United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP - Quarter Report: 2008 September (Form 10-Q)
UNITED
STATES
SECURITIES
AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington,
D.C. 20549
FORM
10-Q
x
|
Quarterly
report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act
of 1934 for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2008.
|
OR
¨
|
Transition
report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act
of 1934 for the transition period from
to
.
|
Commission
file number: 001-33859
United
States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP
(Exact
name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Delaware
|
|
20-0431897
|
(State
or other jurisdiction of
incorporation
or organization)
|
(I.R.S.
Employer
Identification
No.)
|
1320
Harbor Bay Parkway, Suite 145
Alameda,
California 94502
(Address
of principal executive offices) (Zip code)
(510)
522-3336
(Registrant’s
telephone number, including area code)
N/A
(Former
name, former address and former fiscal year, if changed since last report)
Indicate
by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to
be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant
was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing
requirements for the past 90 days.
x
Yes ¨
No
Indicate
by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an
accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer or a smaller reporting company.
See
the definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer” and “smaller
reporting company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
Large
accelerated filer ¨
|
Accelerated
filer ¨
|
Non-accelerated
filer x
|
Smaller
reporting company ¨
|
(Do
not check if a smaller reporting
company)
|
Indicate
by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule
12b-2 of the Exchange Act).
¨
Yes x
No
UNITED
STATES 12 MONTH OIL FUND, LP
Table
of Contents
|
|
Page
|
Part
I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION
|
||
Item
1. Condensed Financial Statements.
|
|
1
|
|
|
|
Item
2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and
Results of Operations.
|
|
14
|
|
|
|
Item
3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.
|
|
29
|
|
|
|
Item
4. Controls and Procedures.
|
|
30
|
|
|
|
Part
II. OTHER INFORMATION
|
|
|
Item
1. Legal Proceedings.
|
31
|
|
Item
1A. Risk Factors.
|
31
|
|
Item
2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of
Proceeds.
|
31
|
|
Item
3. Defaults Upon Senior Securities.
|
31
|
|
Item
4. Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders.
|
31
|
|
Item
5. Other Information.
|
|
31
|
|
|
|
Item
6. Exhibits.
|
|
31
|
Item
1. Condensed Financial Statements.
Index
to Condensed Financial Statements
Documents
|
|
Page
|
Condensed
Statements
of Financial Condition at September 30, 2008 (Unaudited) and December
31,
2007
|
|
2
|
|
|
|
Condensed
Schedule
of Investments (Unaudited) at September 30, 2008
|
|
3
|
|
|
|
Condensed
Statements of Operations (Unaudited) for the three and nine months
ended
September 30, 2008
|
|
4
|
|
||
Condensed
Statement
of Changes in Partners’ Capital (Unaudited) for the nine
months ended September 30, 2008
|
|
5
|
|
|
|
Condensed
Statement
of Cash Flows (Unaudited) for the nine months ended September 30,
2008
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
Notes
to Condensed Financial Statements
for the period ended September 30, 2008 (Unaudited)
|
|
7
|
1
Condensed
Statements of Financial Condition
At
September 30, 2008 (Unaudited) and December 31, 2007
September 30, 2008
|
December 31, 2007
|
||||||
Assets
|
|||||||
Cash
and cash equivalents
|
$
|
4,769,004
|
$
|
18,174,276
|
|||
Equity
in UBS Securities LLC trading accounts:
|
|||||||
Cash
|
1,505,376
|
1,999,108
|
|||||
Unrealized
gain (loss) on open commodity futures contracts
|
(214,800
|
)
|
1,525,370
|
||||
Interest
receivable
|
5,859
|
4,994
|
|||||
Receivable
from general partner
|
132,953
|
-
|
|||||
Total
assets
|
$
|
6,198,392
|
$
|
21,703,748
|
|||
Liabilities
and Partners' Capital
|
|||||||
General
Partner management fees (Note 3)
|
$
|
3,094
|
$
|
8,790
|
|||
Brokerage
commissions payable
|
300
|
-
|
|||||
Other
liabilities
|
134,858
|
3,479
|
|||||
Total
liabilities
|
138,252
|
12,269
|
|||||
Commitments
and Contingencies (Notes
3, 4 and 5)
|
|||||||
Partners'
Capital
|
|||||||
General
Partner
|
-
|
-
|
|||||
Limited
Partners
|
6,060,140
|
21,691,479
|
|||||
Total
Partners' Capital
|
6,060,140
|
21,691,479
|
|||||
Total
liabilities and partners' capital
|
$
|
6,198,392
|
$
|
21,703,748
|
|||
Limited
Partners' units outstanding
|
100,000
|
400,000
|
|||||
Net
asset value per unit
|
$
|
60.60
|
$
|
54.23
|
|||
Market
value per unit
|
$
|
60.66
|
$
|
53.88
|
See
accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
2
Condensed
Schedule of Investments (Unaudited)
At
September 30, 2008
Open
Futures Contracts
|
|
|
Number
of
Contracts
|
|
|
Gains
(Losses) on
Open
Commodity
Contracts
|
|
|
%
of
Partners'
Capital
|
|
United
States Contracts
|
||||||||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire November 2008
|
5
|
$
|
65,750
|
1.08
|
||||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire December 2008
|
4
|
51,800
|
0.85
|
|||||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire January 2009
|
5
|
68,820
|
1.14
|
|||||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire February 2009
|
5
|
44,750
|
0.74
|
|||||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire March 2009
|
5
|
75,550
|
1.25
|
