Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. - Quarter Report: 2019 June (Form 10-Q)

Except where the context otherwise requires or where otherwise indicated: (i) all references herein to ‘‘we,’’ ‘‘us,’’ ‘‘our,’’ ‘‘Natural Grocers’’ and the “Company’’ refer collectively to Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries and (ii) all references to a “fiscal year” refer to a year beginning on October 1 of the previous year and ending on September 30 of such year (for example, “fiscal year 2019” refers to the year from October 1, 2018 to September 30, 2019).

Forward-Looking Statements

This Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q (this Form 10-Q) includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 in addition to historical information. These forward-looking statements are included throughout this Form 10-Q, including in the section entitled “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.” All statements that are not statements of historical fact, including those that relate to matters such as our industry, business strategy, goals and expectations concerning our market position, future operations, margins, profitability, capital expenditures, liquidity and capital resources, future growth, pending legal proceedings and other financial and operating information, are forward looking statements. We may use the words “anticipate,” “assume,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “project,” “future,” “target” and similar terms and phrases to identify forward-looking statements in this Form 10-Q.

The forward-looking statements contained in this Form 10-Q are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. We cannot assure you that future developments affecting us will be those we have anticipated. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in global, regional or local political, economic, business, competitive, market, regulatory and other factors, many of which are beyond our control. We believe these factors include those referenced in Item 1A - “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2018 (the Form 10-K) and Part II, Item 1A - “Risk Factors” in this Form 10-Q. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of our assumptions prove incorrect, our actual results may vary in material respects from those projected in these forward-looking statements.

Any forward-looking statement made by us in this Form 10-Q speaks only as of the date of this report. Factors or events that could cause our actual results to differ may emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict all of them. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws. You are advised, however, to consult any disclosures we may make in our future reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC). Our reports and other filings with the SEC are available at the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Our reports and other filings with the SEC are also available, free of charge, through our website at www.naturalgrocers.com.

PART I. Financial Information

Item 1. Financial Statements

NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE, INC.

Consolidated Balance Sheets

(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)

See accompanying notes to unaudited interim consolidated financial statements.

NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE, INC.

Consolidated Statements of Income

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)

See accompanying notes to unaudited interim consolidated financial statements.

NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE, INC.

Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands)

⁽¹⁾ Certain prior year amounts have been separated for consistency with current year presentation.

See accompanying notes to unaudited interim consolidated financial statements.

NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE, INC.

Consolidated Statements of Changes in Stockholders’ Equity

For the Nine Months Ended June 30, 2019 and June 30, 2018

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)

See accompanying notes to unaudited interim consolidated financial statements.

NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE, INC.

Notes to Unaudited Interim Consolidated Financial Statements

June 30, 2019 and 2018

Item 2.  Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (MD&A) should be read in conjunction with our unaudited consolidated financial statements and notes thereto included elsewhere in this Form 10-Q and with the audited consolidated financial statements and notes thereto in our Form 10-K. This MD&A contains forward-looking statements. Refer to “Forward-Looking Statements” at the beginning of this Form 10-Q for an explanation of these types of statements. Summarized numbers included in this section, and corresponding percentage or basis point changes, may not sum due to the effects of rounding.

Company Overview

We operate natural and organic grocery and dietary supplement stores that are focused on providing high-quality products at affordable prices, exceptional customer service, nutrition education and community outreach. We offer a variety of natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements that meet our strict quality standards. We believe we have been at the forefront of the natural and organic foods movement since our founding. We are headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado. As of June 30, 2019, we operated 152 stores in 19 states, including Colorado, Arkansas, Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming. We also operate a bulk food repackaging facility and distribution center in Golden, Colorado.

We offer a variety of natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements that meet our strict quality guidelines. The size of our stores varies from approximately 5,000 to 16,000 selling square feet. During the twelve months ended June 30, 2019, our new stores averaged approximately 10,000 selling square feet.

