SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INC - Quarter Report: 2017 September (Form 10-Q)

Large accelerated filer

Accelerated filer

Non-accelerated filer

Smaller reporting company

Emerging growth company

Table of Contents

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-Q

☒QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2017

☐TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

For the transition period from ______to ______

Commission File Number: 000-50070

SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Delaware		13-4181699
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)		(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

20 Custom House Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02110

(Address of principal executive offices including zip code)

(617) 951-0600

(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Not Applicable

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files). Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company, or an emerging growth company. See the definition of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company,” and “emerging growth company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. (Check one):

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act).

Yes ☐ No ☒

As of November 1, 2017 there were 15,219,974 shares of common stock with a par value of $0.01 per share outstanding.

Table of Contents

SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

		Page No.
Part I. Financial Information
Item 1.	Consolidated Financial Statements
	Consolidated Balance Sheets	3
	Consolidated Statements of Operations	4
	Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income	5
	Consolidated Statements of Changes in Shareholders’ Equity	6
	Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows	7
	Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements	8
Item 2.	Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations	24
Item 3.	Quantitative and Qualitative Information about Market Risk	43
Item 4.	Controls and Procedures	43
Part II. Other Information
Item 1	Legal Proceedings	45
Item 1A.	Risk Factors	45
Item 2.	Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds	45
Item 3.	Defaults upon Senior Securities	45
Item 4.	Mine Safety Disclosures	45
Item 5.	Other Information	45
Item 6.	Exhibits	45
EXHIBIT INDEX		46
SIGNATURE		47

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Balance Sheets

(Dollars in thousands, except share data)


	September 30,		December 31,
	2017		2016
	(Unaudited)
Assets
Investments:
Securities available for sale:
Fixed maturities, at fair value (amortized cost: $1,155,466 and $1,142,663)	$	1,177,631	$	1,154,269
Equity securities, at fair value (cost: $87,580 and $92,326)		105,987		105,095
Other invested assets		27,893		21,142
Total investments		1,311,511		1,280,506
Cash and cash equivalents		31,934		20,052
Accounts receivable, net of allowance for doubtful accounts		205,835		187,696
Receivable for securities sold		2,495		7,098
Accrued investment income		9,674		8,858
Taxes recoverable		3,849		—
Receivable from reinsurers related to paid loss and loss adjustment expenses		42,865		29,504
Receivable from reinsurers related to unpaid loss and loss adjustment expenses		92,942		83,724
Ceded unearned premiums		30,578		28,585
Deferred policy acquisition costs		76,458		70,996
Deferred income taxes		—		3,083
Equity and deposits in pools		30,934		24,675
Other assets		15,535		13,469
Total assets	$	1,854,610	$	1,758,246

Liabilities
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves	$	577,637	$	560,321
Unearned premium reserves		451,119		418,033
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities		51,290		66,805
Payable for securities purchased		14,860		5,564
Payable to reinsurers		29,013		13,502
Deferred income taxes		6,412		—
Taxes payable		—		1,110
Other liabilities		21,440		22,185
Total liabilities		1,151,771		1,087,520

Commitments and contingencies (Note 7)

Shareholders’ equity
Common stock: $0.01 par value; 30,000,000 shares authorized; 17,499,544 and 17,430,189 shares issued		175		174
Additional paid-in capital		188,576		184,549
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of taxes		26,371		15,843
Retained earnings		571,552		553,995
Treasury stock, at cost: 2,279,570 shares		(83,835)		(83,835)
Total shareholders’ equity		702,839		670,726
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	$	1,854,610	$	1,758,246

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Operations

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands, except per share data)


	Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016		2017		2016

Net earned premiums	$	195,524	$	190,712	$	578,059	$	563,759
Net investment income		9,503		8,967		28,313		28,235
Earnings from partnership investments		351		802		1,233		3,089
Net realized gains on investments		2,717		4,891		4,826		4,928
Net impairment losses on investments (a)		(256)		—		(256)		(429)
Finance and other service income		4,690		4,713		13,373		13,282
Total revenue		212,529		210,085		625,548		612,864

Losses and loss adjustment expenses		123,792		124,961		369,271		366,084
Underwriting, operating and related expenses		62,994		58,406		183,643		171,876
Interest expense		22		22		67		67
Total expenses		186,808		183,389		552,981		538,027

Income before income taxes		25,721		26,696		72,567		74,837
Income tax expense		7,767		8,099		21,489		22,205
Net income	$	17,954	$	18,597	$	51,078	$	52,632

Earnings per weighted average common share:
Basic	$	1.19	$	1.24	$	3.38	$	3.50
Diluted	$	1.18	$	1.23	$	3.36	$	3.48

Cash dividends paid per common share	$	0.80	$	0.70	$	2.20	$	2.10

Number of shares used in computing earnings per share:
Basic		15,021,189		14,960,516		15,007,221		14,941,732
Diluted		15,161,962		15,076,635		15,124,044		15,018,124

(a)

No portion of the other-than-temporary impairments recognized in the period indicated were included in Other Comprehensive Income.

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands)


	Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016		2017		2016
Net income	$	17,954	$	18,597	$	51,078	$	52,632

Other comprehensive income, net of tax:
Unrealized holding gains during the period, net of income tax expense of $1,985, $723, $7,358 and $11,657.		3,687		1,343		13,665		21,649
Reclassification adjustment for losses included in net income, net of income tax expense of ($951), ($1,712), ($1,689) and ($1,725).		(1,766)		(3,179)		(3,137)		(3,203)
Unrealized gains or (losses) on securities available for sale		1,921		(1,836)		10,528		18,446

Comprehensive income	$	19,875	$	16,761	$	61,606	$	71,078

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Changes in Shareholders’ Equity

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands)


					Accumulated
					Other
			Additional		Comprehensive						Total
	Common		Paid-in		Income,		Retained		Treasury		Shareholders’
	Stock		Capital		Net of Taxes		Earnings		Stock		Equity
Balance at December 31, 2015	$	174	$	179,896	$	16,464	$	531,800	$	(83,835)	$	644,499
Net income, January 1 to September 30, 2016								52,632				52,632
Unrealized gains on securities available for sale, net of deferred federal income taxes						18,446						18,446
Restricted share awards issued				280								280
Recognition of employee share-based compensation, net of deferred federal income taxes				2,970								2,970
Exercise of options, net of federal income taxes				251								251
Dividends paid and accrued								(31,775)				(31,775)
Balance at September 30, 2016	$	174	$	183,397	$	34,910	$	552,657	$	(83,835)	$	687,303


					Accumulated
					Other
			Additional		Comprehensive						Total
	Common		Paid-in		Income,		Retained		Treasury		Shareholders’
	Stock		Capital		Net of Taxes		Earnings		Stock		Equity
Balance at December 31, 2016	$	174	$	184,549	$	15,843	$	553,995	$	(83,835)	$	670,726
Net income, January 1 to September 30, 2017								51,078				51,078
Unrealized gains on securities available for sale, net of deferred federal income taxes						10,528						10,528
Restricted share awards issued		1		362								363
Recognition of employee share-based compensation, net of deferred federal income taxes				3,665								3,665
Dividends paid and accrued								(33,521)				(33,521)
Balance at September 30, 2017	$	175	$	188,576	$	26,371	$	571,552	$	(83,835)	$	702,839

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows

(Unaudited)

(Dollars in thousands)


	Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016
Cash flows from operating activities:
Net income	$	51,078	$	52,632
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
Investment amortization, net		5,069		4,537
Fixed Asset depreciation, net		3,591		3,286
Stock based compensation		4,027		3,151
Provision for deferred income taxes		3,826		577
Net realized (gains) on investments		(4,826)		(4,928)
Net impairment losses on investments		256		429
Earnings from partnership investments		(1,233)		(3,089)
Changes in assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable		(18,139)		(21,088)
Accrued investment income		(816)		(680)
Receivable from reinsurers		(22,579)		(6,013)
Ceded unearned premiums		(1,993)		(3,378)
Deferred policy acquisition costs		(5,462)		(6,162)
Taxes recoverable		(3,849)		15,497
Other assets		(7,254)		(3,998)
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves		17,316		(1,735)
Unearned premium reserves		33,086		37,771
Taxes payable		(1,110)		—
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities		(15,669)		1,033
Payable to reinsurers		15,511		18,846
Other liabilities		(745)		(10,877)
Net cash provided by operating activities		50,085		75,811

Cash flows from investing activities:
Fixed maturities purchased		(142,052)		(210,063)
Equity securities purchased		(20,650)		(18,370)
Other invested assets purchased		(5,681)		(3,525)
Proceeds from sales and paydowns of fixed maturities		114,040		77,514
Proceeds from maturities, redemptions, and calls of fixed maturities		24,638		77,995
Proceed from sales of equity securities		29,328		37,486
Proceeds from other invested assets redeemed		203		2,656
Fixed assets purchased		(4,662)		(3,245)
Net cash used for investing activities		(4,836)		(39,552)

Cash flows from financing activities:
Proceeds from stock options exercised		—		257
Excess tax expense from stock options exercised		—		(6)
Dividends paid to shareholders		(33,367)		(31,727)
Net cash used for financing activities		(33,367)		(31,476)

Net increase in cash and cash equivalents		11,882		4,783
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year		20,052		47,494
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period	$	31,934	$	52,277

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

1. Basis of Presentation

The consolidated financial statements have been prepared on the basis of accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”). The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting periods. Actual results could differ from these estimates.

The consolidated financial statements include Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries (the “Company”). The subsidiaries consist of Safety Insurance Company, Safety Indemnity Insurance Company, Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Company, Safety Asset Management Corporation (“SAMC”), and Safety Management Corporation, which is SAMC’s holding company. All intercompany transactions have been eliminated.

The financial information for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016 is unaudited; however, in the opinion of the Company, the information includes all adjustments, consisting only of normal recurring adjustments, necessary for a fair presentation of the financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows for the periods. The financial information as of December 31, 2016 is derived from the audited financial statements included in the Company's 2016 annual report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on February 24, 2017.

These unaudited interim consolidated financial statements may not be indicative of financial results for the full year and should be read in conjunction with the audited financial statements included in the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 24, 2017.

The Company is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance focused primarily on the Massachusetts market. The Company’s principal product line is automobile insurance. The Company operates through its insurance company subsidiaries, Safety Insurance Company, Safety Indemnity Insurance Company, and Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Company (together referred to as the “Insurance Subsidiaries”).

The Insurance Subsidiaries began writing private passenger automobile and homeowners insurance in New Hampshire during 2008, personal umbrella insurance in New Hampshire during 2009, and commercial automobile insurance in New Hampshire during 2011. The Insurance Subsidiaries began writing all of these lines of business in Maine during 2016.

2. Recent Accounting Pronouncements

In March 2017, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) issued Accounting Standards Update (“ASU”) 2017-08, Receivables – Nonrefundable Fees and Other Costs (Subtopic 310-20): Premium Amortization on Purchased Callable Debt Securities, which requires certain premiums on callable debt securities to be amortized to the earliest call date. The amortization period for callable debt securities purchased at a discount will not be impacted. For public business entities with calendar year ends, the amendments in ASU No. 2017-08 are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, including interim periods within those fiscal years. Early adoption is permitted, including adoption in an interim period. If early adopted in an interim period, any adjustments should be reflected as of the beginning of the fiscal year that includes the interim period. The Company is evaluating the impact of ASU 2017-08 on its financial position and results of operations. The extent of the impact will depend upon the nature and characteristics of the Company’s portfolio at the adoption date.

In December 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-19 - Technical Corrections and Improvements, which covers a wide range of Topics in the Accounting Standards Codification (ASC). The amendments in this Update represent

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

changes to clarify, correct errors, or make minor improvements to the ASC, making it easier to understand and apply by eliminating inconsistencies and providing clarifications. The amendments generally fall into one of the following categories: amendments related to differences between original guidance and the ASC, guidance clarification and reference corrections, simplification, or minor improvements. Most of the amendments in ASU 2016-19 do not require transition guidance and are effective upon issuance of ASU 2016-19. The impact of the adoption of ASU 2016-19 was not material to the Company’s financial position, results of operations, cash flows or disclosures.

In October 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-17 - Consolidation (Topic 810): Interests Held through Related Parties that are Under Common Control, which amends the consolidation guidance on how a reporting entity that is the single decision maker of a variable interest entity (“VIE”) should treat indirect interests in the entity held through related parties that are under common control with the reporting entity when determining whether it is the primary beneficiary of that VIE. The Update requires the reporting entity, in determining whether it satisfies the second characteristic of a primary beneficiary, to include its indirect variable interests in a VIE held through related parties that are under common control on a proportionate basis as opposed to in their entirety. The amendments in this Update will be applied retrospectively and are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2016, including interim periods within those fiscal years. The impact of the adoption of ASU 2016-17 was not material to the Company’s financial position, results of operations or cash flows.

In August 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-15, Statement of Cash Flows (Topic 230): Classification of Certain Cash Receipts and Cash Payments. ASU 2016-15 reduces diversity in practice in how certain transactions are classified in the statement of cash flows. The amendments in ASU 2016-15 provide guidance on specific cash flow issues including debt prepayment or debt extinguishment costs, settlement of zero-coupon debt instruments or other debt instruments with coupon interest rates that are insignificant in relation to the effective interest rate of the borrowing, contingent consideration payments made after a business combination, proceeds from the settlement of insurance claims, proceeds from the settlement of corporate-owned life insurance policies, and distributions received from equity method investees. ASU 2016-15 is effective for annual and interim periods beginning after December 15, 2017. The Company does not expect the adoption of ASU 2016-15 to have a material impact to its Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows.