|||||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire April 2009
|
5
|
7,330
|
0.12
|
|||||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire May 2009
|
5
|
(1,000
|
)
|
(0.02
|
)
|
|||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire June 2009
|
5
|
(70,450
|
)
|
(1.16
|
)
|
|||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire July 2009
|
5
|
(167,700
|
)
|
(2.77
|
)
|
|||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire August 2009
|
5
|
(180,250
|
)
|
(2.97
|
)
|
|||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire September 2009
|
5
|
(77,100
|
)
|
(1.27
|
)
|
|||||
Crude
Oil Futures contracts, expire October 2009
|
5
|
(32,300
|
)
|
(0.53
|
)
|
|||||
59
|
$
|
(214,800
|
)
|
(3.54
|
)
|
|||||
Cash
Equivalents
|
||||||||||
|
Cost
|
Market
Value
|
||||||||
United
States - Money Market Funds
|
||||||||||
Goldman
Sachs Financial Square Funds - Government Fund
|
$
|
1,000,929
|
$
|
1,000,929
|
16.51
|
|||||
Goldman
Sachs Financial Square Funds - Treasury Instruments Fund
|
2,057,877
|
2,057,877
|
33.96
|
|||||||
$
|
3,058,806
|
3,058,806
|
50.47
|
|||||||
Cash
|
1,710,198
|
28.22
|
||||||||
Total
Cash and Cash Equivalents
|
4,769,004
|
78.69
|
||||||||
Cash
on deposit with broker
|
1,505,376
|
24.84
|
||||||||
Receivables
in excess of liabilities
|
560
|
0.01
|
||||||||
Total
Partners' Capital
|
$
|
6,060,140
|
100.00
|
See
accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
3
Condensed
Statements of Operations (Unaudited)
For
the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008
Three months ended
|
Nine months ended
|
||||||
September 30, 2008
|
September 30, 2008
|
||||||
Income
|
|||||||
Gains
(losses) on trading of commodity futures contracts:
|
|||||||
Realized
gains on closed positions
|
$
|
486,750
|
$
|
2,268,860
|
|||
Change
in unrealized gains (losses) on open positions
|
(2,845,610
|
)
|
(1,740,170
|
)
|
|||
Interest
income
|
28,187
|
141,384
|
|||||
Other
income
|
-
|
3,000
|
|||||
Total
income (loss)
|
(2,330,673
|
)
|
673,074
|
||||
Expenses
|
|||||||
General
Partner management fees (Note 3)
|
10,804
|
42,768
|
|||||
Brokerage
commissions
|
66
|
1,568
|
|||||
Other
expenses
|
48,808
|
149,402
|
|||||
Total
expenses
|
59,678
|
193,738
|
|||||
K-1
Tax expense waiver
|
(21,129
|
)
|
(61,450
|
)
|
|||
Audit
fees waiver
|
(24,201
|
)
|
(71,504
|
)
|
|||
Net
expenses
|
14,348
|
60,784
|
|||||
Net
income (loss)
|
$
|
(2,345,021
|
)
|
$
|
612,290
|
||
Net
income (loss) per limited partnership unit
|
$
|
(23.45
|
)
|
$
|
6.37
|
||
Net
income (loss) per weighted average limited partnership
unit
|
$
|
(23.45
|
)
|
$
|
4.06
|
||
Weighted
average limited partnership units outstanding
|
100,000
|
150,730
|
See
accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
4
Condensed
Statement of Changes in Partners’ Capital (Unaudited)
For
the nine months ended September 30, 2008
General
Partner
|
Limited Partners
|
Total
|
||||||||
Balances,
at December 31, 2007
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
21,691,479
|
$
|
21,691,479
|
||||
Redemption
of 300,000 partnership units
|
-
|
(16,243,629
|
)
|
(16,243,629
|
)
|
|||||
Net
income
|
-
|
612,290
|
612,290
|
|||||||
Balances,
at September 30, 2008
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
6,060,140
|
$
|
6,060,140
|
||||
Net
Asset Value Per Unit
|
||||||||||
At
December 31, 2007
|
$
|
54.23
|
||||||||
At
September 30, 2008
|
$
|
60.60
|
See
accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
5
Condensed
Statement of Cash Flows (Unaudited)
For
the nine months ended September 30, 2008
Nine months ended
|
||||
September 30, 2008
|
||||
Cash
Flows from Operating Activities:
|
||||
Net
income
|
$
|
612,290
|
||
Adjustments
to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating
activities:
|
||||
Decrease
in commodity futures trading account – cash
|
493,732
|
|||
Unrealized
losses on futures contracts
|
1,740,170
|
|||
Increase
in interest receivable and other assets
|
(133,818
|
)
|
||
Decrease
in management fees payable
|
(5,696
|
)
|
||
Increase
in commissions payable
|
300
|
|||
Increase
in other liabilities
|
131,379
|
|||
Net
cash provided by operating activities
|
2,838,357
|
|||
Cash
Flows from Financing Activities:
|
||||
Redemption
of partnership units
|
(16,243,629
|
)
|
||
Net
cash used in financing activities
|
(16,243,629
|
)
|
||
Net
Decrease in Cash and Cash Equivalents
|
(13,405,272
|
)
|
||
Cash
and Cash Equivalents,
beginning of period
|
18,174,276
|
|||
Cash
and Cash Equivalents,
end of period
|
$
|
4,769,004
|
See
accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
6
Notes
to Condensed Financial Statements
For
the period ended September 30, 2008 (Unaudited)
NOTE
1 - ORGANIZATION AND BUSINESS
The
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (“US12OF”) was organized as a limited
partnership under the laws of the state of Delaware on June 27, 2007. US12OF
is
a commodity pool that issues units that may be purchased and sold on the
American Stock Exchange (the “AMEX”). US12OF will continue in perpetuity, unless
terminated sooner upon the occurrence of one or more events as described in
its Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership dated as of
December 4, 2007 (the “LP Agreement”). The investment objective of US12OF is for
the changes in percentage terms of its net asset value to reflect the changes
in
percentage terms of the price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to
Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the changes in the average of the prices
