CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP - Quarter Report: 2022 September (Form 10-Q)

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-Q

(Mark one)

☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934.

For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2022.

☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934.

For the transition period from _____________________ to _____________________.

Commission file number 0-4604

CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Ohio

31-0746871

(State or other jurisdiction of
incorporation or organization)

(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

6200 S. Gilmore Road,

Fairfield,

Ohio

45014-5141

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip code)

Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (513) 870-2000

N/A

(Former name, former address and former fiscal year, if changed since last report)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class

Trading Symbol(s)

Name of each exchange on which registered

Common stock

CINF

Nasdaq Global Select Market

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.

☑Yes ☐ No

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit such files).

☑Yes ☐ No

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a nonaccelerated filer, a smaller reporting company or an emerging growth company. See definition of "large accelerated filer," "accelerated filer," "smaller reporting company" and "emerging growth company" in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.

☑ Large accelerated filer ☐ Accelerated filer ☐ Nonaccelerated filer ☐ Smaller reporting company

☐ Emerging growth company

☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act):

☐Yes ☑ No

As of October 26, 2022, there were 157,184,308 shares of common stock outstanding.

CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

FORM 10-Q FOR THE QUARTER ENDED September 30, 2022

TABLE OF CONTENTS


Part I – Financial Information			3

Item 1. Financial Statements (unaudited)			3

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets			3

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income			4

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income			5

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Shareholders’ Equity			6

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows			7

Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited)			8

Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations			29

Safe Harbor Statement			29

Corporate Financial Highlights			32

Financial Results			40

Liquidity and Capital Resources			57

Other Matters			61

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk			61

Item 4. Controls and Procedures			67

Part II – Other Information			69

Item 1. Legal Proceedings			69

Item 1A. Risk Factors			69

Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds			70

Item 6. Exhibits			71

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

Page 2

Part I – Financial Information

Item 1. Financial Statements (unaudited)

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets


(Dollars in millions, except per share data)	September 30,		December 31,
	2022		2021
Assets
Investments
Fixed maturities, at fair value (amortized cost: 2022—$12,812; 2021—$12,230)	$	11,734	$	13,022
Equity securities, at fair value (cost: 2022—$4,292; 2021—$4,121)	8,840		11,315

Other invested assets	414		329
Total investments	20,988		24,666
Cash and cash equivalents	1,083		1,139

Investment income receivable	152		144
Finance receivable	87		98
Premiums receivable	2,403		2,053
Reinsurance recoverable	561		570
Prepaid reinsurance premiums	91		78
Deferred policy acquisition costs	1,036		905
Land, building and equipment, net, for company use (accumulated depreciation: 2022—$317; 2021—$303)	204		205
Other assets	706		570
Separate accounts	888		959
Total assets	$	28,199	$	31,387

Liabilities
Insurance reserves
Loss and loss expense reserves	$	8,113	$	7,305
Life policy and investment contract reserves	3,053		3,014
Unearned premiums	3,798		3,271
Other liabilities	1,249		1,092
Deferred income tax	780		1,744
Note payable	44		54
Long-term debt and lease obligations	843		843
Separate accounts	888		959
Total liabilities	18,768		18,282

Commitments and contingent liabilities (Note 12)

Shareholders' Equity
Common stock, par value—$2 per share; (authorized: 2022 and 2021—500 million shares; issued: 2022 and 2021—198.3 million shares)	397		397
Paid-in capital	1,379		1,356
Retained earnings	10,797		12,625
Accumulated other comprehensive income	(828)		648
Treasury stock at cost (2022—41.2 million shares and 2021—38.0 million shares)	(2,314)		(1,921)
Total shareholders' equity	9,431		13,105
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity	$	28,199	$	31,387

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

Page 3

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income


(Dollars in millions, except per share data)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Revenues
Earned premiums	$	1,882	$	1,669	$	5,345	$	4,806
Investment income, net of expenses	193		179		573		528
Investment gains and losses, net	(674)		(70)		(2,494)		954
Fee revenues	5		4		12		11
Other revenues	2		3		7		8
Total revenues	1,408		1,785		3,443		6,307
Benefits and Expenses
Insurance losses and contract holders' benefits	1,418		1,072		3,766		2,990
Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses	551		511		1,604		1,440
Interest expense	14		13		40		39
Other operating expenses	4		5		13		14
Total benefits and expenses	1,987		1,601		5,423		4,483
Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes	(579)		184		(1,980)		1,824
Provision (Benefit) for Income Taxes
Current	19		55		90		166
Deferred	(180)		(24)		(571)		182
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes	(161)		31		(481)		348
Net Income (Loss)	$	(418)	$	153	$	(1,499)	$	1,476
Per Common Share
Net income (loss)—basic	$	(2.64)	$	0.95	$	(9.41)	$	9.16
Net income (loss)—diluted	(2.64)		0.94		(9.41)		9.07

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

Page 4

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Net Income (Loss)	$	(418)	$	153	$	(1,499)	$	1,476
Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Change in unrealized gains and losses on investments, net of tax (benefit) of $(109), $(19), $(393) and $(33), respectively	(405)		(69)		(1,477)		(119)
Amortization of pension actuarial loss and prior service cost, net of tax of $0, $1, $0 and $2, respectively	—		1		—		5
Change in life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other, net of tax of $0, $0, $0 and $2, respectively	—		—		1		8
Other comprehensive loss	(405)		(68)		(1,476)		(106)
Comprehensive Income (Loss)	$	(823)	$	85	$	(2,975)	$	1,370

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

Page 5

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Shareholders' Equity


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Common Stock
Beginning of period	$	397	$	397	$	397	$	397
Share-based awards	—		—		—		—
End of period	397		397		397		397

Paid-In Capital
Beginning of period	1,367		1,334		1,356		1,328
Share-based awards	1		1		(11)		(13)
Share-based compensation	9		8		29		25
Other	2		1		5		4
End of period	1,379		1,344		1,379		1,344

Retained Earnings
Beginning of period	11,324		11,205		12,625		10,085


Net income (loss)	(418)		153		(1,499)		1,476
Dividends declared	(109)		(101)		(329)		(304)
End of period	10,797		11,257		10,797		11,257

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income
Beginning of period	(423)		731		648		769


Other comprehensive loss	(405)		(68)		(1,476)		(106)
End of period	(828)		663		(828)		663

Treasury Stock
Beginning of period	(2,112)		(1,809)		(1,921)		(1,790)
Share-based awards	1		1		13		16
Shares acquired - share repurchase authorization	(203)		(12)		(399)		(40)
Shares acquired - share-based compensation plans	—		—		(8)		(7)
Other	—		—		1		1
End of period	(2,314)		(1,820)		(2,314)		(1,820)

Total Shareholders' Equity	$	9,431	$	11,841	$	9,431	$	11,841

(In millions, except per common share)
Common Stock - Shares Outstanding
Beginning of period	159.2		161.1		160.3		160.9
Share-based awards	—		0.1		0.5		0.6
Shares acquired - share repurchase authorization	(2.1)		(0.1)		(3.7)		(0.4)


End of period	157.1		161.1		157.1		161.1

Dividends declared per common share	$	0.69	$	0.63	$	2.07	$	1.89

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

Page 6

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows


(Dollars in millions)	Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income (loss)	$	(1,499)	$	1,476
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization	81		69
Investment gains and losses, net	2,513		(933)
Share-based compensation	29		25
Interest credited to contract holders	34		33
Deferred income tax expense	(571)		182
Changes in:
Investment income receivable	(8)		(6)
Premiums and reinsurance receivable	(354)		(280)
Deferred policy acquisition costs	(118)		(84)
Other assets	(6)		(12)
Loss and loss expense reserves	808		546
Life policy and investment contract reserves	52		76
Unearned premiums	527		382
Other liabilities	3		95
Current income tax receivable/payable	(70)		(51)
Net cash provided by operating activities	1,421		1,518
Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Sale of fixed maturities	93		88
Call or maturity of fixed maturities	818		1,049
Sale of equity securities	333		123
Purchase of fixed maturities	(1,445)		(1,831)
Purchase of equity securities	(380)		(276)


Investment in finance receivables	(18)		(30)
Collection of finance receivables	30		28
Investment in building and equipment	(12)		(12)
Change in other invested assets, net	(65)		(30)
Net cash used in investing activities	(646)		(891)
Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Payment of cash dividends to shareholders	(316)		(295)
Shares acquired - share repurchase authorization	(399)		(40)
Changes in note payable	(10)		5
Proceeds from stock options exercised	8		10
Contract holders' funds deposited	54		64
Contract holders' funds withdrawn	(98)		(104)
Other	(70)		(82)
Net cash used in financing activities	(831)		(442)
Net change in cash and cash equivalents	(56)		185
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year	1,139		900
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period	$	1,083	$	1,085
Supplemental Disclosures of Cash Flow Information:
Interest paid	$	27	$	26
Income taxes paid	144		205
Noncash Activities

Equipment acquired under finance lease obligations	$	13	$	9
Share-based compensation	24		22
Other assets and other liabilities	203		137

Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

Page 7

NOTES TO CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (UNAUDITED)

NOTE 1 — Accounting Policies

The condensed consolidated financial statements include the accounts of Cincinnati Financial Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries, each of which is wholly owned. These statements are presented in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). All intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated in consolidation.

The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Our actual results could differ from those estimates. Certain financial information that is normally included in annual financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP, but that is not required for interim reporting purposes, has been condensed or omitted.

Our September 30, 2022, condensed consolidated financial statements are unaudited. We believe that we have made all adjustments, consisting only of normal recurring accruals, that are necessary for fair presentation. These condensed consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements included in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K. The results of operations for interim periods do not necessarily indicate results to be expected for the full year.

The company continues to monitor the impact of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. The company cannot predict the impact the pandemic will have on its future consolidated financial position, results of operations and cash flows, however the impact could be material.

Pending Accounting Updates

ASU 2018-12, Financial Services - Insurance (Topic 944): Targeted Improvements to the Accounting for Long-Duration Contracts

In August 2018, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2018-12, Financial Services - Insurance (Topic 944): Targeted Improvements to the Accounting for Long-Duration Contracts. ASU 2018-12 requires changes to the measurement and disclosure of long-duration insurance contracts. In November 2020, the FASB issued an ASU that delayed the effective date of ASU 2018-12 to interim and annual reporting periods beginning after December 15, 2022. We plan to adopt these ASUs on a modified retrospective basis on January 1, 2023.

Related to the company's term and whole life products included in life policy and investment contract reserves, the new guidance requires that cash flow assumptions be reviewed at least annually to determine any necessary updates. Additionally, the discount rate assumption is required to be updated quarterly based on upper-medium grade fixed-income instrument yields (market value discount rates). The life policy and investment contract reserves balance is adjusted through insurance losses and contract holders' benefits for cash flow assumption updates and through accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) for discount rate updates.

These ASUs also amend the previous guidance related to life deferred policy acquisition costs by requiring amortization of those costs on a constant level basis for a group of contracts that approximates straight-line and the removal of shadow deferred policy acquisition costs for universal life and deferred annuity products. These ASUs also require entities to provide additional disclosures including disaggregated rollforwards of the life policy and investment contract reserves, separate account liabilities and life deferred policy acquisition costs.

Based on current conditions, management estimates at September 30, 2022, that adoption would not have a material impact and would have resulted in an after-tax increase to shareholders' equity of approximately $50 million. The ultimate impact of adoption of these ASUs will be affected by the market value discount rates and other assumptions determined at the January 1, 2023, adoption date and could be material. The process of addressing necessary remaining implementation-related items, including modifications to reporting and analysis capabilities as well as actuarial systems and associated data processes is substantially complete.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

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NOTE 2 – Investments

The following table provides amortized cost, gross unrealized gains, gross unrealized losses and fair value for our fixed-maturity securities:


(Dollars in millions)	Amortized cost		Gross unrealized				Fair value
At September 30, 2022			gains		losses
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	7,307	$	33	$	661	$	6,679
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	4,911		4		433		4,482
Commercial mortgage-backed	253		—		13		240
United States government	193		—		5		188
Government-sponsored enterprises	122		—		3		119
Foreign government	26		—		—		26

Total	$	12,812	$	37	$	1,115	$	11,734






At December 31, 2021
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	7,043	$	467	$	13	$	7,497
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	4,768		330		3		5,095
Commercial mortgage-backed	264		9		—		273
United States government	121		2		—		123
Government-sponsored enterprises	8		—		—		8
Foreign government	26		—		—		26






Total	$	12,230	$	808	$	16	$	13,022

The net unrealized investment losses in our fixed-maturity portfolio at September 30, 2022, are primarily due to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and a widening of corporate credit spreads. Our commercial mortgage-backed securities had an average rating of Aa2/AA- and Aa2/AA at September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, respectively.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

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The table below provides fair values and gross unrealized losses by investment category and by the duration of the securities' continuous unrealized loss positions:


(Dollars in millions)	Less than 12 months				12 months or more				Total
At September 30, 2022	Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	5,835	$	535	$	376	$	126	$	6,211	$	661
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	3,831		414		48		19		3,879		433
Commercial mortgage-backed	225		11		14		2		239		13
United States government	173		5		12		—		185		5
Government-sponsored enterprises	101		3		3		—		104		3
Foreign government	21		—		—		—		21		—
Total	$	10,186	$	968	$	453	$	147	$	10,639	$	1,115





At December 31, 2021
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	861	$	13	$	15	$	—	$	876	$	13
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	105		2		2		1		107		3
Commercial mortgage-backed	10		—		11		—		21		—
United States government	48		—		—		—		48		—
Government-sponsored enterprises	7		—		—		—		7		—
Foreign government	16		—		—		—		16		—





Total	$	1,047	$	15	$	28	$	1	$	1,075	$	16

Contractual maturity dates for fixed-maturities securities were:


(Dollars in millions)	Amortized cost		Fair value		% of fair value
At September 30, 2022
Maturity dates:
Due in one year or less	$	690	$	687	5.9	%
Due after one year through five years	3,861		3,717		31.7
Due after five years through ten years	3,573		3,334		28.4
Due after ten years	4,688		3,996		34.0
Total	$	12,812	$	11,734	100.0	%

Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities when there is a right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.

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Page 10

The following table provides investment income and investment gains and losses, net:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Investment income:
Interest	$	129	$	121	$	376	$	356
Dividends	66		61		203		179
Other	3		1		6		4
Total	198		183		585		539
Less investment expenses	5		4		12		11
Total	$	193	$	179	$	573	$	528

Investment gains and losses, net:
Equity securities:
Investment gains and losses on securities sold, net	$	16	$	(1)	$	34	$	6
Unrealized gains and losses on securities still held, net	(705)		(104)		(2,568)		869

Subtotal	(689)		(105)		(2,534)		875
Fixed maturities:
Gross realized gains	—		10		6		24
Gross realized losses	—		(1)		(3)		(3)
Write-down of impaired securities	—		(1)		—		(1)
Subtotal	—		8		3		20

Other	15		27		37		59

Total	$	(674)	$	(70)	$	(2,494)	$	954

The fair value of our equity portfolio was $8.840 billion and $11.315 billion at September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, respectively. At September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:AAPL), an equity holding, was our largest single investment holding with a fair value of $638 million and $862 million, which was 7.6% and 7.9% of our publicly traded common equities portfolio and 3.1% and 3.5% of the total investment portfolio, respectively.

At September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, the allowance for credit losses was $1 million and less than

$1 million, respectively. Changes in the amount during each period were less than $1 million. During the three months ended September 30, 2022, there were no fixed-maturity securities that were written down to fair value due to an intention to be sold. During the nine months ended September 30, 2022, there were two fixed-maturity securities that were written down to fair value due to an intention to be sold resulting in impairment charges of less than $1 million. During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2021, there were five fixed-maturity securities that were written down to fair value due to an intention to be sold.

At September 30, 2022, 4,049 fixed-maturity securities with a total unrealized loss of $1.115 billion were in an unrealized loss position. Of that total, 118 fixed-maturity securities had fair values below 70% of amortized cost. At December 31, 2021, 278 fixed-maturity securities with a total unrealized loss of $16 million were in an unrealized loss position. Of that total, no fixed-maturity securities had fair values below 70% of amortized cost.

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NOTE 3 – Fair Value Measurements

In accordance with accounting guidance for fair value measurements and disclosures, we categorized our financial instruments, based on the priority of the observable and market-based data for the valuation technique used, into a three-level fair value hierarchy. The fair value hierarchy gives the highest priority to quoted prices with readily available independent data in active markets for identical assets or liabilities (Level 1) and the lowest priority to unobservable market inputs (Level 3). When various inputs for measurement fall within different levels of the fair value hierarchy, the lowest observable input that has a significant impact on fair value measurement is used. Our valuation techniques have not changed from those used at December 31, 2021, and ultimately management determines fair value. See our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 3, Fair Value Measurements, Page 137, for information on characteristics and valuation techniques used in determining fair value.

Fair Value Disclosures for Assets

The following tables illustrate the fair value hierarchy for those assets measured at fair value on a recurring basis at September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021. We do not have any liabilities carried at fair value.


(Dollars in millions)	Quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1)		Significant other observable inputs (Level 2)		Significant unobservable inputs (Level 3)		Total
At September 30, 2022
Fixed maturities, available for sale:
Corporate	$	—	$	6,679	$	—	$	6,679
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		4,482		—		4,482
Commercial mortgage-backed	—		240		—		240
United States government	188		—		—		188
Government-sponsored enterprises	—		119		—		119
Foreign government	—		26		—		26


Subtotal	188		11,546		—		11,734
Common equities	8,433		—		—		8,433
Nonredeemable preferred equities	—		407		—		407

Separate accounts taxable fixed maturities	—		811		—		811
Top Hat savings plan mutual funds and common equity (included in Other assets)	51		—		—		51
Total	$	8,672	$	12,764	$	—	$	21,436

At December 31, 2021
Fixed maturities, available for sale:
Corporate	$	—	$	7,497	$	—	$	7,497
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		5,095		—		5,095
Commercial mortgage-backed	—		273		—		273
United States government	123		—		—		123
Government-sponsored enterprises	—		8		—		8
Foreign government	—		26		—		26

Subtotal	123		12,899		—		13,022
Common equities	10,862		—		—		10,862
Nonredeemable preferred equities	—		453		—		453
Separate accounts taxable fixed maturities	—		948		—		948
Top Hat savings plan mutual funds and common equity (included in Other assets)	64		—		—		64
Total	$	11,049	$	14,300	$	—	$	25,349

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Page 12

We also held Level 1 cash and cash equivalents of $1.083 billion and $1.139 billion at September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, respectively.

