – Implementation of these initiatives is intended to further penetrate each market we serve through our independent agencies. Strategies aimed at specific market opportunities, along with service enhancements, can help our agents grow and increase our share of their business. Premium growth initiatives also include expansion of Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global. Diversified growth also may reduce variability of losses from weather-related catastrophes.

•	We expect the insurance marketplace to remain competitive, which is likely to cause carriers to pursue strategies that they believe could lead to economies of scale, market share gains or the potential for an improved competitive posture.

•	We expect the independent insurance agency system to remain strong, with continued agency consolidation. If soft insurance market conditions return in the near term, it will create additional risk for agencies.

•

A return of soft insurance market pricing could significantly affect growth rates and earned premium levels for some time into the future. If the economy falters, we may experience low or no premium growth for our property casualty segments. Premium growth also may lag as some of our growth initiatives require more time to reach their full contribution. In addition, economic factors, including inflation, may increase our claims and settlement expenses related to medical care, litigation and construction.

•

Financial markets continued to display volatility in recent years, and some predict more turbulence in the future from effects such as changes in government policy, growth challenges for emerging country economies or other geopolitical events that could also affect the U.S. economy and markets. Should financial markets decline temporarily, which could occur as part of typical market volatility patterns, the related book value component of our value creation ratio could also register a weak or negative result.

---

•	type of claim involved

•	circumstances surrounding each claim

•	policy provisions pertaining to each claim

•	potential for subrogation or salvage recoverable

•	general insurance reserving practices

---

•

For events designated as natural catastrophes resulting in losses incurred related to premiums written on a direct basis by The Cincinnati Insurance Companies, we calculate IBNR reserves directly as a result of an estimated IBNR claim count and an estimated average claim amount for each event. Once case reserves are established for a catastrophe event, we reduce the IBNR reserves. Our claims department management coordinates the assessment of these events and prepares the related IBNR reserve estimates. Such an assessment involves a comprehensive analysis of the nature of the event, of policyholder exposures within the affected geographic area and of available claims intelligence. Depending on the nature of the event, available claims intelligence could include surveys of field claims associates within the affected geographic area, feedback from a catastrophe claims team sent into the area, as well as data on claims reported as of the financial statement date.

•

For events designated as natural catastrophes resulting in losses for Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, we begin with a review of in-force policies, treaties and related limits likely to be affected by each event. For both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, use of information from third-party catastrophe models, industry estimates, and our own proprietary adjustments are utilized for the estimate of ultimate losses for each catastrophe event. Incurred losses from catastrophe events for both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global can be designated catastrophes by PCS, or deemed as a catastrophe by the international insurance industry or, for Cincinnati Re, as reported by ceding companies. IBNR reserves are calculated as the difference between the estimate of the ultimate loss and loss expenses and the sum of total loss and loss expense payments and total case reserves.

•	For asbestos and environmental claims, we calculate IBNR reserves by deriving an actuarially-based estimate of total unpaid loss and loss expenses. We then reduce the estimate by total case reserves. We discuss the reserve analysis that applies to asbestos and environmental reserves in Liquidity and Capital Resources, Asbestos and Environmental Loss and Loss Expense Reserves.

•

For loss expenses that pertain primarily to salaries and other costs related to our claims department associates, also referred to as adjusting and other expense or AOE, we calculate reserves based on an analysis of the relationship between paid losses and paid AOE. Reserves for AOE are allocated to company, line of business and accident year based on a claim count algorithm. Claim counts reported and used in the reserving process are primarily measured by insurance coverages that are triggered when a loss occurs and a reserve is established. Coverages are defined as unique combinations of certain attributes such as line of business and cause of loss. Claims that are opened and closed without payment are included in the reported claim counts. Claim counts are presented on a direct basis only and do not reflect any assumed or ceded reinsurance.