of
the 12 futures contracts on light, sweet crude oil as traded on
the New York Mercantile Exchange (the “NYMEX”), consisting of the near
month contract to expire and the contracts for the following 11 months for
a
total of 12 consecutive months’ contracts, except when the near month contract
is within two weeks of expiration, in which case it will be measured by the
futures contracts that are the next month contract to expire and the contracts
for the following 11 consecutive months, less US12OF’s expenses. US12OF
accomplishes its objective through investments in futures contracts for light,
sweet crude oil, and other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural
gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures
or
other U.S. and foreign exchanges (collectively, “Futures Contracts”) and other
oil-related investments such as cash-settled options on Futures Contracts,
forward contracts for oil and over-the-counter transactions that are based
on
the price of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other
petroleum-based fuels, Futures Contracts and indices based on the foregoing
(collectively, “Other Crude Oil-Related Investments”). As of September 30, 2008,
US12OF held 59 Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX.
US12OF
commenced investment operations on December 6, 2007 and has a fiscal year ending
on December 31. United States Commodity Funds LLC (formerly known as Victoria
Bay Asset Management, LLC) (the “General Partner”) is responsible for the
management of US12OF. The General Partner is a member of the National Futures
Association (the “NFA”) and became a commodity pool operator with the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission effective December 1, 2005. The General
Partner is also the general partner of the United States Oil Fund, LP
(“USOF”), the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (“USNG”), the United States
Gasoline Fund, LP (“USG”) and the United States Heating Oil Fund, LP (“USHO”),
which listed their limited partnership units on the AMEX under the ticker
symbols “USO” on April 10, 2006, “UNG” on April 18, 2007, “UGA” on February
26, 2008 and “UHN” on April 9, 2008, respectively.
The
accompanying unaudited condensed financial statements have been prepared in
accordance with Rule 10-01 of Regulation S-X promulgated by the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and, therefore, do not include
all information and footnote disclosure required under accounting principles
generally accepted in the United States of America. The financial
information included herein is unaudited, however, such financial
information reflects all adjustments which are, in the opinion of management,
necessary for the fair presentation of the condensed financial statements
for the interim period.
US12OF issues
limited partnership interests (“units”) to certain authorized purchasers
(“Authorized Purchasers”) by offering baskets consisting of 100,000 units
(“Creation Baskets”) through ALPS Distributors, Inc. (the “Marketing Agent”).
The purchase price for a Creation Basket is based upon the net asset value
of
a unit determined as of the earlier of the close of the New York Stock
Exchange (the “NYSE”) or 4:00 p.m. New York time on the day the order to create
the basket is properly received. In addition, Authorized
Purchasers pay US12OF a $1,000 fee for each order to create one
or more Creation Baskets. Units may be purchased or sold on a nationally
recognized securities exchange in smaller increments than a Creation Basket.
Units purchased or sold on a nationally recognized securities exchange are
not
purchased or sold at the net asset value of US12OF but rather at market prices
quoted on such exchange.
In
November 2007, US12OF initially registered 11,000,000 units on Form S-1 with
the
SEC. On December 6, 2007, US12OF listed its units on the AMEX under the ticker
symbol “USL”. On that day, US12OF established its initial net asset value by
setting the price at $50.00 per unit and issued 300,000 units in exchange
for $15,001,000. US12OF also commenced investment operations on December 6,
2007
by purchasing Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX based on light, sweet crude
oil. As of September 30, 2008, US12OF had registered a total of 11,000,000
units.
7
NOTE
2 - SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES
Revenue
Recognition
Commodity
futures contracts, forward contracts, physical commodities, and related options
are recorded on the trade date. All such transactions are recorded on the
identified cost basis and marked to market daily. Unrealized gains or losses
on
open contracts are reflected in the condensed statement of financial
condition and in the difference between the original contract amount and the
market value (as determined by exchange settlement prices for futures contracts
and related options and cash dealer prices at a predetermined time for forward
contracts, physical commodities, and their related options) as of the last
business day of the year or as of the last date of the condensed financial
statements. Changes in the unrealized gains or losses between periods are
reflected in the condensed statement of operations. US12OF earns interest
on its assets denominated in U.S. dollars on deposit with the futures commission
merchant at the 90-day Treasury bill rate. In addition, US12OF earns
interest on funds held at the custodian at prevailing market rates earned
on such investments.