Fair Value Disclosures for Assets and Liabilities Not Carried at Fair Value

The disclosures below are presented to provide information about the effects of current market conditions on financial instruments that are not reported at fair value in our condensed consolidated financial statements.

This table summarizes the book value and principal amounts of our long-term debt:


(Dollars in millions)			Book value				Principal amount
Interest rate	Year of issue		September 30,		December 31,		September 30,		December 31,
			2022		2021		2022		2021
6.900%	1998	Senior debentures, due 2028	$	27	$	27	$	28	$	28
6.920%	2005	Senior debentures, due 2028	391		391		391		391
6.125%	2004	Senior notes, due 2034	371		371		374		374
Total			$	789	$	789	$	793	$	793

The following table shows fair values of our note payable and long-term debt:


(Dollars in millions)	Quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1)		Significant other observable inputs (Level 2)		Significant unobservable inputs (Level 3)		Total
At September 30, 2022
Note payable	$	—	$	44	$	—	$	44
6.900% senior debentures, due 2028	—		29		—		29
6.920% senior debentures, due 2028	—		415		—		415
6.125% senior notes, due 2034	—		384		—		384
Total	$	—	$	872	$	—	$	872

At December 31, 2021
Note payable	$	—	$	54	$	—	$	54
6.900% senior debentures, due 2028	—		34		—		34
6.920% senior debentures, due 2028	—		501		—		501
6.125% senior notes, due 2034	—		510		—		510
Total	$	—	$	1,099	$	—	$	1,099

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The following table shows the fair value of our life policy loans included in other invested assets and the fair values of our deferred annuities and structured settlements included in life policy and investment contract reserves:


(Dollars in millions)	Quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1)		Significant other observable inputs (Level 2)		Significant unobservable inputs (Level 3)		Total
At September 30, 2022
Life policy loans	$	—	$	—	$	37	$	37

Deferred annuities	—		—		612		612
Structured settlements	—		139		—		139
Total	$	—	$	139	$	612	$	751

At December 31, 2021
Life policy loans	$	—	$	—	$	44	$	44

Deferred annuities	—		—		778		778
Structured settlements	—		201		—		201
Total	$	—	$	201	$	778	$	979

Outstanding principal and interest for these life policy loans totaled $31 million at September 30, 2022, and
December 31, 2021.

Recorded reserves for the deferred annuities were $753 million and $762 million at September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, respectively. Recorded reserves for the structured settlements were $131 million and $136 million at September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, respectively.

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NOTE 4 – Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expenses

This table summarizes activity for our consolidated property casualty loss and loss expense reserves:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Gross loss and loss expense reserves, beginning of period	$	7,603	$	6,955	$	7,229	$	6,677
Less reinsurance recoverable	287		274		327		277
Net loss and loss expense reserves, beginning of period	7,316		6,681		6,902		6,400





Net incurred loss and loss expenses related to:
Current accident year	1,391		1,090		3,687		3,072
Prior accident years	(43)		(102)		(143)		(331)
Total incurred	1,348		988		3,544		2,741
Net paid loss and loss expenses related to:
Current accident year	484		416		1,021		893
Prior accident years	464		349		1,709		1,344
Total paid	948		765		2,730		2,237
Net loss and loss expense reserves, end of period	7,716		6,904		7,716		6,904
Plus reinsurance recoverable	329		322		329		322
Gross loss and loss expense reserves, end of period	$	8,045	$	7,226	$	8,045	$	7,226

We use actuarial methods, models and judgment to estimate, as of a financial statement date, the property casualty loss and loss expense reserves required to pay for and settle all outstanding insured claims, including incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims, as of that date. The actuarial estimate is subject to review and adjustment by an inter-departmental committee that includes actuarial, claims, underwriting, loss prevention and accounting management. This committee is familiar with relevant company and industry business, claims and underwriting trends, as well as general economic and legal trends that could affect future loss and loss expense payments. The amount we will actually have to pay for claims can be highly uncertain. This uncertainty, together with the size of our reserves, makes the loss and loss expense reserves our most significant estimate. The reserve for loss and loss expenses in the condensed consolidated balance sheets also included $68 million at September 30, 2022, and $66 million at September 30, 2021, for certain life and health loss and loss expense reserves.

For the three months ended September 30, 2022, we experienced $43 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including $4 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $8 million of favorable development in personal lines and $7 million of favorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $24 million for the commercial property line and $16 million for the workers' compensation line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss adjustment expense for these lines. This was partially offset by unfavorable reserve development of $23 million for the commercial casualty line and $16 million for the commercial auto line.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2022, we experienced $143 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including $51 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $56 million of favorable development in personal lines and $13 million of favorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $43 million for the workers' compensation line and $36 million for the commercial property line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss adjustment expense for these lines. This was partially offset by unfavorable reserve development of $25 million for the commercial casualty line and $15 million for the commercial auto line. Within personal lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $51 million for the homeowner line.

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For the three months ended September 30, 2021, we experienced $102 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including $107 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $3 million of favorable development in personal lines and $3 million of unfavorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $52 million for the commercial casualty line and $34 million for the commercial property line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss adjustment expense for these lines.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, we experienced $331 million of favorable development on prior accident years, including $276 million of favorable development in commercial lines, $35 million of favorable development in personal lines and $6 million of unfavorable development in excess and surplus lines. Within commercial lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $85 million for the commercial casualty line, $68 million for the commercial property line, $59 million for the workers' compensation line and $44 million for the commercial auto line due to reduced uncertainty of prior accident year loss and loss adjustment expense for these lines. Within personal lines, we recognized favorable reserve development of $24 million in personal auto.

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NOTE 5 – Life Policy and Investment Contract Reserves

We establish the reserves for traditional life insurance policies based on expected expenses, mortality, morbidity, withdrawal rates, timing of claim presentation and investment yields, including a provision for uncertainty. Once these assumptions are established, they generally are maintained throughout the lives of the contracts. We use both our own experience and industry experience, adjusted for historical trends, in arriving at our assumptions for expected mortality, morbidity and withdrawal rates as well as for expected expenses. We base our assumptions for expected investment income on our own experience adjusted for current and future economic conditions.

We establish reserves for the company's deferred annuity, universal life and structured settlement policies equal to the cumulative account balances, which include premium deposits plus credited interest less charges and withdrawals. Some of our universal life policies contain no-lapse guarantee provisions. For these policies, we establish a reserve in addition to the account balance, based on expected no-lapse guarantee benefits and expected policy assessments.

This table summarizes our life policy and investment contract reserves:


(Dollars in millions)	September 30, 2022		December 31, 2021
Life policy reserves:
Ordinary/traditional life	$	1,432	$	1,376
Other	52		52
Subtotal	1,484		1,428
Investment contract reserves:
Deferred annuities	753		762
Universal life	677		679
Structured settlements	131		136
Other	8		9
Subtotal	1,569		1,586
Total life policy and investment contract reserves	$	3,053	$	3,014

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NOTE 6 – Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs

Expenses directly related to successfully acquired insurance policies – primarily commissions, premium taxes and underwriting costs – are deferred and amortized over the terms of the policies. We update our acquisition cost assumptions periodically to reflect actual experience, and we evaluate the costs for recoverability. The table below shows the deferred policy acquisition costs and asset reconciliation.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Property casualty:
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, beginning of period	$	723	$	630	$	602	$	542
Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs	325		287		1,064		924
Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs	(342)		(300)		(960)		(849)
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, end of period	$	706	$	617	$	706	$	617

Life:
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, beginning of period	$	322	$	294	$	303	$	263
Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs	16		15		46		44
Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs	(12)		(12)		(33)		(35)
Shadow deferred policy acquisition costs	4		1		14		26
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, end of period	$	330	$	298	$	330	$	298

Consolidated:
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, beginning of period	$	1,045	$	924	$	905	$	805
Capitalized deferred policy acquisition costs	341		302		1,110		968
Amortized deferred policy acquisition costs	(354)		(312)		(993)		(884)
Shadow deferred policy acquisition costs	4		1		14		26
Deferred policy acquisition costs asset, end of period	$	1,036	$	915	$	1,036	$	915

No premium deficiencies were recorded in the condensed consolidated statements of income, as the sum of the anticipated loss and loss expenses, policyholder dividends and unamortized deferred acquisition expenses did not exceed the related unearned premiums and anticipated investment income.

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NOTE 7 – Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income

Accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) includes changes in unrealized gains and losses on investments, changes in pension obligations and changes in life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other as follows:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,
	2022						2021
	Before tax		Income tax		Net		Before tax		Income tax		Net
Investments:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	(564)	$	(119)	$	(445)	$	962	$	201	$	761


OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	(514)		(109)		(405)		(80)		(18)		(62)
Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	—		—		—		(8)		(1)		(7)
OCI	(514)		(109)		(405)		(88)		(19)		(69)
AOCI, end of period	$	(1,078)	$	(228)	$	(850)	$	874	$	182	$	692

Pension obligations:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	27	$	7	$	20	$	(36)	$	(6)	$	(30)
OCI excluding amortization recognized in net income	—		—		—		—		—		—
Amortization recognized in net income	—		—		—		2		1		1
OCI	—		—		—		2		1		1
AOCI, end of period	$	27	$	7	$	20	$	(34)	$	(5)	$	(29)

Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	2	$	—	$	2	$	—	$	—	$	—
OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	—		—		—		—		—		—
Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	—		—		—		—		—		—
OCI	—		—		—		—		—		—
AOCI, end of period	$	2	$	—	$	2	$	—	$	—	$	—

Summary of AOCI:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	(535)	$	(112)	$	(423)	$	926	$	195	$	731


Investments OCI	(514)		(109)		(405)		(88)		(19)		(69)
Pension obligations OCI	—		—		—		2		1		1
Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other OCI	—		—		—		—		—		—
Total OCI	(514)		(109)		(405)		(86)		(18)		(68)
AOCI, end of period	$	(1,049)	$	(221)	$	(828)	$	840	$	177	$	663

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(Dollars in millions)	Nine months ended September 30,
	2022						2021
	Before tax		Income tax		Net		Before tax		Income tax		Net
Investments:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	792	$	165	$	627	$	1,026	$	215	$	811


OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	(1,867)		(392)		(1,475)		(132)		(29)		(103)
Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	(3)		(1)		(2)		(20)		(4)		(16)
OCI	(1,870)		(393)		(1,477)		(152)		(33)		(119)
AOCI, end of period	$	(1,078)	$	(228)	$	(850)	$	874	$	182	$	692

Pension obligations:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	27	$	7	$	20	$	(41)	$	(7)	$	(34)
OCI excluding amortization recognized in net income	—		—		—		2		1		1
Amortization recognized in net income	—		—		—		5		1		4
OCI	—		—		—		7		2		5
AOCI, end of period	$	27	$	7	$	20	$	(34)	$	(5)	$	(29)

Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	1	$	—	$	1	$	(10)	$	(2)	$	(8)
OCI before investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	1		—		1		10		2		8
Investment gains and losses, net, recognized in net income	—		—		—		—		—		—
OCI	1		—		1		10		2		8
AOCI, end of period	$	2	$	—	$	2	$	—	$	—	$	—

Summary of AOCI:
AOCI, beginning of period	$	820	$	172	$	648	$	975	$	206	$	769


Investments OCI	(1,870)		(393)		(1,477)		(152)		(33)		(119)
Pension obligations OCI	—		—		—		7		2		5
Life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other OCI	1		—		1		10		2		8
Total OCI	(1,869)		(393)		(1,476)		(135)		(29)		(106)
AOCI, end of period	$	(1,049)	$	(221)	$	(828)	$	840	$	177	$	663

Investment gains and losses, net, and life deferred acquisition costs, life policy reserves and other investment gains and losses, net, are recorded in the investment gains and losses, net, line item in the condensed consolidated statements of income. Amortization on pension obligations is recorded in the insurance losses and contract holders' benefits and underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses line items in the condensed consolidated statements of income.

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NOTE 8 – Reinsurance

Primary components of our property casualty reinsurance assumed operations include involuntary and voluntary assumed as well as contracts from our reinsurance assumed operations, known as Cincinnati Re. Primary components of our ceded reinsurance include a property per risk treaty, property excess treaty, casualty per occurrence treaty, casualty excess treaty, property catastrophe treaty and retrocessions on our reinsurance assumed operations. Management’s decisions about the appropriate level of risk retention are affected by various factors, including changes in our underwriting practices, capacity to retain risks and reinsurance market conditions.

The table below summarizes our consolidated property casualty insurance net written premiums, earned premiums and incurred loss and loss expenses:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Direct written premiums	$	1,730	$	1,527	$	5,304	$	4,721
Assumed written premiums	92		66		548		432
Ceded written premiums	(72)		(55)		(239)		(208)
Net written premiums	$	1,750	$	1,538	$	5,613	$	4,945

Direct earned premiums	$	1,743	$	1,553	$	4,935	$	4,447
Assumed earned premiums	161		117		416		327
Ceded earned premiums	(95)		(74)		(227)		(189)
Earned premiums	$	1,809	$	1,596	$	5,124	$	4,585

Direct incurred loss and loss expenses	$	1,247	$	876	$	3,316	$	2,525
Assumed incurred loss and loss expenses	164		165		304		297
Ceded incurred loss and loss expenses	(63)		(53)		(76)		(81)
Incurred loss and loss expenses	$	1,348	$	988	$	3,544	$	2,741

Our life insurance company purchases reinsurance for protection of a portion of the risks that are written. Primary components of our life reinsurance program include individual mortality coverage, aggregate catastrophe and accidental death coverage in excess of certain deductibles.

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The table below summarizes our consolidated life insurance earned premiums and contract holders' benefits incurred:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Direct earned premiums	$	92	$	93	$	278	$	278

Ceded earned premiums	(19)		(20)		(57)		(57)
Earned premiums	$	73	$	73	$	221	$	221

Direct contract holders' benefits incurred	93		103		298		310

Ceded contract holders' benefits incurred	(23)		(19)		(76)		(61)
Contract holders' benefits incurred	$	70	$	84	$	222	$	249

The ceded benefits incurred can vary depending on the type of life insurance policy held and the year the policy was issued.

At September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, the allowance for uncollectible property casualty premiums was $15 million and $14 million, respectively. At September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, the allowances for credit losses on other premiums receivable and recoverable assets were immaterial.

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NOTE 9 – Income Taxes

The differences between the 21% statutory federal income tax rate and our effective income tax rate were as follows:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,								Nine months ended September 30,
	2022				2021				2022				2021
Tax at statutory rate:	$	(122)	21.0	%	$	39	21.0	%	$	(416)	21.0	%	$	383	21.0	%
Increase (decrease) resulting from:
Tax-exempt income from municipal bonds	(5)		0.9		(5)		(2.7)		(15)		0.8		(15)		(0.8)
Dividend received exclusion	(5)		0.9		(5)		(2.7)		(15)		0.8		(14)		(0.8)
Release of unrecognized tax benefit	(34)		5.9		—		—		(34)		1.7		—		—
Other	5		(0.9)		2		1.2		(1)		—		(6)		(0.3)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes	$	(161)	27.8	%	$	31	16.8	%	$	(481)	24.3	%	$	348	19.1	%

The provision (benefit) for federal income taxes is based upon filing a consolidated income tax return for the company and its domestic subsidiaries.

We continue to believe that after considering all positive and negative evidence of taxable income in the carryback and carryforward periods as permitted by law, it is more likely than not that all of the deferred tax assets on our U.S. domestic operations will be realized. As a result, we have no valuation allowance for our U.S. domestic operations at September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021. As more fully discussed below, we do carry a valuation allowance on the deferred tax assets related to Cincinnati Global Underwriting Ltd.SM (Cincinnati Global).

Enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (Tax Act) was enacted on August 16, 2022. Along with other changes, the Tax Act created a new corporate alternative minimum tax (AMT) for certain corporations based on 15% of adjusted financial statement income for the taxable year. In addition, the Tax Act imposes a 1% excise tax on corporate stock repurchases. The effective date of these two provisions is January 1, 2023. We do not expect the enactment of the Tax Act to have a material impact on our financial statements. Any excise tax incurred on corporate stock repurchases will be recognized as part of the cost basis of the treasury stock acquired and not reported as part of income tax expense.

Unrecognized Tax Benefits

During the current quarter, we received favorable guidance from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) supporting our tax position related to our unrecognized tax benefit set up in 2018. As a result of this guidance, we released our $34 million gross unrecognized tax benefit liability at September 30, 2022. The $34 million release is recognized as an additional income tax benefit and is shown separately in our effective income tax rate reconciliation. The following is a tabular reconciliation of the total amounts of unrecognized tax benefits:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Gross unrecognized tax benefits, beginning of period	$	34	$	34	$	34	$	34
Gross increase in prior year positions	—		—		—		—
Gross decrease in prior year positions	(34)		—		(34)		—
Gross increase in current year positions	—		—		—		—
Settlements with tax authorities	—		—		—		—
Lapse of statute of limitations	—		—		—		—
Gross unrecognized tax benefits, end of period	$	—	$	34	$	—	$	34

During the current quarter, the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation completed review of our 2017 tax return and related carryback claims with no change to our returns as filed. Our 2018 tax year remains open and we recently received notice from the IRS of their intent to audit tax year ended December 31, 2020.