In June 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments – Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Statements, which amends the guidance for the impairment of financial instruments and is expected to result in more timely recognition of impairment losses. The update introduces an impairment model referred to as the current expected credit loss (“CECL”) model. The impairment model is based on expected losses rather than incurred losses. Under the new guidance, an entity recognizes as an allowance its estimate of expected credit losses. The ASU is also intended to reduce the complexity of the current guidance by decreasing the number of credit impairment models that entities use to account for debt instruments. For public business entities that are SEC filers, the amendments in ASU No. 2016-13 are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2019, including interim periods within those fiscal years. Entities may adopt the amendments in this update earlier as of the fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, including interim periods within those fiscal years. The Company is evaluating the impact of ASU 2016-13 on its financial position and results of operations with regards to potential credit losses on its Available For Sale investment portfolio. The extent of the increase of credit losses is under evaluation, but will depend upon the nature and characteristics of the Company’s portfolio at the adoption date, and the macroeconomic conditions and forecasts at the date.

In March 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-09, Compensation-Stock Compensation (Topic 718): Improvements to Employee Share-Based Payment Accounting. This ASC update requires all excess tax benefits and tax deficiencies to be recognized as income tax expense or benefit in the income statement, and be treated as discrete items in the reporting period in which they occur. Additionally, excess tax benefits will be classified with other income tax cash flows as an operating activity and cash paid by an employer when directly withholding shares for tax withholding purposes will be classified as a financing activity. Awards that are used to settle employee tax liabilities will be allowed to qualify for equity classification for withholdings up to the maximum statutory tax rates in applicable jurisdictions.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

Regarding forfeitures, a company can make an entity-wide accounting policy election to either continue estimating the number of awards that are expected to vest or account for forfeitures when they occur. The updated guidance is effective for annual periods beginning after December 15, 2016 and interim periods within those annual periods. The impact of the adoption of ASU 2016-09 was not material to the Company’s financial position, results of operations or cash flows.

In February 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-02, Leases. ASU 2016-02 establishes a right-of-use (“ROU”) model that requires a lessee to record a ROU asset and a lease liability on the balance sheet for all leases with terms longer than 12 months. Leases will be classified as either finance or operating, with classification affecting the pattern of expense recognition in the income statement. The new standard is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, including interim periods within those fiscal years. A modified retrospective transition approach is required for lessees for capital and operating leases existing at, or entered into after, the beginning of the earliest comparative period presented in the financial statements, with certain practical expedients available. The Company is currently evaluating the impact of ASU 2016-02 by reviewing its existing lease contracts. The Company expects a gross-up of its Consolidated Balance Sheets as a result of recognizing lease liabilities and right of use assets. The extent of such gross-up is under evaluation. The Company does not expect material changes to the Consolidated Statements of Operations.

In January 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-01, Financial Instruments-Overall (Subtopic 825-10), Recognition and Measurement of Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities. The amendments in this ASC update address certain aspects of recognition, measurement, presentation and disclosure of financial instruments. ASU 2016-01: (1) requires equity investments (except those accounted for under the equity method or those that result in the consolidation of the investee) to be measured at fair value with changes in the fair value recognized in net income; (2) simplifies the impairment assessment of equity investments without readily determinable fair values by requiring a qualitative assessment to identify impairment; (3) requires the use of the exit price notion when measuring the fair value of financial instruments for disclosure purposes; and (4) requires separate presentation of financial assets and financial liabilities by measurement category and form of financial asset on the balance sheet or the notes to the financial statements. These amendments are effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2017, including interim periods within those fiscal years. The extent of the impact will depend upon the nature and characteristics of the Company’s portfolio at the adoption date.

In May 2015, the FASB issued ASU 2015-09, Disclosures about Short-Duration Contracts. ASU 2015-09 requires companies that issue short duration contracts to disclose additional information, including: (i) incurred and paid claims development tables; (ii) frequency and severity of claims; and (iii) information about material changes in judgments made in calculating the liability for unpaid claim adjustment expenses, including reasons for the change and the effects on the financial statements. ASU 2015-09 is effective for annual periods beginning after December 15, 2015, and interim periods within annual periods beginning after December 15, 2016. The amendments in ASU 2015-09 should be applied retrospectively by providing comparative disclosures for each period presented, except for those requirements that apply only to the current period. The adoption of ASU 2015-09 is disclosure only and has been reflected in the Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense footnote.

In August 2014, the FASB issued ASU 2014-15, Presentation of Financial Statements – Going Concern (Subtopic 205-40): Disclosures of Uncertainties about an Entity’s Ability as a Going Concern. ASU 2014-15 provides guidance on determining when and how to disclose going concern uncertainties in the financial statements, and requires management to perform interim and annual assessments of an entity’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year of the date the financial statements are issued. ASU 2014-15 is effective for annual periods ending after December 15, 2016 and interim periods thereafter. Management has assessed and concluded that there were no conditions or events, considered in the aggregate, that raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date the financial statements were issued.

In May 2014, the FASB issued as final, ASU 2014-09, Revenue from Contracts with Customers (Topic 606), which supersedes virtually all existing revenue recognition guidance under GAAP. The update's core principle is that an

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

entity should recognize revenue to depict the transfer of promised goods or services to customers in an amount that reflects the consideration to which the entity expects to be entitled in exchange for those goods or services. The update is effective for interim and annual reporting periods in fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2017 and allows early adoption. ASU 2014-09 allows for the use of either the retrospective or modified retrospective approach of adoption. The Company does not expect the modified retrospective adoption of ASU 2014-09 to have a material impact on its financial position, results of operations, cash flows, or disclosures.

3. Earnings per Weighted Average Common Share

Basic earnings per weighted average common share (“EPS”) are calculated by dividing net income by the weighted average number of basic common shares outstanding during the period. Diluted earnings per share amounts are based on the weighted average number of common shares including non-vested performance stock grants and the net effect of potentially dilutive common stock options.

The following table sets forth the computation of basic and diluted EPS for the periods indicated.


	Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016		2017		2016
Earnings attributable to common shareholders - basic and diluted:
Net income from continuing operations	$	17,954	$	18,597	$	51,078	$	52,632
Allocation of income for participating shares		(111)		(119)		(323)		(363)
Net income from continuing operations attributed to common shareholders	$	17,843	$	18,478	$	50,755	$	52,269
Earnings per share denominator - basic and diluted
Total weighted average common shares outstanding, including participating shares		15,114,355		15,056,646		15,102,608		15,045,375
Less: weighted average participating shares		(93,166)		(96,130)		(95,387)		(103,643)
Basic earnings per share denominator		15,021,189		14,960,516		15,007,221		14,941,732
Common equivalent shares- stock options		—		—		—		179
Common equivalent shares- non-vested performance stock grants		140,773		116,119		116,823		76,213
Diluted earnings per share denominator		15,161,962		15,076,635		15,124,044		15,018,124

Basic earnings per share	$	1.19	$	1.24	$	3.38	$	3.50
Diluted earnings per share	$	1.18	$	1.23	$	3.36	$	3.48

Undistributed earnings attributable to common shareholders - basic and diluted:
Net income from continuing operations attributable to common shareholders -Basic	$	1.19	$	1.24	$	3.38	$	3.50
Dividends declared		(0.80)		(0.70)		(2.20)		(2.10)
Undistributed earnings	$	0.39	$	0.54	$	1.18	$	1.40

Net income from continuing operations attributable to common shareholders -Diluted	$	1.18	$	1.23	$	3.36	$	3.48
Dividends declared		(0.80)		(0.70)		(2.20)		(2.10)
Undistributed earnings	$	0.38	$	0.53	$	1.16	$	1.38

Diluted EPS excludes stock options with exercise prices and exercise tax benefits greater than the average market price of the Company’s common stock during the period because their inclusion would be anti-dilutive. There were no anti-dilutive shares related to non vested performance stock grants for the three months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016. There were no anti-dilutive shares related to non vested performance stock grants for the nine months

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

ended September 30, 2017. There were 36 anti-dilutive shares related to non vested performance stock grants for the nine months ended September 30, 2016.

4. Share-Based Compensation

Management Omnibus Incentive Plan

Long-term incentive compensation is provided under the Company’s 2002 Management Omnibus Incentive Plan (“the Incentive Plan”) which provides for a variety of share-based compensation awards, including nonqualified stock options, incentive stock options, stock appreciation rights and restricted stock (“RS”) awards.

The maximum number of shares of common stock with respect to which awards may be granted is 2,500,000. The Incentive Plan was amended in March of 2013 to remove "share recycling" plan provisions. Hence, shares of stock covered by an award under the Incentive Plan that are forfeited are no longer available for issuance in connection with 2013 and future grants of awards. At September 30, 2017, there were 209,087 shares available for future grant. The Board of Directors and the Compensation Committee intend to issue more awards under the Incentive Plan in the future.

Accounting and Reporting for Stock-Based Awards

Accounting Standards Codification (“ASC”) 718, Compensation —Stock Compensation requires the Company to measure and recognize the cost of employee services received in exchange for an award of equity instruments. Under the provisions of ASC 718, share-based compensation cost is measured at the grant date, based on the fair value of the award, and is recognized as an expense over the requisite service period (generally the vesting period of the equity grant).

As of September 30, 2017, all stock option awards have expired and all compensation expense related to stock option awards has been recognized. The total intrinsic value of options exercised during the nine months ended September 30, 2016 was $85. Cash received from stock options exercised was $257 for the nine months ended September 30, 2016.

Restricted Stock

Service-based restricted stock awarded in the form of unvested shares is recorded at the market value of the Company’s common stock on the grant date and amortized ratably as compensation expense over the requisite service period. Service-based restricted stock awards generally vest over a three-year period and vest 30% on the first and second anniversaries of the grant date and 40% on the third anniversary of the grant date, except for non-executive employees’ restricted stock awards which vest ratably over a five-year service period and independent directors’ stock awards which vest immediately. Our independent directors are subject to stock ownership guidelines, which require them to have a value four times their annual cash retainer.

In addition to service-based awards, the Company grants performance-based restricted shares to certain employees. These performance shares cliff vest after a three-year performance period provided certain performance measures are attained. A portion of these awards, which contain a market condition, vest according to the level of total shareholder return achieved by the Company compared to its property-casualty insurance peers over a three-year period. The remainder, which contain a performance condition, vest according to the level of Company’s combined ratio results compared to a target based on its property-casualty insurance peers.

Actual payouts can range from 0% to 200% of target shares awarded depending upon the level of achievement of the respective market and performance conditions during a three calendar-year performance period. Compensation

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

expense for share awards with a performance condition is based on the probable number of awards expected to vest using the performance level most likely to be achieved at the end of the performance period.

Performance-based awards with market conditions are accounted for and measured differently from awards that have a performance or service condition. The effect of a market condition is reflected in the award’s fair value on the grant date. That fair value is recognized as compensation cost over the requisite service period regardless of whether the market-based performance objective has been satisfied.

All of the Company’s restricted stock awards are issued as incentive compensation and are equity classified.

The following table summarizes restricted stock activity under the Incentive Plan during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 assuming a target payout for the 2017 performance-based shares.


	Shares	Weighted		Performance-based	Weighted
	Under	Average		Shares Under	Average
	Restriction	Fair Value		Restriction	Fair Value
Outstanding at beginning of year	95,493	$	55.86	94,610	$	57.60
Granted	40,226		73.42	29,829		74.96
Vested and unrestricted	(42,453)		56.56	(18,259)		53.99
Forfeited	(180)		63.87	(520)		53.99
Outstanding at end of period	93,086	$	63.13	105,660	$	62.75

As of September 30, 2017, there was $7,726 of unrecognized compensation expense related to non-vested restricted stock awards that is expected to be recognized over a weighted average period of 1.7 years. The total fair value of the shares that were vested and unrestricted during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016 was $3,387 and $3,732, respectively. For the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016, the Company recorded compensation expense related to restricted stock of $2,618 and $2,048, net of income tax benefits of $1,409 and $1,103, respectively.

5. Investments

The gross unrealized gains and losses on investments in fixed maturity securities, including redeemable preferred stocks that have characteristics of fixed maturities, and equity securities, including interests in mutual funds, and other invested assets were as follows for the periods indicated.