Brokerage
Commissions
Brokerage
commissions on all open commodity futures contracts are accrued on a full-turn
basis.
Income
Taxes
US12OF
is
not subject to federal income taxes; each partner reports its allocable share
of
income, gain, loss deductions or credits on its own income tax
return.
Creations
and Redemptions
Authorized
Purchasers may purchase units (“Creation Baskets”) or redeem units (“Redemption
Baskets”) only in blocks of 100,000 units equal to the net asset value of the
units determined as of the earlier of the close of the NYSE or 4:00 p.m. New
York time on the day the order is placed.
US12OF
records units sold or redeemed one business day after the trade date of the
purchase or redemption. The amounts due from Authorized Purchasers are
reflected in US12OF’s condensed statement of financial condition as
receivable for units sold, and amounts payable to Authorized Purchasers upon
redemption are reflected as payable for units redeemed.
Partnership
Capital and Allocation of Partnership Income and Losses
Profit
or
loss is allocated among the partners of US12OF in proportion to the number
of
units each partner holds as of the close of each month. The General Partner
may
revise, alter or otherwise modify this method of allocation as described in
the
LP Agreement.
Calculation
of Net Asset Value
US12OF calculates
its net asset value on each trading day by taking the current market value
of
its total assets, subtracting any liabilities and dividing the amount by the
total number of units issued and outstanding. US12OF uses the closing price
for
the contracts on the relevant exchange on that day to determine the value of
contracts held on such exchange.
Net
Income (Loss) per Unit
Net
income (loss) per unit is the difference between the net asset value per
unit at the beginning of each period and at the end of each period. The
weighted average number of units outstanding was computed for purposes of
disclosing net income (loss) per weighted average unit. The weighted average
units are equal to the number of units outstanding at the end of the period,
adjusted proportionately for units redeemed based on the amount of time the
units were outstanding during such period. There were no units held by the
General Partner at September 30, 2008.
8
Offering
Costs
Offering
costs incurred in connection with the registration of additional units after
the
initial registration of units are borne by US12OF. These costs include
registration fees paid to regulatory agencies and all legal, accounting,
printing and other expenses associated therewith. These costs will be accounted
for as a deferred charge and thereafter amortized to expense over twelve months
on a straight-line basis or a shorter period if warranted.
Cash
Equivalents
Cash
and
cash equivalents include money market funds and overnight deposits or time
deposits with original maturity dates of three months or less.
Use
of Estimates
The
preparation of condensed financial statements in conformity with accounting
principles generally accepted in the United States of America requires US12OF’s
management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amount
of
assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities
at
the date of the condensed financial statements, and the reported amounts of
the revenue and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could
differ from those estimates and assumptions.
NOTE 3
- FEES PAID BY US12OF AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS
General
Partner Management Fee
Under
the LP Agreement, the General Partner is responsible for investing the
assets of US12OF in accordance with the objectives and policies of US12OF.
In
addition, the General Partner has arranged for one or more third parties to
provide administrative, custody, accounting, transfer agency and other necessary
services to US12OF. For these services, US12OF is contractually obligated to
pay
the General Partner a fee, which is paid monthly and based on average daily
net
assets, that is equal to 0.60% per annum on average daily net
assets.
Ongoing
Registration Fees and Other Offering Expenses
US12OF
pays all costs and expenses associated with the
ongoing registration of units subsequent to the initial offering.
These costs include registration or other fees paid to regulatory agencies
in
connection with the offer and sale of units, and all legal, accounting, printing
and other expenses associated with such offer and sale. For the nine month
period ended September 30, 2008, US12OF did not incur registration fees or
other
offering expenses.
Directors’
Fees
US12OF
is
responsible for paying the fees and expenses, including directors’ and officers’
liability insurance, of the independent directors of the General Partner who
are
also audit committee members. US12OF shares these fees with USOF,
USNG, USG and USHO based on the relative assets of each fund, computed on a
daily basis. These fees for the calendar year 2008 are estimated to be
a total of $286,000 for all five funds.
Licensing
Fees
As
discussed in Note 4, US12OF entered into a licensing agreement with the
NYMEX on January 16, 2008. The agreement has an effective date of December
4,
2007. Pursuant to the agreement, US12OF and the affiliated funds managed by
the
General Partner pay a licensing fee that is equal to 0.04% for the
first $1,000,000,000 of combined assets of the funds and 0.02% for combined
assets above $1,000,000,000. During the nine month period ended September 30,
2008, US12OF incurred $2,527 under this arrangement.
9
Investor
Tax Reporting Cost
The
fees
and expenses associated with US12OF’s tax accounting and reporting requirements,
with the exception of certain initial implementation service fees and base
service fees which were borne by the General Partner, are paid by US12OF.
Other
Expenses and Fees and Expense Waivers
In
addition to the fees described above, US12OF pays all brokerage fees, taxes
and other expenses in connection with the operation of US12OF, excluding
costs
and expenses paid by the General Partner as outlined in Note 4.
In
addition, the General Partner, though under no obligation to do so, has agreed
to pay certain expenses normally borne by US12OF to the extent that such
expenses exceed 0.15% (15 basis points) of its NAV, on an annualized basis,
until December 31, 2008. The General Partner has no obligation to continue
such
payment into subsequent years. These
costs are estimated to be $97,582 for the year ending December 31, 2008.
