MERCADOLIBRE INC - Quarter Report: 2020 June (Form 10-Q)
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UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
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FORM 10-Q
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(Mark One)
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x | QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 |
For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2020
-OR-
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¨ | TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 |
For the transition period from to
Commission file number 001-33647
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MercadoLibre, Inc.
(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its Charter)
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Delaware |
| 98-0212790 |
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) |
| (I.R.S. Employer Identification Number) |
Arias 3751, 7th Floor
Buenos Aires, , C1430CRG
(Address of registrant’s principal executive offices)
(+5411) 4640-8000
(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)
(Former name, former address and former fiscal year, if changed since last report)
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Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: | ||||
Title of each class | Trading Symbol(s) | Name of each exchange on which registered | ||
Common Stock, $0.001 par value per share | MELI | Nasdaq Global Select Market |
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports) and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes x No ¨
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit such files. Yes x No ¨
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, smaller reporting company, or an emerging growth company. See definition of “large accelerated filer”, “accelerated filer”, “smaller reporting company” and “emerging growth company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act:
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Large Accelerated Filer |
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| Accelerated Filer |
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Non-Accelerated Filer |
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| Smaller Reporting Company |
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| Emerging Growth Company |
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If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act ¨
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes ¨ No x
APPLICABLE ONLY TO CORPORATE ISSUERS:
Indicate the number of shares outstanding of each of the issuer’s classes of common stock, as of the latest practicable date.
49,709,955 shares of the issuer’s common stock, $0.001 par value, outstanding as of August 7, 2020.
MERCADOLIBRE, INC.
INDEX TO FORM 10-Q
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PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION |
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Item 1 — Unaudited Interim Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements |
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Interim Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets as of June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019 | 1 |
2 | |
3 | |
4 | |
6 | |
Notes to Interim Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited) | 7 |
Item 2 — Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations | 36 |
Item 3 — Qualitative and Quantitative Disclosures About Market Risk | 59 |
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MercadoLibre, Inc.
Interim Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets
As of June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019
(In thousands of U.S. dollars, except par value)
(Unaudited)
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| June 30, |
| December 31, |
| 2020 |
| 2019 |
Assets |
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Current assets: |
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Cash and cash equivalents | $ 1,169,550 |
| $ 1,384,740 |
Restricted cash and cash equivalents | 493,808 |
| 66,684 |
Short-term investments (530,660 and 522,798 held in guarantee) | 2,124,872 |
| 1,597,241 |
Accounts receivable, net | 42,423 |
| 35,446 |
Credit cards receivable and other means of payment, net | 646,739 |
| 379,969 |
Loans receivable, net | 139,148 |
| 182,105 |
Prepaid expenses | 23,141 |
| 45,309 |
Inventory | 20,831 |
| 8,626 |
Other assets | 94,042 |
| 88,736 |
Total current assets | 4,754,554 |
| 3,788,856 |
Non-current assets: |
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Long-term investments | 5,790 |
| 263,983 |
Loans receivable, net | 5,055 |
| 6,439 |
Property and equipment, net | 263,041 |
| 244,257 |
Operating lease right-of-use assets | 186,851 |
| 200,449 |
Goodwill | 81,799 |
| 87,609 |
Intangible assets, net | 15,942 |
| 14,275 |
Deferred tax assets | 93,897 |
| 117,582 |
Other assets | 45,807 |
| 58,241 |
Total non-current assets | 698,182 |
| 992,835 |
Total assets | $ 5,452,736 |
| $ 4,781,691 |