	As of September 30, 2017
					Gross Unrealized Losses (3)
	Cost or		Gross		Non-OTTI		OTTI		Estimated
	Amortized		Unrealized		Unrealized		Unrealized		Fair
	Cost		Gains		Losses		Losses (4)		Value
U.S. Treasury securities	$	1,810	$	—	$	(1)	$	—	$	1,809
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		382,327		15,725		(1,531)		—		396,521
Residential mortgage-backed securities (1)		234,011		2,977		(1,607)		—		235,381
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		37,233		484		(302)		—		37,415
Other asset-backed securities		73,599		245		(92)		—		73,752
Corporate and other securities		426,486		8,355		(2,088)		—		432,753
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		1,155,466		27,786		(5,621)		—		1,177,631
Equity securities (2)		87,580		19,222		(815)		—		105,987
Other invested assets (5)		27,893		—		—		—		27,893
Totals	$	1,270,939	$	47,008	$	(6,436)	$	—	$	1,311,511

Table of Contents

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)


	As of December 31, 2016
					Gross Unrealized Losses (3)
	Cost or		Gross		Non-OTTI		OTTI		Estimated
	Amortized		Unrealized		Unrealized		Unrealized		Fair
	Cost		Gains		Losses		Losses (4)		Value
U.S. Treasury securities	$	302	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	302
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		382,811		11,534		(3,912)		—		390,433
Residential mortgage-backed securities (1)		252,031		3,256		(2,656)		—		252,631
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		35,695		191		(432)		—		35,454
Other asset-backed securities		70,411		89		(90)		—		70,410
Corporate and other securities		401,413		7,070		(3,444)		—		405,039
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		1,142,663		22,140		(10,534)		—		1,154,269
Equity securities (2)		92,326		15,504		(2,735)		—		105,095
Other invested assets (5)		21,142		—		—		—		21,142
Totals	$	1,256,131	$	37,644	$	(13,269)	$	—	$	1,280,506

(1)

Residential mortgage-backed securities consists primarily of obligations of U.S. Government agencies including collateralized mortgage obligations issued, guaranteed and/or insured by the following issuers: Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB).

(2)

Equity securities included interests in mutual funds held to fund the Company’s executive deferred compensation plan.

(3)

Our investment portfolio included 303 and 343 securities in an unrealized loss position at September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively.

(4)

Amounts in this column represent other-than-temporary impairment (“OTTI”) recognized in accumulated other comprehensive income.

(5)

Other invested assets are accounted for under the equity method which approximated fair value.

The amortized cost and the estimated fair value of fixed maturity securities, by maturity, are shown below for the period indicated. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.


	As of September 30, 2017
	Amortized		Estimated
	Cost		Fair Value
Due in one year or less	$	62,734	$	63,035
Due after one year through five years		275,046		281,286
Due after five years through ten years		232,828		238,202
Due after ten years through twenty years		234,936		243,230
Due after twenty years		5,080		5,330
Asset-backed securities		344,842		346,548
Totals	$	1,155,466	$	1,177,631

The gross realized gains and losses on sales of investments were as follows for the periods indicated.


	Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016		2017		2016
Gross realized gains
Fixed maturity securities	$	257	$	429	$	1,214	$	653
Equity securities		2,622		5,031		4,001		6,142
Gross realized losses
Fixed maturity securities		(109)		—		(288)		(991)
Equity securities		(53)		(569)		(101)		(876)
Net realized gains on investments	$	2,717	$	4,891	$	4,826	$	4,928

In the normal course of business, the Company enters into transactions involving various types of financial instruments, including investments in fixed maturities and equity securities. Investment transactions have credit

Table of Contents

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

exposure to the extent that a counter party may default on an obligation to the Company. Credit risk is a consequence of carrying, trading and investing in securities. To manage credit risk, the Company focuses on higher quality fixed income securities, reviews the credit strength of all companies in which it invests, limits its exposure in any one investment and monitors the portfolio quality, taking into account credit ratings assigned by recognized statistical rating organizations.

The following tables as of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016 present the gross unrealized losses included in the Company’s investment portfolio and the fair value of those securities aggregated by investment category. The tables also present the length of time that they have been in a continuous unrealized loss position.


	As of September 30, 2017
	Less than 12 Months				12 Months or More				Total
	Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized
	Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses
U.S. Treasury securities	$	301	$	1	$	—	$	—	$	301	$	1
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		36,860		513		22,231		1,018		59,091		1,531
Residential mortgage-backed securities		132,974		1,029		22,425		578		155,399		1,607
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		11,621		302		—		—		11,621		302
Other asset-backed securities		38,961		92		—		—		38,961		92
Corporate and other securities		84,836		1,244		10,421		844		95,257		2,088
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		305,553		3,181		55,077		2,440		360,630		5,621
Equity securities		3,762		433		3,081		382		6,843		815
Total temporarily impaired securities	$	309,315	$	3,614	$	58,158	$	2,822	$	367,473	$	6,436


	As of December 31, 2016
	Less than 12 Months				12 Months or More				Total
	Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized
	Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses
U.S. Treasury securities	$	301	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	301	$	—
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		79,960		3,912		—		—		79,960		3,912
Residential mortgage-backed securities		182,265		2,476		4,595		180		186,860		2,656
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		15,521		432		—		—		15,521		432
Other asset-backed securities		31,869		90		—		—		31,869		90
Corporate and other securities		118,625		2,044		17,531		1,400		136,156		3,444
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		428,541		8,954		22,126		1,580		450,667		10,534
Equity securities		6,364		315		14,841		2,420		21,205		2,735
Total temporarily impaired securities	$	434,905	$	9,269	$	36,967	$	4,000	$	471,872	$	13,269

Other-Than-Temporary Impairments

ASC 320, Investments – Debt and Equity Securities requires entities to separate an OTTI of a debt security into two components when there are credit related losses associated with the impaired debt security for which the Company asserts that it does not have the intent to sell the security, and it is more likely than not that it will not be required to sell the security before recovery of its cost basis. Under ASC 320, the amount of the OTTI related to a credit loss is recognized in earnings, and the amount of the OTTI related to other factors is recorded as a component of other comprehensive income. In instances where no credit loss exists but it is more likely than not that the Company will have to sell the debt security prior to the anticipated recovery, the decline in market value below amortized cost is recognized as an OTTI in earnings. In periods after the recognition of an OTTI on debt securities, the Company accounts for such securities as if they had been purchased on the measurement date of the OTTI at an amortized cost basis equal to the previous amortized cost basis less the OTTI recognized in earnings. For debt securities for which OTTI was recognized in earnings, the difference between the new amortized cost basis and the cash flows expected to be collected will be accreted or amortized into net investment income.

Table of Contents

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

The Company holds no subprime mortgage debt securities. All of the Company’s holdings in mortgage-backed securities are either U.S. Government or Agency guaranteed or are rated investment grade by either Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s.

The unrealized losses in the Company’s fixed income and equity portfolio as of September 30, 2017 were reviewed for potential other-than-temporary asset impairments. As a result of the analysis, the Company recognized OTTI losses of $256 during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017, which consisted entirely of credit losses related to fixed maturity securities. During the three months ended September 30, 2016, the Company recognized no OTTI losses. During the nine months ended September 30, 2016, the Company recognized $429 of OTTI losses, which consisted entirely of credit losses related to fixed maturity securities.

Specific qualitative analysis was also performed for any additional securities appearing on the Company’s “Watch List,” if any. Qualitative analysis considered such factors as the financial condition and the near term prospects of the issuer, whether the debtor is current on its contractually obligated interest and principal payments, changes to the rating of the security by a rating agency and the historical volatility of the fair value of the security.

The qualitative analysis performed by the Company concluded that outside of the securities that were recognized through OTTI, the unrealized losses recorded on the investment portfolio at September 30, 2017 resulted from fluctuations in market interest rates and other temporary market conditions as opposed to fundamental changes in the credit quality of the issuers of such securities. Therefore, decreases in fair values of the Company’s securities are viewed as being temporary.

The following table summarizes the credit loss recognized in earnings related to fixed maturity securities.


		Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
		2017		2016		2017		2016
Credit losses on fixed maturity securities, beginning of period		$	988	$	1,055	$	1,094	$	796
	Add: credit losses on OTTI not previously recognized		256		—		256		429
	Less: credit losses on securities sold		—		—		(106)		(170)
	Less: credit losses on securities impaired due to intent to sell		—		—		—		—
	Add: credit losses on previously impaired securities		—		—		—		—
	Less: increases in cash flows expected on previously impaired securities		—		—		—		—
Credit losses on fixed maturity securities, end of period		$	1,244	$	1,055	$	1,244	$	1,055

At September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, there were no amounts included in accumulated other comprehensive income related to securities which were considered by the Company to be other-than-temporarily impaired.

Based upon the qualitative analysis performed, the Company’s decision to hold these securities, the Company’s current level of liquidity and our history of positive operating cash flows, management believes it is more likely than not that it will not be required to sell any of its securities before the anticipated recovery in the fair value to its amortized cost basis.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

Net Investment Income

The components of net investment income were as follows:


	Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016		2017		2016
Interest on fixed maturity securities	$	9,113	$	8,716	$	27,462	$	27,245
Dividends on equity securities		678		652		2,000		2,212
Equity in earnings of other invested assets		353		245		761		661
Interest on other assets		24		16		67		48
Interest on cash and cash equivalents		—		—		—		43
Total investment income		10,168		9,629		30,290		30,209
Investment expenses		665		662		1,977		1,974
Net investment income	$	9,503	$	8,967	$	28,313	$	28,235

Fair Value Measurements

ASC 820, Fair Value Measurements and Disclosure provides a revised definition of fair value, establishes a framework for measuring fair value and expands financial statement disclosure requirements for fair value information. Under ASC 820, fair value is defined as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants (an exit price). ASC 820 establishes a fair value hierarchy that distinguishes between inputs based on market data from independent sources (“observable inputs”) and a reporting entity’s internal assumptions based upon the best information available when external market data is limited or unavailable (“unobservable inputs”). The fair value hierarchy in ASC 820 prioritizes fair value measurements into three levels based on the nature of the inputs as follows:

Level 1 — Valuations based on quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities;

Level 2 — Valuations based on observable inputs that do not meet the criteria for Level 1, including quoted prices in inactive markets and quoted prices in active markets for similar, but not identical instruments; and

Level 3 — Valuations based on unobservable inputs.

Fair values for the Company’s fixed maturity securities are based on prices provided by its custodian bank and its investment managers. Both the Company’s custodian bank and investment managers use a variety of independent, nationally recognized pricing services to determine market valuations. If the pricing service cannot provide fair value determinations, the Company obtains non-binding price quotes from broker-dealers. A minimum of two quoted prices is obtained for the majority of the Company’s available-for-sale fixed maturity securities in its investment portfolio. The Company uses a third-party pricing service as its primary provider of quoted prices from third-party pricing services and broker-dealers. To provide reasonable assurance of the validity of each price or quote, a secondary third-party pricing service or broker-dealer quote is obtained from the Company’s custodian or investment managers. An examination of the pricing data is then performed for each security. If the variance between the primary and secondary price quotes for a security is within an accepted tolerance level, the quoted price obtained from the Company’s primary source is used in the financial statements for the security. If the variance between the primary and secondary price quotes exceeds an accepted tolerance level, the Company obtains a quote from an alternative source, if possible, and documents and resolves any differences between the pricing sources. In addition, the Company may request that its investment managers and its traders provide input as to which vendor is providing prices that its traders believe are reflective of fair value for the security. Following this process, the Company may decide to value the security in its financial statements using the secondary or alternative source if it believes that pricing is more reflective of the security’s value than the primary pricing provided by its custodian bank. The Company analyzes market valuations received to verify reasonableness, to understand the key assumptions used and their sources, and to determine an appropriate ASC 820 fair value hierarchy level based upon trading activity and the observability of market inputs. Based on this evaluation and investment class analysis, each price is classified into Level 1, 2 or 3.

Table of Contents

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

Fair values of instruments are based on (i) quoted prices in active markets for identical assets (Level 1), (ii) quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active and model-derived valuations in which all significant inputs are observable in active markets (Level 2) or (iii) valuations derived from valuation techniques in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable in the marketplace (Level 3).

The Company’s Level 1 securities consist of equity securities whose values are based on quoted prices in active markets for identical assets. The Company’s Level 2 securities are comprised of available-for-sale fixed maturity securities whose fair value was determined using observable market inputs. The Company’s Level 3 security consists of an investment in the Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston related to Safety Insurance Company’s membership stock, which is not redeemable in a short-term time frame. Fair values for securities for which quoted market prices were unavailable were estimated based upon reference to observable inputs such as benchmark interest rates, market comparables, and other relevant inputs. Investments valued using these inputs include U.S. Treasury securities, obligations of states and political subdivisions, corporate and other securities, commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities, and other asset-backed securities. Inputs into the fair value application that are utilized by asset class include but are not limited to:

Obligations of states and political subdivisions: overall credit quality, including assessments of market sectors and the level and variability of sources of payment such as general obligation, revenue or lease; credit support such as insurance, state or local economic and political base, prefunded and escrowed to maturity covenants.

Corporate and other securities: overall credit quality, the establishment of a risk adjusted credit spread over the applicable risk-free yield curve for discounted cash flow valuations; assessments of the level of industry economic sensitivity, company financial policies, indenture restrictive covenants, and/or security and collateral.

Residential mortgage-backed securities, U.S. agency pass-throughs, collateralized mortgage obligations (“CMOs”), non U.S. agency CMOs: estimates of prepayment speeds based upon historical prepayment rate trends, underlying collateral interest rates, original weighted average maturity, vintage year, borrower credit quality characteristics, interest rate and yield curve forecasts, U.S. government support programs, tax policies, and delinquency/default trends.

Commercial mortgage-backed securities: overall credit quality, including assessments of the level and variability of credit support and collateral type such as office, retail, or lodging, predictability of cash flows for the deal structure, prevailing economic market conditions.

Other asset-backed securities: overall credit quality, estimates of prepayment speeds based upon historical trends and characteristics of underlying loans, including assessments of the level and variability of collateral, revenue generating agreements, area licenses agreements, product sourcing agreements and equipment and property leases.

Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston (“FHLB-Boston”): value is equal to the cost of the member stock purchased.