For the
nine month period ended September 30, 2008, management’s estimated portion of
these expenses would be $96,466 under this arrangement.
NOTE
4 - CONTRACTS AND AGREEMENTS
US12OF
is
party to a marketing agent agreement, dated as of November 13, 2007,
with the Marketing Agent, whereby the Marketing Agent provides certain
marketing services for US12OF as outlined in the agreement. The fee of the
Marketing Agent, which is borne by the General Partner, is equal to 0.06% on
US12OF’s assets up to $3 billion; and 0.04% on US12OF’s assets in excess of $3
billion.
The
above
fee does not include the following expenses, which are also borne by the General
Partner: the cost of placing advertisements in various periodicals; web
construction and development; or the printing and production of various
marketing materials.
US12OF
is
also party to a custodian agreement, dated October 5, 2007, with Brown Brothers
Harriman & Co. (“BBH&Co.”), whereby BBH&Co. holds investments on
behalf of US12OF. The General Partner pays the fees of the custodian, which
are determined by the parties from time to time. In addition, US12OF is party
to
an administrative agency agreement, dated October 5, 2007, with the General
Partner and BBH&Co., whereby BBH&Co. acts as the administrative agent,
transfer agent and registrar for US12OF. The General Partner also pays the
fees of BBH&Co. for its services under this agreement and such fees are
determined by the parties from time to time.
Currently,
the General Partner pays BBH&Co. for its services, in the foregoing
capacities, the greater of a minimum of $125,000 annually or an asset-based
charge of (a) 0.06% for the first $500 million of US12OF’s, USOF’s, USNG’s,
USG’s and USHO’s combined net assets, (b) 0.0465% for US12OF’s, USOF’s, USNG’s,
USG’s and USHO’s combined net assets greater than $500 million but less than $1
billion, and (c) 0.035% for US12OF’s, USOF’s, USNG’s, USG’s and USHO’s combined
net assets in excess of $1 billion. The General Partner also pays a $25,000
annual fee for the transfer agency services and transaction fees ranging
from $7.00 to $15.00 per transaction.
US12OF
has entered into a brokerage agreement with UBS Securities LLC (“UBS
Securities”). The agreement requires UBS Securities to provide services to
US12OF in connection with the purchase and sale of Futures Contracts and
Other Crude Oil-Related Investments that may be purchased and sold by or through
UBS Securities for US12OF’s account. The agreement provides that UBS Securities
charge US12OF commissions of approximately $7 per round-turn trade, plus
applicable exchange and NFA fees for Futures Contracts and options on
Futures Contracts.
US12OF
invests primarily in Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX. On January 16,
2008, US12OF and the NYMEX entered into a license agreement whereby US12OF
was
granted a non-exclusive license to use certain of the NYMEX’s settlement prices
and service marks. The agreement has an effective date of December 4,
2007. Under the license agreement, US12OF and the affiliated funds
managed by the General Partner pay the NYMEX an asset-based fee for the license,
the terms of which are described in Note 3.
10
US12OF
expressly disclaims any association with the NYMEX or endorsement of US12OF
by
the NYMEX and acknowledges that “NYMEX” and “New York Mercantile Exchange” are
registered trademarks of the NYMEX.
NOTE
5 - FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, OFF-BALANCE SHEET RISKS AND
CONTINGENCIES
US12OF engages
in the speculative trading of futures contracts and options on futures
contracts (collectively, “derivatives”). US12OF is exposed to both market risk,
which is the risk arising from changes in the market value of the contracts,
and
credit risk, which is the risk of failure by another party to perform according
to the terms of a contract.
All
of
the contracts currently traded by US12OF are exchange-traded. The risks
associated with exchange-traded contracts are generally perceived to be less
than those associated with over-the-counter transactions since, in
over-the-counter transactions, US12OF must rely solely on the credit of its
respective individual counterparties. However, in the future, if US12OF
were to enter into non-exchange traded contracts, it would be subject to the
credit risk associated with counterparty non-performance. The credit risk from
counterparty non-performance associated with such instruments is the net
unrealized gain, if any. US12OF also has credit risk since the sole counterparty
to all domestic and foreign futures contracts is the exchange on which the
relevant contracts are traded. In addition, US12OF bears the risk of financial
failure by the clearing broker.
The
purchase and sale of futures and options on futures contracts require margin
deposits with a futures commission merchant. Additional deposits may be
necessary for any loss on contract value. The Commodity Exchange Act requires
a
futures commission merchant to segregate all customer transactions and assets
from the futures commission merchant’s proprietary activities.
US12OF’s
cash and other property, such as U.S. Treasuries, deposited with a futures
commission merchant are considered commingled with all other customer funds
subject to the futures commission merchant’s segregation requirements. In the
event of a futures commission merchant’s insolvency, recovery may be limited to
a pro rata share of segregated funds available. It is possible that the
recovered amount could be less than the total of cash and other property
deposited. The insolvency of a futures commission merchant could result in
the
complete loss of US12OF’s assets posted with that futures commission merchant;
however, the vast majority of US12OF’s assets are held in Treasuries, cash
and/or cash equivalents with US12OF’s custodian and would not be impacted by the
insolvency of a futures commission merchant. Also, the failure or insolvency
of
US12OF’s custodian could result in a substantial loss of US12OF’s
assets.
US12OF invests
its cash in money market funds that seek to maintain a stable net asset value.