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Cincinnati Global

As a result of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, Cincinnati Global increased its net deferred tax assets by $7 million and decreased it by $4 million with an offsetting increase of $7 million and decrease of $4 million to the valuation allowance. At September 30, 2022, Cincinnati Global had a net deferred tax asset of $49 million and an offsetting valuation allowance of $49 million.

Deferred tax assets are reduced by a valuation allowance when management believes it is more likely than not that some, or all, of the deferred tax assets will not be realized. After considering all positive and negative evidence, we continue to believe it is appropriate to carry a valuation allowance at September 30, 2022.

At September 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, Cincinnati Global had operating loss carryforwards in the United States of $6 million and $8 million, respectively, and in the United Kingdom of $123 million and $130 million, respectively. These Cincinnati Global losses can only be utilized within the Cincinnati Global group in both the United States and in the United Kingdom and cannot offset the income of our domestic operations in the United States.

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NOTE 10 – Net Income (Loss) Per Common Share

Basic earnings per share are computed based on the weighted average number of common shares outstanding. Diluted earnings per share are computed based on the weighted average number of common and dilutive potential common shares outstanding using the treasury stock method. The table shows calculations for basic and diluted earnings per share:


(In millions, except per share data)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Numerator:
Net income (loss)—basic and diluted	$	(418)	$	153	$	(1,499)	$	1,476
Denominator:
Basic weighted-average common shares outstanding	158.0		161.1		159.3		161.1
Effect of share-based awards:
Stock options	—		1.2		—		1.1
Nonvested shares	—		0.6		—		0.6
Diluted weighted-average shares	158.0		162.9		159.3		162.8
Earnings (loss) per share:
Basic	$	(2.64)	$	0.95	$	(9.41)	$	9.16
Diluted	$	(2.64)	$	0.94	$	(9.41)	$	9.07
Number of anti-dilutive share-based awards	2.3		0.4		1.9		0.9

The above table shows the number of anti-dilutive share-based awards for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022 and 2021. In accordance with Accounting Standards Codification 260, Earnings per Share, the assumed exercise of share-based awards were excluded from the computation of diluted loss per share for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, because their exercise would have anti-dilutive effects. See our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 17, Share-Based Associate Compensation Plans, Page 169, for information about share-based awards.

NOTE 11 – Employee Retirement Benefits

The following summarizes the components of net periodic (benefit) cost for our qualified and supplemental pension plans:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Service cost	$	2	$	2	$	7	$	7
Non-service (benefit) costs:
Interest cost	3		2		8		7
Expected return on plan assets	(6)		(5)		(17)		(16)
Amortization of actuarial loss and prior service cost	—		2		—		5
Other	—		—		—		2
Total non-service benefit	(3)		(1)		(9)		(2)
Net periodic (benefit) cost	$	(1)	$	1	$	(2)	$	5

See our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 13, Employee Retirement Benefits, Page 162, for information on our retirement benefits. The net periodic (benefit) cost is allocated in the same proportion primarily to the underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses line item with the remainder allocated to the insurance losses and contract holders' benefits line item on the condensed consolidated statements of income for both 2022 and 2021.

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We made matching contributions totaling $6 million and $7 million to our 401(k) and Top Hat savings plans during the third quarter of 2022 and 2021 and contributions of $20 million and $18 million for the first nine months of 2022 and 2021, respectively.

We made no contributions to our qualified pension plan during the first nine months of 2022.

NOTE 12 – Commitments and Contingent Liabilities

The company, through its insurance subsidiaries, is involved in claims litigation arising in the ordinary course of conducting its business, both as a liability insurer defending or providing indemnity for third-party claims brought against insureds and as an insurer defending coverage claims brought against it. The company accounts for such activity through the establishment of unpaid loss and loss expense reserves. Subject to the uncertainties discussed in Note 4, Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expenses, and in the discussion in the balance of this Note, we believe that the ultimate liability, if any, with respect to such ordinary-course claims litigation, after consideration of provisions made for potential losses, costs of defense, and reinsurance recoveries, is immaterial to our consolidated financial position, results of operations and cash flows.

Beginning in April 2020, like many companies in the property casualty insurance industry, the company’s property casualty subsidiaries, were named as defendants in lawsuits seeking insurance coverage under commercial property insurance policies issued by the company for alleged losses resulting from the shutdown or suspension of their businesses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the allegations vary, the plaintiffs generally seek a declaration of insurance coverage, damages for breach of contract in unspecified amounts for claim denials, interest and attorney fees. Some of the lawsuits also allege that the insurance claims were denied in bad faith or otherwise in violation of state laws and seek extra-contractual or punitive damages.

The company denies the allegations in these lawsuits and intends to continue to vigorously defend the lawsuits. The company maintains that it has no coverage obligations with respect to these lawsuits for business income allegedly lost by the plaintiffs due to the COVID-19 pandemic based on the terms of the applicable insurance policies. Although the policy terms vary, in general, the claims at issue in these lawsuits were denied because the policyholder identified no direct physical loss or damage to property at the insured premises, and the governmental orders that led to the complete or partial shutdown of the business were not due to the existence of any direct physical loss or damage to property in the immediate vicinity of the insured premises and did not prohibit access to the insured premises, as required by the terms of the insurance policies. Depending on the individual policy, additional policy terms and conditions may also prohibit coverage, such as exclusions for pollutants, ordinance or law, loss of use, and acts or decisions. The company’s standard commercial property insurance policies generally did not contain a specific virus exclusion.

In addition to the inherent difficulty in predicting litigation outcomes, the COVID-19 pandemic business income coverage lawsuits present a number of uncertainties and contingencies that are not yet known, including how many policyholders will ultimately file claims, the number of lawsuits that will be filed, the extent to which any class may be certified, and the size and scope of any such classes. The legal theories advanced by plaintiffs vary by case as do the state laws that govern the policy interpretation. These lawsuits are at various stages of litigation: a few filed in 2022, including several that continue to be amended; several that have been dismissed voluntarily and may be refiled; and others that have been dismissed by trial courts and appealed. While appellate decisions issued to date generally have been favorable for the insurance industry and the company, many remain to be decided. In some jurisdictions, many cases have been stayed pending appellate decisions in their state or federal circuit. Accordingly, little discovery has occurred on pending cases. In addition, business income calculations depend upon a wide range of factors that are particular to the circumstances of each individual policyholder and, here, virtually none of the plaintiffs have submitted proofs of loss or otherwise quantified or factually supported any allegedly covered loss. Moreover, the company’s experience shows that demands for damages often bear little relation to a reasonable estimate of potential loss. Accordingly, management cannot now reasonably estimate the possible loss or range of loss, if any. Nonetheless, given the number of claims and potential claims, the indeterminate amounts sought, and the inherent unpredictability of litigation, it is possible that adverse outcomes, if any, in the aggregate could have a material adverse effect on the company’s consolidated financial position, results of operations and cash flows.

The company and its subsidiaries also are occasionally involved in other legal and regulatory proceedings, some of which assert claims for substantial amounts. These actions include, among others, putative class actions seeking certification of state or national classes. Such proceedings have alleged, for example, improper depreciation of labor costs in repair estimates. The company’s insurance subsidiaries also are occasionally parties to individual actions in

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

Page 26

which extra-contractual damages, punitive damages or penalties are sought, such as claims alleging bad faith handling of insurance claims or writing unauthorized coverage or claims alleging discrimination by former or current associates.

On a quarterly basis, we review these outstanding matters. Under current accounting guidance, we establish accruals when it is probable that a loss has been incurred and we can reasonably estimate its potential exposure. The company accounts for such probable and estimable losses, if any, through the establishment of legal expense reserves. Based on our quarterly review, we believe that our accruals for probable and estimable losses are reasonable and that the amounts accrued do not have a material effect on our consolidated financial position, results of operations and cash flows. However, if any one or more of these matters results in a judgment against us or settlement for an amount that is significantly greater than the amount accrued, the resulting liability could have a material effect on the company’s consolidated financial position, results of operations and cash flows. Based on our most recent review, our estimate for any other matters for which the risk of loss is not probable, but more than remote, is immaterial.

NOTE 13 – Segment Information

We operate primarily in two industries, property casualty insurance and life insurance. Our chief operating decision maker regularly reviews our reporting segments to make decisions about allocating resources and assessing performance. Our reporting segments are:

•Commercial lines insurance

•Personal lines insurance

•Excess and surplus lines insurance

•Life insurance

•Investments

We report as Other the noninvestment operations of the parent company and its noninsurer subsidiary, CFC Investment Company. We also report as Other the underwriting results of Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global. See our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 18, Segment Information, Page 172, for a description of revenue, income or loss before income taxes and identifiable assets for each of the five segments.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

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Segment information is summarized in the following table:


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Revenues:
Commercial lines insurance
Commercial casualty	$	360	$	323	$	1,046	$	938
Commercial property	292		264		846		776
Commercial auto	213		200		627		591
Workers' compensation	73		66		209		201
Other commercial	90		77		256		221
Commercial lines insurance premiums	1,028		930		2,984		2,727
Fee revenues	1		1		3		3
Total commercial lines insurance	1,029		931		2,987		2,730

Personal lines insurance
Personal auto	158		153		465		457
Homeowner	213		184		609		536
Other personal	60		51		172		153
Personal lines insurance premiums	431		388		1,246		1,146
Fee revenues	1		1		3		3
Total personal lines insurance	432		389		1,249		1,149

Excess and surplus lines insurance	125		105		361		289
Fee revenues	1		1		2		2
Total excess and surplus lines insurance	126		106		363		291

Life insurance premiums	73		73		221		221
Fee revenues	2		1		4		3
Total life insurance	75		74		225		224

Investments
Investment income, net of expenses	193		179		573		528
Investment gains and losses, net	(674)		(70)		(2,494)		954
Total investment revenue	(481)		109		(1,921)		1,482

Other
Premiums	225		173		533		423

Other	2		3		7		8
Total other revenues	227		176		540		431
Total revenues	$	1,408	$	1,785	$	3,443	$	6,307

Income (loss) before income taxes:
Insurance underwriting results
Commercial lines insurance	$	11	$	182	$	25	$	457
Personal lines insurance	(18)		(10)		(2)		16
Excess and surplus lines insurance	9		7		44		25
Life insurance	11		(5)		22		(9)
Investments	(508)		83		(2,003)		1,403
Other	(84)		(73)		(66)		(68)
Total income (loss) before income taxes	$	(579)	$	184	$	(1,980)	$	1,824


Identifiable assets:	September 30, 2022		December 31, 2021
Property casualty insurance	$	5,072	$	4,421
Life insurance	1,525		1,590
Investments	20,726		24,481
Other	876		895
Total	$	28,199	$	31,387

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

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Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and

Results of Operations

The following discussion highlights significant factors influencing the condensed consolidated results of operations and financial position of Cincinnati Financial Corporation. It should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and related notes included in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K. Unless otherwise noted, the industry data is prepared by A.M. Best Co., a leading insurance industry statistical, analytical and financial strength rating organization. Information from A.M. Best is presented on a statutory basis for insurance company regulation in the United States of America. When we provide our results on a comparable statutory basis, we label it as such; all other company data is presented in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).

We present per share data on a diluted basis unless otherwise noted, adjusting those amounts for all stock splits and dividends. Dollar amounts are rounded to millions; calculations of percent changes are based on dollar amounts rounded to the nearest million. Certain percentage changes are identified as not meaningful (nm).

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT

This is our “Safe Harbor” statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 32.

Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:

•Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that could affect results for reasons such as:

◦Securities market disruption or volatility and related effects such as decreased economic activity and continued supply chain disruptions that affect our investment portfolio and book value

◦An unusually high level of claims in our insurance or reinsurance operations that increase litigation-related expenses

◦An unusually high level of insurance losses, including risk of legislation or court decisions extending business interruption insurance in commercial property coverage forms to cover claims for pure economic loss related to the COVID-19 pandemic

◦Decreased premium revenue and cash flow from disruption to our distribution channel of independent agents, consumer self-isolation, travel limitations, business restrictions and decreased economic activity

◦Inability of our workforce, agencies or vendors to perform necessary business functions

•Ongoing developments concerning business interruption insurance claims and litigation related to the COVID-19 pandemic that affect our estimates of losses and loss adjustment expenses or our ability to reasonably estimate such losses, such as:

◦The continuing duration of the pandemic and governmental actions to limit the spread of the virus that may produce additional economic losses

◦The number of policyholders that will ultimately submit claims or file lawsuits

◦The lack of submitted proofs of loss for allegedly covered claims

◦Judicial rulings in similar litigation involving other companies in the insurance industry

◦Differences in state laws and developing case law

◦Litigation trends, including varying legal theories advanced by policyholders

◦Whether and to what degree any class of policyholders may be certified

◦The inherent unpredictability of litigation

•Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns (whether as a result of global climate change or otherwise), environmental events, war or political unrest, terrorism incidents, cyberattacks, civil unrest or other causes

•Increased frequency and/or severity of claims or development of claims that are unforeseen at the time of policy issuance, due to inflationary trends or other causes

•Inadequate estimates or assumptions, or reliance on third-party data used for critical accounting estimates

•Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting our equity portfolio and book value

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

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•Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit our ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets

•Domestic and global events, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, resulting in capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:

◦Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)

◦Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities

◦Significant rise in losses from surety or director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities

•Our inability to manage Cincinnati Global or other subsidiaries to produce related business opportunities and growth prospects for our ongoing operations

•Recession, prolonged elevated inflation or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies

•Ineffective information technology systems or discontinuing to develop and implement improvements in technology may impact our success and profitability

•Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyberattacks, that could negatively affect our or our agents' ability to conduct business; disrupt our relationships with agents, policyholders and others; cause reputational damage, mitigation expenses and data loss and expose us to liability under federal and state laws

•Difficulties with our operations and technology that may negatively impact our ability to conduct business, including cloud-based data information storage, data security, cyberattacks, remote working capabilities, and/or outsourcing relationships and third-party operations and data security

•Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products

•Delays, inadequate data developed internally or from third parties, or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods, including telematics and other usage-based insurance methods, or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness

•Intense competition, and the impact of innovation, technological change and changing customer preferences on the insurance industry and the markets in which we operate, could harm our ability to maintain or increase our ability to maintain or increase our business volumes and profitability

•Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies could alter our competitive advantages

•Inability to obtain adequate ceded reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance coverage purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers

•Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability

•Inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends consistent with current or past levels

•Events or conditions that could weaken or harm our relationships with our independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on our opportunities for growth, such as:

◦Downgrades of our financial strength ratings

◦Concerns that doing business with us is too difficult

◦Perceptions that our level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace

◦Inability or unwillingness to nimbly develop and introduce coverage product updates and innovations that our competitors offer and consumers expect to find in the marketplace

•Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:

◦Impose new obligations on us that increase our expenses or change the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

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◦Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations

◦Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business

◦Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance‑related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes

◦Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law

◦Increase our other expenses

◦Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates

◦Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace

◦Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents

•Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings, including effects of social inflation on the size of litigation awards

•Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce our future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

•Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others

•Our inability, or the inability of our independent agents, to attract and retain personnel in a competitve labor market, impacting the customer experience and altering our competitive advantages

•Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location or work effectively in a remote environment

Further, our insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, global, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. We also are subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for our common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.

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CORPORATE FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Net Income and Comprehensive Income Data


(Dollars in millions, except per share data)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Earned premiums	$	1,882	$	1,669	13	$	5,345	$	4,806	11
Investment income, net of expenses (pretax)	193		179		8	573		528		9
Investment gains and losses, net (pretax)	(674)		(70)		nm	(2,494)		954		nm
Total revenues	1,408		1,785		(21)	3,443		6,307		(45)
Net income (loss)	(418)		153		nm	(1,499)		1,476		nm
Comprehensive income (loss)	(823)		85		nm	(2,975)		1,370		nm
Net income (loss) per share—diluted	(2.64)		0.94		nm	(9.41)		9.07		nm
Cash dividends declared per share	0.69		0.63		10	2.07		1.89		10
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding	158.0		162.9		(3)	159.3		162.8		(2)

Total revenues decreased $377 million for the third quarter of 2022, compared with the third quarter of 2021, as a reduction in net investment gains offset increases in earned premiums and investment income. For the first nine months of 2022, compared with the same period of 2021, total revenues decreased $2.864 billion, as higher earned premiums and investment income were offset by a reduction in net investment gains. Premium and investment revenue trends are discussed further in the respective sections of Financial Results.

Investment gains and losses are recognized on the sales of investments, on certain changes in fair values of securities even though we continue to hold the securities or as otherwise required by GAAP. We have substantial discretion in the timing of investment sales, and that timing generally is independent of the insurance underwriting process. The change in fair value of securities is also generally independent of the insurance underwriting process.

The net loss for the third quarter of 2022, compared with third-quarter 2021 net income, was a change of $571 million, including a decrease of $476 million in after-tax net investment gains and losses and a decrease of $114 million in after-tax property casualty underwriting income that offset an increase of $12 million in after-tax investment income. Catastrophe losses for the third quarter of 2022, mostly weather related, were $19 million higher after taxes and unfavorably affected both net income and property casualty underwriting income. Life insurance segment results on a pretax basis increased by $16 million compared with the third quarter of 2021. Third-quarter 2022 net income included a $34 million benefit from the release of an uncertain tax position related to the IRS examination of the tax year ended December 31, 2018, and is part of after-tax property casualty underwriting income.

For the first nine months of 2022, net income decreased $2.975 billion, compared with the first nine months of 2021, including decreases of $2.723 billion in after-tax investment gains and losses and $305 million in after-tax property casualty underwriting income that offset an increase of $36 million in after-tax investment income. The property casualty underwriting income decrease included an unfavorable $40 million after-tax effect from higher catastrophe losses. Life insurance segment results increased by $31 million on a pretax basis. The nine-month 2022 net income and after-tax property casualty underwriting income included the $34 million benefit from the release of an uncertain tax position noted above.