•

For all other claims and events, including reinsurance assumed or ceded, IBNR reserves are calculated as the difference between an actuarial estimate of the ultimate cost of total loss and loss expenses incurred reduced by the sum of total loss and loss expense payments and total case reserves estimated for individual claims. Reserve amounts for those other claims and events are significant, and represent the majority of amounts shown as IBNR reserves and loss expense reserves in the table included in Liquidity and Capital Resources, Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expense Obligations and Reserves. We discuss below the development of actuarially based estimates of the ultimate cost of total loss and loss expenses incurred.

---

•	paid and reported loss development methods

•	paid and reported loss Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods

•	individual and multiple probabilistic trend family models

•	company and industry pricing

•	company and industry exposure

•	company and industry loss frequency and severity

•	past large loss events

•	company and industry premium

•	company in-force policy count

•	large loss activity and trends in large losses

•	new business activity

•	judicial decisions

•	general economic trends such as inflation

•	trends in litigiousness and legal expenses

•	product and underwriting changes

•	changes in claims practices

---

•

Emergence of loss and defense and cost containment expenses, also referred to as DCCE, on an accident year basis. Historical paid loss, reported loss and paid DCCE data for the business lines we analyze contain patterns that reflect how unpaid losses, unreported losses and unpaid DCCE as of a financial statement date will emerge in the future. Unless our actuarial staff or management identifies reasons or factors that invalidate the extension of historical patterns into the future, these patterns can be used to make projections necessary for estimating IBNR reserves. Our actuaries significantly rely on this assumption in the application of all methods and models mentioned above.

•	Calendar year inflation. For long-tail and mid-tail business lines, calendar year inflation trends for future paid losses and paid DCCE do not vary significantly from a stable, long-term average. Our actuaries base reserve estimates derived from probabilistic trend family models on this assumption.

•

Exposure levels. Historical earned premiums, when adjusted to reflect common levels of product pricing and loss cost inflation, can serve as a proxy for historical exposures. Our actuaries require this assumption to estimate expected loss ratios and expected DCCE ratios used by the Bornhuetter-Ferguson reserving methods. They may also use this assumption to establish exposure levels for recent accident years, characterized by “green” or immature data, when working with probabilistic trend family models.

•

Claims having atypical emergence patterns. Characteristics of certain subsets of claims, such as high frequency, high severity, or mass tort claims, have the potential to distort patterns contained in historical paid loss, reported loss and paid DCCE data. When testing indicates this to be the case for a particular subset of claims, our actuaries segregate these claims from the data and analyze them separately. Subsets of claims that could fall into this category include hurricane claims or claims for other weather events where total losses we incurred were very large, individual large claims and asbestos and environmental claims.

---

---

---

---

---

•	Commercial lines insurance

•	Personal lines insurance

•	Excess and surplus lines insurance

•	Life insurance

•	Investments

---

•

Premiums – Agency renewal written premiums rose $161 million in 2019 and continued to contribute to growth in earned premiums and net written premiums that rose in each of our property casualty segments. The renewal premium increase was largely due to average renewal price increases and a higher level of insured exposures. Price increases with enhanced precision continue to benefit operating results.

---

•

Combined ratio – The 2019 combined ratio improved by 2.6 percentage points compared with 2018, including a 1.1 percentage-point decrease in the ratio for natural catastrophe losses. The 2019 ratio for current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes improved by 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decrease in commercial lines large losses for new losses above $1 million described below, and what we believe are improvements to some of our loss experience due to recent-year initiatives to improve pricing precision and claims and loss control practices. The remainder of the 2019 combined ratio decrease included 1.0 percentage points more benefit in the ratio for prior accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes. We further discuss ratios related to reserve development in the sections that follow the Catastrophe Losses Incurred table below.

•	Combined – Aggregate net recovery up to $50 million after retaining the first $125 million of each loss

•	Cincinnati Re-only – Aggregate net recovery up to $8 million after retaining the first $45 million in aggregate

•	Direct business-only in certain Western states – Aggregate net recovery up to $31 million for:

◦	Earthquake: After retaining the first $20 million of each loss

◦	Brushfire or wildfire: After retaining the first $40 million of each loss

---

---

---

---

---

•	Premiums – Earned premiums and net written premiums rose in 2019, including a $73 million increase in renewal written premiums that continued to include higher average pricing. New business written premiums in 2019 increased $93 million, or 22%, compared with 2018. Approximately one-third of the increase was from agencies appointed since the beginning of 2018.