Liabilities |
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Current liabilities: |
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Accounts payable and accrued expenses | $ 417,759 |
| $ 372,309 |
Funds payable to customers | 1,324,605 |
| 894,057 |
Salaries and social security payable | 114,944 |
| 101,841 |
Taxes payable | 141,226 |
| 60,247 |
Loans payable and other financial liabilities | 591,683 |
| 186,138 |
Operating lease liabilities | 25,113 |
| 23,259 |
Other liabilities | 44,449 |
| 114,469 |
Total current liabilities | 2,659,779 |
| 1,752,320 |
Non-current liabilities: |
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Salaries and social security payable | 25,279 |
| 26,803 |
Loans payable and other financial liabilities | 610,899 |
| 631,353 |
Operating lease liabilities | 168,589 |
| 176,673 |
Deferred tax liabilities | 65,273 |
| 99,952 |
Other liabilities | 15,825 |
| 12,627 |
Total non-current liabilities | 885,865 |
| 947,408 |
Total liabilities | $ 3,545,644 |
| $ 2,699,728 |
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Commitments and Contingencies (Note 9) |
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Redeemable convertible preferred stock, $0.001 par value, 40,000,000 shares authorized, |
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100,000 shares issued and outstanding at June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019 | $ 98,843 |
| $ 98,843 |
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Equity |
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Common stock, $0.001 par value, 110,000,000 shares authorized, |
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49,709,955 shares issued and outstanding at June 30, |
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2020 and December 31, 2019 | $ 50 |
| $ 50 |
Additional paid-in capital | 1,964,140 |
| 2,067,869 |
Treasury stock | (1,440) |
| (720) |
Retained earnings | 350,860 |
| 322,592 |
Accumulated other comprehensive loss | (505,361) |
| (406,671) |
Total Equity | 1,808,249 |
| 1,983,120 |
Total Liabilities, Redeemable convertible preferred stock and Equity | $ 5,452,736 |
| $ 4,781,691 |
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these interim condensed consolidated financial statements.
MercadoLibre, Inc.
Interim Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income
For the six and three-month periods ended June 30, 2020 and 2019
(In thousands of U.S. dollars, except for share data)
(Unaudited)
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| Six Months Ended June 30, |
| Three Months Ended June 30, | ||||
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| 2020 |
| 2019 |
| 2020 |
| 2019 |
Net revenues |
| $ 1,530,460 |
| $ 1,019,012 |
| $ 878,369 |
| $ 545,242 |
Cost of net revenues |
| (790,474) |
| (509,578) |
| (451,197) |
| (272,812) |
Gross profit |
| 739,986 |
| 509,434 |
| 427,172 |
| 272,430 |
Operating expenses: |
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Product and technology development |
| (146,689) |
| (106,292) |
| (73,254) |
| (53,923) |
Sales and marketing |
| (390,583) |
| (311,368) |
| (184,076) |
| (180,692) |
General and administrative |
| (132,970) |
| (94,123) |
| (70,404) |
| (50,303) |
Total operating expenses |
| (670,242) |
| (511,783) |
| (327,734) |
| (284,918) |
Income (loss) from operations |
| 69,744 |
| (2,349) |
| 99,438 |
| (12,488) |
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Other income (expenses): |
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Interest income and other financial gains |
| 55,566 |
| 58,128 |
| 18,782 |
| 33,684 |
Interest expense and other financial losses |
| (50,561) |
| (30,238) |
| (26,977) |
| (14,679) |
Foreign currency (losses) gains |
| (2,089) |
| (2,886) |
| (1,903) |
| 783 |
Net income before income tax (expense) gain |
| 72,660 |
| 22,655 |
| 89,340 |
| 7,300 |
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Income tax (expense) gain |
| (37,822) |
| 5,426 |
| (33,393) |
| 8,917 |
Net income |
| $ 34,838 |
| $ 28,081 |
| $ 55,947 |
| $ 16,217 |
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| Six Months Ended June 30, |
| Three Months Ended June 30, | ||||
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| 2020 |
| 2019 |
| 2020 |
| 2019 |
Basic EPS |
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Basic net income |
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Available to shareholders per common share |
| $ 0.66 |
| $ 0.45 |
| $ 1.11 |
| $ 0.31 |
Weighted average of outstanding common shares |
| 49,709,964 |
| 47,658,610 |
| 49,709,973 |
| 49,318,522 |
Diluted EPS |
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Diluted net income |
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Available to shareholders per common share |
| $ 0.66 |
| $ 0.45 |
| $ 1.11 |
| $ 0.31 |
Weighted average of outstanding common shares |
| 49,709,964 |
| 47,658,610 |
| 49,709,973 |
| 49,318,522 |
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The accompanying notes are an integral part of these interim condensed consolidated financial statements.