US12OF is exposed to any risk of loss associated with an investment in these
money market funds. As of September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2007, US12OF
had
deposits in domestic and foreign financial institutions, including cash
investments in money market funds, in the amounts of $6,274,380 and $20,173,384,
respectively. This amount is subject to loss should these institutions cease
operations.
For
derivatives, risks arise from changes in the market value of the contracts.
Theoretically, US12OF is exposed to a market risk equal to the value
of futures contracts purchased and unlimited liability on such contracts sold
short. As both a buyer and a seller of options, US12OF pays or receives a
premium at the outset and then bears the risk of unfavorable changes in the
price of the contract underlying the option.
US12OF’s
policy is to continuously monitor its exposure to market and counterparty risk
through the use of a variety of financial, position and credit exposure
reporting controls and procedures. In addition, US12OF has a policy of
requiring review of the credit standing of each broker or counterparty with
which it conducts business.
The
financial instruments held by US12OF are reported in its condensed
statement of financial condition at market or fair value, or at carrying amounts
that approximate fair value, because of their highly liquid nature and
short-term maturity.
11
NOTE 6
- FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
The
following table presents per unit performance data and other supplemental
financial data for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 for the limited
partners. This information has been derived from information presented in the
condensed financial statements.
For the nine months ended
|
||||
September 30, 2008
(unaudited)
|
||||
Per Unit
Operating Performance:
|
||||
Net
asset value, beginning of period
|
$
|
54.23
|
||
Total
income
|
6.77
|
|||
Net
expenses
|
(0.40
|
)
|
||
Net
increase in net asset value
|
6.37
|
|||
Net
asset value, end of period
|
$
|
60.60
|
||
Total
Return
|
11.75
|
%
|
||
Ratios
to Average Net Assets
|
||||
Total
income
|
7.07
|
%
|
||
Expenses
excluding management fees*
|
(0.25
|
)%
|
||
Management
fees*
|
(0.60
|
)%
|
||
Net
income
|
6.43
|
%
|
*Annualized
Total
returns are calculated based on the change in value during the period. An
individual limited partner’s total return and ratio may vary from the above
total returns and ratios based on the timing of contributions to and withdrawals
from US12OF.
NOTE 7 –
RECENTLY ISSUED ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
Effective
January 1, 2008, US12OF adopted FAS 157 - Fair Value Measurements (“FAS 157” or
the “Statement”). FAS 157 defines fair value, establishes a framework for
measuring fair value in generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), and
expands disclosures about fair value measurement. The changes to current
practice resulting from the application of the Statement relate to the
definition of fair value, the methods used to measure fair value, and the
expanded disclosures about fair value measurement. The Statement establishes
a
fair value hierarchy that distinguishes between (1) market participant
assumptions developed based on market data obtained from sources independent
of
US12OF (observable inputs) and (2) US12OF’s own assumptions about market
participant assumptions developed based on the best information available under
the circumstances (unobservable inputs). The three levels defined by the FAS
157
hierarchy are as follows:
Level
I – Quoted prices (unadjusted) in active markets for identical
assets
or liabilities that the reporting entity has the ability to access at the
measurement date.
Level
II – Inputs other than quoted prices included within Level 1 that are
observable for the asset or liability, either directly or indirectly. Level
II
assets include the following: quoted prices for similar
assets
or liabilities in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar assets
or liabilities in markets that are not active, inputs other than quoted prices
that are observable for the asset or liability, and inputs that are derived
principally from or corroborated by observable market data by correlation or
other means (market-corroborated inputs).
12
Level
III – Unobservable pricing input at the measurement date for the asset or
liability. Unobservable inputs shall be used to measure fair value to the extent
that observable inputs are not available.
In
some
instances, the inputs used to measure fair value might fall in different levels
of the fair value hierarchy. The level in the fair value hierarchy within which
the fair value measurement in its entirety falls shall be determined based
on
the lowest input level that is significant to the fair value measurement in
its
entirety.
The
following table summarizes the valuation of US12OF’s securities at September 30,
2008 using the fair value hierarchy:
At September
30, 2008
|
Total
|
|
Level I
|
|
Level II
|
|
Level III
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
Investments
|
$
|
3,058,806
|
$
|
3,058,806
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
-
|
|||||
Derivative
assets
|
(214,800
|
)
|
(214,800
|
)
|
-
|
-
|
On
September 18, 2008, US12OF announced that it would transfer the listing of
its
limited partnership units that are listed on the AMEX to the NYSE Arca, Inc.
in
connection with NYSE Euronext’s acquisition of the AMEX. US12OF expects that the
listing transfer will occur sometime during the fourth quarter of
2008.
13
Item 2.
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of
Operations.
The
following discussion should be read in conjunction with the condensed financial
statements and the notes thereto of the United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP
(“US12OF”) included elsewhere in this quarterly report on Form
10-Q.
Forward-Looking
Information
This
quarterly report on Form 10-Q, including this “Management’s Discussion and
Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” contains
forward-looking statements regarding the plans and objectives of management
for
future operations. This information may involve known and unknown risks,
uncertainties and other factors that may cause US12OF’s actual results,
performance or achievements to be materially different from future results,
performance or achievements expressed or implied by any forward-looking
statements. Forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and
describe US12OF’s future plans, strategies and expectations, are generally
identifiable by use of the words “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,”
“anticipate,” “estimate,” “believe,” “intend” or “project,” the negative of
these words, other variations on these words or comparable terminology. These
forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that may be incorrect,
and
US12OF cannot assure investors that the projections included in these
forward-looking statements will come to pass. US12OF’s actual results could
differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking
statements as a result of various factors.