•	Combined ratio – The 2019 combined ratio improved by 2.5 percentage points compared with 2018, including a 1.3 percentage-point decrease in the ratio component for natural catastrophe losses. Development on prior accident years’ loss and loss expense reserves before catastrophes during 2019 was 0.8 percentage points more favorable than in 2018.

---

---

---

---

---

---

•	Premiums – Earned premiums and net written premiums continued to grow in 2019, driven by increases in renewal written premiums that reflected higher average pricing. Renewal written premiums rose $71 million, or 6%, in 2019, compared with 2018. Net written premiums from high net worth policies totaled approximately $408 million in 2019, compared with $309 million in 2018.

•	Combined ratio – The 2019 combined ratio improved 2.1 percentage points, compared with 2018, despite a 0.5 percentage-point increase in the ratio for 2019 natural catastrophe losses. Development on prior accident years’ loss and loss expense reserves before catastrophes during 2019 was 2.7 percentage points more favorable than in 2018.

---

---

---

---

---

•	Premiums – Earned premiums and net written premiums continued to grow during 2019, including an increase in new business written premiums and higher renewal written premiums that included average renewal estimated price increases in the low-single-digit range. New business written premiums grew 57% in 2019, reflecting opportunities to write larger policies and our additional marketing efforts.

•	Combined ratio – The combined ratio rose 8.0 percentage points in 2019, primarily due to less favorable reserve development on prior accident years.

---

---

---

---

•	Revenues – Earned premiums rose 8% for the year 2019, as shown in the table below that includes details by major line of business. Our largest life insurance product line, term life insurance, rose 8%. Net in-force policy face amounts rose 6% to $69.984 billion at year-end 2019 from $66.142 billion at year-end 2018 and $61.177 billion at year-end 2017.

•

Profitability – The life insurance segment frequently reports only a small profit or loss because most of its investment income is included in the investments segment results. We include only investment income credited to contract holders (interest assumed in life insurance policy reserve calculations) in life insurance segment results. The segment reported a $1 million profit in 2019, following profit of $8 million in 2018 and a loss of $1 million in 2017. It has averaged an annual profit of $1 million over the past five years.

---

•

Contract holders’ benefits incurred, related to traditional life and interest-sensitive products, accounted for 76.9% of 2019 total benefits and expenses compared with 78.1% in 2018 and 76.1% in 2017. Total contract holders’ benefits increased as net death claims were higher in 2019, compared with 2018. Net death claims increased in 2019 and were above our mortality projections while remaining within our range of pricing expectations.

•

Underwriting expenses incurred, net of deferred acquisition costs, accounted for 23.1% of 2019 total benefits and expenses compared with 21.9% in 2018 and 23.9% in 2017. Expenses in 2019 increased 15%, compared with 8% growth in earned premiums. Expenses in 2018 decreased 5%, compared with 8% growth in earned premiums. In 2019, unlocking of interest rate and other actuarial assumptions decreased the amount of expenses deferred to future periods, increasing underwriting expenses. In 2018, unlocking of interest rate and other actuarial assumptions increased the amount of expenses deferred to future periods, decreasing underwriting expenses.

---

---

•

Investment income – Pretax investment income grew $27 million, or 4%, in 2019, primarily due to an increase from dividends. Dividend income reflected rising dividend rates and net purchases of equity securities from available funds. Interest income increased by $1 million in 2019, compared with 2018, as net purchases of fixed-maturity securities offset the continuing effects on bond yields of the low interest rate environment. Pretax investment income rose 2% in 2018, primarily due to an increase in dividend income. Average yields in the investment income table below are based on the average invested asset and cash amounts indicated in the table using fixed-maturity securities valued at amortized cost and all other securities at fair value.