MercadoLibre, Inc.
Interim Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income
For the six and three-month periods ended June 30, 2020 and 2019
(In thousands of U.S. dollars)
(Unaudited)
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| Six Months Ended June 30, |
| Three Months Ended June 30, | ||||
| 2020 |
| 2019 |
| 2020 |
| 2019 |
Net income | $ 34,838 |
| $ 28,081 |
| $ 55,947 |
| $ 16,217 |
Other comprehensive (loss) income, net of income tax: |
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Currency translation adjustment | (100,650) |
| 3,353 |
| (6,052) |
| 3,647 |
Unrealized gains on hedging activities | 4,978 |
| — |
| 997 |
| — |
Unrealized net gains (loss) on available for sale investments | 1,061 |
| 2,504 |
| (1,207) |
| 492 |
Less: Reclassification adjustment for gains from accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income | 4,079 |
| 2,729 |
| 2,375 |
| — |
Net change in accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income, net of income tax | (98,690) |
| 3,128 |
| (8,637) |
| 4,139 |
Total Comprehensive (loss) income | $ (63,852) |
| $ 31,209 |
| $ 47,310 |
| $ 20,356 |
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these interim condensed consolidated financial statements.
MercadoLibre, Inc.
Interim Condensed Consolidated Statements of Equity
For the six and three-month periods ended June 30, 2020 and 2019
(In thousands of U.S. dollars)
(Unaudited)
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| Accumulated |
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| Additional |
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| other |
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| Common stock |
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| paid-in |
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| Treasury |
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| Retained |
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| comprehensive |
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| Total | |||
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| Shares |
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| Amount |
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| Stock |
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| Earnings |
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| loss |
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| Equity |
Balance as of December 31, 2019 |
| 49,710 |
| $ | 50 |
| $ | 2,067,869 |
| $ | (720) |
| $ | 322,592 |
| $ | (406,671) |
| $ | 1,983,120 |
Changes in accounting standards |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (4,570) |
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| — |
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| (4,570) |
Balance as of December 31, 2019 Restated |
| 49,710 |
| $ | 50 |
| $ | 2,067,869 |
| $ | (720) |
| $ | 318,022 |
| $ | (406,671) |
| $ | 1,978,550 |
Stock-based compensation — restricted shares issued |
| — |
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| — |
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| 179 |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 179 |
Net loss |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (21,109) |
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| — |
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| (21,109) |
Redeemable convertible preferred stock dividend distribution ($9.99 per share) |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (1,000) |
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| — |
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| (1,000) |
Other comprehensive loss |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (90,053) |
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| (90,053) |
Balance as of March 31, 2020 |
| 49,710 |
| $ | 50 |
| $ | 2,068,048 |
| $ | (720) |
| $ | 295,913 |
| $ | (496,724) |
| $ | 1,866,567 |
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Stock-based compensation — restricted shares issued |
| 1 |
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| — |
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| 187 |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 187 |
Common Stock repurchased |
| (1) |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (720) |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (720) |
Capped Call |
| — |
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| — |
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| (104,095) |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (104,095) |
Redeemable convertible preferred stock dividend distribution ($9.99 per share) |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (1,000) |
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| — |
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| (1,000) |
Net income |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 55,947 |
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| — |
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| 55,947 |
Other comprehensive loss |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (8,637) |
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| (8,637) |
Balance as of June 30, 2020 |
| 49,710 |
| $ | 50 |
| $ | 1,964,140 |
| $ | (1,440) |
| $ | 350,860 |
| $ | (505,361) |
| $ | 1,808,249 |
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| Accumulated |
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| Additional |
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| other |
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| Common stock |