US12OF
has based the forward-looking statements included in this quarterly report
on
Form 10-Q on information available to it on the date of this quarterly
report on Form 10-Q, and US12OF assumes no obligation to update any such
forward-looking statements. Although US12OF undertakes no obligation to revise
or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise, investors are advised to consult any
additional disclosures that US12OF may make directly to them or through
reports that US12OF in the future files with the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), including annual reports on Form 10-K,
quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.
Introduction
US12OF,
a
Delaware limited partnership, is a commodity pool that issues units that
may be purchased and sold on the American Stock Exchange (the “AMEX”).
On
September 18, 2008, US12OF announced that it would transfer the listing of
its
limited partnership units that are listed on the AMEX to the NYSE Arca, Inc.
in
connection with NYSE Euronext’s acquisition of the AMEX. US12OF expects that the
listing transfer will occur sometime during the fourth quarter of 2008. The
net
assets of US12OF consist primarily of investments in futures contracts for
light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural
gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the New York Mercantile
Exchange (the “NYMEX”), ICE Futures or other U.S. and foreign exchanges
(collectively, “Futures Contracts”). This includes contracts that are of the
standard industry size as measured in physical amounts of light, sweet crude
oil, as well as similar contracts that are financially settled but are based
on
a percentage of the standard size contracts. US12OF may also invest in other
crude oil-related investments such as cash-settled options on Futures Contracts,
forward contracts for crude oil, and over-the-counter transactions that are
based on the price of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other
petroleum-based fuels, Futures Contracts and indices based on the foregoing
(collectively, “Other Crude Oil-Related Investments”). For convenience and
unless otherwise specified, Futures Contracts and Other Crude Oil-Related
Investments collectively are referred to as “Crude Oil Interests” in this
quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
The
investment objective of US12OF is to have the changes in percentage terms of
the
units’ net asset value (“NAV”) reflect the changes in percentage terms of the
price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured
by
the changes in the average of the prices of the 12 futures contracts (the
“Benchmark Futures Contracts”) on light sweet crude oil traded on the NYMEX,
consisting of the near month contract to expire and the contracts for the
following 11 months, for a total of 12 consecutive months’ contracts, except
when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case
it
will be measured by the futures contracts that are the next month contract
to
expire and the contracts for the following 11 consecutive months, less US12OF’s
expenses. When calculating the daily movement of the average price of the 12
contracts, each contract month will be equally weighted.
14
The
general partner of US12OF, United States Commodity Funds LLC (formerly, Victoria
Bay Asset Management, LLC) (the “General Partner”), which is registered as
a commodity pool operator (“CPO”) with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (the “CFTC”), is authorized by the Amended and Restated
Agreement of Limited Partnership of US12OF (the “LP Agreement”) to manage
US12OF. The General Partner is authorized by US12OF in its sole judgment to
employ and establish the terms of employment for, and termination of, commodity
trading advisors or futures commission merchants.
Valuation
of Futures Contracts and the Computation of the NAV
The
NAV
of US12OF units is calculated once each trading day as of the earlier of the
close of the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) or 4:00 p.m. New
York time. The NAV for a particular trading day is released after 4:15 p.m.
New York time. Trading on the NYSE typically closes at 4:00 p.m. New
York time. US12OF uses the NYMEX closing price (determined at the earlier of
the
close of the NYMEX or 2:30 p.m. New York time) for the contracts held on
the NYMEX, but calculates or determines the value of all other US12OF
investments, including ICE Futures contracts or other
futures contracts, as of the earlier of the close of the NYSE or 4:00
p.m. New York time.
Management’s
Discussion of Results of Operations and the Crude Oil
Market
Results
of Operations. On
December 6, 2007, US12OF listed its units on the AMEX under the ticker symbol
“USL.” On that day, US12OF established its initial offering price at $50.00 per
unit and issued 300,000 units to the initial authorized purchaser, Merrill
Lynch
Professional Clearing Corp., in exchange for $15,001,000 in cash. As of
September 30, 2008, US12OF had issued 400,000 units, 100,000 of which were
outstanding. As of September 30, 2008, there were 10,600,000 units registered
but not yet issued.
More
units may have been issued by US12OF than are outstanding due to the redemption
of units. Unlike funds that are registered under the Investment Company Act
of 1940, as amended, units that have been redeemed by US12OF cannot be resold
by
US12OF. As a result, US12OF contemplates that additional offerings of its units
will be registered with the SEC in the future in anticipation of additional
issuances and redemptions.
As
of
September 30, 2008, the total unrealized loss on crude oil Futures
Contracts owned or held on that day was $(214,800) and US12OF
established cash deposits, including cash investments in money market funds,
that were equal to $6,274,380. The majority of cash assets were held in
overnight deposits at US12OF’s custodian bank, while 23.99% of the cash balance
was held with the futures commission merchant as margin deposits for
the Futures Contracts purchased (margin requirements at this time were
satisfied by unrealized appreciation on investments held at the futures
commission merchant). The ending per unit NAV on September 30, 2008 was
$60.60.