In order to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price (consistent with ASC 820), the Company’s procedures for validating quotes or prices obtained from third parties include, but are not limited to, obtaining a minimum of two price quotes for each fixed maturity security if possible, as discussed above, the periodic testing of sales activity to determine if there are any significant differences between the market price used to value the security as of the balance sheet date and the sales price of the security for sales that occurred around the balance sheet date, and the periodic review of reports provided by its external investment manager regarding those securities with ratings changes and securities placed on its “Watch List.” In addition, valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by the Company’s external investment manager, whose investment professionals are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade, to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price (consistent with ASC 820).

Table of Contents

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

All unadjusted estimates of fair value for our fixed maturities priced by the pricing services as described above are included in the amounts disclosed in Level 2. With the exception of the FHLB-Boston security, which is categorized as a Level 3 security, the Company’s entire available-for-sale portfolio was priced based upon quoted market prices or other observable inputs as of September 30, 2017. There were no significant changes to the valuation process during the nine months ended September 30, 2017. As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, no quotes or prices obtained were adjusted by management. All broker quotes obtained were non-binding.

At September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, investments in fixed maturities and equity securities classified as available-for-sale had a fair value which equaled carrying value $1,283,618 and $1,259,364, respectively. We have no short-term investments. The carrying values of cash and cash equivalents and investment income accrued approximated fair value.

The following tables summarize the Company’s total fair value measurements for available-for-sale investments for the periods indicated.


	As of September 30, 2017
	Total		Level 1 Inputs		Level 2 Inputs		Level 3 Inputs
U.S. Treasury securities	$	1,809	$	—	$	1,809	$	—
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		396,521		—		396,521		—
Residential mortgage-backed securities		235,381		—		235,381		—
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		37,415		—		37,415		—
Other asset-backed securities		73,752		—		73,752		—
Corporate and other securities		432,753		—		432,753		—
Equity securities		83,137		82,457		—		680
Total investment securities	$	1,260,768	$	82,457	$	1,177,631	$	680


	As of December 31, 2016
	Total		Level 1 Inputs		Level 2 Inputs		Level 3 Inputs
U.S. Treasury securities	$	302	$	—	$	302	$	—
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		390,433		—		390,433		—
Residential mortgage-backed securities		252,631		—		252,631		—
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		35,454		—		35,454		—
Other asset-backed securities		70,410		—		70,410		—
Corporate and other securities		405,039		—		405,039		—
Equity securities		85,134		84,456		—		678
Total investment securities	$	1,239,403	$	84,456	$	1,154,269	$	678

There were no transfers between Level 1 and Level 2 during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

The following table summarizes the changes in the Company’s Level 3 fair value securities for the periods indicated.


	Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016		2017		2016
	Level 3		Level 3		Level 3		Level 3
	Fair Value		Fair Value		Fair Value		Fair Value
	Securities		Securities		Securities		Securities
Balance at beginning of period	$	680		678	$	678	$	547
Net gains and losses included in earnings		—		—		—		—
Net gains included in other comprehensive income		—		—		—		—
Purchases		—		—		2		131
Sales		—		—		—		—
Transfers into Level 3		—		—		—		—
Transfers out of Level 3		—		—		—		—
Balance at end of period	$	680	$	678	$	680	$	678
Amount of total losses included in earnings attributable to the change in unrealized losses related to assets still held at end of period	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—

Transfers in and out of Level 3 are attributable to changes in the ability to observe significant inputs in determining fair value exit pricing. As noted in the table above, no transfers were made in or out of Level 3 during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016. The Company held one Level 3 security at September 30, 2017 and September 30, 2016.

As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, there were approximately $22,850 and $19,961, respectively, in a real estate investment trust (“REIT”). The REIT is excluded from the fair value hierarchy because the fair value is recorded using the net asset value per share practical expedient. The net asset value per share of this REIT is derived from member ownership in the capital venture to which a proportionate share of independently appraised net assets is attributed. The fair value was determined using the trust’s net asset value obtained from its audited financial statements. The Company is required to submit a request 45 days before a quarter end to dispose of the security.

6. Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

The following table sets forth a reconciliation of beginning and ending reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses (“LAE”), as shown in the Company’s consolidated financial statements for the periods indicated.


	Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016
Reserves for losses and LAE at beginning of year	$	560,321	$	553,977
Less receivable from reinsurers related to unpaid losses and LAE		(83,724)		(68,261)
Net reserves for losses and LAE at beginning of year		476,597		485,716
Incurred losses and LAE, related to:
Current year		400,437		399,685
Prior years		(31,166)		(33,601)
Total incurred losses and LAE		369,271		366,084
Paid losses and LAE related to:
Current year		168,078		229,081
Prior years		193,095		151,109
Total paid losses and LAE		361,173		380,190
Net reserves for losses and LAE at end of period		484,695		471,610
Plus receivable from reinsurers related to unpaid losses and LAE		92,942		80,632
Reserves for losses and LAE at end of period	$	577,637	$	552,242

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

At the end of each period, the reserves were re-estimated for all prior accident years. The Company’s prior year reserves decreased by $31,166 and $33,601 for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016, respectively, and resulted from re-estimations of prior years ultimate loss and LAE liabilities. The decreases in prior years reserves during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016; are primarily composed of reductions in our retained automobile and retained homeowners reserves.

The Company's automobile lines of business reserves decreased for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016, primarily due to fewer incurred but not yet reported claims than previously estimated and better than previously estimated severity on the Company’s established bodily injury and property damage case reserves. Due to the nature of the risks that the Company underwrites and has historically underwritten, management does not believe that it has an exposure to asbestos or environmental pollution liabilities.

7. Commitments and Contingencies

On December 15, 2015, the Company filed for arbitration with a reinsurer in regards to the reinsurance recoverable resulting from the 2015 winter storm losses that are admissible under our contract. The total amount of recoverable in dispute, which is based on our total incurred loss, is $22,838. No provision for collectability has been recorded in the financial statements as we believe the recoverable is valid and will be recovered.

Various claims, generally incidental to the conduct of normal business, are pending or alleged against the Company from time to time. In the opinion of management, based in part on the advice of legal counsel, the ultimate resolution of such claims will not have a material adverse effect on the Company’s consolidated financial statements. However, if estimates of the ultimate resolutions of those proceedings are revised, liabilities related to those proceedings could be adjusted in the near term.

Massachusetts law requires that insurers licensed to do business in Massachusetts participate in the Massachusetts Insurers Insolvency Fund (“Insolvency Fund”). Members of the Insolvency Fund are assessed a proportionate share of the obligations and expenses of the Insolvency Fund in connection with an insolvent insurer. It is anticipated that there will be additional assessments from time to time relating to various insolvencies. Although the timing and amounts of any future assessments are not known, based upon existing knowledge, management’s opinion is that such future assessments are not expected to have a material effect upon the financial position of the Company.

8. Debt

The Company has a Revolving Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with Citizens Bank, N.A. (formerly known as RBS Citizens, N.A. (“Citizens Bank”). The Credit Agreement provides a $30,000 revolving credit facility with an accordion feature allowing for future expansion of the committed amount up to $50,000. Loans under the credit facility bear interest at the Company’s option at either (i) the LIBOR rate plus 1.25% per annum or (ii) the higher of Citizens Bank prime rate or 0.5% above the federal funds rate plus 1.25% per annum. Interest only is payable prior to maturity. The Credit Agreement has a maturity date of August 14, 2018.

The Company’s obligations under the credit facility are secured by pledges of its assets and the capital stock of its operating subsidiaries. The credit facility is guaranteed by the Company’s non-insurance company subsidiaries. The credit facility contains covenants including requirements to maintain minimum risk-based capital ratios and statutory surplus of Safety Insurance Company as well as limitations or restrictions on indebtedness, liens, and other matters. As of September 30, 2017, the Company was in compliance with all covenants. In addition, the credit facility includes customary events of default, including a cross-default provision permitting the lenders to accelerate the facility if the Company (i) defaults in any payment obligation under debt having a principal amount in excess of $10,000 or (ii) fails to perform any other covenant permitting acceleration of all such debt.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

The Company had no amounts outstanding on its credit facility at September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016. The credit facility commitment fee included in interest expense was computed at a rate of 0.25% per annum on the $30,000 commitment at September 30, 2017 and 2016.

Safety Insurance Company is a member of the FHLB-Boston. Membership in the FHLB-Boston allows the Company to borrow money at competitive interest rates provided the loan is collateralized by specific U.S Government residential mortgage backed securities. At September 30, 2017, the Company has the ability to borrow $171,163 using eligible invested assets that would be used as collateral. The Company has no amounts outstanding from the FHLB-Boston at September 30, 2017 and at December 31, 2016.

9. Income Taxes

Federal income tax expense for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016 has been computed using estimated effective tax rates. These rates are revised, if necessary, at the end of each successive interim period to reflect the current estimates of the annual effective tax rates. The effective rate in 2017 was lower than the statutory rate primarily due to effects of tax-exempt investment income.

The Company believes that the positions taken on its income tax returns for open tax years will be sustained upon examination by the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”). Therefore, the Company has not recorded any liability for uncertain tax positions under ASC 740, Income Taxes.

During the nine months ended September 30, 2017, there were no material changes to the amount of the Company’s unrecognized tax benefits or to any assumptions regarding the amount of its ASC 740 liability.

The Company’s U.S. federal tax returns for the years ended December 31, 2015, 2014 and 2013 respectively, were examined by the IRS. This examination related to the refund claim for the 2015 Net Operating Loss that was carried back to prior years, which triggered a review by the Joint Committee on Taxation. The review was completed during the year and no adjustments were noted as part of the review. All tax years prior to 2014 are closed.

In the Company’s opinion, adequate tax liabilities have been established for all open years. However, the amount of these tax liabilities could be revised in the near term if estimates of the Company’s ultimate liability are revised.

10. Share Repurchase Program

On August 3, 2007, the Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $30,000 of the Company’s outstanding common shares. As of September 30, 2017, the Board of Directors had cumulatively authorized increases to the existing share repurchase program of up to $150,000 of its outstanding common shares. Under the program, the Company may repurchase shares of its common stock for cash in public or private transactions, in the open market or otherwise. The timing of such repurchases and actual number of shares repurchased will depend on a variety of factors including price, market conditions and applicable regulatory and corporate requirements. The program does not require the Company to repurchase any specific number of shares and it may be modified, suspended or terminated at any time without prior notice.

No share purchases were made by the Company under the program during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016. As of September 30, 2017, the Company has purchased 2,279,570 shares at a cost of $83,835.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

(Dollars in thousands except per share and share data)

11. Related Party Transactions

Mr. A. Richard Caputo, Jr., a member of the Company’s Board of Directors and Chairman of its Investment Committee, until his resignation in February 2017, is a principal of The Jordan Company, LP (“Jordan”). In 2012, the Company participated as a lender in two loans made by syndicates of lenders to a portfolio company in which funds managed by Jordan are controlling or a significant investor. The first loan, made to Vantage Specialties, Inc., was disposed of in 2016. The second loan, made to ARCAS Automotive (formerly known as Sequa Auto), was disposed of in 2015. The Company made the loans on the same terms as the other lenders participating in the syndicate. The loans were subject to the approval of the Company’s full Investment Committee.

12. Subsequent Events

The Company has evaluated subsequent events for recognition or disclosure in the consolidated financial statements filed on Form 10-Q with the SEC and no events have occurred that require recognition or disclosure.

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Item 2.

MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS

OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our accompanying consolidated financial statements and notes thereto, which appear elsewhere in this document. In this discussion, all dollar amounts are presented in thousands, except share and per share data.

The following discussion contains forward-looking statements. We intend statements which are not historical in nature to be, and are hereby identified as “forward-looking statements” to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In addition, the Company’s senior management may make forward-looking statements orally to analysts, investors, the media and others. This safe harbor requires that we specify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of us. We cannot promise that our expectations in such forward-looking statements will turn out to be correct. Our actual results could be materially different from and worse than our expectations. See “Forward-Looking Statements” below for specific important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements.

Executive Summary and Overview

In this discussion, “Safety” refers to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and “our Company,” “we,” “us” and “our” refer to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. Our subsidiaries consist of Safety Insurance Company (“Safety Insurance”), Safety Indemnity Insurance Company (“Safety Indemnity”), Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Company (“Safety P&C”), Safety Asset Management Corporation (“SAMC”), and Safety Management Corporation, which is SAMC’s holding company.

We are a leading provider of private passenger and commercial automobile insurance in Massachusetts. In addition to private passenger automobile insurance (which represented 57.7% of our direct written premiums in 2016), we offer a portfolio of other insurance products, including commercial automobile (14.9% of 2016 direct written premiums), homeowners (22.4% of 2016 direct written premiums) and dwelling fire, umbrella and business owner policies (totaling 5.0% of 2016 direct written premiums). Operating exclusively in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine through our insurance company subsidiaries, Safety Insurance, Safety Indemnity, and Safety P&C (together referred to as the “Insurance Subsidiaries”), we have established strong relationships with independent insurance agents, who numbered 890 in 1,101 locations throughout Massachusetts and New Hampshire during 2016. We have used these relationships and our extensive knowledge of the Massachusetts market to become second largest commercial automobile insurance carrier and the third largest private passenger automobile carrier in Massachusetts, capturing an approximate 14.7% and 9.7% share, respectively, of the Massachusetts private passenger and commercial automobile markets in 2016 according to statistics compiled by the Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers (“CAR”) based on automobile exposures. We are also the fourth largest homeowners insurance carrier in Massachusetts with a 7.2% share of the Massachusetts homeowners insurance market.