The growth in the organic and natural foods industry and growing consumer interest in health and nutrition have enabled us to continue to open new stores and enter new markets. During the five fiscal years ended September 30, 2018, we increased our store count at a compound annual growth rate of 15.5%. In fiscal year 2018, we opened eight new stores. We currently plan to open seven new stores in fiscal year 2019, five of which opened during the nine months ended June 30, 2019. We have not opened any new stores since June 30, 2019. As of the date of this report, we have signed leases for six new stores that we plan to open in fiscal years 2019 and beyond. During the three months ended June 30, 2019, we purchased the land and building at which we plan to open one new store. In addition, since June 30, 2019, we have purchased the land and building for another new store. We plan to relocate five stores in fiscal year 2019, four of which were relocated during the nine months ended June 30, 2019. Since June 30, 2019, we have relocated one store.

Performance Highlights

Key highlights of our performance for the three and nine months ended June 30, 2019 are discussed briefly below and in further detail throughout this MD&A. Key financial metrics, including, but not limited to, comparable store sales, daily average comparable store sales, mature store sales and daily average mature store sales are defined in the section “Key Financial Metrics in Our Business,” presented later in this MD&A.

Industry Trends and Economics

We have identified the following recent trends and factors that have impacted and may continue to impact our results of operations and financial condition:

As we expand across the United States and enter markets where consumers may not be as familiar with our brand, we seek to secure prime real estate locations for our stores to establish greater visibility with consumers in those markets. This strategy has resulted in higher lease costs, and we anticipate these increased costs will continue into the foreseeable future. Our financial results for the three and nine months ended June 30, 2019 reflect the effects of these factors, and we anticipate future periods will be similarly impacted.

Our performance is also impacted by trends regarding natural and organic products, dietary supplements and at-home meal preparation. Consumer preferences towards dietary supplements or natural and organic food products might shift as a result of, among other things, economic conditions, food safety perceptions, changing consumer choices and the cost of these products. A change in consumer preferences away from our offerings, including those resulting from reductions or changes in our offerings, would have a material adverse effect on our business. Additionally, negative publicity regarding the safety of dietary supplements, product recalls or new or upgraded regulatory standards may adversely affect demand for the products we sell and could result in lower consumer traffic, sales and results of operations.

Outlook

We believe there are several key factors that have contributed to our success and will enable us to increase our comparable store sales and continue to profitably expand. These factors include a loyal customer base, increasing basket size, growing consumer interest in nutrition and wellness, a differentiated shopping experience that focuses on customer service, nutrition education and a shopper friendly retail environment, and our focus on high quality, affordable natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements.

We plan for the foreseeable future to continue opening new stores and entering new markets. The rate of new store growth will depend on economic and business conditions and other factors. We continue to enhance our infrastructure to enable us to support our growth. In addition, in recent years we believe we have enhanced customer loyalty and increased customer engagement by expanding our digital and social media presence and further developing the {N}power^® customer loyalty program. In September 2018, we launched a new website (www.naturalgrocers.com) which was designed to offer a more personalized and convenient online experience for our customers. The new website features more advanced ecommerce capabilities, enhanced product and recipe search interfaces and improved functionality with mobile and tablet devices.

We believe there are opportunities for us to continue to expand our store base and increase profitability and comparable store sales. However, future sales growth, including comparable store sales, and our profitability could vary due to increasing competitive conditions in the natural and organic grocery and dietary supplement industry and regional and general economic conditions. As we continue to expand our store base, we believe there are opportunities for increased leverage in costs, such as administrative expenses, as well as increased economies of scale in sourcing products. However, due to our commitment to providing high-quality products at affordable prices and increased competition, such sourcing economies and efficiencies at our bulk food repackaging facility and distribution center may not be reflected in our gross margin in the near term. In addition, our ability to leverage costs may be limited due to the fixed nature of our rent obligations and related occupancy expenses.

Our operating results may be affected by the above-described factors as well as a variety of other internal and external factors and trends described more fully in Item 1A - “Risk Factors” in our Form 10-K and Part II, Item 1A – “Risk Factors” in this Form 10-Q.