The decrease in property casualty underwriting income for both 2022 periods also included higher insured loss experience before catastrophe effects, partly from elevated paid losses reflecting economic or other forms of inflation. Various pandemic effects are also increasing our uncertainty regarding ultimate losses. We believe the past two years distorted paid loss cost trends for reasons such as slowed activity for many businesses, reduced driving and closed courts that delayed progress on some litigated insurance claims. Until longer-term paid loss cost trends become more clear, we intend to remain prudent in reserving for estimated ultimate losses. As a result, incurred losses for the first nine months of 2022 for several lines of business were higher than in prior periods and are discussed in Financial Results by property casualty insurance segment.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

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During the first nine months of 2022, SARS-CoV-2, also known as COVID-19 and recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization, continued to cause various effects in parts of the world. We believe it did not have a significant effect on our premium revenues during the first nine months of 2022 and there were no material changes to our estimates for incurred losses and expenses related to the pandemic.

Performance by segment is discussed below in Financial Results. As discussed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Executive Summary, Page 47, there are several reasons why our performance during 2022 may be below our long-term targets.

The board of directors is committed to rewarding shareholders directly through cash dividends and through share repurchase authorizations. Through 2021, the company had increased the annual cash dividend rate for 61 consecutive years, a record we believe is matched by only seven other U.S. publicly traded companies. In January 2022, the board of directors increased the regular quarterly dividend to 69 cents per share, setting the stage for our 62nd consecutive year of increasing cash dividends. During the first nine months of 2022, cash dividends declared by the company increased 10% compared with the same period of 2021. Our board regularly evaluates relevant factors in decisions related to dividends and share repurchases. The 2022 dividend increase reflected our strong operating performance and signaled management's and the board's positive outlook and confidence in our outstanding capital, liquidity and financial flexibility.

Balance Sheet Data and Performance Measures


(Dollars in millions, except share data)	At September 30,			At December 31,
	2022			2021
Total investments	$	20,988		$	24,666
Total assets	28,199			31,387
Short-term debt	44			54
Long-term debt	789			789
Shareholders' equity	9,431			13,105
Book value per share	60.01			81.72
Debt-to-total-capital ratio	8.1		%	6.0		%

Total assets at September 30, 2022, decreased 10% compared with year-end 2021, and included a 15% decrease in total investments that reflected net purchases that were offset by lower fair values for many securities in our portfolio. Shareholders' equity decreased 28% and book value per share decreased 27% during the first nine months of 2022. Our debt-to-total-capital ratio (capital is the sum of debt plus shareholders' equity) increased compared with year-end 2021.

Our value creation ratio is our primary performance metric. That ratio was negative 24.0% for the first nine months of 2022, and was less than the same period in 2021 primarily due to a reduction in overall net gains from our investment portfolio. The $21.71 decrease in book value per share during the first nine months of 2022 contributed negative 26.5 percentage points to the value creation ratio, while dividends declared at $2.07 per share contributed positive 2.5 points. Value creation ratios by major components and in total, along with calculations from per-share amounts, are shown in the tables below.


	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Value creation ratio major components:
Net income before investment gains	1.1	%	1.8	%	3.7	%	6.7	%
Change in fixed-maturity securities, realized and unrealized gains	(3.9)		(0.5)		(11.5)		(1.0)
Change in equity securities, investment gains	(5.2)		(0.7)		(15.6)		6.4
Other	(0.4)		0.1		(0.6)		0.3
Value creation ratio	(8.4)	%	0.7	%	(24.0)	%	12.4	%

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

Page 33


(Dollars are per share)	Three months ended September 30,						Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			2022			2021
Value creation ratio:
End of period book value*	$	60.01		$	73.49		$	60.01		$	73.49
Less beginning of period book value	66.30			73.57			81.72			67.04
Change in book value	(6.29)			(0.08)			(21.71)			6.45
Dividend declared to shareholders	0.69			0.63			2.07			1.89
Total value creation	$	(5.60)		$	0.55		$	(19.64)		$	8.34

Value creation ratio from change in book value**	(9.4)		%	(0.1)		%	(26.5)		%	9.6		%
Value creation ratio from dividends declared to shareholders***	1.0			0.8			2.5			2.8
Value creation ratio	(8.4)		%	0.7		%	(24.0)		%	12.4		%

* Book value per share is calculated by dividing end of period total shareholders' equity by end of period shares outstanding
** Change in book value divided by the beginning of period book value
*** Dividend declared to shareholders divided by beginning of period book value

DRIVERS OF LONG-TERM VALUE CREATION

Operating through The Cincinnati Insurance Company, Cincinnati Financial Corporation is one of the 25 largest property casualty insurers in the nation, based on 2021 net written premiums for approximately 2,000 U.S. stock and mutual insurer groups. We market our insurance products through a select group of independent insurance agencies as discussed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Page 6. At September 30, 2022, we actively marketed through 1,971 agencies located in 46 states. We maintain a long-term perspective that guides us in addressing immediate challenges or opportunities while focusing on the major decisions that best position our company for success through all market cycles.

To measure our long-term progress in creating shareholder value, our value creation ratio is our primary financial performance target. As discussed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Executive Summary, Page 47, management believes this measure is a meaningful indicator of our long-term progress in creating shareholder value and has three primary performance drivers:

•Premium growth – We believe our agency relationships and initiatives can lead to a property casualty written premium growth rate over any five-year period that exceeds the industry average. For the first nine months of 2022, our consolidated property casualty net written premium year-over-year growth was 14%, comparing favorably with the industry's 11% growth rate reported by A.M. Best for the first six months of 2022. For the five-year period 2017 through 2021, our growth rate exceeded that of the industry. The industry's growth rate excludes its mortgage and financial guaranty lines of business.

•Combined ratio – We believe our underwriting philosophy and initiatives can generate a GAAP combined ratio over any five-year period that is consistently within the range of 95% to 100%. For the first nine months of 2022, our GAAP combined ratio was 99.2%, including 10.9 percentage points of current accident year catastrophe losses partially offset by 2.8 percentage points of favorable loss reserve development on prior accident years. Our statutory combined ratio was 98.1% for the first nine months of 2022, comparing favorably with the industry's 100.0% reported by A.M. Best for the first six months of 2022. The industry's ratio again excludes its mortgage and financial guaranty lines of business.

•Investment contribution – We believe our investment philosophy and initiatives can drive investment income growth and lead to a total return on our equity investment portfolio over a five-year period that exceeds the five-year return of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. For the first nine months of 2022, pretax investment income was $573 million, up 9% compared with the same period in 2021. We believe our investment portfolio mix provides an appropriate balance of income stability and growth with capital appreciation potential.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

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Financial Strength

An important part of our long-term strategy is financial strength, which is described in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Financial Strength, Page 8. One aspect of our financial strength is prudent use of reinsurance ceded to help manage financial performance variability due to catastrophe loss experience. A description of how we use reinsurance ceded is included in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Liquidity and Capital Resources, 2022 Reinsurance Ceded Programs, Page 104. Another aspect of our financial strength is our investment portfolio, which remains well-diversified as discussed in this quarterly report in Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk. Our strong parent-company liquidity and financial strength increase our flexibility to maintain a cash dividend through all periods and to continue to invest in and expand our insurance operations.

At September 30, 2022, we held $3.888 billion of our cash and cash equivalents and invested assets at the parent-company level, of which $3.648 billion, or 93.8%, was invested in common stocks, and $105 million, or 2.7%, was cash or cash equivalents. Our debt-to-total-capital ratio was 8.1% at September 30, 2022. Another important indicator of financial strength is our ratio of property casualty net written premiums to statutory surplus, which was 1.1-to-1 for the 12 months ended September 30, 2022, compared with 0.9-to-1 at year-end 2021.

Financial strength ratings assigned to us by independent rating firms also are important. In addition to rating our parent company's senior debt, four firms award insurer financial strength ratings to one or more of our insurance subsidiary companies based on their quantitative and qualitative analyses. These ratings primarily assess an insurer's ability to meet financial obligations to policyholders and do not necessarily address all of the matters that may be important to investors. Ratings are under continuous review and subject to change or withdrawal at any time by the rating agency. Each rating should be evaluated independently of any other rating; please see each rating agency's website for its most recent report on our ratings.

At October 28, 2022, our insurance subsidiaries continued to be highly rated.

Insurer Financial Strength Ratings

Rating
agency

Standard market property casualty insurance subsidiaries

Life insurance
subsidiary

Excess and surplus lines insurance subsidiary

Outlook

Rating
tier

A.M. Best Co.

ambest.com

A+

Superior

2 of 16

A+

Superior

2 of 16

A+

Superior

2 of 16

Stable

Fitch Ratings

fitchratings.com

A+

Strong

5 of 21

A+

Strong

5 of 21

Stable

Moody's Investors Service

moodys.com

Good

5 of 21

Stable

S&P Global Ratings

spratings.com

A+

Strong

5 of 21

A+

Strong

5 of 21

Stable

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third-Quarter 2022 10-Q

Page 35

CONSOLIDATED PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE HIGHLIGHTS

Consolidated property casualty insurance results include premiums and expenses for our standard market insurance segments (commercial lines and personal lines), our excess and surplus lines segment, Cincinnati Re® and our London-based global specialty underwriter Cincinnati Global Underwriting Ltd.SM (Cincinnati Global).


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,							Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			% Change	2022			2021			% Change
Earned premiums	$	1,809		$	1,596		13	$	5,124		$	4,585		12
Fee revenues	3			3			0	8			8			0
Total revenues	1,812			1,599			13	5,132			4,593			12
Loss and loss expenses from:
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	1,116			872			28	3,127			2,583			21
Current accident year catastrophe losses	275			218			26	560			489			15
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(20)			(112)			82	(74)			(282)			74
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(23)			10			nm	(69)			(49)			(41)
Loss and loss expenses	1,348			988			36	3,544			2,741			29
Underwriting expenses	530			490			8	1,541			1,377			12
Underwriting profit (loss)	$	(66)		$	121		nm	$	47		$	475		(90)

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	61.7		%	54.7		%	7.0	61.0		%	56.3		%	4.7
Current accident year catastrophe losses	15.2			13.6			1.6	10.9			10.7			0.2
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(1.1)			(7.0)			5.9	(1.4)			(6.1)			4.7
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(1.3)			0.6			(1.9)	(1.4)			(1.1)			(0.3)
Loss and loss expenses	74.5			61.9			12.6	69.1			59.8			9.3
Underwriting expenses	29.4			30.7			(1.3)	30.1			30.0			0.1
Combined ratio	103.9		%	92.6		%	11.3	99.2		%	89.8		%	9.4

Combined ratio	103.9		%	92.6		%	11.3	99.2		%	89.8		%	9.4
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	12.8			7.2			5.6	8.1			3.5			4.6
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	91.1		%	85.4		%	5.7	91.1		%	86.3		%	4.8

Our consolidated property casualty insurance operations generated an underwriting loss of $66 million for the third quarter of 2022 and an underwriting profit of $47 million for the first nine months of the year. The third-quarter 2022 change of $187 million from an underwriting profit for the same period a year ago included an unfavorable increase of $24 million in losses from catastrophes, mostly caused by severe weather. The nine-month underwriting profit decrease of $428 million, compared with the first nine months of 2021, included an unfavorable increase of $51 million in losses from catastrophes. Both 2022 periods also experienced higher current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses and lower amounts of favorable reserve development on prior accident years.

Elevated inflation was a driver of higher losses and loss expenses as costs have increased significantly to repair damaged autos or other property that we insure. In addition to inflation affecting historic loss patterns, we believe reduced driving during the pandemic resulted in a relatively low level of loss activity in 2021, distorting paid loss cost trends for autos. We also experienced higher losses for liability coverages for some of our lines of business, particularly for commercial umbrella insurance. Due to increased uncertainty regarding ultimate losses, we intend to remain prudent in reserving for estimated ultimate losses until longer-term loss cost trends become more clear. The higher loss experience is discussed in Financial Results by property casualty insurance segment. We believe future property casualty underwriting results will continue to benefit from price increases and our ongoing initiatives to improve pricing precision and loss experience related to claims and loss control practices.

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For all property casualty lines of business in aggregate, net loss and loss expense reserves at September 30, 2022, were $814 million, or 12%, higher than at year-end 2021, including an increase of $620 million for the incurred but not reported (IBNR) portion.

We measure and analyze property casualty underwriting results primarily by the combined ratio and its component ratios. The GAAP-basis combined ratio is the percentage of incurred losses plus all expenses per each earned premium dollar – the lower the ratio, the better the performance. An underwriting profit results when the combined ratio is below 100%. A combined ratio above 100% indicates that an insurance company's losses and expenses exceeded premiums.

Our consolidated property casualty combined ratio for the third quarter of 2022 rose by 11.3 percentage points, compared with the same period of 2021, including a decrease of 0.3 points from higher catastrophe losses and loss expenses that were outpaced by growth in earned premiums. For the first nine months of 2022, compared with the 2021 nine-month period, our combined ratio rose by 9.4 percentage points, including a decrease of 0.1 point from higher catastrophe losses and loss expenses that were outpaced by growth in earned premiums. Combined ratio components that increased are discussed below and in further detail in Financial Results by property casualty insurance segment.

The combined ratio can be affected significantly by natural catastrophe losses and other large losses as discussed in detail below. The combined ratio can also be affected by updated estimates of loss and loss expense reserves established for claims that occurred in prior periods, referred to as prior accident years. Net favorable development on prior accident year reserves, including reserves for catastrophe losses, benefited the combined ratio by 2.8 percentage points in the first nine months of 2022, compared with 7.7 percentage points in the same period of 2021. Net favorable development is discussed in further detail in Financial Results by property casualty insurance segment.

The ratio for current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses increased in the first nine months of 2022. That 61.0% ratio was 4.7 percentage points higher, compared with the 56.3% accident year 2021 ratio measured as of September 30, 2021, including an increase of 2.3 points in the ratio for large losses of $1 million or more per claim, discussed below.

The underwriting expense ratio decreased for the third quarter and increased slightly for the first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods a year ago. The third-quarter 2022 decrease was primarily due to a decrease in profit-sharing commissions for agencies, while the nine-month increase was primarily due to an increase in commissions for agencies. The ratios also included ongoing expense management efforts and higher earned premiums.

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Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Agency renewal written premiums	$	1,390	$	1,244	12	$	4,269	$	3,853	11
Agency new business written premiums	264		230		15	794		685		16

Other written premiums	96		64		50	550		407		35
Net written premiums	1,750		1,538		14	5,613		4,945		14
Unearned premium change	59		58		2	(489)		(360)		(36)
Earned premiums	$	1,809	$	1,596	13	$	5,124	$	4,585	12

The trends in net written premiums and earned premiums summarized in the table above include the effects of price increases. Price change trends that heavily influence renewal written premium increases or decreases, along with other premium growth drivers for 2022, are discussed in more detail by segment below in Financial Results.

Consolidated property casualty net written premiums for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, grew $212 million and $668 million compared with the same periods of 2021. Our premium growth initiatives from prior years have provided an ongoing favorable effect on growth during the current year, particularly as newer agency relationships mature over time.

Consolidated property casualty agency new business written premiums increased by $34 million and $109 million for the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021. New agency appointments during 2022 and 2021 produced an $11 million increase in standard lines new business for the first nine months of 2022 compared with the same period of 2021. As we appoint new agencies that choose to move accounts to us, we report these accounts as new business. While this business is new to us, in many cases it is not new to the agent. We believe these seasoned accounts tend to be priced more accurately than business that may be less familiar to our agent upon obtaining it from a competing agent.

Net written premiums for Cincinnati Re, included in other written premiums, increased by $29 million and $129 million for the three months and nine months ended September 30, 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021, to $86 million and $518 million, respectively. Cincinnati Re assumes risks through reinsurance treaties and in some cases cedes part of the risk and related premiums to one or more unaffiliated reinsurance companies through transactions known as retrocessions.

Cincinnati Global is also included in other written premiums. Net written premiums increased, by $10 million and $42 million, for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021, to $57 million and $177 million, respectively.

Other written premiums also include premiums ceded to reinsurers as part of our reinsurance ceded program. An increase in ceded premiums reduced net written premiums by $11 million and $26 million for the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021.

Catastrophe losses and loss expenses typically have a material effect on property casualty results and can vary significantly from period to period. Losses from catastrophes contributed 13.9 and 9.5 percentage points to the combined ratio in the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with 14.2 and 9.6 percentage points in the same period of 2021.

Effective June 1, 2022, we restructured our reinsurance program for Cincinnati Re only, providing retrocession coverages with various triggers and unique features. That program included property catastrophe excess of loss coverage with a total available aggregate limit of $30 million in excess of $100 million per loss. Losses estimated for Hurricane Ian as of September 30, 2022, did not reach a level applicable for reinsurance recovery. Ultimate loss experience could be lower or higher than that estimate and higher amounts could exceed our loss retention amount of $100 million, triggering the retrocession coverage in the future. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 52, and Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 32. Losses estimated for

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Hurricane Ian as of September 30, 2022, included a high degree of reliance on third-party catastrophe models and industry estimates because the event occurred near the end of the third-quarter 2022 reporting period. Our own proprietary adjustments and ultimate loss estimates will develop as more information is reported by affected ceding companies.

Effective in May 2022, to provide more capacity to retain risks, we added a quota share reinsurance arrangement for our personal lines risks in California that we insure through excess and surplus lines policies. Approximately 26% of the risk is reinsured through ceded premiums.

The following table shows consolidated property casualty insurance catastrophe losses and loss expenses incurred, net of reinsurance, as well as the effect of loss development on prior period catastrophe events. We individually list declared catastrophe events for which our incurred losses reached or exceeded $10 million.

Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Catastrophe Losses and Loss Expenses Incurred


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended September 30,																				Nine months ended September 30,
			Comm.				Pers.				E&S												Comm.				Pers.				E&S
Dates	Region		lines				lines				lines				Other				Total				lines				lines				lines				Other				Total
2022



Apr. 10-14	Midwest, South, West		$	(4)			$	(2)			$	—			$	—			$	(6)			$	13			$	9			$	—			$	—			$	22
Apr. 15-19	Northeast, South		(2)				(1)				—				—				(3)				14				2				—				—				16
May 1-3	Midwest, South, West		—				—				—				—				—				8				9				—				—				17
May 9-10	Midwest		1				—				—				—				1				20				4				—				—				24
May 11-12	Midwest, South		1				—				—				—				1				14				5				—				—				19
May 19-22	Midwest, Northeast, South		1				4				—				—				5				7				15				—				—				22
Jun. 4-8	Midwest, South, West		1				(1)				—				—				—				14				3				—				—				17
Jun. 11-17	Midwest, Northeast, South		1				(2)				—				—				(1)				18				17				—				—				35
Sep. 27 - Oct. 1	South (Ian)		26				51				—				143				220				26				51				—				143				220




All other 2022 catastrophes	25				27				—				6				58				67				79				3				19				168
Development on 2021 and prior catastrophes	(4)				(7)				—				(12)				(23)				(17)				(40)				—				(12)				(69)
Calendar year incurred total	$	46			$	69			$	—			$	137			$	252			$	184			$	154			$	3			$	150			$	491

2021
Feb. 12-15	South, West		$	(1)			$	—			$	—			$	(10)			$	(11)			$	9			$	5			$	—			$	37			$	51
Feb. 16-20	Midwest, Northeast, South		(3)				(3)				—				(2)				(8)				21				30				1				9				61
Mar. 24-26	Midwest, Northeast, South		(1)				(1)				—				—				(2)				12				18				—				—				30
Mar. 27-29	Midwest, Northeast, South		1				(1)				—				—				—				4				8				—				—				12
May 3-4	South		(2)				—				—				—				(2)				9				4				—				—				13
Jun. 17-20	Midwest		6				2				—				—				8				12				16				—				—				28
Jun. 24 - Jul. 1	Midwest, Northeast, South, West		3				6				—				—				9				5				12				—				—				17
Aug. 10-13	Midwest, Northeast, South		6				9				—				—				15				6				9				—				—				15
Aug. 29 - Sep. 2	Northeast, South (Ida)		18				42				—				109				169				18				42				—				109				169
All other 2021 catastrophes	10				24				1				5				40				34				53				1				5				93
Development on 2020 and prior catastrophes	(5)				—				—				15				10				(32)				(4)				—				(13)				(49)
Calendar year incurred total	$	32			$	78			$	1			$	117			$	228			$	98			$	193			$	2			$	147			$	440

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The following table includes data for losses incurred of $1 million or more per claim, net of reinsurance.

Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Losses Incurred by Size


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended September 30,							Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			% Change	2022			2021			% Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	38		$	14		171	$	99		$	57		74
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	95			72			32	254			154			65
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	13			30			(57)	76			67			13
Total large losses incurred	146			116			26	429			278			54
Losses incurred but not reported	131			(13)			nm	241			52			363
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	649			514			26	1,889			1,542			23
Catastrophe losses	246			215			14	478			421			14
Total losses incurred	$	1,172		$	832		41	$	3,037		$	2,293		32

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	2.1		%	0.9		%	1.2	1.9		%	1.2		%	0.7
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	5.3			4.5			0.8	5.0			3.4			1.6
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	0.7			1.9			(1.2)	1.5			1.5			0.0
Total large loss ratio	8.1			7.3			0.8	8.4			6.1			2.3
Losses incurred but not reported	7.2			(0.8)			8.0	4.7			1.1			3.6
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	35.9			32.2			3.7	36.9			33.6			3.3
Catastrophe losses	13.6			13.4			0.2	9.3			9.2			0.1
Total loss ratio	64.8		%	52.1		%	12.7	59.3		%	50.0		%	9.3

We believe the inherent variability of aggregate loss experience for our portfolio of larger policies is greater than that of our portfolio of smaller policies, and we continue to monitor the variability in addition to general inflationary trends in loss costs. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. The third-quarter 2022 property casualty total large losses incurred of $146 million, net of reinsurance, were higher than the $116 million quarterly average during full-year 2021 and the $116 million experienced for the third quarter of 2021. The ratio for these large losses was 0.8 percentage points higher compared with last year's third quarter. The third-quarter 2022 amount of total large losses incurred helped contribute to the increase in the nine-month 2022 total large loss ratio, compared with 2021, in addition to a first-half 2022 ratio that was 3.1 points higher than the first half of 2021. We believe results for the three- and nine-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $1 million. Losses by size are discussed in further detail in results of operations by property casualty insurance segment.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

Consolidated results reflect the operating results of each of our five segments along with the parent company, Cincinnati Re, Cincinnati Global and other activities reported as "Other." The five segments are:

•Commercial lines insurance

•Personal lines insurance

•Excess and surplus lines insurance

•Life insurance

•Investments

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COMMERCIAL LINES INSURANCE RESULTS


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,							Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			% Change	2022			2021			% Change
Earned premiums	$	1,028		$	930		11	$	2,984		$	2,727		9
Fee revenues	1			1			0	3			3			0
Total revenues	1,029			931			11	2,987			2,730			9
Loss and loss expenses from:
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	664			521			27	1,896			1,580			20
Current accident year catastrophe losses	50			37			35	201			130			55
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	—			(102)			100	(34)			(244)			86
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(4)			(5)			20	(17)			(32)			47
Loss and loss expenses	710			451			57	2,046			1,434			43
Underwriting expenses	308			298			3	916			839			9
Underwriting profit	$	11		$	182		(94)	$	25		$	457		(95)

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	64.5		%	56.1		%	8.4	63.5		%	57.9		%	5.6
Current accident year catastrophe losses	4.9			3.9			1.0	6.8			4.8			2.0
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	—			(10.9)			10.9	(1.1)			(8.9)			7.8
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(0.4)			(0.6)			0.2	(0.6)			(1.2)			0.6
Loss and loss expenses	69.0			48.5			20.5	68.6			52.6			16.0
Underwriting expenses	30.0			32.1			(2.1)	30.7			30.8			(0.1)
Combined ratio	99.0		%	80.6		%	18.4	99.3		%	83.4		%	15.9

Combined ratio	99.0		%	80.6		%	18.4	99.3		%	83.4		%	15.9
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	4.5			(7.6)			12.1	5.1			(5.3)			10.4
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	94.5		%	88.2		%	6.3	94.2		%	88.7		%	5.5

Overview

Performance highlights for the commercial lines segment include:

•Premiums – Earned premiums and net written premiums for the commercial lines segment grew during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, compared with the same periods a year ago, primarily due to renewal written premium growth that continued to include higher average pricing and a higher level of insured exposures. The table below analyzes the primary components of premiums. We continue to use predictive analytics tools to improve pricing precision and segmentation while leveraging our local relationships with agents through the efforts of our teams that work closely with them. We seek to maintain appropriate pricing discipline for both new and renewal business as our agents and underwriters assess account quality to make careful decisions on a policy-by-policy basis whether to write or renew a policy.

Agency renewal written premiums increased by 11% for the third quarter and 9% for the first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021, including price increases. During the third quarter of 2022, our overall standard commercial lines policies averaged estimated renewal price increases at percentages in the mid-single-digit range, somewhat higher than in the second quarter. We continue to segment commercial lines policies, emphasizing identification and retention of those we believe have relatively stronger pricing. Conversely, we have been seeking stricter renewal terms and conditions on policies we believe have relatively weaker pricing, thus retaining fewer of those policies. We measure average changes in commercial lines renewal pricing as the percentage rate of change in renewal premium for the new policy period compared with the premium for the expiring policy period, assuming no change in the level of insured exposures or policy coverage between those periods for the respective policies.

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Our average overall commercial lines renewal pricing change includes the impact of flat pricing for certain coverages within package policies written for a three-year term that were in force but did not expire during the period being measured. Therefore, our reported change in average commercial lines renewal pricing reflects a blend of three-year policies that did not expire and other policies that did expire during the measurement period. For commercial lines policies that did expire and were then renewed during the third quarter of 2022, we estimate that our average percentage price increases were in the mid-single-digit range for commercial property, commercial auto and commercial casualty. The estimated average percentage price change for workers' compensation was a decrease near the low end of the mid-single-digit range.

Our nine-month 2022 increase of 9% for the commercial lines segment's agency renewal written premiums also included a higher level of insured exposures. Part of the insured exposure increase reflects our response to inflation effects that increase the cost of building materials to repair damaged commercial structures. We use building valuation software to automate much of that underwriting process and may also manually adjust premiums to reflect property costs. For our commercial property line of business, premium adjustments for such costs during the first nine months of 2022 are about double the level they were for the same period a year ago.

Renewal premiums for certain policies, primarily our commercial casualty and workers' compensation lines of business, include the results of policy audits that adjust initial premium amounts based on differences between estimated and actual sales or payroll related to a specific policy. Audits completed during the first nine months of 2022 contributed $72 million to net written premiums, compared with $31 million for the same period of 2021.

New business written premiums for commercial lines increased $4 million and $34 million during the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021. Trend analysis for year-over-year comparisons of individual quarters is more difficult to assess for commercial lines new business written premiums, due to inherent variability. That variability is often driven by larger policies with annual premiums greater than $100,000.

Other written premiums include premiums ceded to reinsurers as part of our reinsurance ceded program. For our commercial lines insurance segment, an increase in ceded premiums reduced net written premiums by $5 million and $14 million for the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021.

Commercial Lines Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Agency renewal written premiums	$	860	$	775	11	$	2,764	$	2,525	9
Agency new business written premiums	149		145		3	470		436		8
Other written premiums	(25)		(25)		0	(82)		(70)		(17)
Net written premiums	984		895		10	3,152		2,891		9
Unearned premium change	44		35		26	(168)		(164)		(2)
Earned premiums	$	1,028	$	930	11	$	2,984	$	2,727	9

•Combined ratio – The third-quarter 2022 commercial lines combined ratio increased by 18.4 percentage points, compared with the third quarter of 2021, including an increase of 1.2 points in losses from catastrophes. The third-quarter combined ratio also increased 8.4 points from current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses, including 4.4 points from commercial umbrella coverages discussed below. For the first nine months of 2022, the combined ratio increased by 15.9 percentage points, compared with the same period a year ago, including an increase of 2.6 points in losses from catastrophes and an increase of 5.6 points from current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses, including 3.8 points from commercial umbrella. Underwriting results also included a lower level of favorable reserve development on prior accident years. Those current accident year ratios were measured as of September 30 of the respective years and included a third-quarter 2022 increase of 3.1 percentage points and a nine-month increase of 2.6 points in the ratio for large losses of $1 million or more per claim, discussed below.

When estimating the ultimate cost of total loss and loss expenses, we consider many factors, including trends for inflation, historical paid and reported losses, large loss activity and other data or information for the industry or our company. Elevated inflation was a driver of higher losses and loss expenses as costs have increased significantly to repair damaged business property or autos that we insure. In addition to inflation causing deviations from historical loss patterns, we believe reduced driving during the pandemic resulted in a relatively

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low level of loss activity in 2021, distorting paid loss cost trends for autos. Due to increased uncertainty regarding ultimate losses, we intend to remain prudent in reserving for estimated ultimate losses until longer-term loss cost trends become more clear.

Commercial umbrella coverages, part of our commercial casualty line of business that help protect businesses against liability from occurrences such as accidents or injuries, contributed significantly to the increase in nine-month 2022 ratios for losses and expenses. For the first nine months of 2022, incurred losses and loss expenses for commercial umbrella coverages of $316 million increased $195 million or 161%, compared with the same period of 2021, in part due to paid losses of $177 million increasing $97 million or 121% while earned premiums rose 10%. Severe losses from commercial auto accidents were the primary source of our commercial umbrella claims during the first nine months of 2022 and also in recent years.

Commercial umbrella paid loss experience is inherently variable. For example, paid losses rose 80% in 2019 while decreasing by 35% in both 2018 and 2020. Commercial umbrella net earned premiums were $370 million for the first nine months of 2022 and represented approximately 35% of our commercial casualty premiums for the first half of both 2022 and 2021. The profile of coverage limits for policies in force at the beginning of second-quarter 2022 included 43% with $1 million of coverage per policy, 91% with $5 million or less and 98% with $10 million or less of coverage. Our commercial umbrella insurance coverages have a strong record of profitability for us, including an estimated combined ratio below 80% in each of the past five years.

Catastrophe losses and loss expenses accounted for 4.5 and 6.2 percentage points of the combined ratio for the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with 3.3 and 3.6 percentage points for the same periods a year ago. Through 2021, the 10-year annual average for that catastrophe measure for the commercial lines segment was 5.5 percentage points, and the five-year annual average was 5.8 percentage points.

The net effect of reserve development on prior accident years during the third quarter and first nine months of 2022 was favorable for commercial lines overall by $4 million and $51 million, compared with $107 million and $276 million for the same periods in 2021. For the first nine months of 2022, our workers' compensation and commercial property lines of business were the main contributors to the commercial lines net favorable reserve development on prior accident years, while our commercial casualty line of business included net unfavorable development of $25 million, including $41 million from commercial umbrella coverages. The net favorable reserve development recognized during the first nine months of 2022 for our commercial lines insurance segment was primarily for accident years 2020 and 2021 and was primarily due to lower-than-anticipated loss emergence on known claims. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 52.

The commercial lines underwriting expense ratio decreased for the third quarter of 2022 and was essentially unchanged for the first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods a year ago. The third-quarter 2022 decrease was primarily due to a decrease in profit-sharing commissions for agencies. The ratios also included ongoing expense management efforts and higher earned premiums.

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Commercial Lines Insurance Losses Incurred by Size


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended September 30,							Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			% Change	2022			2021			% Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	30		$	4		nm	$	61		$	47		30
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	72			60			20	192			115			67
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	12			29			(59)	69			69			0
Total large losses incurred	114			93			23	322			231			39
Losses incurred but not reported	97			(35)			nm	196			(30)			nm
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	345			270			28	1,026			857			20
Catastrophe losses	44			30			47	179			92			95
Total losses incurred	$	600		$	358		68	$	1,723		$	1,150		50

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	3.0		%	0.5		%	2.5	2.0		%	1.7		%	0.3
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	7.1			6.5			0.6	6.5			4.2			2.3
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	1.1			3.1			(2.0)	2.3			2.6			(0.3)
Total large loss ratio	11.2			10.1			1.1	10.8			8.5			2.3
Losses incurred but not reported	9.4			(3.7)			13.1	6.6			(1.1)			7.7
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	33.6			29.0			4.6	34.3			31.4			2.9
Catastrophe losses	4.2			3.1			1.1	6.0			3.4			2.6
Total loss ratio	58.4		%	38.5		%	19.9	57.7		%	42.2		%	15.5

We continue to monitor new losses and case reserve increases greater than $1 million for trends in factors such as initial reserve levels, loss cost inflation and claim settlement expenses. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of these large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. The third-quarter 2022 commercial lines total large losses incurred of $114 million, net of reinsurance, were higher than the quarterly average of $95 million during full-year 2021 and the $93 million of total large losses incurred for the third quarter of 2021. The increase in commercial lines large losses for the first nine months of 2022 was primarily due to our commercial casualty and commercial property lines of business. The third-quarter 2022 ratio for commercial lines total large losses was 1.1 percentage points higher than last year's third-quarter ratio. The third-quarter 2022 amount of total large losses incurred helped contribute to the increase in the nine-month 2022 total large loss ratio, compared with 2021, in addition to a first-half 2022 ratio that was 2.9 points higher than the first half of 2021. We believe results for the three- and nine-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $1 million.

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PERSONAL LINES INSURANCE RESULTS


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,							Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			% Change	2022			2021			% Change
Earned premiums	$	431		$	388		11	$	1,246		$	1,146		9
Fee revenues	1			1			0	3			3			0
Total revenues	432			389			11	1,249			1,149			9
Loss and loss expenses from:
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	256			206			24	740			633			17
Current accident year catastrophe losses	76			78			(3)	194			197			(2)
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(1)			(3)			67	(16)			(31)			48
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(7)			—			nm	(40)			(4)			nm
Loss and loss expenses	324			281			15	878			795			10
Underwriting expenses	126			118			7	373			338			10
Underwriting profit (loss)	$	(18)		$	(10)		(80)	$	(2)		$	16		nm

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	59.5		%	53.1		%	6.4	59.4		%	55.2		%	4.2
Current accident year catastrophe losses	17.7			20.1			(2.4)	15.6			17.2			(1.6)
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(0.2)			(0.7)			0.5	(1.3)			(2.7)			1.4
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(1.8)			(0.1)			(1.7)	(3.2)			(0.4)			(2.8)
Loss and loss expenses	75.2			72.4			2.8	70.5			69.3			1.2
Underwriting expenses	29.3			30.3			(1.0)	29.9			29.5			0.4
Combined ratio	104.5		%	102.7		%	1.8	100.4		%	98.8		%	1.6

Combined ratio	104.5		%	102.7		%	1.8	100.4		%	98.8		%	1.6
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	15.7			19.3			(3.6)	11.1			14.1			(3.0)
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	88.8		%	83.4		%	5.4	89.3		%	84.7		%	4.6

Overview

Performance highlights for the personal lines segment include:

•Premiums – Personal lines earned premiums and net written premiums continued to grow during the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, including increased new business and renewal written premiums that included higher average pricing. Personal lines net written premiums from high net worth policies totaled approximately $249 million and $685 million for the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with $180 million and $490 million for the same periods of 2021. The table below analyzes the primary components of premiums.