The Insurance Subsidiaries began writing private passenger automobile and homeowners insurance in New Hampshire during 2008, personal umbrella insurance in New Hampshire during 2009, and commercial automobile insurance in New Hampshire during 2011. During the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016, we wrote $20,660 and $19,476, respectively, in direct written premiums in New Hampshire.

On February 9, 2015, the Insurance Subsidiaries each received a license to begin writing our property and casualty insurance products in the state of Maine. We began writing new business in Maine in 2016.

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Recent Trends and Events

For the quarter ended September 30, 2017, loss and loss adjustment expense incurred decreased by $1,169, or 0.9%, to $123,792 from $124,961 for the comparable 2016 period.

The following rate changes have been filed and approved by the insurance regulators of Massachusetts and New Hampshire in 2017 and 2016. Our Massachusetts private passenger automobile rates include a 13% commission rate for agents.


Line of Business	Effective Date	Rate Change
Massachusetts Private Passenger Automobile	July 15, 2017	3.60%
New Hampshire Commercial Automobile	March 1, 2017	6.10%
Massachusetts Commercial Automobile	April 1, 2017	3.80%
New Hampshire Homeowner	December 1, 2016	4.40%
New Hampshire Private Passenger Automobile	December 1, 2016	4.10%
Massachusetts Homeowner	November 1, 2016	3.60%
Massachusetts Private Passenger Automobile	July 15, 2016	5.80%
Massachusetts Commercial Automobile	March 15, 2016	5.50%

Insurance Ratios

The property and casualty insurance industry uses the combined ratio as a measure of underwriting profitability. The combined ratio is the sum of the loss ratio (losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred as a percent of net earned premiums) plus the expense ratio (underwriting and other expenses as a percent of net earned premiums, calculated on a GAAP basis). The combined ratio reflects only underwriting results and does not include income from investments or finance and other service income. Underwriting profitability is subject to significant fluctuations due to competition, catastrophic events, weather, economic and social conditions, and other factors.

Our GAAP insurance ratios are outlined in the following table.


	Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016		2017		2016
GAAP ratios:
Loss ratio	63.3	%	65.5	%	63.9	%	64.9	%
Expense ratio	32.2		30.6		31.8		30.5
Combined ratio	95.5	%	96.1	%	95.7	%	95.4	%

Share-Based Compensation

The maximum number of shares of common stock with respect to which awards may be granted is 2,500,000. The Incentive Plan was amended in March of 2013 to remove “share recycling” plan provisions. Hence, shares of stock covered by an award under the Incentive Plan that are forfeited are no longer available for issuance in connection with 2013 and future grants of awards. At September 30, 2017, there were 209,087 shares available for future grant. The Board of Directors and the Compensation Committee intend to issue more awards under the Incentive Plan in the future.

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A summary of share based awards granted under the Incentive Plan during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 is as follows:


Type of		Number of		Fair
Equity		Awards		Value per
Awarded	Effective Date	Granted		Share		Vesting Terms
RS - Performance	February 22, 2017	29,829	$	74.96	(2)	3 years, cliff vesting (4)
RS - Service	February 22, 2017	19,120	$	73.55	(1)	3 years, 30%-30%-40%
RS - Service	February 22, 2017	16,106	$	73.55	(1)	5 years, 20% annually (5)
RS	February 22, 2017	4,000	$	73.55	(1)	No vesting period (3)
RS	July 1, 2017	1,000	$	68.30	(1)	No vesting period (3)

(1)

The fair value per share of the restricted stock grant is equal to the closing price of our common stock on the grant date.

(2)

The fair value per share of the restricted stock grant is equal to the performance-based restricted stock award calculation.

(3)

Board of Director members must maintain stock ownership equal to at least four times their annual retainer. This requirement must be met within five years of becoming a director.

(4)

The shares represent performance-based restricted shares award. Vesting of these shares is dependent upon the attainment of pre-established performance objectives, and any difference between shares granted and shares earned at the end of the performance period will be reported at the conclusion of the performance period.

(5)

The shares represent awards granted to non-executive employees and vest ratably over a five-year service period.

Reinsurance

We reinsure with other insurance companies a portion of our potential liability under the policies we have underwritten, thereby protecting us against an unexpectedly large loss or a catastrophic occurrence that could produce large losses, primarily in our homeowners line of business. We are selective in choosing our reinsurers, seeking only those companies that we consider to be financially stable and adequately capitalized. In an effort to minimize exposure to the insolvency of a reinsurer, we continually evaluate and review the financial condition of our reinsurers. Swiss Re, our primary reinsurer, maintains an A.M. Best rating of "A+" (Superior). Most of our other reinsurers have an A.M. Best rating of “A+” (Superior) or “A” (Excellent).

We maintain reinsurance coverage to help lessen the effect of losses from catastrophic events, maintaining coverage during 2017 that protects us in the event of a "130-year storm" (that is, a storm of a severity expected to occur once in a 130-year period). We use various software products to measure our exposure to catastrophe losses and the probable maximum loss to us for catastrophe losses such as hurricanes. The models include estimates for our share of the catastrophe losses generated in the residual market for property insurance by the Massachusetts Property Insurance Underwriting Association ("FAIR Plan").

For 2017, we have purchased four layers of excess catastrophe reinsurance providing $615,000 of coverage for property losses in excess of $50,000 up to a maximum of $665,000. Our reinsurers’ co-participation is 65.0% of $100,000 for the 1st layer, 80.0% of $280,000 for the 2nd layer, 80.0% of $135,000 for the 3rd layer and 80% of $100,000 for the 4th layer. As a result of the changes to the models, and our revised reinsurance program, our catastrophe reinsurance in 2017 protects us in the event of a “130-year storm”.

We also have casualty excess of loss reinsurance for large casualty losses occurring in our automobile, homeowners, dwelling fire, business owners, and commercial package lines of business in excess of $2,000 up to a maximum of $10,000. We have property excess of loss reinsurance coverage for large property losses, with coverage in excess of $2,000 up to a maximum of $20,000, for our homeowners, business owners, and commercial package policies. In addition, we have liability excess of loss reinsurance for umbrella large losses in excess of $1,000 up to a maximum of $10,000. We also have various reinsurance agreements with Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Company, of which the primary contract is a quota share agreement under which we cede 100% of the premiums and losses for the equipment breakdown coverage under our business owner policies and commercial package policies.

In addition to the above mentioned reinsurance programs, we are a participant in CAR, a state-established body that runs the residual market reinsurance programs for commercial automobile insurance in Massachusetts under which

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premiums, expenses, losses and loss adjustment expenses on ceded business are shared by all insurers writing automobile insurance in Massachusetts. We also participate in the FAIR Plan in which premiums, expenses, losses and loss adjustment expenses on homeowners business that cannot be placed in the voluntary market are shared by all insurers writing homeowners insurance in Massachusetts. The FAIR Plan’s exposure to catastrophe losses increased and as a result, the FAIR Plan decided to buy reinsurance to reduce their exposure to catastrophe losses. On July 1, 2017, the FAIR Plan purchased $2,000,000 of catastrophe reinsurance for property losses with retention of $100,000.

At September 30, 2017, our total expected reinsurance recovery from reinsurers under our catastrophe reinsurance program related to the 2015 snow event is $67,934. Amounts recoverable from reinsurers are billed to the reinsurer as claims are paid by the Company. At September 30, 2017, the reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid loss and loss adjustment expense related to the 2015 snow event is $29,964.

At September 30, 2017, we also had $90,645 recoverable from CAR comprising of loss adjustment expense reserves, unearned premiums and reinsurance recoverable.

Effects of Inflation

We do not believe that inflation has had a material effect on our consolidated results of operations, except insofar as inflation may affect interest rates.

Results of Operations

Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2017 Compared to Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2016

The following table shows certain of our selected financial results.


	Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016		2017		2016
Direct written premiums	$	215,919	$	213,197	$	642,633	$	630,508
Net written premiums	$	204,467	$	204,594	$	609,153	$	598,152
Net earned premiums	$	195,524	$	190,712	$	578,059	$	563,759
Net investment income		9,503		8,967		28,313		28,235
Earnings from partnership investments		351		802		1,233		3,089
Net realized gains on investments		2,717		4,891		4,826		4,928
Net impairment losses on investments		(256)		—		(256)		(429)
Finance and other service income		4,690		4,713		13,373		13,282
Total revenue		212,529		210,085		625,548		612,864
Loss and loss adjustment expenses		123,792		124,961		369,271		366,084
Underwriting, operating and related expenses		62,994		58,406		183,643		171,876
Interest expense		22		22		67		67
Total expenses		186,808		183,389		552,981		538,027
Income before income taxes		25,721		26,696		72,567		74,837
Income tax expense		7,767		8,099		21,489		22,205
Net income	$	17,954	$	18,597	$	51,078	$	52,632
Earnings per weighted average common share:
Basic	$	1.19	$	1.24	$	3.38	$	3.50
Diluted	$	1.18	$	1.23	$	3.36	$	3.48
Cash dividends paid per common share	$	0.80	$	0.70	$	2.20	$	2.10

Direct Written Premiums. Direct written premiums for the three months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $2,722, or 1.3%, to $215,919 from $213,197 for the comparable 2016 period. Direct written premiums for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $12,125, or 1.9%, to $642,633 from $630,508 for the comparable 2016 period. The 2017 increase occurred in our private passenger automobile, commercial passenger automobile and

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homeowners lines of business, which experienced increases in average written premium per exposure of 3.5%, 2.6% and 4.1%, respectively.

Net Written Premiums. Net written premiums for the three months ended September 30, 2017 decreased by $127, or 0.1%, to $204,467 from $204,594 for the comparable 2016 period. The decrease during the three months ended September 30, 2017 was due to additional commercial automobile premiums ceded to the residual market. Net written premiums for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $11,001, or 1.8%, to $609,153 from $598,152 for the comparable 2016 period.

Net Earned Premiums. Net earned premiums for the three months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $4,812, or 2.5%, to $195,524 from $190,712 for the comparable 2016 period. Net earned premiums for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $14,300, or 2.5%, to $578,059 from $563,759 for the comparable 2016 period.

The effect of reinsurance on net written and net earned premiums is presented in the following table.


	Three Months Ended September 30,					Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2017		2016		2017		2016
Written Premiums
Direct	$	215,919	$	213,197	$	642,633	$	630,508
Assumed		8,291		7,120		25,326		22,674
Ceded		(19,743)		(15,723)		(58,806)		(55,030)
Net written premiums	$	204,467	$	204,594	$	609,153	$	598,152

Earned Premiums
Direct	$	207,597	$	201,818	$	610,636	$	593,203
Assumed		7,525		6,901		24,237		22,207
Ceded		(19,598)		(18,007)		(56,814)		(51,651)
Net earned premiums	$	195,524	$	190,712	$	578,059	$	563,759

Net Investment Income. Net investment income for the three months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $536, or 6.0%, to $9,503 from $8,967 for the comparable 2016 period. Net investment income for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $78, or 0.3%, to $28,313 from $28,235 for the comparable 2016 period. Net effective annualized yield on the investment portfolio was 3.0% for the three months ended September 30, 2017 compared to 2.9% for the three months ended September 30, 2016. Net effective annualized yield on the investment portfolio was 3.0% for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 compared to 3.1% for the nine months ended September 30, 2016. The investment portfolio’s duration was 3.8 years at September 30, 2017 compared to 4.3 years at December 31, 2016.

Earnings from Partnership Investments. Earnings from partnership investments was $351 for the three months ended September 30, 2017 compared to $802 for the comparable 2016 period. Earnings from partnership investments was $1,233 for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 compared to $3,089 for the comparable 2016 period.

Net Realized Gains on Investments. Net realized gains on investments was $2,717 for the three months ended September 30, 2017 compared to net realized gains of $4,891 for the comparable 2016 period. Net realized gains on investments was $4,826 for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 compared to net realized gains of $4,928 for the comparable 2016 period.

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The gross unrealized gains and losses on investments in fixed maturity securities, including redeemable preferred stocks that have characteristics of fixed maturities, equity securities, including interests in mutual funds, and other invested assets were as follows for the periods indicated:


	As of September 30, 2017
					Gross Unrealized Losses (3)
	Cost or		Gross		Non-OTTI		OTTI		Estimated
	Amortized		Unrealized		Unrealized		Unrealized		Fair
	Cost		Gains		Losses		Losses (4)		Value
U.S. Treasury securities	$	1,810	$	—	$	(1)	$	—	$	1,809
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		382,327		15,725		(1,531)		—		396,521
Residential mortgage-backed securities (1)		234,011		2,977		(1,607)		—		235,381
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		37,233		484		(302)		—		37,415
Other asset-backed securities		73,599		245		(92)		—		73,752
Corporate and other securities		426,486		8,355		(2,088)		—		432,753
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		1,155,466		27,786		(5,621)		—		1,177,631
Equity securities (2)		87,580		19,222		(815)		—		105,987
Other invested assets (5)		27,893		—		—		—		27,893
Totals	$	1,270,939	$	47,008	$	(6,436)	$	—	$	1,311,511

(1)

(2)

Equity securities include interests in mutual funds held to fund the Company’s executive deferred compensation plan.

(3)

Our investment portfolio included 303 securities in an unrealized loss position at September 30, 2017.