Key Financial Metrics in Our Business

In assessing our performance, we consider a variety of performance and financial measures. The key measures are as follows:

Net sales

Our net sales are comprised of gross sales net of discounts, in-house coupons and returns and allowances. In comparing net sales between periods, we monitor the following:

Cost of goods sold and occupancy costs

Our cost of goods sold and occupancy costs include the cost of inventory sold during the period (net of discounts and allowances), shipping and handling costs, distribution and supply chain costs (including the costs of our bulk food repackaging facility), buying costs, shrink expense and store occupancy costs. Store occupancy costs include rent, common area maintenance and real estate taxes. Depreciation expense included in cost of goods sold relates to depreciation of assets directly used at our bulk food repackaging facility. The components of our cost of goods sold and occupancy costs may not be identical to those of our competitors, and as a result, our cost of goods sold and occupancy costs data included in this Form 10-Q may not be identical to those of our competitors and may not be comparable to similar data made available by our competitors. Occupancy costs as a percentage of sales typically decrease as new stores mature and increase sales. Rent payments for leases classified as capital and financing lease obligations are not recorded in cost of goods sold and occupancy costs. Rather, these rent payments are recognized as a reduction of the related obligations and as interest expense. Additionally, depreciation expense related to the capitalized asset is recorded in store expenses.

Gross profit and gross margin

Gross profit is equal to our net sales less our cost of goods sold and occupancy costs. Gross margin is gross profit as a percentage of net sales. Gross margin is impacted by changes in retail prices, product costs, occupancy costs and the mix of products sold, as well as the rate at which we open new stores.

Store expenses

Store expenses consist of store-level expenses, such as salary and benefits, share-based compensation, supplies, utilities, depreciation, advertising, bank credit card charges and other related costs associated with operations and purchasing support. Depreciation expense included in store expenses relates to depreciation for assets directly used at the stores, including depreciation on capitalized real estate leases, land improvements, leasehold improvements, fixtures and equipment and computer hardware and software. Additionally, store expenses include any gain or loss recorded on the disposal of fixed assets, primarily related to store relocations. The majority of store expenses consist of labor-related expenses, which we closely manage and which trend closely with sales. Labor-related expenses as a percentage of sales tend to be higher at new stores compared to comparable stores, as new stores require a minimum level of staffing in order to maintain adequate levels of customer service combined with lower sales. As new stores increase their sales, labor-related expenses as a percentage of sales typically decrease.

Administrative expenses

Administrative expenses consist of home office-related expenses, such as salary and benefits, share-based compensation, office supplies, hardware and software expenses, depreciation and amortization expense, occupancy costs (including rent, common area maintenance, real estate taxes and utilities), professional services expenses, expenses associated with being a public company, and other general and administrative expenses. Depreciation expense included in administrative expenses relates to depreciation for assets directly used at the home office including depreciation on land improvements, leasehold improvements, fixtures and equipment and computer hardware and software.

Pre-opening and relocation expenses

Pre-opening and relocation expenses may include rent expense, salaries, advertising, supplies and other miscellaneous costs incurred prior to the store opening. Rent expense is generally incurred from one to four months prior to a store’s opening date for store leases classified as operating. For store leases classified as capital or financing leases, no pre-opening rent expense is recognized. Other pre-opening and relocation expenses are generally incurred in the 60 days prior to the store opening. Certain advertising and promotional costs associated with opening a new store may be incurred both before and after the store opens. All pre-opening and relocation costs are expensed as incurred.

Interest expense, net

Interest expense consists of the interest associated with capital and financing lease obligations, net of capitalized interest, and our Credit Facility.

Results of Operations

The following table presents key components of our results of operations expressed as a percentage of net sales for the periods presented:

Three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2018

The following table summarizes our results of operations and other operating data for the periods presented, dollars in thousands:

Net sales

Net sales increased $11.3 million, or 5.3%, to $224.4 million for the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $213.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2018, primarily due to a $5.1 million increase in comparable store sales and a $6.9 million increase in new store sales, partially offset by a $0.6 million decrease in sales from one store that closed during the first quarter of fiscal 2019. Daily average comparable store sales increased 2.4% for the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2018. The daily average comparable store sales increase resulted from a 3.0% increase in daily average transaction size, partially offset by a 0.6% decrease in average transaction count. Comparable store average transaction size was $35.90 for the three months ended June 30, 2019. Daily average mature store sales increased 1.7% for the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2018. The increase in comparable store sales during the three months ended June 30, 2019 was primarily driven by several marketing initiatives, promotional pricing campaigns and increased membership in and usage of the {N}power customer loyalty program. In addition, we believe the increase in comparable store sales during the three months ended June 30, 2019 reflected enhanced focus on leadership, training and improved operating processes in our stores.