Agency renewal written premiums increased 11% for both the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, reflecting rate increases in selected states, a higher level of insured exposures and other factors such as changes in policy deductibles or mix of business. Part of the insured exposure increase reflects our response to inflation effects that increase the cost of building materials to repair damaged homes. In recent years, prior to 2022, our homeowner policies used inflation factors that adjusted premiums for such costs annually and averaged increases in the mid-single-digit percentage range. Beginning in 2022, the adjustment occurred quarterly and the inflation factors were in the high-single digit percentage range for both the second and third quarters.

We estimate that premium rates for our personal auto line of business increased at average percentages in the low-single-digit range during the first nine months of 2022. We plan to increase rates more aggressively in future quarters. We expect full-year 2023 written premiums will include an average rate increase of approximately 10% for our personal auto line of business. For our homeowner line of business, we estimate that premium rates for the first nine months of 2022 increased at average percentages in the mid-single-digit range.

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For both our personal auto and homeowner lines of business, some individual policies experienced lower or higher rate changes based on each risk's specific characteristics and enhanced pricing precision enabled by predictive models.

Personal lines new business written premiums increased $28 million or 53% for the third quarter of 2022 and $69 million, including $60 million from high net worth policies, for the first nine months, compared with the same periods of 2021. Approximately $3 million of the third-quarter 2022 increase was from excess and surplus lines homeowner policies and $19 million was from other high net worth policies. We believe underwriting and pricing discipline were maintained in recent quarters, and growth was also supported by expanded use of enhanced pricing precision tools.

Other written premiums include premiums ceded to reinsurers as part of our reinsurance ceded program. For our personal lines insurance segment, an increase in 2022 ceded premiums reduced net written premiums by $6 million for the third quarter and $10 million for the first nine months, compared with the same periods of 2021.

Personal Lines Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Agency renewal written premiums	$	437	$	393	11	$	1,208	$	1,092	11
Agency new business written premiums	81		53		53	221		152		45
Other written premiums	(16)		(11)		(45)	(43)		(32)		(34)
Net written premiums	502		435		15	1,386		1,212		14
Unearned premium change	(71)		(47)		(51)	(140)		(66)		(112)
Earned premiums	$	431	$	388	11	$	1,246	$	1,146	9

•Combined ratio – Our personal lines combined ratio for the third quarter of 2022 increased by 1.8 percentage points, compared with third-quarter 2021, including a decrease of 4.1 points in losses from catastrophes and an increase of 6.4 points from current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses. For the first nine months of 2022, the combined ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points, compared with the same period a year ago, including a decrease of 4.4 points in losses from catastrophes. The nine-month 2022 combined ratio also included an increase of 4.2 points from current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses, with our personal auto line of business representing approximately 1 point and our homeowner line of business representing approximately 2 points. Those current accident year ratios were measured as of September 30 of the respective years and included a third-quarter 2022 increase of 0.1 percentage points and a nine-month increase of 2.9 points in the ratio for large losses of $1 million or more per claim, discussed below.

When estimating the ultimate cost of total loss and loss expenses, we consider many factors, including trends in inflation, historical paid and reported losses, large loss activity and other data or information for the industry or our company. Elevated inflation was a driver of higher losses and loss expenses as costs have increased significantly to repair damaged autos or homes that we insure. In addition to inflation causing deviations from historical loss patterns, we believe reduced driving during the pandemic resulted in a relatively low level of loss activity in 2021, distorting paid loss cost trends for autos. Due to increased uncertainty regarding ultimate losses, we intend to remain prudent in reserving for estimated ultimate losses until longer-term loss cost trends become more clear. For example, for the first nine months of 2022, personal auto incurred loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses increased $39 million or 13%, compared with the same period of 2021, in part due to paid losses increasing $25 million or 17% while earned premiums rose 2%.

Catastrophe losses and loss expenses accounted for 15.9 and 12.4 percentage points of the combined ratio for the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with 20.0 and 16.8 percentage points for the same periods a year ago. The 10-year annual average catastrophe loss ratio for the personal lines segment through 2021 was 10.8 percentage points, and the five-year annual average was 12.0 percentage points.

In addition to the average rate increases discussed above, we continue to refine our pricing to better match premiums to the risk of loss on individual policies. Improved pricing precision and broad-based rate increases are expected to help position the combined ratio at a profitable level over the long term. In addition, greater geographic diversification is expected to reduce the volatility of homeowner loss ratios attributable to weather-related catastrophe losses over time.

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The net effect of reserve development on prior accident years during the third quarter and first nine months of 2022 was favorable for personal lines overall by $8 million and $56 million, compared with $3 million and $35 million of favorable development for the same periods of 2021. Our homeowner line of business was the primary contributor to the personal lines net favorable reserve development for the first nine months of 2022. The net favorable reserve development was primarily due to lower-than-anticipated loss emergence on known claims. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 52.

The personal lines underwriting expense ratio decreased for the third quarter and increased slightly for the first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods a year ago. The third-quarter decrease was primarily due to a decrease in profit-sharing commissions for agencies, while the nine-month increase was primarily due to an increase in commissions for agencies. The ratios also included ongoing expense management efforts and higher earned premiums.

Personal Lines Insurance Losses Incurred by Size


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended September 30,							Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			% Change	2022			2021			% Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	8		$	10		(20)	$	38		$	10		280
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	17			12			42	43			31			39
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	(1)			(1)			—	4			(4)			nm
Total large losses incurred	24			21			14	85			37			130
Losses incurred but not reported	9			—			nm	7			37			(81)
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	183			154			19	524			442			19
Catastrophe losses	66			69			(4)	150			182			(18)
Total losses incurred	$	282		$	244		16	$	766		$	698		10

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	1.9		%	2.6		%	(0.7)	3.1		%	0.9		%	2.2
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	3.7			2.9			0.8	3.4			2.7			0.7
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	—			(0.2)			0.2	0.3			(0.4)			0.7
Total large loss ratio	5.6			5.3			0.3	6.8			3.2			3.6
Losses incurred but not reported	2.0			(0.1)			2.1	0.6			3.2			(2.6)
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	42.5			39.7			2.8	42.1			38.6			3.5
Catastrophe losses	15.5			17.7			(2.2)	12.0			15.9			(3.9)
Total loss ratio	65.6		%	62.6		%	3.0	61.5		%	60.9		%	0.6

We continue to monitor new losses and case reserve increases greater than $1 million for trends in factors such as initial reserve levels, loss cost inflation and claim settlement expenses. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of these large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. In the third quarter of 2022, the personal lines total large loss ratio, net of reinsurance, was 0.3 percentage points higher than last year's third quarter. The increase in personal lines large losses for the first nine months of 2022 occurred primarily for our homeowner line of business. The third-quarter 2022 amount of total large losses incurred helped contribute to the increase in the nine-month 2022 total large loss ratio, compared with 2021, in addition to a first-half 2022 ratio that was 5.3 points higher than the first half of 2021. We believe results for the three- and nine-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $1 million.

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EXCESS AND SURPLUS LINES INSURANCE RESULTS


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,							Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			% Change	2022			2021			% Change
Earned premiums	$	125		$	105		19	$	361		$	289		25
Fee revenues	1			1			0	2			2			0
Total revenues	126			106			19	363			291			25

Loss and loss expenses from:
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	93			66			41	236			179			32
Current accident year catastrophe losses	—			1			(100)	3			2			50
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(7)			3			nm	(13)			6			nm
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	—			—			0	—			—			0
Loss and loss expenses	86			70			23	226			187			21
Underwriting expenses	31			29			7	93			79			18
Underwriting profit	$	9		$	7		29	$	44		$	25		76

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year before catastrophe losses	74.8		%	62.6		%	12.2	65.4		%	61.9		%	3.5
Current accident year catastrophe losses	(0.4)			0.4			(0.8)	0.8			0.7			0.1
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses	(5.9)			3.3			(9.2)	(3.6)			2.1			(5.7)
Prior accident years catastrophe losses	(0.1)			(0.1)			0.0	(0.2)			(0.1)			(0.1)
Loss and loss expenses	68.4			66.2			2.2	62.4			64.6			(2.2)
Underwriting expenses	25.5			27.9			(2.4)	26.0			27.3			(1.3)
Combined ratio	93.9		%	94.1		%	(0.2)	88.4		%	91.9		%	(3.5)

Combined ratio	93.9		%	94.1		%	(0.2)	88.4		%	91.9		%	(3.5)
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	(6.4)			3.6			(10.0)	(3.0)			2.7			(5.7)
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development	100.3		%	90.5		%	9.8	91.4		%	89.2		%	2.2

Overview

Performance highlights for the excess and surplus lines segment include:

•Premiums – Excess and surplus lines net written premiums continued to grow during the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with the same period a year ago, primarily due to an increase in agency renewal written premiums. Renewal written premiums rose 22% and 26% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021, reflecting the opportunity to renew many accounts for the first time, as well as higher renewal pricing. For the first nine months of 2022, excess and surplus lines policy renewals experienced estimated average price increases at percentages in the high-single-digit range. We measure average changes in excess and surplus lines renewal pricing as the percentage rate of change in renewal premium for the new policy period compared with the premium for the expiring policy period, assuming no change in the level of insured exposures or policy coverage between those periods for respective policies.

New business written premiums produced by agencies increased by 6% for both the third quarter and first nine months of 2022 compared with the same periods of 2021. Competition for larger policies has been particularly strong during the first nine months of 2022, as we continued to carefully underwrite each policy in this highly competitive market. Some of what we report as new business came from accounts that were not new to our agents. We believe our agents' seasoned accounts tend to be priced more accurately than business that may be less familiar to them.

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Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Agency renewal written premiums	$	93	$	76	22	$	297	$	236	26
Agency new business written premiums	34		32		6	103		97		6
Other written premiums	(6)		(4)		(50)	(20)		(15)		(33)
Net written premiums	121		104		16	380		318		19
Unearned premium change	4		1		300	(19)		(29)		34
Earned premiums	$	125	$	105	19	$	361	$	289	25

•Combined ratio – The excess and surplus lines combined ratio improved by 0.2 percentage points for the third quarter of 2022 and by 3.5 points for the first nine months, compared with the same periods of 2021, primarily due to favorable reserve development on prior accident years before catastrophe losses.

The ratio for current accident year loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses for excess and surplus lines rose for both the third quarter and first nine months of 2022. That 65.4% nine-month ratio was 3.5 percentage points higher, compared with the 61.9% accident year 2021 ratio measured as of September 30, 2021, including an increase of 2.4 percentage points in the ratio for large losses of $1 million or more per claim, discussed below.

Excess and surplus lines net reserve development on prior accident years, as a ratio to earned premiums, was a favorable 6.0% for the third quarter and 3.8% for the first nine months of 2022, compared with unfavorable net reserve development of 3.2% for the third quarter of 2021 and 2.0% for the first nine months of 2021. The $13 million of net favorable reserve development recognized during the first nine months of 2022 was primarily for accident year 2020. The favorable reserve development was due primarily to lower-than-anticipated loss emergence on known claims. Reserve estimates are inherently uncertain as described in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves, Page 52.

The excess and surplus lines underwriting expense ratio decreased for the third quarter and first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021, largely due to a decrease in profit-sharing commissions for agencies. The ratios also included ongoing expense management efforts and higher earned premiums.

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Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Losses Incurred by Size


(Dollars in millions, net of reinsurance)	Three months ended September 30,							Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			% Change	2022			2021			% Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	$	—		$	—		nm	$	—		$	—		nm
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	6			—			nm	19			8			138
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	2			2			0	3			2			50
Total large losses incurred	8			2			300	22			10			120
Losses incurred but not reported	25			22			14	38			45			(16)
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	32			23			39	102			72			42
Catastrophe losses	(1)			1			nm	2			2			0
Total losses incurred	$	64		$	48		33	$	164		$	129		27

Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:							Pt. Change							Pt. Change
Current accident year losses greater than $5 million	—		%	—		%	0.0	—		%	—		%	0.0
Current accident year losses $1 million - $5 million	4.0			(0.1)			4.1	5.2			2.8			2.4
Large loss prior accident year reserve development	2.1			1.9			0.2	0.9			0.6			0.3
Total large loss ratio	6.1			1.8			4.3	6.1			3.4			2.7
Losses incurred but not reported	20.0			21.2			(1.2)	10.5			15.5			(5.0)
Other losses excluding catastrophe losses	26.3			21.9			4.4	28.4			25.0			3.4
Catastrophe losses	(0.5)			0.2			(0.7)	0.6			0.5			0.1
Total loss ratio	51.9		%	45.1		%	6.8	45.6		%	44.4		%	1.2

We continue to monitor new losses and case reserve increases greater than $1 million for trends in factors such as initial reserve levels, loss cost inflation and claim settlement expenses. Our analysis continues to indicate no unexpected concentration of these large losses and case reserve increases by risk category, geographic region, policy inception, agency or field marketing territory. In the third quarter of 2022, the excess and surplus lines total ratio for large losses, net of reinsurance, was 4.3 percentage points higher than last year's third quarter. The third-quarter 2022 amount of total large losses incurred contributed to the increase in the nine-month 2022 total large loss ratio, compared with 2021, in addition to a first-half 2022 ratio that was 1.8 points higher than the first half of 2021. We believe results for the three- and nine-month periods largely reflected normal fluctuations in loss patterns and normal variability in large case reserves for claims above $1 million.

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LIFE INSURANCE RESULTS


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Earned premiums	$	73	$	73	0	$	221	$	221	0
Fee revenues	2		1		100	4		3		33
Total revenues	75		74		1	225		224		0
Contract holders' benefits incurred	70		84		(17)	222		249		(11)
Investment interest credited to contract holders	(27)		(26)		(4)	(82)		(79)		(4)
Underwriting expenses incurred	21		21		—	63		63		0
Total benefits and expenses	64		79		(19)	203		233		(13)
Life insurance segment profit (loss)	$	11	$	(5)	nm	$	22	$	(9)	nm

Overview

The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant effect on our life insurance segment earned premiums or expenses for the first nine months of 2022. However, the pandemic did contribute to a moderate increase in death claims, primarily in the first three months of 2022. It is possible we may continue to experience higher than projected future death claims due to the pandemic.

Performance highlights for the life insurance segment include:

•Revenues – Revenues increased slightly for the nine months ended September 30, 2022, compared with the same period a year ago, driven by higher earned premiums from term life insurance, our largest life insurance product line.

Net in-force life insurance policy face amounts increased 3% to $79.883 billion at September 30, 2022, from $77.493 billion at year-end 2021.

Fixed annuity deposits received for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, were $10 million and $23 million, compared with $8 million and $35 million for the same periods of 2021. Fixed annuity deposits have a minimal impact to earned premiums because deposits received are initially recorded as liabilities. Profit is earned over time by way of interest rate spreads. We do not write variable or equity-indexed annuities.

Life Insurance Premiums


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Term life insurance	$	55	$	53	4	$	165	$	156	6
Whole life insurance	11		13		(15)	34		35		(3)
Universal life and other	7		7		0	22		30		(27)
Net earned premiums	$	73	$	73	0	$	221	$	221	0

•Profitability – Our life insurance segment typically reports a small profit or loss on a GAAP basis because profits from investment income spreads are included in our investment segment results. We include only investment income credited to contract holders (including interest assumed in life insurance policy reserve calculations) in our life insurance segment results. A profit of $22 million for our life insurance segment in the first nine months of 2022, compared with a $9 million loss for the same period of 2021, was primarily due to more favorable impacts from the unlocking of interest rate and other actuarial assumptions and more favorable mortality experience.

Life insurance segment benefits and expenses consist principally of contract holders' (policyholders') benefits incurred related to traditional life and interest-sensitive products and operating expenses incurred, net of deferred acquisition costs. Total benefits decreased in the first nine months of 2022. Life policy and investment contract reserves increased with continued growth in net in-force life insurance policy face amounts and were partially offset by favorable effects from the unlocking of interest rate and other actuarial assumptions.

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Mortality results decreased compared with the same period of 2021, but were above our 2022 projections, due to pandemic-related death claims incurred in the first three months of 2022.

Underwriting expenses for the first nine months of 2022 were slightly lower compared to the same period a year ago, as favorable impacts from the unlocking of interest rate and other actuarial assumptions more than offset higher commission and general expense levels compared to the same period of 2021.

We recognize that assets under management, capital appreciation and investment income are integral to evaluating the success of the life insurance segment because of the long duration of life products. On a basis that includes investment income and investment gains or losses from life-insurance-related invested assets, the life insurance company reported net income of $21 million and $52 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, respectively, compared with $11 million and $35 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2021. The life insurance company portfolio had net after-tax investment losses of less than $1 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, compared with net after-tax investment gains of $3 million and $6 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2021.

INVESTMENTS RESULTS

Overview

The investments segment contributes investment income and investment gains and losses to results of operations. Investments traditionally are our primary source of pretax and after-tax profits.

Investment Income

Pretax investment income grew 8% for the third quarter and 9% for the first nine months of 2022, compared with the same periods of 2021. Interest income increased by $8 million and $20 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, as net purchases of fixed-maturity securities in recent quarters and rising bond yields are working to generally offset effects of the low interest rate environment of the past several years. Higher dividend income reflected dividend rates that are increasing more slowly, minor asset allocation adjustments in our equity portfolio and net purchases of equity securities in recent quarters, helping dividend income to grow by $5 million and $24 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022.

Investments Results


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Total investment income, net of expenses	$	193	$	179	8	$	573	$	528	9
Investment interest credited to contract holders	(27)		(26)		(4)	(82)		(79)		(4)
Investment gains and losses, net	(674)		(70)		nm	(2,494)		954		nm
Investments profit (loss), pretax	$	(508)	$	83	nm	$	(2,003)	$	1,403	nm

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We continue to consider the low interest rate environment that has prevailed in recent years as well as the potential for a continuation of the recent spike in both inflation and yields as we position our portfolio. As bonds in our generally laddered portfolio mature or are called over the near term, we will reinvest with a balanced approach, keeping in mind our long-term strategy and pursuing attractive risk-adjusted after-tax yields. The table below shows the average pretax yield-to-amortized cost associated with expected principal redemptions for our fixed-maturity portfolio. The expected principal redemptions are based on par amounts and include dated maturities, calls and prefunded municipal bonds that we expect will be called during each respective time period.