(4)

Amounts in this column represent other-than-temporary impairments (“OTTI”) recognized in accumulated other comprehensive income.

(5)

Other invested assets are accounted for under the equity method which approximated fair value.

The composition of our fixed income security portfolio by Moody’s rating was as follows:


	As of September 30, 2017
		Estimated
		Fair Value	Percent
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. Government agencies	$	235,380	20.0	%
Aaa/Aa		408,436	34.7
A		234,930	19.9
Baa		142,467	12.1
Ba		51,430	4.4
B		79,161	6.7
Caa		7,688	0.7
Ca		452	—
Not rated		17,687	1.5
Total	$	1,177,631	100.0	%

Ratings are generally assigned upon the issuance of the securities and are subject to revision on the basis of ongoing evaluations. Ratings in the table are as of the date indicated.

As of September 30, 2017, our portfolio of fixed maturity investments was comprised principally of investment grade corporate fixed maturity securities, U.S. government and agency securities, and asset-backed securities. The portion of our non-investment grade portfolio of fixed maturity investments is primarily comprised of variable rate secured and senior bank loans and high yield bonds.

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The following table illustrates the gross unrealized losses included in our investment portfolio and the fair value of those securities, aggregated by investment category. The table also illustrates the length of time that they have been in a continuous unrealized loss position as of September 30, 2017.


	As of September 30, 2017
	Less than 12 Months				12 Months or More				Total
	Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized		Estimated		Unrealized
	Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses		Fair Value		Losses
U.S. Treasury securities	$	301	$	1	$	—	$	—	$	301	$	1
Obligations of states and political subdivisions		36,860		513		22,231		1,018		59,091		1,531
Residential mortgage-backed securities		132,974		1,029		22,425		578		155,399		1,607
Commercial mortgage-backed securities		11,621		302		—		—		11,621		302
Other asset-backed securities		38,961		92		—		—		38,961		92
Corporate and other securities		84,836		1,244		10,421		844		95,257		2,088
Subtotal, fixed maturity securities		305,553		3,181		55,077		2,440		360,630		5,621
Equity securities		3,762		433		3,081		382		6,843		815
Total temporarily impaired securities	$	309,315	$	3,614	$	58,158	$	2,822	$	367,473	$	6,436

As of September 30, 2017, we held insured investment securities of approximately $4,555, which represented approximately 0.3% of our total investments. Approximately $225 of these securities are pre-refunded, meaning that funds have been set aside in escrow to satisfy the future interest and principal obligations of the bond.

The following table shows our insured investment securities that are backed by financial guarantors including pre-refunded securities as of September 30, 2017. We do not have any direct investment holdings in a financial guarantee insurance company.


	As of September 30, 2017
					Exposure Net
			Pre-refunded		of Pre-refunded
	Total		Securities		Securities
Municipal bonds
Ambac Assurance Corporation	$	—	$	—	$	—
Financial Guaranty Insurance Company		225		225		—
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corporation		—		—		—
National Public Finance Guaranty Corporation		4,330		—		4,330
Total	$	4,555	$	225	$	4,330

The Moody’s ratings of the Company’s insured investments held at September 30, 2017 are essentially the same with or without the investment guarantees.

The unrealized losses in the Company’s fixed income and equity portfolio as of September 30, 2017 were reviewed for potential other-than-temporary asset impairments. The Company held two debt securities at September 30, 2017 with a material (20% or greater) unrealized loss for four or more consecutive quarters that additionally had certain qualitative factors that led to an impairment assessment. The Company recognized $256 of OTTI losses during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017, which consisted entirely of credit losses related to fixed maturity securities. During the three months ended September 30, 2016 the Company recognized no OTTI losses. During the nine months ended September 30, 2016 the Company recognized $429 of OTTI losses, which consisted entirely of credit losses related to fixed maturity securities.

Specific qualitative analysis was also performed for securities appearing on our “Watch List,” if any. Qualitative analysis considered such factors as the financial condition and the near term prospects of the issuer, whether the debtor is current on its contractually obligated interest and principal payments, changes to the rating of the security by a rating agency and the historical volatility of the fair value of the security.

The majority of these unrealized losses recorded on the investment portfolio at September 30, 2017 resulted from fluctuations in market interest rates and other temporary market conditions as opposed to fundamental changes in the credit quality of the issuers of such securities. Given our current level of liquidity, the fact that we do not intend to sell these securities, and that it is more likely than not that we will not be required to sell these securities prior to recovery of the cost basis of these securities, these decreases in values are viewed as being temporary.

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For information regarding fair value measurements of our investment portfolio, refer to Item 1-Financial Statements, Note 5, Investments, of this Form 10-Q.

Net Impairment Losses on Investments. The Company recognized $256 of net impairment losses on investments for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2017. There were no net impairment losses on investments for the three months ended September 30, 2016. Net impairment losses on investments were $429 for the nine months ended September 30, 2016.

Finance and Other Service Income. Finance and other service income include revenues from premium installment charges, which we recognize when earned, and other miscellaneous income and fees. Finance and other service income for the three months ended September 30, 2017 decreased by $23, or 0.5%, to $4,690 from $4,713 for the comparable 2016 period. Finance and other service income for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $91, or 0.7%, to $13,373 from $13,282 for the comparable 2016 period.

Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses. Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred for the three months ended September 30, 2017 decreased by $1,169, or 0.9%, to $123,792 from $124,961 for the comparable 2016 period. Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $3,187, or 0.9%, to $369,271 from $366,084 for the comparable 2016 period.

Our GAAP loss ratio for the three months ended September 30, 2017 decreased to 63.3% from 65.5% for the comparable 2016 period. Our GAAP loss ratio for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 decreased to 63.9% from 64.9% for the comparable 2016 period. Our GAAP loss ratio excluding loss adjustment expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2017 was 56.2% compared to 57.1% for the comparable 2016 period. Our GAAP loss ratio excluding loss adjustment expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 was 56.1% compared to 56.3% for the comparable 2016 period. Total prior year favorable development included in the pre-tax results for the three months ended September 30, 2017 was $10,759 compared to $11,734 for the comparable 2016 period. Total prior year favorable development included in the pre-tax results for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 was $31,166 compared to $33,601 for the comparable 2016 period.

Underwriting, Operating and Related Expenses. Underwriting, operating and related expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $4,588, or 7.9%, to $62,994 from $58,406 for the comparable 2016 period. Underwriting, operating and related expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 increased by $11,767, or 6.8%, to $183,643 from $171,876 for the comparable 2016 period. Our GAAP expense ratio for the three months ended September 30, 2017 increased to 32.2% from 30.6% for the comparable 2016 period. Our GAAP expense ratio for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 increased to 31.8% from 30.5% for the comparable 2016 period. The increase in underwriting, operating, and related expenses and the expense ratio is attributable to increases in non recurring legal fees related to reinsurance arbitration, contingent commissions and restricted stock compensation.

Interest Expense. Interest expense was $22 for the three months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016. Interest expense was $67 for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016. The credit facility commitment fee included in interest expense was $56 for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016.

Income Tax Expense. Our effective tax rate was 30.2% and 30.3% for the quarter ended September 30, 2017 and 2016, respectively. Our effective tax rate was 29.6% and 29.7% for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016, respectively. The effective rate in 2017 was lower than the statutory rate of 35.0% primarily due to the effects of tax-exempt investment income.

Net Income. Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2017 was $17,954 compared to net income of $18,597 for the comparable 2016 period. Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 was $51,078 compared to net income of $52,632 for the comparable 2016 period.

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Liquidity and Capital Resources

As a holding company, Safety’s assets consist primarily of the stock of our direct and indirect subsidiaries. Our principal source of funds to meet our obligations and pay dividends to shareholders, therefore, is dividends and other permitted payments from our subsidiaries, principally Safety Insurance. Safety is the borrower under our credit facility.

Safety Insurance’s sources of funds primarily include premiums received, investment income, and proceeds from sales and redemptions of investments. Safety Insurance’s principal uses of cash are the payment of claims, operating expenses and taxes, the purchase of investments, and the payment of dividends to Safety.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $50,085 and $75,811 during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016, respectively. Our operations typically generate positive cash flows from operations as most premiums are received in advance of the time when claim and benefit payments are required. Positive operating cash flows are expected to continue in the future to meet our liquidity requirements.

Net cash used for investing activities was $4,836 during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 compared to net cash used for investing activities of $39,552 during the nine months ended September 30, 2016. Fixed maturities, equity securities, and other invested assets purchased were $168,383 for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 compared to $231,958 for the comparable prior year period. Proceeds from maturities, redemptions, calls and sales, of securities were $168,209 during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 compared to $195,651 for the comparable prior year period.

Net cash used for financing activities was $33,367 and $31,476 during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016, respectively. Net cash used for financing activities is primarily comprised of dividend payments to shareholders.

The Insurance Subsidiaries maintain a high degree of liquidity within their respective investment portfolios in fixed maturity and equity securities. We do not anticipate the need to sell these securities to meet the Insurance Subsidiaries cash requirements. We expect the Insurance Subsidiaries to generate sufficient operating cash to meet all short-term and long-term cash requirements. However, there can be no assurance that unforeseen business needs or other items will not occur causing us to have to sell securities before their values fully recover; thereby causing us to recognize additional impairment charges in that time period.

Credit Facility

For information regarding our Credit Facility, please refer to Item 1- Financial Statements, Note 8, Debt, of this Form 10-Q.

Recent Accounting Pronouncements

For information regarding Recent Accounting Pronouncements, please refer to Item 1- Financial Statements, Note 2, Recent Accounting Pronouncements, of this Form 10-Q.

Regulatory Matters

Our Insurance Subsidiaries are subject to various regulatory restrictions that limit the maximum amount of dividends available to be paid to their parent without prior approval of the Commissioner. The Massachusetts statute limits the dividends an insurer may pay in any twelve-month period, without the prior permission of the Commissioner, to the greater of (i) 10% of the insurer’s surplus as of the preceding December 31 or (ii) the insurer’s net income for the twelve-month period ending the preceding December 31, in each case determined in accordance with statutory accounting practices. Our insurance company subsidiaries may not declare an “extraordinary dividend” (defined as any dividend or distribution that, together with other distributions made within the preceding twelve months, exceeds the limits established by Massachusetts statute) until thirty days after the Commissioner has received notice of the intended

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dividend and has not objected. As historically administered by the Commissioner, this provision requires the Commissioner’s prior approval of an extraordinary dividend. Under Massachusetts law, an insurer may pay cash dividends only from its unassigned funds, also known as earned surplus, and the insurer’s remaining surplus must be both reasonable in relation to its outstanding liabilities and adequate to its financial needs. At year-end December 31, 2016, the statutory surplus of Safety Insurance was $604,813, and its statutory net income for 2016 was $57,202. As a result, a maximum of $60,481 is available in 2017 for such dividends without prior approval of the Commissioner. As result of this Massachusetts statute, the Insurance Subsidiaries had restricted net assets in the amount of $544,332 at December 31, 2016. During the nine months ended September 30, 2017, Safety Insurance paid dividends to Safety of $30,630.

The maximum dividend permitted by law is not indicative of an insurer’s actual ability to pay dividends, which may be constrained by business and regulatory considerations, such as the impact of dividends on surplus, which could affect an insurer’s ratings or competitive position, the amount of premiums that can be written and the ability to pay future dividends.

Since the initial public offering of its common stock in November 2002, the Company has paid regular quarterly dividends to shareholders of its common stock. Quarterly dividends paid during 2017 were as follows:


					Total
Declaration	Record	Payment	Dividend per		Dividends Paid
Date	Date	Date	Common Share		and Accrued
February 15, 2017	March 1, 2017	March 15, 2017	$	0.70	$	10,674
May 3, 2017	June 1, 2017	June 15, 2017	$	0.70	$	10,665
August 2, 2017	September 1, 2017	September 15, 2017	$	0.80	$	12,182

On November 1, 2017, our Board approved and declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.80 per share which will be paid on December 15, 2017 to shareholders of record on December 1, 2017. We plan to continue to declare and pay quarterly cash dividends in 2018, depending on our financial position and the regularity of our cash flows.

On August 3, 2007, the Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $30,000 of the Company’s outstanding common shares. As of September 30, 2017, the Board of Directors had cumulatively authorized increases to the existing share repurchase program of up to $150,000 of its outstanding common shares. Under the program, the Company may repurchase shares of its common stock for cash in public or private transactions, in the open market or otherwise. The timing of such repurchases and actual number of shares repurchased will depend on a variety of factors including price, market conditions and applicable regulatory and corporate requirements. The program does not require us to repurchase any specific number of shares and may be modified, suspended or terminated at any time without prior notice. As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, the Company had purchased 2,279,570 shares of common stock at a cost of $83,835.

Management believes that the current level of cash flow from operations provides us with sufficient liquidity to meet our operating needs over the next 12 months. We expect to be able to continue to meet our operating needs after the next 12 months from internally generated funds. Since our ability to meet our obligations in the long term (beyond such twelve-month period) is dependent upon such factors as market changes, insurance regulatory changes and economic conditions, no assurance can be given that the available net cash flow will be sufficient to meet our operating needs. We expect that we would need to borrow or issue capital stock if we needed additional funds, for example, to pay for an acquisition or a significant expansion of our operations. There can be no assurance that sufficient funds for any of the foregoing purposes would be available to us at such time.