Gross profit

Gross profit increased $1.6 million, or 2.8%, to $58.4 million for the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $56.8 million for the three months ended June 30, 2018, primarily driven by an increase in the number of comparable stores. Gross margin decreased to 26.0% for the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to 26.7% for the three months ended June 30, 2018. The decrease in gross margin for the three months ended June 30, 2019 was driven by a decrease in product margins due to a shift in sales mix to lower margin products and an increase in occupancy expenses as a percentage of sales.

We had 22 and 20 store leases that were classified as capital and financing lease obligations for the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively. If these leases had qualified as operating leases, the straight-line rent expense would have been included in occupancy costs, and our costs of goods sold and occupancy costs as a percentage of sales during the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018 would have been approximately 65 and 55 basis points higher, respectively, than as reported for each period.

Store expenses

Store expenses increased $1.4 million, or 3.0%, to $48.4 million for the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $47.0 million for the three months ended June 30, 2018. Store expenses as a percentage of sales were 21.6% and 22.1% for the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively. The decrease in store expenses as a percentage of sales was primarily due to a decrease in labor-related expenses and depreciation, both as a percentage of sales.

Administrative expenses

Administrative expenses increased $0.3 million, or 5.7%, to $6.0 million for the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $5.6 million for the three months ended June 30, 2018. Administrative expenses as a percentage of sales were 2.7% and 2.6% for the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

Pre-opening and relocation expenses

Pre-opening and relocation expenses decreased $0.2 million, or 51.9%, to $0.2 million for the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $0.4 million for the three months ended June 30, 2018, due to the impact of the number and timing of new store openings and relocations. We opened no new stores and relocated two stores during the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to opening two new stores and relocating one store during the three months ended June 30, 2018. Pre-opening and relocation expenses as a percentage of sales were 0.1% and 0.2% for the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

Interest expense

Interest expense, net of capitalized interest, increased $0.1 million, or 7.4%, for the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2018. The increase in interest expense is primarily due to an increase in the number of capital leases during the three months ended June 30, 2019. If the capital and financing lease obligations had qualified as operating leases, interest expense as a percentage of sales would have been approximately 50 and 45 basis points lower than as reported for the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

Income taxes

Income tax expense remained unchanged at $0.6 million for the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018. The Company’s effective income tax rate for the three months ended June 30, 2019 was approximately 22.5% compared to 23.1% for the three months ended June 30, 2018. The decrease in the effective income tax rate for the three months ended June 30, 2019 is primarily due to the decrease in the federal corporate tax rate as a result of the Tax Reform Act.

Net income

Net income was $2.0 million, or $0.09 diluted earnings per share, for each of the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018.

Nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the nine months ended June 30, 2018

The following table summarizes our results of operations and other operating data for the periods presented, dollars in thousands:

Net sales

Net sales increased $44.9 million, or 7.1%, to $676.4 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $631.5 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2018, primarily due to a $22.4 million increase in comparable store sales and a $24.3 million increase in new store sales, partially offset by a $1.8 million decrease in sales from one store that closed during the first quarter of fiscal 2019. Daily average comparable store sales increased 3.6% for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the nine months ended June 30, 2018. The daily average comparable store sales increase resulted from a 3.2% increase in average transaction size and a 0.3% increase in daily average transaction count. Comparable store average transaction size was $36.42 for the nine months ended June 30, 2019. Daily average mature store sales increased 2.4% for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the nine months ended June 30, 2018. The increase in comparable store sales during the nine months ended June 30, 2019 was primarily driven by several marketing initiatives, promotional pricing campaigns and increased membership in and usage of the {N}power customer loyalty program. In addition, we believe the increase in comparable store sales during the nine months ended June 30, 2019 reflected enhanced focus on leadership, training and improved operating processes in our stores.