(Dollars in millions)	% Yield		Principal redemptions
At September 30, 2022
Fixed-maturity pretax yield profile:
Expected to mature during the remainder of 2022	3.32	%	$	142
Expected to mature during 2023	3.76		809
Expected to mature during 2024	4.30		1,028
Average yield and total expected maturities from the remainder of 2022 through 2024	4.01		$	1,979

The table below shows the average pretax yield-to-amortized cost for fixed-maturity securities acquired during the periods indicated. The average yield for total fixed-maturity securities acquired during the first nine months of 2022 was higher than the 4.02% average yield-to-amortized cost of the fixed-maturity securities portfolio at the end of 2021. Our fixed-maturity portfolio's average yield of 4.00% for the first nine months of 2022, from the investment income table below, was lower than the 4.02% yield for the year-end 2021 fixed-maturities portfolio.


	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Average pretax yield-to-amortized cost on new fixed-maturities:
Acquired taxable fixed-maturities	5.70	%	3.46	%	4.82	%	3.49	%
Acquired tax-exempt fixed-maturities	4.32		2.83		3.85		2.70
Average total fixed-maturities acquired	5.39		3.43		4.62		3.46

While our bond portfolio more than covers our insurance reserve liabilities, we believe our diversified common stock portfolio of mainly blue chip, dividend-paying companies represents one of our best investment opportunities for the long term. We discussed our portfolio strategies in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Investments Segment, Page 24, and Item 7, Investments Outlook, Page 90. We discuss risks related to our investment income and our fixed-maturity and equity investment portfolios in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.

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The table below provides details about investment income. Average yields in this table are based on the average invested asset and cash amounts indicated in the table, using fixed-maturity securities valued at amortized cost and all other securities at fair value.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,							Nine months ended September 30,
	2022			2021			% Change	2022			2021			% Change
Investment income:
Interest	$	129		$	121		7	$	376		$	356		6
Dividends	66			61			8	203			179			13
Other	3			1			200	6			4			50
Less investment expenses	5			4			25	12			11			9
Investment income, pretax	193			179			8	573			528			9
Less income taxes	30			28			7	90			82			10
Total investment income, after-tax	$	163		$	151		8	$	483		$	446		8

Investment returns:
Average invested assets plus cash and cash equivalents	$	23,323		$	23,263			$	24,081		$	22,420
Average yield pretax	3.31		%	3.08		%		3.17		%	3.14		%
Average yield after-tax	2.80			2.60				2.67			2.65
Effective tax rate	15.8			15.6				15.8			15.5

Fixed-maturity returns:
Average amortized cost	$	12,655		$	11,931			$	12,521		$	11,673
Average yield pretax	4.08		%	4.06		%		4.00		%	4.07		%
Average yield after-tax	3.38			3.37				3.32			3.38
Effective tax rate	17.1			16.9				17.1			16.8

Total Investment Gains and Losses

Investment gains and losses are recognized on the sale of investments, for certain changes in fair values of securities even though we continue to hold the securities or as otherwise required by GAAP. The change in fair value for equity securities still held are included in investment gains and losses and also in net income. The change in unrealized gains or losses for fixed-maturity securities are included as a component of other comprehensive income (OCI). Accounting requirements for the allowance for credit losses for the fixed-maturity portfolio are disclosed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, Page 127.

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The table below summarizes total investment gains and losses, before taxes.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Investment gains and losses:
Equity securities:
Investment gains and losses on securities sold, net	$	16	$	(1)	$	34	$	6
Unrealized gains and losses on securities still held, net	(705)		(104)		(2,568)		869



Subtotal	(689)		(105)		(2,534)		875
Fixed maturities:
Gross realized gains	—		10		6		24
Gross realized losses	—		(1)		(3)		(3)
Write-down of impaired securities	—		(1)		—		(1)
Subtotal	—		8		3		20
Other	15		27		37		59
Total investment gains and losses reported in net income	(674)		(70)		(2,494)		954

Change in unrealized investment gains and losses:

Fixed maturities	(514)		(88)		(1,870)		(152)

Total	$	(1,188)	$	(158)	$	(4,364)	$	802

Of the 4,495 fixed-maturity securities in the portfolio, 118 securities were trading below 70% of amortized cost at September 30, 2022. Our asset impairment committee regularly monitors the portfolio, including a quarterly review of the entire portfolio for potential credit losses, resulting in charges disclosed in the table below. We believe that if liquidity in the markets were to significantly deteriorate or economic conditions were to significantly weaken, we could experience declines in portfolio values and possibly increases in the allowance for credit losses or write-downs to fair value.

Fixed-maturity securities written down to fair value due to an intention to be sold and changes in the allowance for credit losses were each less than $1 million for the first nine months of 2022. We had five fixed-maturity securities written down to fair value due to an intention to be sold, as disclosed in the table below, and no allowance for credit losses for the first nine months of 2021.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,				Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		2022		2021
Fixed maturities:



Municipal	$	—	$	1	$	—	$	1

Total fixed maturities	$	—	$	1	$	—	$	1

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OTHER

We report as Other the noninvestment operations of the parent company and a noninsurance subsidiary, CFC Investment Company. We also report as Other the underwriting results of Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, including earned premiums, loss and loss expenses and underwriting expenses in the table below.

Total revenues for the first nine months of 2022 for our Other operations increased, compared with the same period of 2021, primarily due to earned premiums from Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, with increases of $93 million and $17 million, respectively. Total expenses for Other increased for the first nine months of 2022, primarily due to loss and loss expenses and also underwriting expenses from Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global.

Other profit in the table below represents profit or losses before income taxes. For all periods shown, total other loss was driven by a combination of underwriting loss in aggregate from Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global plus interest expense from debt of the parent company.


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Interest and fees on loans and leases	$	2	$	2	0	$	5	$	5	0
Earned premiums	225		173		30	533		423		26
Other revenues	—		1		(100)	2		3		(33)
Total revenues	227		176		29	540		431		25
Interest expense	14		13		8	40		39		3
Loss and loss expenses	228		186		23	394		325		21
Underwriting expenses	65		45		44	159		121		31
Operating expenses	4		5		(20)	13		14		(7)
Total expenses	311		249		25	606		499		21
Total other loss	$	(84)	$	(73)	(15)	$	(66)	$	(68)	3

TAXES

We had $161 million and $481 million of income tax benefit for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, compared with $31 million and $348 million of income tax expense for the same periods of 2021. The effective tax rate for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022, was 27.8% and 24.3% compared with 16.8% and 19.1% for the same periods last year. The change in our effective tax rate between periods was primarily due to large changes in our net investment gains and losses included in income for the periods, changes in underwriting income and a $34 million release of our unrecognized tax benefit.

Historically, we have pursued a strategy of investing some portion of cash flow in tax-advantaged fixed-maturity and equity securities to minimize our overall tax liability and maximize after-tax earnings. See Tax-Exempt Fixed Maturities in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk for further discussion on municipal bond purchases in our fixed-maturity investment portfolio. For tax years after 2017, for our property casualty insurance subsidiaries, approximately 75% of interest from tax-advantaged, fixed-maturity investments and approximately 40% of dividends from qualified equities are exempt from federal tax after applying proration. For our noninsurance companies, the dividend received deduction exempts 50% of dividends from qualified equities. Our life insurance company does not own tax-advantaged, fixed-maturity investments or equities subject to the dividend received deduction. Details about our effective tax rate are in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 9, Income Taxes.

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LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

At September 30, 2022, shareholders' equity was $9.431 billion, compared with $13.105 billion at December 31, 2021. Total debt was $833 million at September 30, 2022, down $10 million from December 31, 2021. At September 30, 2022, cash and cash equivalents totaled $1.083 billion, compared with $1.139 billion at December 31, 2021.

The pandemic did not have a significant effect on our cash flows for the first nine months of 2022. In addition to our historically positive operating cash flow to meet the needs of operations, we have the ability to slow investing activities or sell a portion of our high-quality, liquid investment portfolio if such need arises. We also have additional capacity to borrow on our revolving short-term line of credit, as described further below.

SOURCES OF LIQUIDITY

Subsidiary Dividends

Our lead insurance subsidiary declared dividends of $504 million to the parent company in the first nine months of 2022, compared with $358 million for the same period of 2021. For full-year 2021, our lead insurance subsidiary paid dividends totaling $583 million to the parent company. State of Ohio regulatory requirements restrict the dividends our insurance subsidiary can pay. For full-year 2022, total dividends that our insurance subsidiary can pay to our parent company without regulatory approval are approximately $929 million.

Investing Activities

Investment income is a source of liquidity for both the parent company and its insurance subsidiaries. We continue to focus on portfolio strategies to balance near-term income generation and long-term book value growth.

Parent company obligations can be funded with income on investments held at the parent-company level or through sales of securities in that portfolio, although our investment philosophy seeks to compound cash flows over the long term. These sources of capital can help minimize subsidiary dividends to the parent company, protecting insurance subsidiary capital.

For a discussion of our historic investment strategy, portfolio allocation and quality, see our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1, Investments Segment, Page 24.

Insurance Underwriting

Our property casualty and life insurance underwriting operations provide liquidity because we generally receive premiums before paying losses under the policies purchased with those premiums. After satisfying our cash requirements, we use excess cash flows for investment, increasing future investment income.

Historically, cash receipts from property casualty and life insurance premiums, along with investment income, have been more than sufficient to pay claims, operating expenses and dividends to the parent company.

The table below shows a summary of the operating cash flow for property casualty insurance (direct method):


(Dollars in millions)	Three months ended September 30,					Nine months ended September 30,
	2022		2021		% Change	2022		2021		% Change
Premiums collected	$	1,818	$	1,634	11	$	5,295	$	4,725	12
Loss and loss expenses paid	(948)		(765)		(24)	(2,730)		(2,237)		(22)
Commissions and other underwriting expenses paid	(474)		(430)		(10)	(1,674)		(1,434)		(17)
Cash flow from underwriting	396		439		(10)	891		1,054		(15)
Investment income received	128		125		2	394		366		8
Cash flow from operations	$	524	$	564	(7)	$	1,285	$	1,420	(10)

Collected premiums for property casualty insurance rose $570 million during the first nine months of 2022, compared with the same period in 2021. Loss and loss expenses paid for the 2022 period increased $493 million. Commissions and other underwriting expenses paid increased $240 million.

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We discuss our future obligations for claims payments and for underwriting expenses in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Obligations, Page 96.

Capital Resources

At September 30, 2022, our debt-to-total-capital ratio was 8.1%, considerably below our 35% covenant threshold, with $789 million in long-term debt and $44 million in borrowing on our revolving short-term line of credit. At September 30, 2022, $256 million was available for future cash management needs as part of the general provisions of the line of credit agreement, with another $300 million available as part of an accordion feature. Based on our capital requirements at September 30, 2022, we do not anticipate a material increase in debt levels exceeding the available line of credit amount during the year. As a result, we expect changes in our debt-to-total-capital ratio to continue to be largely a function of the contribution of unrealized investment gains or losses to shareholders' equity. We have an unsecured letter of credit agreement which provides a portion of the capital needed to support Cincinnati Global's obligations at Lloyd's. The amount of this unsecured letter of credit agreement was $94 million at September 30, 2022, with no amounts drawn.

We provide details of our three long-term notes in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 3, Fair Value Measurements. None of the notes are encumbered by rating triggers.

Four independent ratings firms award insurer financial strength ratings to our property casualty insurance companies and three firms rate our life insurance company. Those firms made no changes to our parent company debt ratings during the first nine months of 2022. Our debt ratings are discussed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Liquidity and Capital Resources, Long-Term Debt, Page 95.

Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements

We do not use any special-purpose financing vehicles or have any undisclosed off-balance sheet arrangements (as that term is defined in applicable SEC rules) that are reasonably likely to have a current or future material effect on the company's financial condition, results of operation, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources. Similarly, the company holds no fair-value contracts for which a lack of marketplace quotations would necessitate the use of fair-value techniques.

USES OF LIQUIDITY

Our parent company and insurance subsidiary have contractual obligations and other commitments. In addition, one of our primary uses of cash is to enhance shareholder return.

Contractual Obligations

We estimated our future contractual obligations as of December 31, 2021, in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Contractual Obligations, Page 96. There have been no material changes to our estimates of future contractual obligations since our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Other Commitments

In addition to our contractual obligations, we have other property casualty operational commitments.

•Commissions – Commissions paid were $1.105 billion in the first nine months of 2022. Commission payments generally track with written premiums, except for annual profit-sharing commissions typically paid during the first quarter of the year.

•Other underwriting expenses – Many of our underwriting expenses are not contractual obligations, but reflect the ongoing expenses of our business. Noncommission underwriting expenses paid were $569 million in the first nine months of 2022.

There were no contributions to our qualified pension plan during the first nine months of 2022.

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Investing Activities

After fulfilling operating requirements, we invest cash flows from underwriting, investment and other corporate activities in fixed-maturity and equity securities on an ongoing basis to help achieve our portfolio objectives. We discuss our investment strategy and certain portfolio attributes in this quarterly report Item 3, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.

Uses of Capital

Uses of cash to enhance shareholder return include dividends to shareholders and shares acquired under our repurchase program. In January 2022, the board of directors declared regular quarterly cash dividends of 69 cents per share for an indicated annual rate of $2.76 per share. During the first nine months of 2022, we used $316 million to pay cash dividends to shareholders.

PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE LOSS AND LOSS EXPENSE RESERVES

For the business lines in the commercial and personal lines insurance segments, and in total for the excess and surplus lines insurance segment and other property casualty insurance operations, the following table details gross reserves among case, IBNR (incurred but not reported) and loss expense reserves, net of salvage and subrogation reserves. Reserving practices are discussed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expense Obligations and Reserves, Page 97.

Total gross reserves at September 30, 2022, increased $816 million compared with December 31, 2021. Case loss reserves increased by $171 million, IBNR loss reserves increased by $576 million and loss expense reserves increased by $69 million. The total gross increase was primarily due to our commercial casualty line of business, our excess and surplus lines insurance segment and also Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global.

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Property Casualty Gross Reserves


(Dollars in millions)	Loss reserves				Loss expense reserves		Total gross reserves
	Case reserves		IBNR reserves						Percent of total
At September 30, 2022
Commercial lines insurance:
Commercial casualty	$	1,135	$	863	$	715	$	2,713	33.7	%
Commercial property	326		118		78		522		6.5
Commercial auto	433		261		127		821		10.2
Workers' compensation	439		520		83		1,042		13.0
Other commercial	97		14		127		238		3.0
Subtotal	2,430		1,776		1,130		5,336		66.4
Personal lines insurance:
Personal auto	217		94		62		373		4.6
Homeowner	189		105		47		341		4.3
Other personal	89		92		5		186		2.3
Subtotal	495		291		114		900		11.2
Excess and surplus lines	296		224		183		703		8.7
Cincinnati Re	141		639		4		784		9.7
Cincinnati Global	140		179		3		322		4.0
Total	$	3,502	$	3,109	$	1,434	$	8,045	100.0	%
At December 31, 2021
Commercial lines insurance:
Commercial casualty	$	1,059	$	734	$	704	$	2,497	34.5	%
Commercial property	357		82		62		501		6.9
Commercial auto	419		220		124		763		10.6
Workers' compensation	442		503		85		1,030		14.3
Other commercial	91		9		116		216		3.0
Subtotal	2,368		1,548		1,091		5,007		69.3
Personal lines insurance:
Personal auto	211		53		60		324		4.5
Homeowner	168		102		44		314		4.3
Other personal	84		87		5		176		2.4
Subtotal	463		242		109		814		11.2
Excess and surplus lines	233		186		158		577		8.0
Cincinnati Re	117		460		5		582		8.1
Cincinnati Global	150		97		2		249		3.4
Total	$	3,331	$	2,533	$	1,365	$	7,229	100.0	%

LIFE POLICY AND INVESTMENT CONTRACT RESERVES

Gross life policy and investment contract reserves were $3.053 billion at September 30, 2022, compared with $3.014 billion at year-end 2021, reflecting continued growth in life insurance policies in force. We discuss our life insurance reserving practices in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Life Insurance Policyholder Obligations and Reserves, Page 103.

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OTHER MATTERS

SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES

Our significant accounting policies are discussed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, Page 127, and updated in this quarterly report Item 1, Note 1, Accounting Policies.

In conjunction with those discussions, in the Management's Discussion and Analysis in the 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, management reviewed the estimates and assumptions used to develop reported amounts related to the most significant policies. Management discussed the development and selection of those accounting estimates with the audit committee of the board of directors.

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

Our greatest exposure to market risk is through our investment portfolio. Market risk is the potential for a decrease in securities' fair value resulting from broad yet uncontrollable forces such as: inflation, economic growth or recession, interest rates, world political conditions or other widespread unpredictable events. It is comprised of many individual risks that, when combined, create a macroeconomic impact.

Our view of potential risks and our sensitivity to such risks is discussed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk, Page 112.

The fair value of our investment portfolio was $20.574 billion at September 30, 2022, down $3.763 billion from year-end 2021, including a $1.288 billion decrease in the fixed-maturity portfolio and a $2.475 billion decrease in the equity portfolio.