Risk-Based Capital Requirements

The NAIC has adopted a formula and model law to implement risk-based capital requirements for most property and casualty insurance companies, which are designed to determine minimum capital requirements and to raise the level of protection that statutory surplus provides for policyholder obligations. Under Massachusetts law, insurers having less total adjusted capital than that required by the risk-based capital calculation will be subject to varying degrees of regulatory action, depending on the level of capital inadequacy. The risk-based capital law provides for four levels of regulatory action. The extent of regulatory intervention and action increases as the level of total adjusted

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capital to risk-based capital falls. As of December 31, 2016, the Insurance Subsidiaries had total adjusted capital of $604,813, which is in excess of amounts requiring company or regulatory action at any prescribed risk-based capital action level. Minimum statutory capital and surplus, or company action level risk-based capital, was $107,664 at December 31, 2016.

Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements

We have no material obligations under a guarantee contract meeting the characteristics identified in ASC 460, Guarantees. We have no material retained or contingent interests in assets transferred to an unconsolidated entity. We have no material obligations, including contingent obligations, under contracts that would be accounted for as derivative instruments. We have no obligations, including contingent obligations, arising out of a variable interest in an unconsolidated entity held by, and material to, us, where such entity provides financing, liquidity, market risk or credit risk support to, or engages in leasing, hedging or research and development services with us. We have no direct investments in real estate and no holdings of mortgages secured by commercial real estate. Accordingly, we have no material off-balance sheet arrangements.

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

Significant periods of time can elapse between the occurrence of an insured loss, the reporting to us of that loss and our final payment of that loss. To recognize liabilities for unpaid losses, we establish reserves as balance sheet liabilities. Our reserves represent estimates of amounts needed to pay reported and estimated losses incurred but not yet reported (“IBNR”) and the expenses of investigating and paying those losses, or loss adjustment expenses. Every quarter, we review our previously established reserves and adjust them, if necessary.

When a claim is reported, claims personnel establish a “case reserve” for the estimated amount of the ultimate payment. The amount of the reserve is primarily based upon an evaluation of the type of claim involved, the circumstances surrounding each claim and the policy provisions relating to the loss. The estimate reflects the informed judgment of such personnel based on general insurance reserving practices and on the experience and knowledge of the claims person. During the loss adjustment period, these estimates are revised as deemed necessary by our claims department based on subsequent developments and periodic reviews of the cases. When a claim is closed with or without a payment, the difference between the case reserve and the settlement amount creates a reserve deficiency if the payment exceeds the case reserve or a reserve redundancy if the payment is less than the case reserve.

In accordance with industry practice, we also maintain reserves for IBNR. IBNR reserves are determined in accordance with commonly accepted actuarial reserving techniques on the basis of our historical information and experience. We review and make adjustments to incurred but not yet reported reserves quarterly. In addition, IBNR reserves can also be expressed as the total loss reserves required less the case reserves on reported claims.

When reviewing reserves, we analyze historical data and estimate the impact of various loss development factors, such as our historical loss experience and that of the industry, trends in claims frequency and severity, our mix of business, our claims processing procedures, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in imposition of damages, and changes and trends in general economic conditions, including the effects of inflation. A change in any of these factors from the assumption implicit in our estimate can cause our actual loss experience to be better or worse than our reserves, and the difference can be material. There is no precise method, however, for evaluating the impact of any specific factor on the adequacy of reserves, because the eventual development of reserves is affected by many factors.

In estimating all our loss reserves, we follow the guidance prescribed by Accounting Standards Codification (“ASC”) 944, Financial Services – Insurance.

Management determines our loss and LAE reserves estimate based upon the analysis of our actuaries. A reasonable estimate is derived by selecting a point estimate within a range of indications as calculated by our actuaries using generally accepted actuarial techniques. The key assumption in most actuarial analysis is that past patterns of

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frequency and severity will repeat in the future, unless a significant change in the factors described above takes place. Our key factors and resulting assumptions are the ultimate frequency and severity of claims, based upon the most recent ten years of claims reported to the Company, and the data CAR reports to us to calculate our share of the residual market, as of the date of the applicable balance sheet. For each accident year and each coverage within a line of business our actuaries calculate the ultimate losses incurred. Our total reserves are the difference between the ultimate losses incurred and the cumulative loss and loss adjustment payments made to date. Our IBNR reserves are calculated as the difference between our total reserves and the outstanding case reserves at the end of the accounting period. To determine ultimate losses, our actuaries calculate a range of indications and select a point estimation using such actuarial techniques as:

Paid Loss Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates based upon extrapolations of historic paid loss trends. This method tends to be used on short tail lines such as automobile physical damage.

Incurred Loss Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates based upon extrapolations of historic incurred loss trends. This method tends to be used on long tail lines of business such as automobile liability and homeowner’s liability.

Bornhuetter-Ferguson Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates based upon extrapolations of an expected amount of IBNR, which is added to current incurred losses or paid losses. This method tends to be used on small, immature, or volatile lines of business, such as our BOP and umbrella lines of business.

Bodily Injury Code Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates for our private passenger and commercial automobile bodily injury coverage based upon extrapolations of the historic number of accidents and the historic number of bodily injury claims per accident. Projected ultimate bodily injury claims are then segregated into expected claims by type of injury (e.g. soft tissue injury vs. hard tissue injury) based on past experience. An ultimate severity, or average paid loss amounts, is estimated based upon extrapolating historic trends. Projected ultimate loss estimates using this method are the aggregate of estimated losses by injury type.

Such techniques assume that past experience, adjusted for the effects of current developments and anticipated trends, is an appropriate basis for predicting our ultimate losses, total reserves, and resulting IBNR reserves. It is possible that the final outcome may fall above or below these amounts as a result of a number of factors, including immature data, sparse data, or significant growth in a line of business. Using these methodologies our actuaries established a range of reasonably possible estimations for net reserves of approximately $433,643 to $500,548 as of September 30, 2017. In general, the low and high values of the ranges represent reasonable minimum and maximum values of the indications based on the techniques described above. Our selected point estimate of net loss and LAE reserves based upon the analysis of our actuaries was $484,695 as of September 30, 2017.

The following table presents the point estimation of the recorded reserves and the range of estimations by line of business for net loss and LAE reserves as of September 30, 2017.


		As of September 30, 2017
Line of Business	Low		Recorded		High
Private passenger automobile	$	216,151	$	240,091	$	242,071
Commercial automobile		80,915		86,550		88,621
Homeowners		73,903		85,824		92,701
All other		62,674		72,230		77,155
Total	$	433,643	$	484,695	$	500,548

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The following table presents our total net reserves and the corresponding case reserves and IBNR reserves for each line of business as of September 30, 2017.


		As of September 30, 2017
Line of Business	Case		IBNR		Total
Private passenger automobile	$	255,544	$	(15,800)	$	239,744
CAR assumed private passenger auto		44		303		347
Commercial automobile		52,661		7,954		60,615
CAR assumed commercial automobile		13,340		12,595		25,935
Homeowners		70,230		5,244		75,474
FAIR Plan assumed homeowners		3,460		6,890		10,350
All other		39,893		32,337		72,230
Total net reserves for losses and LAE	$	435,172	$	49,523	$	484,695

At September 30, 2017, our total IBNR reserves for our private passenger automobile line of business was comprised of ($35,576) related to estimated ultimate decreases in the case reserves, including anticipated recoveries (i.e. salvage and subrogation), and $19,776 related to our estimation for not yet reported losses.

Our IBNR reserves consist of our estimate of the total loss reserves required less our case reserves. The IBNR reserves for CAR assumed commercial automobile business are 48.6% of our total reserves for CAR assumed commercial automobile business as of September 30, 2017, due to the reporting delays in the information we receive from CAR, as described further in the section on Residual Market Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves. Our IBNR reserves for FAIR Plan assumed homeowners are 66.6% of our total reserves for FAIR Plan assumed homeowners at September 30, 2017, due to similar reporting delays in the information we receive from FAIR Plan.

The following table presents information by line of business for our total net reserves and the corresponding retained (i.e. direct less ceded) reserves and assumed reserves as of September 30, 2017


		As of September 30, 2017
Line of Business		Retained		Assumed		Net
Private passenger automobile	$	239,744
CAR assumed private passenger automobile			$	347
Net private passenger automobile					$	240,091
Commercial automobile		60,615
CAR assumed commercial automobile				25,935
Net commercial automobile						86,550
Homeowners		75,474
FAIR Plan assumed homeowners				10,350
Net homeowners						85,824
All other		72,230		—		72,230
Total net reserves for losses and LAE	$	448,063	$	36,632	$	484,695

Residual Market Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

We are a participant in CAR, the FAIR Plan and other various residual markets and assume a portion of losses and LAE on business ceded by the industry participants to the residual markets. We estimate reserves for assumed losses and LAE that have not yet been reported to us by the residual markets. Our estimations are based upon the same factors we use for our own reserves, plus additional factors due to the nature of and the information we receive.

Residual market deficits, consists of premium ceded to the various residual markets less losses and LAE, and is allocated among insurance companies based on a various formulas (the “Participation Ratio”) that takes into consideration a company’s voluntary market share.

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Because of the lag in the various residual market estimations, and in order to try to validate to the extent possible the information provided, we must try to estimate the effects of the actions of our competitors in order to establish our Participation Ratio.

Although we rely to a significant extent in setting our reserves on the information the various residual markets provide, we are cautious in our use of that information, because of the delays in receiving data from the various residual markets. As a result, we have to estimate our Participation Ratio and these reserves are subject to significant judgments and estimates.

Sensitivity Analysis

Establishment of appropriate reserves is an inherently uncertain process. There can be no certainty that currently established reserves based on our key assumptions regarding frequency and severity in our lines of business, or our assumptions regarding our share of the CAR loss will prove adequate in light of subsequent actual experience. To the extent that reserves are inadequate and are strengthened, the amount of such increase is treated as a charge to earnings in the period that the deficiency is recognized. To the extent that reserves are redundant and are released, the amount of the release is a credit to earnings in the period the redundancy is recognized. For the nine months ended September 30, 2017, a 1 percentage-point change in the loss and LAE ratio would result in a change in reserves of $5,780. Each 1 percentage-point change in the loss and loss expense ratio would have had a $3,757 effect on net income, or $0.25 per diluted share.

Our assumptions consider that past experience, adjusted for the effects of current developments and anticipated trends, are an appropriate basis for establishing our reserves. Our individual key assumptions could each have a reasonable possible range of plus or minus 5 percentage-points for each estimation, although there is no guarantee that our assumptions will not have more than a 5 percentage point variation. The following sensitivity tables present information for each of our primary lines of business on the effect each 1 percentage-point change in each of our key assumptions on unpaid frequency and severity could have on our retained (i.e., direct minus ceded) loss and LAE reserves and net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2017. In evaluating the information in the table, it should be noted that a 1 percentage-point change in a single assumption would change estimated reserves by 1 percentage-point. A 1 percentage-point change in both our key assumptions would change estimated reserves within a range of plus or minus 2 percentage-points.

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	-1 Percent		No		+1 Percent
	Change in		Change in		Change in
	Frequency		Frequency		Frequency
Private passenger automobile retained loss and LAE reserves
-1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated decrease in reserves	$	(4,795)	$	(2,397)	$	—
Estimated increase in net income		3,117		1,558		—
No Change in Severity
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(2,397)		—		2,397
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		1,558		—		(1,558)
+1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated increase in reserves		—		2,397		4,795
Estimated decrease in net income		—		(1,558)		(3,117)

Commercial automobile retained loss and LAE reserves
-1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated decrease in reserves		(1,212)		(606)		—
Estimated increase in net income		788		394		—
No Change in Severity
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(606)		—		606
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		394		—		(394)
+1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated increase in reserves		—		606		1,212
Estimated decrease in net income		—		(394)		(788)

Homeowners retained loss and LAE reserves
-1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated decrease in reserves		(1,509)		(755)		—
Estimated increase in net income		981		491		—
No Change in Severity
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(755)		—		755
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		491		—		(491)
+1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated increase in reserves		—		755		1,509
Estimated decrease in net income		—		(491)		(981)

All other retained loss and LAE reserves
-1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated decrease in reserves		(1,445)		(722)		—
Estimated increase in net income		939		469		—
No Change in Severity
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(722)		—		722
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		469		—		(469)
+1 Percent Change in Severity
Estimated increase in reserves		—		722		1,445
Estimated decrease in net income		—		469		(939)

Our estimated share of CAR loss and LAE reserves is based on assumptions about our Participation Ratio, the size of CAR, and the resulting deficit (similar assumptions apply with respect to the FAIR Plan). Our assumptions consider that past experience, adjusted for the effects of current developments and anticipated trends, is an appropriate basis for establishing our CAR reserves. Each of our assumptions could have a reasonably possible range of plus or minus 5 percentage-points for each estimation.

The following sensitivity table presents information of the effect each 1 percentage-point change in our assumptions on our share of reserves for CAR and other residual markets could have on our assumed loss and LAE reserves and net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2017. In evaluating the information in the table, it should be noted that a 1 percentage-point change in our assumptions would change estimated reserves by 1 percentage-point.