Gross profit

Gross profit increased $11.5 million, or 6.8%, to $179.8 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $168.3 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2018, primarily driven by an increase in the number of comparable stores. Gross margin was 26.6% for each of the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018. Gross margin during the nine months ended June 30, 2019 reflected slightly lower product margins due to a shift in sales mix to lower margin products, offset by a decrease in occupancy expense as a percentage of sales.

We had 22 and 20 store leases that were classified as capital and financing lease obligations for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively. If these leases had qualified as operating leases, the straight-line rent expense would have been included in occupancy costs, and our costs of goods sold and occupancy costs as a percentage of sales during the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018 would have been approximately 60 and 55 basis points higher, respectively, than as reported for each period.

Store expenses

Store expenses increased $9.1 million, or 6.5%, to $147.7 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $138.6 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2018. Store expenses as a percentage of sales were 21.8% and 22.0% for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively. The decrease in store expenses as a percentage of sales was primarily due to a decrease in labor-related expenses and depreciation, both as a percentage of sales.

Administrative expenses

Administrative expenses increased $0.7 million, or 4.2%, to $17.0 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $16.3 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2018. Administrative expenses as a percentage of sales were 2.5% and 2.6% the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

Pre-opening and relocation expenses

Pre-opening and relocation expenses decreased $0.6 million, or 38.1%, to $1.0 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $1.7 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2018, due to the impact of the number and timing of new store openings and relocations. We opened five new stores and relocated four stores during the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to opening seven new stores and relocating two stores during the nine months ended June 30, 2018. Pre-opening and relocation expenses as a percentage of sales were 0.2% and 0.3% for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

Interest expense

Interest expense, net of capitalized interest, increased $0.4 million, or 12.1%, for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the nine months ended June 30, 2018. The increase in interest expense is primarily due to an increase in the number of capital leases during the nine months ended June 30, 2019. If the capital and financing lease obligations had qualified as operating leases, interest expense as a percentage of sales would have been approximately 50 and 45 basis points lower than as reported for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

Income taxes

Income tax expense increased $4.5 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 to $2.1 million compared to a $2.4 million benefit for the nine months ended June 30, 2018. Income taxes for the nine months ended June 30, 2018 reflected the favorable impact of a $4.3 million non-cash remeasurement of our deferred tax assets and liabilities as a result of the enactment of the Tax Reform Act. The Company’s effective income tax rate for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 was approximately 21.0%. Exclusive of the adjustment to deferred income tax assets and liabilities, the Company’s effective income tax rate for the nine months ended June 30, 2018 was approximately 24.0%. The decrease in the effective income tax rate for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 is primarily due to the decrease in the federal corporate tax rate as a result of the Tax Reform Act.

Net income

Net income was $8.1 million, or $0.36 diluted earnings per share, for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $10.6 million, or $0.47 diluted earnings per share, for the nine months ended June 30, 2018. Excluding the favorable impact of the remeasurement of our deferred tax assets and liabilities as a result of the enactment of the Tax Reform Act, net income for the nine months ended June 30, 2018 was $6.2 million, or $0.28 diluted earnings per share.

Non-GAAP financial measures 

EBITDA

EBITDA is not a measure of financial performance under GAAP. We define EBITDA as net income before interest expense, provision for income taxes and depreciation and amortization. The following table reconciles net income to EBITDA for the periods presented, dollars in thousands:

EBITDA decreased 0.5% to $11.0 million in the three months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $11.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2018. EBITDA increased 5.9% to $35.8 million in the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $33.8 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2018. EBITDA as a percentage of sales was 4.9% and 5.2% in the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively. EBITDA as a percentage of sales was 5.3% for each of the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018. Stores with leases that are classified as capital and financing lease obligations, rather than being reflected as operating leases, increased EBITDA as a percentage of sales by approximately 65 and 55 basis points for the three months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively, and by approximately 60 and 55 basis points for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively, due to the impact on cost of goods sold and occupancy costs as discussed above, as well as occupancy costs that would have been included in pre-opening expenses prior to the stores’ opening dates if these leases had been accounted for as operating leases.