•

Investment gains and losses – We reported an investment gain in 2019, primarily due to favorable changes in fair values of equity securities even though we continue to hold the securities or as otherwise required by GAAP. For 2018, we reported an investment loss, primarily due to unfavorable changes in fair values of equity securities we continued to hold. For 2017, we reported an investment gain largely due to investment sales that were discretionary in timing and amount. Those gains were reduced by other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) charges.

---

---

•

Interest income of $446 million in 2019 increased by $1 million, compared with 2018. The average fixed-maturity pretax yield declined by approximately 15 basis points but was offset by a larger average fixed-maturity portfolio that rose 4% on an amortized cost basis. Interest income in 2018 matched 2017 when that yield declined by approximately 17 basis points while the portfolio rose 4% on an amortized cost basis.

•	Dividend income rose $20 million, or 11%, in 2019, after rising 6% in 2018. Increases in dividend payment rates for most of the holdings in our common stock portfolio during both 2019 and 2018 drove the increases in dividend income. An increase in funds invested in that portfolio during both 2019 and 2018 also favorably affected dividend income.

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

•	$28 million aggregate principal amount of 6.900% senior debentures due 2028.

•	$391 million aggregate principal amount of 6.920% senior debentures due 2028.

•	$374 million aggregate principal amount of 6.125% senior debentures due 2034.

•

Dividends to shareholders – The ability of our company to continue paying cash dividends is subject to factors the board of directors deem relevant. While the board and management believe there is merit to sustaining the company’s long record of dividend increases, our first priority is the company’s financial strength. Over the past 10 years, the company has paid an average of 69% of net income as dividends. Through 2019, the board had increased our cash dividend for 59 consecutive years. The board's decision in January 2020 to increase the dividend demonstrated confidence in the company’s strong capital, liquidity, financial flexibility and initiatives to grow earnings.

•

Common stock repurchase – Generally, our board believes that share repurchases can help fulfill our commitment to enhancing shareholder value. Consequently, the board has authorized the repurchase of outstanding shares, giving management discretion to purchase shares at reasonable prices in light of circumstances at the time of purchase. Our approach has been to hold capital adequate to support future growth of our insurance operations and repurchase shares at management's discretion. Repurchases are intended to offset the issuance of shares through equity compensation plans, primarily due to vesting of service-based

---

•	Commissions – We expect commission payments to generally track with written premiums.

•	Other operating expenses – Many of our operating expenses are not contractual obligations but reflect the ongoing expenses of our business.

•	Other invested assets – We expect to fund approximately $108 million for our private equity and real estate investments over the next several years.

•	Funds at Lloyd's – From time to time, we may be required to meet certain cash funding requirements on behalf of Cincinnati Global. During 2019, the parent company deposited $67 million with Lloyd's to meet these funding requirements.

---

---

---

---

---

•	Commercial casualty – During 2019 and 2018, we experienced favorable development on prior accident years after seeing adverse development in 2017 for this line of business. We continue to watch this line so we can detect unfavorable trends should they reoccur.

---

•	Workers’ compensation – We continue to see favorable reserve development, for all prior accident years in aggregate. During 2019 and 2018, the trend for estimated payments to be made in future calendar years was stable compared to 2017. However, we continue to monitor this line closely, as a sudden increase in trend for future payments has a highly leveraged effect.

•

Commercial auto – Loss emergence continued to develop unfavorably during parts of 2019. This line of business has been troublesome for the industry in recent years. As part of the U.S. economic recession of a few years ago, slowing business activity influenced our estimates of reserves for ultimate losses and loss expenses during that period. As the economy slowly recovered, we believe we were slow to recognize some of the higher loss cost effects in current accident year reserve estimates for at least part of that period. As claims that occurred during that period have become more mature, paid and reported loss cost trends resulted in us increasing our estimated ultimate losses. Initiatives to improve profitability of our commercial auto line of business are discussed in Commercial Lines Insurance Results.

---

---

---

---

•

Property per risk treaty – The primary purpose of the property treaty is to provide capacity up to $50 million, adequate for the majority of the risks we write. It also includes protection for extra-contractual liability coverage losses. We retain the first $10 million of each loss. Losses between $10 million and $50 million are reinsured at 100%. The 2020 ceded premium estimate was $31 million, compared with $28 million for the 2019 estimate.