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	-1 Percent		+1 Percent
	Change in		Change in
	Estimation		Estimation
CAR assumed private passenger automobile
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves	$	(3)	$	3
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		2		(2)
CAR assumed commercial automobile
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(259)		259
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		169		(169)
FAIR Plan assumed homeowners
Estimated (decrease) increase in reserves		(103)		103
Estimated increase (decrease) in net income		69		(69)

Reserve Development Summary

The changes we have recorded in our reserves in the past illustrate the uncertainty of estimating reserves. Our prior year reserves decreased by $31,166 and $33,601 during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016, respectively.

The following table presents a comparison of prior year development of our net reserves for losses and LAE for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016. Each accident year represents all claims for an annual accounting period in which loss events occurred, regardless of when the losses are actually reported, booked or paid. Our financial statements reflect the aggregate results of the current and all prior accident years.


	Nine Months Ended September 30,
Accident Year	2017		2016
2007 & prior	$	(639)	$	(1,307)
2008		(9)		(1,596)
2009		(533)		(875)
2010		(811)		(2,262)
2011		(2,334)		(4,417)
2012		(3,638)		(5,841)
2013		(5,284)		(9,498)
2014		(9,042)		(6,329)
2015		(3,562)		(1,476)
2016		(5,314)		—
All prior years	$	(31,166)	$	(33,601)

The decreases in prior years’ reserves during the nine months ended September 30, 2017 and 2016 resulted from re-estimations of prior year ultimate loss and LAE liabilities. The 2017 decrease is primarily composed of reductions of $17,293 in our retained private passenger automobile reserves, $3,592 in our retained commercial automobile reserves, $6,513 in our retained homeowners reserves and $3,697 in our retained other lines reserves. The 2016 decrease is primarily composed of reductions of $12,857 in our retained private passenger automobile reserves, $3,890 in our retained commercial automobile reserves, $10,263 in our retained homeowners reserves and $5,042 in our retained other lines reserves.

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The following table presents information by line of business for prior year development of our net reserves for losses September 30, 2017.


	Private Passenger		Commercial
Accident Year	Automobile		Automobile		Homeowners		All Other		Total
2007 & prior	$	(414)	$	(184)	$	(2)	$	(39)	$	(639)
2008		(9)		—		—		—		(9)
2009		(415)		(118)		1		(1)		(533)
2010		(449)		(359)		—		(3)		(811)
2011		(696)		(212)		(675)		(751)		(2,334)
2012		(1,233)		(634)		(1,021)		(750)		(3,638)
2013		(2,065)		(454)		(2,188)		(577)		(5,284)
2014		(3,838)		(690)		(3,114)		(1,400)		(9,042)
2015		(3,613)		120		13		(82)		(3,562)
2016		(4,561)		(152)		(507)		(94)		(5,314)
All prior years	$	(17,293)	$	(2,683)	$	(7,493)	$	(3,697)	$	(31,166)

To further clarify the effects of changes in our reserve estimates for CAR and other residual markets, the next two tables break out the information in the table above by source of the business (i.e., non-residual market vs. residual market).

The following table presents information by line of business for prior year development of retained reserves for losses and LAE for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 that is, all our reserves except for business ceded or assumed from CAR and other residual markets.


		Retained		Retained
		Private Passenger		Commercial		Retained		Retained
Accident Year		Automobile		Automobile		Homeowners		All Other		Total
2007 & prior	$	(414)	$	(184)	$	(2)	$	(39)	$	(639)
2008		(9)		—		—		—		(9)
2009		(415)		(109)		1		(1)		(524)
2010		(449)		(336)		—		(3)		(788)
2011		(696)		(183)		(669)		(751)		(2,299)
2012		(1,233)		(622)		(948)		(750)		(3,553)
2013		(2,065)		(655)		(2,072)		(577)		(5,369)
2014		(3,838)		(998)		(3,045)		(1,400)		(9,281)
2015		(3,613)		(120)		265		(82)		(3,550)
2016		(4,561)		(385)		(43)		(94)		(5,083)
All prior years	$	(17,293)	$	(3,592)	$	(6,513)	$	(3,697)	$	(31,095)

The following table presents information by line of business for prior year development of reserves assumed from residual markets for losses and LAE for the nine months ended September 30, 2017.


		CAR Assumed		CAR Assumed
		Private Passenger		Commercial		FAIR Plan
Accident Year		Automobile		Automobile		Homeowners		Total
2007 & prior	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
2008		—		—		—		—
2009		—		(9)		—		(9)
2010		—		(23)		—		(23)
2011		—		(29)		(6)		(35)
2012		—		(12)		(73)		(85)
2013		—		201		(116)		85
2014		—		308		(69)		239
2015		—		240		(252)		(12)
2016		—		233		(464)		(231)
All prior years	$	—	$	909	$	(980)	$	(71)

Our private passenger automobile line of business prior year reserves decreased by $17,293 for the nine months ended September 30, 2017. The decrease was primarily due to improved retained private passenger results of $15,310 for the accident years 2012 through 2016. The improved retained private passenger results were primarily due to fewer

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IBNR claims than previously estimated and better than previously estimated severity on our established bodily injury and property damage case reserves.

Our commercial automobile line of business prior year reserves decreased by $2,683 for the nine months ended September 30, 2017. The decrease was primarily due to improved retained commercial results of $2,275 accident years 2012 through 2014.

Our retained homeowners and our retained other lines of business prior year reserves decreased by $6,513 and $3,697 for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 due primarily to fewer IBNR claims than previously estimated.

For further information, see “Results of Operations: Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses.”

Other-Than-Temporary Impairments.

We use a systematic methodology to evaluate declines in fair values below cost or amortized cost of our investments. This methodology ensures that we evaluate available evidence concerning any declines in a disciplined manner.

In our determination of whether a decline in fair value below amortized cost is an OTTI, we consider and evaluate several factors and circumstances including the issuer’s overall financial condition, the issuer’s credit and financial strength ratings, a weakening of the general market conditions in the industry or geographic region in which the issuer operates, a prolonged period (typically twelve months or longer) in which the fair value of an issuer’s securities remains below our amortized cost, and any other factors that may raise doubt about the issuer’s ability to continue as a going concern.

ASC 320, Investments — Debt and Equity Securities requires entities to separate an OTTI of a debt security into two components when there are credit related losses associated with the impaired debt security for which the Company asserts that it does not have the intent to sell the security, and it is more likely than not that it will not be required to sell the security before recovery of its cost basis. Under ASC 320, the amount of the OTTI related to a credit loss is recognized in earnings, and the amount of the OTTI related to other factors is recorded as a component of other comprehensive income. In instances where no credit loss exists but it is more likely than not that the Company will have to sell the debt security prior to the anticipated recovery, the decline in market value below amortized cost is recognized as an OTTI in earnings. In periods after the recognition of an OTTI on debt securities, the Company accounts for such securities as if they had been purchased on the measurement date of the OTTI at an amortized cost basis equal to the previous amortized cost basis less the OTTI recognized in earnings. For debt securities for which OTTI was recognized in earnings, the difference between the new amortized cost basis and the cash flows expected to be collected will be accreted or amortized into net investment income.

For further information, see “Results of Operations: Net Impairment Losses on Investments.”

Forward-Looking Statements

Forward-looking statements might include one or more of the following, among others:

Projections of revenues, income, earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure or other financial items;

Descriptions of plans or objectives of management for future operations, products or services;

Forecasts of future economic performance, liquidity, need for funding and income;

Descriptions of assumptions underlying or relating to any of the foregoing; and

Future performance of credit markets.

Forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. They often include words such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “estimate,” “aim,” “projects,” or words of similar meaning and expressions that indicate future events and trends, or future or conditional

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verbs such as “will,” “would,” “should,” “could,” or “may.” All statements that address expectations or projections about the future, including statements about the Company’s strategy for growth, product development, market position, expenditures and financial results, are forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. There are a number of factors, many of which are beyond our control, that could cause actual future conditions, events, results or trends to differ significantly and/or materially from historical results or those projected in the forward-looking statements. These factors include but are not limited to the competitive nature of our industry and the possible adverse effects of such competition. Although a number of national insurers that are much larger than we are do not currently compete in a material way in the Massachusetts private passenger automobile market, if one or more of these companies decided to aggressively enter the market it could have a material adverse effect on us. Other significant factors include conditions for business operations and restrictive regulations in Massachusetts, the possibility of losses due to claims resulting from severe weather, the possibility that the Commissioner may approve future Rule changes that change the operation of the residual market, the possibility that existing insurance-related laws and regulations will become further restrictive in the future, our possible need for and availability of additional financing, and our dependence on strategic relationships, among others, and other risks and factors identified from time to time in our reports filed with the SEC. Refer to Part I, Item 1A — Risk Factors of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016.

Some other factors, such as market, operational, liquidity, interest rate, equity and other risks, are described elsewhere in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. Factors relating to the regulation and supervision of our Company are also described or incorporated in this report. There are other factors besides those described or incorporated in this report that could cause actual conditions, events or results to differ from those in the forward-looking statements.

Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. We do not undertake any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made.

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Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Information about Market Risk (Dollars in thousands)

Market Risk. Market risk is the risk that we will incur losses due to adverse changes in market rates and prices. We have exposure to market risk through our investment activities and our financing activities. Our primary market risk exposure is to changes in interest rates. We use both fixed and variable rate debt as sources of financing. We have not entered, and do not plan to enter, into any derivative financial instruments for trading or speculative purposes.

Interest Rate Risk. Interest rate risk is the risk that we will incur economic losses due to adverse changes in interest rates. Our exposure to interest rate changes primarily results from our significant holdings of fixed rate investments and from our financing activities. Our fixed maturity investments include U.S. and foreign government bonds, securities issued by government agencies, obligations of state and local governments and governmental authorities, corporate bonds and asset-backed securities, most of which are exposed to changes in prevailing interest rates.

We manage our exposure to risks associated with interest rate fluctuations through active review of our investment portfolio by our management and Board and consultation with third-party financial advisors. As a general matter, we do not attempt to match the durations of our assets with the durations of our liabilities, and the majority of our liabilities are “short tail.” Our goal is to maximize the total after-tax return on all of our investments. An important strategy that we employ to achieve this goal is to try to hold enough in cash and short-term investments in order to avoid liquidating longer-term investments to pay claims.

Based upon the results of interest rate sensitivity analysis, the following table shows the interest rate risk of our investments in fixed maturities, measured in terms of fair value (which is equal to the carrying value for all our fixed maturity securities).


		-100 Basis				+100 Basis
		Point Change		No Change		Point Change
As of September 30, 2017
Estimated fair value	$	1,217,964	$	1,177,631	$	1,133,006
Estimated increase (decrease) in fair value	$	40,333	$	—	$	(44,625)

With respect to floating rate debt, we are exposed to the effects of changes in prevailing interest rates. At September 30, 2017, we had no debt outstanding under our credit facility. Assuming the full utilization of our current available credit facility, a 2.0% increase in the prevailing interest rate on our variable rate debt would result in interest expense increasing approximately $600 for 2017, assuming that all of such debt is outstanding for the entire year.

In addition, in the current market environment, our investments can also contain liquidity risks.

Equity Risk. Equity risk is the risk that we will incur economic losses due to adverse changes in equity prices. Our exposure to changes in equity prices results from our holdings of common stock and mutual funds held to fund the executive deferred compensation plan. We continuously evaluate market conditions and we expect in the future to purchase additional equity securities. We principally manage equity price risk through industry and issuer diversification and asset allocation techniques.

Item 4. Controls and Procedures

Conclusion Regarding the Effectiveness of Disclosure Controls and Procedures

Under the supervision and with the participation of our management, including our Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) and Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”), we evaluated the effectiveness of the design and operation of our disclosure controls and procedures [as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”)] as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based on that evaluation, our CEO and CFO have concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures are adequate and effective and ensure that all

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information required to be disclosed by us in the reports that we file or submit under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the SEC’s rules and that information required to be disclosed in such reports is accumulated and communicated to management, including our CEO and CFO, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosures.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting

There have been no changes in our internal control over financial reporting that occurred during our last fiscal quarter that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

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Part II. OTHER INFORMATION

Item 1. Legal Proceedings - Please see “Item 1 — Financial Statements - Note 7, Commitments and Contingencies.”

Item 1A. Risk Factors

There have been no subsequent material changes from the risk factors previously disclosed in the Company’s 2016 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds (Dollars in thousands)

Item 3. Defaults upon Senior Securities - None.

Item 4. Mine Safety Disclosures — None.

Item 5. Other Information - None.

Item 6. Exhibits - The exhibits are contained herein as listed in the Exhibit Index.

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SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC.

EXHIBIT INDEX


Exhibit
Number		Description

11.0		Statement re Computation of Per Share Earnings (1)

31.1		CEO Certification Pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)/15d-14(a), as Adopted Pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002(2)

31.2		CFO Certification Pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)/15d-14(a), as Adopted Pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002(2)

32.1		CEO Certification Pursuant to U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002(2)

32.2		CFO Certification Pursuant to U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002(2)

101.INS		XBRL Instance Document(2)

101.SCH		XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema(2)

101.CAL		XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase(2)

101.DEF		XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase(2)

101.LAB		XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase(2)

101.PRE		XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase(2)

(1)

Not included herein as the information is included as part of this Form 10-Q, Item 1 - Financial Statements, Note 3, earnings per Weighted Average Common Share.

(2)

Included herein.

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SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.


November 3, 2017	SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (Registrant)



	By:	/s/ WILLIAM J. BEGLEY, JR.
		William J. Begley, Jr.
		Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Secretary and Principal Accounting Officer