Management believes some investors’ understanding of our performance is enhanced by including EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure. We believe EBITDA provides additional information about: (i) our operating performance, because it assists us in comparing the operating performance of our stores on a consistent basis, as it removes the impact of non-cash depreciation and amortization expense as well as items not directly resulting from our core operations such as interest expense and income taxes and (ii) our performance and the effectiveness of our operational strategies. Additionally, EBITDA is a component of a measure in our financial covenants under our Credit Facility.

Furthermore, management believes some investors use EBITDA as a supplemental measure to evaluate the overall operating performance of companies in our industry. Management believes some investors’ understanding of our performance is enhanced by including this non-GAAP financial measure as a reasonable basis for comparing our ongoing results of operations. By providing this non-GAAP financial measure, together with a reconciliation from net income, we believe we are enhancing analysts’ and investors’ understanding of our business and our results of operations, as well as assisting analysts and investors in evaluating how well we are executing our strategic initiatives.

Our competitors may define EBITDA differently, and as a result, our measure of EBITDA may not be directly comparable to those of other companies. Items excluded from EBITDA are significant components in understanding and assessing financial performance. EBITDA is a supplemental measure of operating performance that does not represent, and should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to, or substitute for, net income or other financial statement data presented in the consolidated financial statements as indicators of financial performance. EBITDA has limitations as an analytical tool, and should not be considered in isolation, or as an alternative to, or as a substitute for, analysis of our results as reported under GAAP. Some of the limitations are:

Due to these limitations, EBITDA should not be considered as a measure of discretionary cash available to us to invest in the growth of our business. We compensate for these limitations by relying primarily on our GAAP results and using EBITDA as supplemental information.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Our ongoing primary sources of liquidity are cash generated from operations, current balances of cash and cash equivalents and borrowings under the Credit Facility. Our primary uses of cash are for purchases of inventory, operating expenses, capital expenditures predominantly in connection with opening, relocating and remodeling stores, interest and principal payments for outstanding indebtedness and corporate taxes. As of June 30, 2019, we had $11.7 million in cash and cash equivalents, as well as $38.9 million available for borrowing under our Credit Facility.

On May 4, 2016, our Board authorized a two-year share repurchase program pursuant to which the Company may expend up to $10.0 million to repurchase shares of the Company’s common stock. On May 2, 2018, our Board authorized a two-year extension of the Company’s share repurchase program. As a result of such extension, the share repurchase program will terminate on May 4, 2020. We did not repurchase any shares during the nine months ended June 30, 2019. Between July 1, 2019 and July 29, 2019 (the latest practicable date for making the determination), we did not repurchase any additional shares of our common stock. The dollar value of the shares of common stock that may yet be purchased under the share repurchase program is approximately $8.3 million. We expect funding for any future share repurchases will come from operating cash flow, excess cash and/or borrowings under our Credit Facility. The timing and amount of shares repurchased will be dictated by our capital needs and stock market conditions.

We plan to continue to open new stores, which may require us to borrow additional amounts under the Credit Facility. We plan to spend approximately $5.0 million to $8.0 million on capital expenditures during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2019 in connection with two new store openings and one store relocation. We believe that cash and cash equivalents, together with the cash generated from operations and the borrowing availability under our Credit Facility, will be sufficient to meet our working capital needs and planned capital expenditures, including capital expenditures related to new store needs for at least the next twelve months. Our working capital position benefits from the fact that we generally collect cash from sales to customers the same day or, in the case of credit or debit card transactions, within days from the related sale.

Typically, our new stores require an upfront capital investment of approximately $2.2 million per store consisting of capital expenditures of approximately $1.6 million, net of tenant allowances, initial inventory of approximately $0.3 million, net of payables, and pre-opening expenses of approximately $0.3 million.