(Dollars in millions)	At September 30, 2022								At December 31, 2021
	Cost or amortized cost		Percent of total		Fair value		Percent of total		Cost or amortized cost		Percent of total		Fair value		Percent of total
Taxable fixed maturities	$	8,838	51.7	%	$	8,036	39.0	%	$	8,344	51.0	%	$	8,858	36.4	%
Tax-exempt fixed maturities	3,974		23.2		3,698		18.0		3,886		23.8		4,164		17.1
Common equities	3,838		22.4		8,433		41.0		3,697		22.6		10,862		44.6
Nonredeemable preferred equities	454		2.7		407		2.0		424		2.6		453		1.9

Total	$	17,104	100.0	%	$	20,574	100.0	%	$	16,351	100.0	%	$	24,337	100.0	%

At September 30, 2022, substantially all of our consolidated investment portfolio, measured at fair value, is classified as Level 1 or Level 2. See Item 1, Note 3, Fair Value Measurements, for additional discussion of our valuation techniques.

In addition to our investment portfolio, the total investments amount reported in our condensed consolidated balance sheets includes Other invested assets. Other invested assets included $311 million of private equity investments, $38 million in Lloyd's deposits, $35 million of real estate through direct property ownership and development projects in the United States and $30 million of life policy loans at September 30, 2022.

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FIXED-MATURITY SECURITIES INVESTMENTS

By maintaining a well-diversified fixed-maturity portfolio, we attempt to reduce overall risk. We invest new money in the bond market on a regular basis, targeting what we believe to be optimal risk-adjusted, after-tax yields. Risk, in this context, includes interest rate, call, reinvestment rate, credit and liquidity risk. We do not make a concerted effort to alter duration on a portfolio basis in response to anticipated movements in interest rates. By regularly investing in the bond market, we build a broad, diversified portfolio that we believe mitigates the impact of adverse economic factors.

In the first nine months of 2022, the decrease in fair value of our fixed-maturity portfolio reflected net purchases of securities, offset by a decrease in net unrealized gains, primarily due to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and a widening of corporate credit spreads. At September 30, 2022, our fixed-maturity portfolio with an average rating of A3/A was valued at 91.6% of its amortized cost, compared with 106.5% at December 31, 2021.

At September 30, 2022, our investment-grade and noninvestment-grade fixed-maturity securities represented 79.6% and 4.5% of the portfolio, respectively. The remaining 15.9% represented fixed-maturity securities that were not rated by Moody's or S&P Global Ratings.

Attributes of the fixed-maturity portfolio include:


	At September 30, 2022		At December 31, 2021
Weighted average yield-to-amortized cost	4.12	%	4.02	%
Weighted average maturity	7.4	yrs	8.0	yrs
Effective duration	5.0	yrs	4.8	yrs

We discuss maturities of our fixed-maturity portfolio in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 2, Investments, Page 134, and in this quarterly report Item 2, Investments Results.

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TAXABLE FIXED MATURITIES

Our taxable fixed-maturity portfolio, with a fair value of $8.036 billion at September 30, 2022, included:


(Dollars in millions)	At September 30, 2022		At December 31, 2021
Investment-grade corporate	$	6,160	$	6,807
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	784		931
Noninvestment-grade corporate	519		690
Commercial mortgage-backed	240		273
United States government	188		123
Government-sponsored enterprises	119		8
Foreign government	26		26


Total	$	8,036	$	8,858

Our strategy is to buy, and typically hold, fixed-maturity investments to maturity, but we monitor credit profiles and fair value movements when determining holding periods for individual securities. With the exception of United States agency issues that include government-sponsored enterprises, no individual issuer's securities accounted for more than 1.2% of the taxable fixed-maturity portfolio at September 30, 2022. Our investment-grade corporate bonds had an average rating of Baa1 by Moody's or BBB by S&P Global Ratings and represented 76.6% of the taxable fixed-maturity portfolio's fair value at September 30, 2022, compared with 76.9% at year-end 2021.

The heaviest concentration in our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio, based on fair value at

September 30, 2022, was the financial sector. It represented 43.9% of our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio, compared with 41.4% at year-end 2021. The energy sector represented 10.2% and was less than 10% at year-end 2021. No other sector exceeded 10% of our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio.

Our taxable fixed-maturity portfolio at September 30, 2022, included $240 million of commercial mortgage-backed securities with an average rating of Aa2/AA-.

TAX-EXEMPT FIXED MATURITIES

At September 30, 2022, we had $3.698 billion of tax-exempt fixed-maturity securities with an average rating of Aa2/AA by Moody's and S&P Global Ratings. We traditionally have purchased municipal bonds focusing on general obligation and essential services issues, such as water, waste disposal or others. The portfolio is well diversified among approximately 1,700 municipal bond issuers. No single municipal issuer accounted for more than 0.6% of the tax-exempt fixed-maturity portfolio at September 30, 2022.

INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Because of our strong surplus, long-term investment horizon and ability to hold most fixed-maturity investments until maturity, we believe the company is adequately positioned if interest rates were to rise. Although the fair values of our existing holdings may suffer, a higher rate environment would provide the opportunity to invest cash flow in higher-yielding securities, while reducing the likelihood of untimely redemptions of currently callable securities. While higher interest rates would be expected to continue to increase the number of fixed-maturity holdings trading below 100% of amortized cost, we believe lower fixed-maturity security values due solely to interest rate changes would not signal a decline in credit quality. We continue to manage the portfolio with an eye toward both meeting current income needs and managing interest rate risk.

Our dynamic financial planning model uses analytical tools to assess market risks. As part of this model, the effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio is continually monitored by our investment department to evaluate the theoretical impact of interest rate movements.

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The table below summarizes the effect of hypothetical changes in interest rates on the fair value of the fixed-maturity portfolio:


(Dollars in millions)	Effect from interest rate change in basis points
	-200		-100		-		100		200
At September 30, 2022	$	12,928	$	12,329	$	11,734	$	11,145	$	10,580
At December 31, 2021	$	14,327	$	13,656	$	13,022	$	12,399	$	11,768

The effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio as of September 30, 2022, was 5.0 years, up from 4.8 years at year-end 2021. The above table is a theoretical presentation showing that an instantaneous, parallel shift in the yield curve of 100 basis points could produce an approximately 5.0% change in the fair value of the fixed-maturity portfolio. Generally speaking, the higher a bond is rated, the more directly correlated movements in its fair value are to changes in the general level of interest rates, exclusive of call features. The fair values of average- to lower-rated corporate bonds are additionally influenced by the expansion or contraction of credit spreads.

In our dynamic financial planning model, the selected interest rate change of 100 to 200 basis points represents our view of a shift in rates that is quite possible over a one-year period. The rates modeled should not be considered a prediction of future events as interest rates may be much more volatile in the future. The analysis is not intended to provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in rates on our results or financial condition, nor does it take into account any actions that we might take to reduce exposure to such risks.

EQUITY INVESTMENTS

Our equity investments, with a fair value totaling $8.840 billion at September 30, 2022, included $8.433 billion of common stock securities of companies generally with strong indications of paying and growing their dividends. Other criteria we evaluate include increasing sales and earnings, proven management and a favorable outlook. We believe our equity investment style is an appropriate long-term strategy. While our long-term financial position would be affected by prolonged changes in the market valuation of our investments, we believe our strong surplus position and cash flow provide a cushion against short-term fluctuations in valuation. Continued payment of cash dividends by the issuers of our common equity holdings can provide a floor to their valuation.

The table below summarizes the effect of hypothetical changes in market prices on fair value of our equity portfolio.


(Dollars in millions)	Effect from market price change in percent
		-30%		-20%		-10%		—		10%		20%		30%
At September 30, 2022		$	6,188	$	7,072	$	7,956	$	8,840	$	9,724	$	10,608	$	11,492
At December 31, 2021		$	7,921	$	9,052	$	10,184	$	11,315	$	12,447	$	13,578	$	14,710

At September 30, 2022, Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:AAPL) was our largest single common stock holding with a fair value of $638 million, or 7.6% of our publicly traded common stock portfolio and 3.1% of the total investment portfolio. Thirty-five holdings among eight different sectors each had a fair value greater than $100 million.

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Common Stock Portfolio Industry Sector Distribution


	Percent of common stock portfolio
	At September 30, 2022				At December 31, 2021
	Cincinnati Financial		S&P 500 Industry Weightings		Cincinnati Financial		S&P 500 Industry Weightings
Sector:
Information technology	28.4	%	26.4	%	31.1	%	29.2	%
Healthcare	15.1		15.1		13.5		13.3
Financial	13.1		11.0		14.2		10.7
Industrials	11.1		7.9		11.1		7.8
Consumer staples	8.1		6.9		6.9		5.9
Consumer discretionary	7.7		11.7		8.3		12.5
Energy	4.7		4.5		4.0		2.7
Materials	4.7		2.5		4.4		2.5
Utilities	3.0		3.1		2.2		2.5
Real estate	2.8		2.8		2.7		2.8
Telecomm services	1.3		8.1		1.6		10.1
Total	100.0	%	100.0	%	100.0	%	100.0	%

UNREALIZED INVESTMENT GAINS AND LOSSES

At September 30, 2022, unrealized investment gains before taxes for the fixed-maturity portfolio totaled $37 million and unrealized investment losses amounted to $1.115 billion before taxes.

The $1.078 billion net unrealized loss position in our fixed-maturity portfolio at September 30, 2022, moved from a net unrealized gain position to a net unrealized loss position in the first nine months of 2022, primarily due to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and a widening of corporate credit spreads. The net loss position for our current fixed-maturity holdings will naturally decline over time as individual securities approach maturity. In addition, changes in interest rates can cause rapid, significant changes in fair values of fixed-maturity securities and the net loss position, as discussed in Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.

For federal income tax purposes, taxes on gains from appreciated investments generally are not due until securities are sold. We believe that the appreciated value of equity securities, compared with the cost of securities that is generally used as a tax basis, is a useful measure to help evaluate how fair value can change over time. On this basis, the net unrealized investment gains at September 30, 2022, consisted of a net gain position in our equity portfolio of $4.548 billion. Events or factors such as economic growth or recession can affect the fair value and unrealized investment gains of our equity securities. The five largest holdings in our common stock portfolio were Apple, Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT), UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH), Accenture Co. (NYSE:ACN) and AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV), which had a combined fair value of $2.069 billion.

Unrealized Investment Losses

We expect the number of fixed-maturity securities trading below amortized cost to fluctuate as interest rates rise or fall and credit spreads expand or contract due to prevailing economic conditions. Further, amortized costs for some securities are revised through write-downs recognized in prior periods. At September 30, 2022, 4,049 of the 4,495 fixed-maturity securities we owned had fair values below amortized cost, compared with 278 of the 4,329 securities we owned at year-end 2021. The 4,049 holdings with fair values below amortized cost at September 30, 2022, represented 90.7% of the fair value of our fixed-maturity investment portfolio and $1.115 billion in unrealized losses.

•2,508 of the 4,049 holdings had fair value between 90% and 100% of amortized cost at September 30, 2022. These primarily consist of securities whose current valuation is largely the result of interest rate factors. The fair value of these 2,508 securities was $7.335 billion, and they accounted for $287 million in unrealized losses.

•1,423 of the 4,049 fixed-maturity holdings had fair value between 70% and 90% of amortized cost at
September 30, 2022. We believe the 1,423 fixed-maturity securities will continue to pay interest and ultimately

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pay principal upon maturity. The issuers of these 1,423 securities have strong cash flow to service their debt and meet their contractual obligation to make principal payments. The fair value of these securities was $3.132 billion, and they accounted for $742 million in unrealized losses.

•118 of the 4,049 fixed-maturity holdings had fair value below 70% of amortized cost at September 30, 2022. We believe these fixed-maturity securities will continue to pay interest and ultimately pay principal upon maturity. The fair value of these securities was $172 million, and they accounted for $86 million in unrealized losses.

The table below reviews fair values and unrealized losses by investment category and by the overall duration of the securities' continuous unrealized loss position.


(Dollars in millions)	Less than 12 months				12 months or more				Total
At September 30, 2022	Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses		Fair value		Unrealized losses
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	5,835	$	535	$	376	$	126	$	6,211	$	661
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	3,831		414		48		19		3,879		433
Commercial mortgage-backed	225		11		14		2		239		13
United States government	173		5		12		—		185		5
Government-sponsored enterprises	101		3		3		—		104		3
Foreign government	21		—		—		—		21		—
Total	$	10,186	$	968	$	453	$	147	$	10,639	$	1,115





At December 31, 2021
Fixed maturity securities:
Corporate	$	861	$	13	$	15	$	—	$	876	$	13
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	105		2		2		1		107		3
Commercial mortgage-backed	10		—		11		—		21		—
United States government	48		—		—		—		48		—
Government-sponsored enterprises	7		—		—		—		7		—
Foreign government	16		—		—		—		16		—





Total	$	1,047	$	15	$	28	$	1	$	1,075	$	16

At September 30, 2022, applying our invested asset impairment policy, we determined that the total of $1.115 billion, for securities in an unrealized loss position in the table above, was not the result of a credit loss.

During the first nine months of 2022, two fixed-maturity securities that were written down to fair value, due to an intention to be sold, and changes in allowance for credit losses were each less than $1 million. During the first nine months of 2021, five securities were written down to fair value due to an intention to be sold, resulting in $1 million of noncash charges, and we had no allowance for credit losses.

During the full year of 2021, we wrote down five securities and recorded $1 million in impairment charges. At December 31, 2021, 278 fixed-maturity securities with a total unrealized loss of $16 million were in an unrealized loss position. Of that total, no fixed-maturity securities had fair values below 70% of amortized cost.

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The following table summarizes the investment portfolio by severity of decline:


(Dollars in millions)	Number of issues	Amortized cost		Fair value		Gross unrealized gain (loss)		Gross investment income
At September 30, 2022
Taxable fixed maturities:
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost	44	$	142	$	95	$	(47)	$	4
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost	1,996	8,186		7,396		(790)		240
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost	132	510		545		35		27
Investment income on securities sold in current year	—	—		—		—		13
Total	2,172	8,838		8,036		(802)		284
Tax-exempt fixed maturities:
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost	74	116		77		(39)		2
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost	1,935	3,310		3,071		(239)		74
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost	314	548		550		2		14
Investment income on securities sold in current year	—	—		—		—		2
Total	2,323	3,974		3,698		(276)		92


















Fixed-maturities summary:
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost	118	258		172		(86)		6
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost	3,931	11,496		10,467		(1,029)		314
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost	446	1,058		1,095		37		41
Investment income on securities sold in current year	—	—		—		—		15
Total	4,495	$	12,812	$	11,734	$	(1,078)	$	376

At December 31, 2021
Fixed-maturities summary:
Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost	278	1,091		1,075		(16)		17
Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost	4,051	11,139		11,947		808		427
Investment income on securities sold in current year	—	—		—		—		33
Total	4,329	$	12,230	$	13,022	$	792	$	477

See our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Asset Impairment, Page 57.

Item 4. Controls and Procedures

Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures – The company maintains disclosure controls and procedures (as that term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Exchange Act)).

Any controls and procedures, no matter how well designed and operated, can provide only reasonable assurance of achieving the desired control objectives. The company's management, with the participation of the company's chief executive officer and chief financial officer, has evaluated the effectiveness of the design and operation of the company's disclosure controls and procedures as of September 30, 2022. Based upon that evaluation, the company's chief executive officer and chief financial officer concluded that the design and operation of the company's disclosure controls and procedures provided reasonable assurance that the disclosure controls and procedures are effective to ensure:

•that information required to be disclosed in the company's reports under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the Securities and Exchange Commission's rules and forms, and

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•that such information is accumulated and communicated to the company's management, including its chief executive officer and chief financial officer, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosures.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting – During the three months ended September 30, 2022, there were no changes in our internal controls over financial reporting that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting. There was no significant impact to our internal controls over financial reporting while the majority of our associates were working remotely due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Part II – Other Information

Item 1. Legal Proceedings

Neither the company nor any of our subsidiaries are involved in any litigation believed to be material other than ordinary, routine litigation incidental to the nature of our business.

Item 1A. Risk Factors

Our risk factors have not changed materially since they were described in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed February 24, 2022. Investors should not interpret the disclosure of a risk to imply that the risk has not already materialized.

We have limited direct exposure within our insurance operations to businesses or individuals in Russia or the Ukraine, reported in our consolidated property casualty insurance catastrophe losses and loss expenses incurred, net of reinsurance. We do not have material exposure to investments subject to embargos or Russian reinsurance counterparties. However, the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine is impacting global economic, banking, commodity, and financial markets, exacerbating ongoing economic challenges, including inflation and supply chain disruption, which impacts insurance loss costs, premiums and investment valuation.

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Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds

We did not sell any of our shares that were not registered under the Securities Act during the first nine months of 2022. Our repurchase program does not have an expiration date. On January 26, 2018, an additional 15 million shares were authorized, which expanded our current repurchase program. We have 7,428,512 shares available for purchase under our programs at September 30, 2022.


Period	Total number of shares purchased	Average price paid per share		Total number of shares purchased as part of publicly announced plans or programs	Maximum number of shares that may yet be purchased under the plans or programs






July 1-31, 2022	212,980	$	97.16	212,980	9,278,941
August 1-31, 2022	1,787,020	98.63		1,787,020	7,491,921
September 1-30, 2022	63,409	99.36		63,409	7,428,512
Totals	2,063,409	98.50		2,063,409

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Item 6. Exhibits


Exhibit No.						Exhibit Description
3.1						Amended and Restated Articles of Incorporation of Cincinnati Financial Corporation (incorporated by reference to the company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2017, Exhibit 3.1)
3.2						Amended and Restated Code of Regulations of Cincinnati Financial Corporation, as of May 5, 2018 (incorporated by reference to the company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2018, Exhibit 3.2)
31A						Certification pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002 – Chief Executive Officer
31B						Certification pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002 – Chief Financial Officer
32						Certification pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002
101.INS						The instance document does not appear in the interactive data file because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document.
101.SCH						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document
101.CAL						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document
101.DEF						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document
101.LAB						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document
101.PRE						XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document
104						Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101)

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SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.


CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
Date: October 31, 2022

/S/ Michael J. Sewell
Michael J. Sewell, CPA
Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer
(Principal Accounting Officer)

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