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| paid-in |
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| Retained |
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| comprehensive |
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| Total | |||
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| Shares |
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| Amount |
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| capital |
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| Earnings |
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| loss |
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| Equity |
Balance as of December 31, 2018 |
| 45,203 |
| $ | 45 |
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| 224,800 |
| $ | 503,432 |
| $ | (391,577) |
| $ | 336,700 |
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Common Stock issued |
| 4,116 |
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| 4 |
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| 1,866,496 |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 1,866,500 |
Exercise of convertible notes |
| — |
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| — |
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| 2 |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 2 |
Unwind Capped Call |
| — |
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| — |
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| 3 |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 3 |
Net income |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 11,864 |
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| — |
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| 11,864 |
Amortization of Preferred Stock discount |
| — |
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| — |
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| 5,841 |
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| (5,841) |
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| — |
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| — |
Other comprehensive loss |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (1,011) |
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| (1,011) |
Balance as of March 31, 2019 |
| 49,319 |
| $ | 49 |
| $ | 2,097,142 |
| $ | 509,455 |
| $ | (392,588) |
| $ | 2,214,058 |
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Transaction Costs |
| — |
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| — |
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| 715 |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 715 |
Exercise of convertible notes |
| — |
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| — |
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| 2 |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 2 |
Capped Call |
| — |
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| — |
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| (88,362) |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (88,362) |
Redeemable convertible preferred stock dividend distribution ($9.99 per share) |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| (1,000) |
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| — |
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| (1,000) |
Net income |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 16,217 |
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| — |
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| 16,217 |
Other comprehensive income |
| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| — |
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| 4,139 |
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| 4,139 |
Balance as of June 30, 2019 |
| 49,319 |
| $ | 49 |
| $ | 2,009,497 |
| $ | 524,672 |
| $ | (388,449) |
| $ | 2,145,769 |
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these interim condensed consolidated financial statements.
MercadoLibre, Inc.
Interim Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
For the six-month periods ended June 30, 2020 and 2019
(In thousands of U.S. dollars)
(Unaudited)
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| Six Months Ended June 30, | ||
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| 2020 |
| 2019 |
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Cash flows from operations: |
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Net income |
| $ 34,838 |
| $ 28,081 |
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities: |
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Unrealized devaluation loss, net |
| 29,348 |
| 13,366 |
Depreciation and amortization |
| 44,202 |
| 32,975 |
Accrued interest |
| (28,933) |
| (24,684) |
Non cash interest, convertible notes amortization of debt discount and amortization of debt issuance costs and other charges |
| 75,568 |
| 11,140 |
Financial results on derivative instruments |
| (21,826) |
| (69) |
Stock-based compensation expense — restricted shares |
| 366 |
| — |
LTRP accrued compensation |
| 51,907 |
| 32,208 |
Deferred income taxes |
| (31,145) |
| (34,743) |
Changes in assets and liabilities: |
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Accounts receivable |
| 23,147 |
| (6,900) |
Credit cards receivable and other means of payment |
| (343,229) |
| (61,562) |
Prepaid expenses |
| 20,807 |
| 8,857 |
Inventory |
| (14,270) |
| (1,191) |
Other assets |
| (6,965) |
| (12,651) |
Payables and accrued expenses |
| 170,100 |
| 41,798 |
Funds payable to customers |
| 606,307 |
| 118,421 |
Other liabilities |