Following is a summary of our operating, investing and financing activities for the periods presented, dollars in thousands:

Operating Activities

Net cash provided by operating activities consists primarily of net income adjusted for non-cash items, including depreciation and amortization and changes in deferred taxes, and the effect of working capital changes. Cash provided by operating activities decreased $2.0 million, or 6.6%, to $28.3 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $30.3 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2018. The decrease in cash provided by operating activities was primarily due to a decrease in cash provided by working capital and to a lesser extent, a decrease in net income adjusted for non-cash items. Our working capital requirements for inventory will likely increase as we continue to open new stores.   

Investing Activities

Net cash used in investing activities increased $5.5 million, or 33.1%, to $22.0 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 compared to $16.5 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2018. This increase was primarily due to a $4.2 million increase in cash paid for property and equipment, which was primarily due to the timing of payments related to new store openings and relocations, and to a $2.0 million increase in cash paid for internal use software.

Financing Activities

Cash used in financing activities consists primarily of borrowings and repayments under our Credit Facility and payments of capital and financing lease obligations. Cash used in financing activities was $4.0 million and $13.1 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

Credit Facility

The amount available for borrowing under the Credit Facility is $50.0 million, including a $5.0 million sublimit for standby letters of credit. The operating company is the borrower under the Credit Facility and its obligations thereunder are guaranteed by the holding company and VC2. The Credit Facility is secured by a lien on substantially all of the Company’s assets. The Company has the right to borrow, prepay and re-borrow amounts under the Credit Facility at any time prior to the maturity date. The Credit Facility matures on January 31, 2021.

For floating rate borrowings under the Credit Facility, interest is determined by the lender’s administrative agent based on the most recent compliance certificate of the operating company and stated at the base rate less the lender spread, which is based upon certain financial measures. For fixed rate borrowings under the Credit Facility, interest is determined by quoted LIBOR rates for the interest period plus the lender spread, which is based upon certain financial measures. The unused commitment fee is based upon certain financial measures.

The Credit Facility requires compliance with certain customary operational and financial covenants, including a leverage ratio. The Credit Facility also contains certain other customary limitations on the Company’s ability to incur additional debt, guarantee other obligations, grant liens on assets and make investments or acquisitions, among other limitations. Additionally, the Credit Facility prohibits the payment of cash dividends, except that so long as no default exists or would arise as a result thereof, the operating company may pay cash dividends to the holding company for various audit, accounting, tax, securities, indemnification, reimbursement, insurance and other reasonable expenses incurred in the ordinary course of business, and for repurchases of shares of common stock in an amount not to exceed $10.0 million.

We had $10.1 million and $13.2 million outstanding under the Credit Facility as of June 30, 2019 and September 30, 2018, respectively. As of each of June 30, 2019 and September 30, 2018, we had undrawn, issued and outstanding letters of credit of $1.0 million, which were reserved against the amount available for borrowing under the terms of the Credit Facility. We had $38.9 million and $35.8 million available for borrowing under the Credit Facility as of June 30, 2019 and September 30, 2018, respectively.

As of June 30, 2019 and September 30, 2018, the Company was in compliance with the debt covenants under the Credit Facility.

Share Repurchases

Certain information about the Company's share repurchases is set forth under the heading "Share Repurchases" in Note 6 of Notes to Unaudited Interim Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part I, Item 1 of this Form 10- Q.

Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements 

As of June 30, 2019, our off-balance sheet arrangements consisted of operating leases and the undrawn portion of our Credit Facility. The majority of our stores and facilities are leased, with varying terms and renewal options. As of June 30, 2019, we owned seven buildings, in which six of our stores are located; of those buildings, five are located on land that is leased pursuant to a ground lease. As of June 30, 2019, 22 store leases were classified as capital and financing lease obligations, and the remaining leases were classified as operating leases in our consolidated financial statements. We have no other off-balance sheet arrangements that have had, or are reasonably likely to have, a material effect on our consolidated financial statements or financial condition.

Recent Accounting Pronouncements

See Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements included in this Form 10-Q.