•	Property excess treaty – We purchased a property reinsurance treaty that provides an additional $50 million in protection for property losses. This treaty, along with the property per risk treaty, provides a total of $100 million of protection. The 2020 ceded premium estimate was approximately $3 million, compared with $2 million for the 2019 estimate.

•

Casualty per occurrence treaty – The casualty treaty provides capacity up to $25 million. Similar to the property treaty, it provides sufficient capacity to cover the vast majority of casualty accounts we insure and also includes protection for extra-contractual liability coverage losses. We retain the first $10 million of each loss. Losses between $10 million and $25 million are reinsured at 100%. The 2020 ceded premium estimate was $12 million, essentially unchanged from the 2019 estimate.

•

Casualty excess treaty – We purchase a casualty reinsurance treaty that provides an additional $45 million in protection for certain casualty losses. This treaty, along with the casualty per occurrence treaty, provides a total of $70 million of protection for workers’ compensation, extra-contractual liability coverage and clash coverage losses, which would apply when a single occurrence involves multiple policyholders of The Cincinnati Insurance Companies or multiple coverages for one insured. The 2020 ceded premium estimate was approximately $3 million, essentially unchanged from the 2019 estimate.

•

Property catastrophe treaty – To protect against catastrophic events such as wind and hail, hurricanes or earthquakes, we purchased property catastrophe reinsurance with a limit up to $800 million. Losses from the same occurrence can be aggregated into one limit over a 120-hour period and applied to the treaty towards recovery. The treaty contains one reinstatement provision. The coverage layer between $600 million and $800 million is a new feature in 2020 and includes coverage for Cincinnati Global, while the other layers exclude it. A portion of the layer provides an additional $60 million of earthquake-only coverage but does not include coverage for Cincinnati Global. The 2020 ceded premium estimate was $44 million, compared with $43 million for the 2019 estimate with its limit of $600 million. We retain the first $100 million of any loss, and a share of losses up to $800 million. The percentage share we retain for each layer of coverage is indicated below:

◦	21.0% of losses between $100 million and $200 million

◦	5.0% of losses between $200 million and $300 million

◦	5.0% of losses between $300 million and $400 million

◦	5.0% of losses between $400 million and $600 million

◦	54.0% of losses between $600 million and $800 million

•

Effective July 1, 2019, we renewed our property catastrophe occurrence and aggregate excess of loss treaty for a period of one year. The treaty has a total limit of $50 million for all coverages combined, with various combinations of occurrences for coverage up to the $50 million aggregate limit. The combined coverage noted below applies to business written on a direct basis and by Cincinnati Re. Cincinnati Global catastrophe losses are not applicable to the treaty. Ceded premiums for the one-year renewal period of coverage from this treaty are estimated to be approximately $9 million. Key coverages are summarized below.

•	Combined – Aggregate net recovery up to $50 million after retaining the first $125 million of each loss

•	Cincinnati Re-only – Aggregate net recovery up to $8 million after retaining the first $45 million in aggregate

•	Direct business-only in certain Western states – Aggregate net recovery up to $31 million for:

◦	Earthquake: After retaining the first $20 million of each loss

◦	Brushfire or wildfire: After retaining the first $40 million of each loss

•	Our alternative reinsurance structure to protect against certain catastrophic events expired at the end of 2019 and was not renewed. That arrangement was collateralized reinsurance funded through the issuance of collateralized risk-linked securities, known as catastrophe bonds with Skyline Re Ltd.

---

•	Property per risk treaty – The property treaty provides limits up to $5 million, which is adequate capacity for the risk profile we insure. It also includes protection for extra-contractual liability coverage losses. Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters retains the first $1 million of any policy loss. Losses between $1 million and $5 million are reinsured at 100% by The Cincinnati Insurance Company.

•

Casualty treaties – The casualty treaty is written on an excess of loss basis and provide limits up to $6 million, which is adequate capacity for the risk profile we insure. A second treaty layer of $5 million excess of $6 million is written to provide coverage for extra contractual obligations or clash exposures. The maximum retention for any one casualty loss is $2 million by Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters. Losses between $2 million and $6 million are reinsured at 100% by The Cincinnati Insurance Company.