| (73,134) |
| 3,587 |
Interest received from investments |
| 27,597 |
| 17,292 |
Net cash provided by operating activities |
| 564,685 |
| 165,925 |
Cash flows from investing activities: |
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Purchase of investments |
| (2,326,013) |
| (2,332,544) |
Proceeds from sale and maturity of investments |
| 1,910,311 |
| 1,086,461 |
Receipts from settlements of derivative instruments |
| 8,624 |
| — |
Payment for acquired businesses, net of cash acquired |
| (6,937) |
| — |
Purchases of intangible assets |
| (87) |
| (34) |
Changes in principal of loans receivable, net |
| (39,092) |
| (97,468) |
Purchases of property and equipment |
| (94,834) |
| (71,361) |
Net cash used in investing activities |
| (548,028) |
| (1,414,946) |
Cash flows from financing activities: |
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Proceeds from loans payable and other financial liabilities |
| 1,781,040 |
| 95,603 |
Payments on loans payable and other financing liabilities |
| (1,353,658) |
| (55,236) |
Payment of finance lease obligations |
| (1,064) |
| (889) |
Purchase of convertible note capped call |
| (104,095) |
| (88,362) |
Dividends paid of preferred stock |
| (2,000) |
| (844) |
Common Stock repurchased |
| (720) |
| — |
Proceeds from issuance of convertible redeemable preferred stock, net |
| — |
| 98,688 |
Proceeds from issuance of common stock, net |
| — |
| 1,867,215 |
Net cash provided by financing activities |
| 319,503 |
| 1,916,175 |
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and cash equivalents |
| (124,226) |
| (3,527) |
Net increase in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and cash equivalents |
| 211,934 |
| 663,627 |
Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and cash equivalents, beginning of the period |
| $ 1,451,424 |
| $ 464,695 |
Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and cash equivalents, end of the period |
| $ 1,663,358 |
| $ 1,128,322 |
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these interim condensed consolidated financial statements.
1. Nature of Business
MercadoLibre, Inc. (“MercadoLibre” or the “Company”) was incorporated in the state of Delaware, in the United States of America in October 1999. MercadoLibre is the largest online commerce ecosystem in Latin America, serving as an integrated regional platform and as a provider of necessary online and technology tools that allow businesses and individuals to trade products and services in the region. The Company enables commerce through its marketplace platform (including online classifieds for vehicles, services and real estate), which allows users to buy and sell in most of Latin America.
Through Mercado Pago, the FinTech solution, MercadoLibre enables individuals and businesses to send and receive online payments; through Mercado Envios, MercadoLibre facilitates the shipping of goods from sellers to buyers; through the advertising products, MercadoLibre facilitates advertising services for large retailers and brands to promote their product and services on the web; through Mercado Shops, MercadoLibre allows users to set-up, manage, and promote their own on-line web-stores under a subscription-based business model; through Mercado Credito, MercadoLibre extends loans to certain merchants and consumers; and through Mercado Fondo, MercadoLibre allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts.
As of June 30, 2020, MercadoLibre, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, operated online ecommerce platforms directed towards Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Peru, Mexico, Panama, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Uruguay, Bolivia, Guatemala, Paraguay and Venezuela. Additionally, MercadoLibre operates its FinTech solution in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Uruguay. It also offers a shipping solution directed towards Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Uruguay.
2. Summary of significant accounting policies
Basis of presentation
The accompanying unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements are prepared in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (U.S. GAAP) and include the accounts of the Company, its wholly-owned subsidiaries and consolidated Variable Interest Entities (“VIE”). These interim condensed consolidated financial statements are stated in U.S. dollars, except where otherwise indicated. Intercompany transactions and balances with subsidiaries have been eliminated for consolidation purposes.
Substantially all net revenues, cost of net revenues and operating expenses are generated in the Company’s foreign operations. Long-lived assets, intangible assets and goodwill located in the foreign jurisdictions totaled $360,133 thousands and $345,204 thousands as of June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, respectively.
These interim condensed consolidated financial statements reflect the Company’s consolidated financial position as of June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019. These consolidated financial statements include the Company’s consolidated statements of income, comprehensive income and equity for the six and three-month periods ended June 30, 2020 and 2019 and statements of cash flows for the six-months periods ended June 30, 2020 and 2019. These interim condensed consolidated financial statements include all normal recurring adjustments that Management believes are necessary to fairly state the Company’s financial position, operating results and cash flows.