Critical Accounting Policies

The preparation of our consolidated financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues, expenses and related disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities. Actual amounts may differ from these estimates. We base our estimates on historical experience and on various other assumptions and factors that we believe to be reasonable under the circumstances. We evaluate our accounting policies and resulting estimates on an ongoing basis to make adjustments we consider appropriate under the facts and circumstances. 

Critical accounting policies that affect our more significant judgments and estimates used in the preparation of our financial statements include accounting for income taxes, accounting for impairment of long-lived assets and accounting for leases, which are discussed in more detail under the caption “Critical Accounting Policies” under Item 7 – “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” in our Form 10-K.

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

To a limited extent, we are exposed to interest rate changes with respect to our Credit Facility. We do not use financial instruments for trading or other speculative purposes. There have been no material changes regarding our market risk position from the information provided under Item 7A – “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” in our Form 10-K.

Item 4. Controls and Procedures

Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures

Our management, with the participation of our principal executive officers and principal financial and accounting officer, evaluated the effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures pursuant to Rule 13a-15 under the Exchange Act, as of the end of the period covered by this Form 10-Q. In designing and evaluating the disclosure controls and procedures, management recognized that any controls and procedures, no matter how well designed and operated, can provide only reasonable assurance of achieving the desired control objectives. In addition, the design of disclosure controls and procedures must reflect the fact that there are resource constraints and that management is required to apply its judgment in evaluating the benefits of possible controls and procedures relative to their costs.

Based on that evaluation, our principal executive officers and principal financial and accounting officer concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of June 30, 2019.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting

There were no changes in our internal control over financial reporting during the most recent fiscal quarter that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

PART II. Other Information

Item 1. Legal Proceedings

We periodically are involved in various legal proceedings, including discrimination and other employment-related claims, customer personal injury claims, investigations and other proceedings arising in the ordinary course of business. When the potential liability from a matter can be estimated and the loss is considered probable, we record the estimated loss. Due to uncertainties related to the resolution of lawsuits, investigations and claims, the ultimate outcome may differ from our estimates. Although we cannot predict with certainty the ultimate resolution of any lawsuits, investigations and claims asserted against us, we do not believe any currently pending legal proceeding to which we are a party will have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, financial condition, cash flows or results of operations.

Item 1A. Risk Factors

The risk factor below updates those disclosed in Part I, “Item 1A-Risk Factors,” of our Form 10-K.

Executive, legislative or regulatory action that restricts or closes access to the United States market from Mexico or Canada could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Certain of the produce and other products that we sell at our stores are purchased, or contain ingredients sourced, from suppliers in Mexico and Canada. Since President Trump took office, tensions with Mexico and Canada over trade, immigration and other issues have increased. Such tensions could lead to executive, legislative, or regulatory action to restrict or close access to the United States market from Mexico or Canada. If action were taken to restrict or close access to the United States market from Mexico or Canada, the produce and other products that we source from those countries may no longer be available or may not be available at commercially attractive prices, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Item 5. Other Information

On July 31, 2019, the Company and Chalet, a related party, entered into an amendment to the lease (the Austin Lease) pursuant to which the Company leases one of its store locations in Austin, Texas (the Austin Property). Pursuant to the amendment to the Austin Lease: (i) effective August 1, 2019, fixed rent payable by the Company under the Austin Lease will decrease to zero; (ii) the Company will be required to continue paying all operating expenses under the Austin Lease through the remainder of its term; (iii) the Austin Lease will automatically terminate concurrently with the closing of any sale of the Austin Property; (iv) the Company will, within fifteen (15) days following the closing of any sale of the Austin Property, reimburse Chalet for any and all real estate taxes relating to the Austin Property that are paid by Chalet at such closing; and (v) all lease extension options under the Austin Lease have been eliminated.

Item 6. Exhibits

EXHIBIT INDEX

† The certifications attached as Exhibit 32.1 that accompany this Form 10-Q are not deemed filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are not to be incorporated by reference into any filing of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, whether made before or after the date of this Form 10-Q, irrespective of any general incorporation language contained in such filing.

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized on August 1, 2019.

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