•	Basket retention – Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters has purchased this coverage to limit our retention to $2 million in the event that the same occurrence results in both a property and a casualty loss.

•	Property catastrophe treaty – As a subsidiary of The Cincinnati Insurance Company, Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters is a named insured under our corporate property catastrophe treaty. All terms and conditions of this reinsurance coverage apply to policies underwritten by Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters.

---

---

•	Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes

•	Increased frequency and/or severity of claims or development of claims that are unforeseen at the time of policy issuance

•	Inadequate estimates, assumptions or reliance on third-party data used for critical accounting estimates

•	Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company’s equity portfolio and book value

•	Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company’s ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets

•	Domestic and global events resulting in capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:

◦	Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)

◦	Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities

◦	Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities

•	Our inability to integrate Cincinnati Global and its subsidiaries into our on-going operations, or disruptions to our on-going operations due to such integration

•	Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies

•	Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyberattacks, that could negatively affect our ability to conduct business; disrupt our relationships with agents, policyholders and others; cause reputational damage, mitigation expenses and data loss and expose us to liability under federal and state laws

•	Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products

•	Delays, inadequate data developed internally or from third parties, or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods, including telematics and other usage-based insurance methods, or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness

•	Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company’s premium volume

•	Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages

---

•	Inability to obtain adequate ceded reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance coverage purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers

•	Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability

•	Inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends consistent with current or past levels

•	Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company’s relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company’s opportunities for growth, such as:

◦	Downgrades of the company’s financial strength ratings

◦	Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult

◦	Perceptions that the company’s level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace

◦	Inability or unwillingness to nimbly develop and introduce coverage product updates and innovations that our competitors offer and consumers expect to find in the marketplace

•	Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:

◦	Impose new obligations on us that increase our expenses or change the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates

◦	Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations

◦	Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business

◦	Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance‑related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes

◦	Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law

◦	Increase our other expenses

◦	Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates

◦	Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace

◦	Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents

•	Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings

•	Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company’s future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

---

•	Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others

•	Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location

---

•	Political – the potential for a decrease in value due to the real or perceived impact of governmental policies or conditions

•	Regulatory – the potential for a decrease in value due to the impact of legislative proposals or changes in laws or regulations

•	Economic – the potential for a decrease in value due to changes in general economic factors (recession, inflation, deflation, etc.)

•	Revaluation – the potential for a decrease in value due to a change in relative value (change in market multiple) of the market brought on by general economic factors

•	Interest-rate – the potential for a decrease in value of a security or portfolio due to its sensitivity to changes (increases or decreases) in the general level of interest rates

•	Fraud – the potential for a negative impact on an issuer’s performance due to actual or alleged illegal or improper activity of individuals it employs

•	Credit – the potential for deterioration in an issuer’s financial profile due to specific company issues, problems it faces in the course of its operations or industry-related issues

•	Default – the possibility that an issuer will not make a required payment (interest payment or return of principal) on its debt. Generally this occurs after its financial profile has deteriorated (credit risk) and it no longer has the means to make its payments

---

---

---

---

•	The 157 holdings were fair valued between 90% and 100% of cost or amortized cost. The value of these securities fluctuates primarily because of changes in interest rates. The fair value of these 157 securities was $523 million at year-end 2019, and they accounted for $7 million in unrealized losses.

•	No fixed-maturity securities had a fair value below 90% of cost or amortized cost.

---

---

---

•	Pertain to the maintenance of records that, in reasonable detail, accurately and fairly reflect the transactions and dispositions of the assets of the company;

•	Provide reasonable assurance that transactions are recorded as necessary to permit preparation of financial statements in accordance with GAAP and that receipts and expenditures of the company are being made only in accordance with authorizations of management and the directors of the company; and

•	Provide reasonable assurance regarding prevention or timely detection of unauthorized acquisition, use or disposition of the company’s assets that could have a material effect on the financial statements.