Because all of the disclosures required by U.S. GAAP for annual consolidated financial statements are not included herein, these unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with the audited consolidated financial statements and the notes thereto for the year ended December 31, 2019, contained in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). The condensed consolidated statements of income, comprehensive income, equity and cash flows for the periods presented herein are not necessarily indicative of results expected for any future period. For a more detailed discussion of the Company’s significant accounting policies, see note 2 to the financial statements in the Company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019. During the six-month period ended June 30, 2020, there were no material updates made to the Company’s significant accounting policies, except for the adoption of ASC 326 as of January 1, 2020. See Note 2 to these interim condensed consolidated financial statements for more details.
Revenue recognition
Revenue recognition criteria for the services mentioned above are described in note 2 to the consolidated financial statements in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019.
Contract Balances
Timing of revenue recognition may differ from the timing of invoicing to customers. Receivables represent amounts invoiced and revenue recognized prior to invoicing when the Company has satisfied the performance obligation and has the unconditional right to payment. Receivables are presented net of allowance for doubtful accounts, loans receivable and chargebacks of $70,790 thousands and $38,079 thousands as of June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, respectively.
Deferred revenue consists of fees received related to unsatisfied performance obligations at the end of the period in accordance with ASC 606. Due to the generally short-term duration of contracts, the majority of the performance obligations are satisfied in the following reporting period. Deferred revenue as of December 31, 2019 and 2018 was $16,590 thousands and $5,918 thousands, respectively, of which $8,475 thousands and $4,193 thousands were recognized as revenue during the six-month periods ended June 30, 2020 and 2019, respectively.
As of June 30, 2020, total deferred revenue was $17,052 thousands, mainly due to fees related to listing and optional feature services billed and loyalty programs that are expected to be recognized as revenue in the coming months.
Allowances for doubtful accounts on accounts receivable and loans receivable
Since January 1, 2020 the Company maintains allowances for doubtful accounts for Management’s estimate of current expected credit losses (“CECL”) that may result if customers do not make the required payments.
Measurement of current expected credit losses
The company estimates its allowance for credit losses as the lifetime expected credit losses of the accounts receivables mentioned above. The CECL represent the present value of the uncollectible portion of the principal, interest, late fees, and other allowable charges.
Loans Receivable
Loans Receivable in this portfolio include the products that the company offers to: 1) on-line merchant, 2) in-store merchant and 3) consumers.
For loans receivable that share similar risk characteristics such as product type, country, unpaid installments, days delinquent, and other relevant factors, the company estimates the lifetime expected credit loss allowance based on a collective assessment.
The lifetime expected credit losses is determined by applying probability of default and loss given default models to monthly projected exposures, then discounting these cash flows to present value using the portfolio’s loans interest rate, estimated as a weighted average of the original effective interest rate of all the loans that conform the portfolio segment.
The probability of default is an estimation of the likelihood that a loan receivable will default over a given time horizon. Probability of default models are estimated using a transition matrix method; these matrices are constructed using roll rates and then transformed, taking into account the expected future delinquency rate (forward-looking models). Therefore, the models include macroeconomic outlook or projections and recent performance. With this model, the Company estimates marginal monthly default probabilities for each delinquency bucket, type of product and country. Each marginal monthly probability of default represents a different possible scenario of default.
The exposure at default is equal to the receivables’ expected outstanding principal, interest and other allowable balances. The Company estimates the exposure at default that the portfolio of loans would have in each possible moment of default, meaning for each possible scenario mentioned above.
The loss given default is the percentage of the exposure at default that is not recoverable. The Company estimates this percentage using the transition matrix method mentioned above and the portfolio segment´s interest rate.
The measurement of CECL is based on probability-weighted scenarios (probability of default for each month), in view of past events (roll rates), current conditions and adjustments to reflect