---

---

---

•	We tested the effectiveness of controls related to loss and loss expense reserves, including those over the review of methods, models, assumptions and judgments used, and management’s review of the estimate.

•	We tested the underlying data that served as the basis for the actuarial analysis, including historical claims data, to test the reasonableness of key inputs to the actuarial estimate.

•	With the assistance of our actuarial specialists, we used the Company’s claims data and other inputs, to develop a range of independent estimates for the loss and loss expense reserves. We used these independent estimates to assess the reasonableness of the Company’s reserves by comparing our estimates to the Company’s recorded loss and loss expense reserves.

•	We compared the Company’s prior year estimates of expected incurred losses to actual experience during the current year to identify potential bias in the determination of loss and loss expense reserves.

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

•	Level 1 – Financial assets and liabilities for which inputs are observable and are obtained from reliable quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets. This is the most reliable fair value measurement and includes, for example, active exchange-traded equity securities.

•	Level 2 – Financial assets and liabilities for which values are based on quoted prices in markets that are not active or for which values are based on similar assets and liabilities that are actively traded. This also includes pricing models for which the inputs are corroborated by market data.

•	Level 3 – Financial assets and liabilities for which values are based on prices or valuation techniques that require inputs that are both unobservable and significant to the overall fair value measurement. Level 3 inputs include the following:

◦	Quotes from brokers or other external sources that are not considered binding;

◦	Quotes from brokers or other external sources where it cannot be determined that market participants would in fact transact for the asset or liability at the quoted price; or

◦	Quotes from brokers or other external sources where the inputs are not deemed observable.

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

•	Weighted-average expected term is based on historical experience of similar awards with consideration for current exercise trends.

•	Expected volatility is based on our stock price over a historical period that approximates the expected term.

•	Dividend yield is determined by dividing the annualized per share dividend by the stock price on the date of grant.

•	Risk-free rates are the implied yield currently available on zero-coupon U.S. Treasury issues with a remaining term approximating the expected term.

---

---

•	Correlation coefficients are based upon the stock price data used to calculate the historical volatilities. The correlation coefficients are used to model the way the price of each entity's stock tends to move in relation to each other.

•	Expected volatility is based on each company's historical volatility using daily stock price observations with the period commensurate with the performance measurement period.

•	Dividend yield has been modeled assuming dividends are reinvested in additional shares of the issuing entity on the ex-dividend date during the performance period.

•	Risk-free rates are equal to the yield, as of the measurement date, of the zero-coupon U.S. Treasury bill that is commensurate with the performance measurement period.

---

•	Commercial lines insurance

•	Personal lines insurance

•	Excess and surplus lines insurance

•	Life insurance

•	Investments

•	All four insurance segments record revenues from insurance premiums earned.

•	Fee revenues for the commercial, personal and excess and surplus insurance segments primarily represent installment fees. Fee revenues for the life insurance segment represent separate account investment management fees.

•	Our investments’ revenues consist of pretax net investment income and investment gains and losses.

•	Other revenues are primarily finance income and earned premiums of Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global.

•	Income before income taxes for the insurance segments is defined as underwriting profit or loss.

◦	For commercial lines, personal lines and excess and surplus lines insurance segments, we calculate underwriting profit or loss as premiums earned and fee revenue minus loss and loss expenses and underwriting expenses incurred.

◦	For the life insurance segment, we calculate underwriting profit or loss as premiums earned and fee revenue, minus contract holders’ benefits and expenses incurred, plus investment interest credited to contract holders.

•	Income before income taxes for the investments segment is net investment income plus investment gains and losses for investments of the entire company, minus investment interest credited to contract holders of the life insurance segment.

•	Loss before income taxes for the Other category is primarily due to interest expense from debt of the parent company, operating expenses of our headquarters and premiums earned minus loss and loss expenses and underwriting expenses of Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global.

---

---

---

---

•	information required to be disclosed in the company’s reports under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s rules and forms, and

•	such information is accumulated and communicated to the company’s management, including its chief executive officer and chief financial officer, as appropriate, to allow for timely decisions regarding required disclosures.

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---