Portfolio
Expenses.
US12OF’s expenses consist of investment management fees, brokerage
fees and commissions, certain offering costs, licensing fees and the fees
and expenses of the independent directors of the General Partner. The management
fee that US12OF pays to the General Partner is calculated as a percentage of
the
total net assets of US12OF. US12OF pays the General Partner a management
fee of 0.60% of net assets. The fee is accrued daily.
During
the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, the daily average total net
assets of US12OF were $9,521,254. During the nine month period ended
September 30, 2008, the management fee paid by US12OF amounted to $42,768,
and
was accrued daily. Management fees as a percentage of average net assets
averaged 0.60% over the course of this nine month period.
US12OF pays
for all brokerage fees, taxes and other expenses, including certain tax
reporting costs, licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, ongoing
registration or other fees paid to the SEC, the Financial Industry
Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and any other regulatory agency in
connection with offers and sales of its units subsequent to the initial offering
and all legal, accounting, printing and other expenses associated
therewith. For the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, US12OF did
not incur any ongoing registration fees or other offering expenses. In
addition, the General Partner, though under no obligation to do so, has agreed
to pay certain costs for tax reporting and audit expenses normally borne by
US12OF to the extent that such expenses exceed 0.15% (15 basis points) of its
NAV, on an annualized basis, until December 31, 2008. The General Partner has
no
obligation to continue such payment into subsequent years.
US12OF
is responsible for paying the fees and expenses, including directors’ and
officers’ liability insurance, of the independent directors of the General
Partner who are also audit committee members. US12OF shares these fees
with USOF, USNG, USG and USHO based on the relative assets of each fund
computed on a daily basis. These fees for calendar year 2008 are estimated
to be
a total of $286,000 for all five funds.
15
US12OF
also incurs commissions to brokers for the purchase and sale of Futures
Contracts, Other Crude Oil-Related Investments or short-term obligations of
the United States of two years or less (“Treasuries”). During the nine month
period ended September 30, 2008, total commissions paid to brokers amounted
to
$1,568. Prior to the initial offering of its units, US12OF had estimated that
its annual level of such commissions was expected to be 0.13% of total net
assets. As an annualized percentage of average net assets, the figure for
the nine month period ended September 30, 2008 represented approximately 0.02%
of average net assets. However, there can be no assurance that commission costs
and portfolio turnover will not cause commission expenses to rise in future
quarters.
Interest
Income.
US12OF
seeks to invest its assets such that it holds Futures Contracts and Other Crude
Oil-Related Investments in an amount equal to the total net assets of the
portfolio. Typically, such investments do not require US12OF to pay the full
amount of the contract value at the time of purchase, but rather require US12OF
to post an amount as a margin deposit against the eventual settlement of the
contract. As a result, US12OF retains an amount that is approximately equal
to
its total net assets, which US12OF invests in Treasuries, cash and/or cash
equivalents. This includes both the amount on deposit with the futures
commission merchant as margin, as well as unrestricted cash held with US12OF’s
custodian bank. The Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents earn
interest that accrues on a daily basis. For the nine month period ended
September 30, 2008, US12OF earned $141,384 in interest income on such cash
holdings. Based on US12OF’s average daily total net assets during this time
period, this is equivalent to an annualized yield of 1.98%.
Tracking
US12OF’s Benchmark.
US12OF
seeks to manage its portfolio such that changes in its average daily NAV, on
a
percentage basis, closely track changes in the average of the daily prices
of
the Benchmark Futures Contracts, also on a percentage basis. Specifically,
US12OF seeks to manage the portfolio such that over any rolling period of 30
valuation days, the average daily change in the NAV is within a range of 90%
to
110% (0.9 to 1.1) of the average daily change of the Benchmark Futures
Contracts. As an example, if the average daily movement of the average of the
prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts for a particular 30-day time period
was 0.5% per day, US12OF’s management would attempt to manage the portfolio such
that the average daily movement of the NAV during that same time period fell
between 0.45% and 0.55% (i.e.,
between 0.9 and 1.1 of the benchmark’s results). US12OF’s portfolio management
goals do not include trying to make the nominal price of US12OF’s NAV equal to
the average of the nominal prices of the current Benchmark Futures
Contracts or the spot price for crude oil. Management believes that it is not
practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when
investing in listed crude oil Futures Contracts.
For
the
30 valuation days ended September 30, 2008, the simple average daily change
in
the Benchmark Futures Contracts was (0.332)%, while the simple average daily
change in the NAV of US12OF over the same time period was (0.325)%. The average
daily difference was 0.007% (or 0.7 basis points, where 1 basis point equals
1/100 of 1%). As a percentage of the daily movement of the Benchmark Futures
Contracts, the average error in daily tracking by the NAV was 0.530%, meaning
that over this time period US12OF’s tracking error was within the plus or minus
10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.
16
*PAST
PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS
17
*PAST
PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS
Since
the
offering of US12OF units to the public on December 6, 2007 to September 30,
2008, the simple average daily change in the Benchmark Futures Contracts
was 0.114%, while the simple average daily change in the NAV of US12OF over
the
same time period was 0.119%. The average daily difference was 0.005% (or 0.5
basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%). As a percentage of the
daily movement of the Benchmark Futures Contracts, the average error in
daily tracking by the NAV was 0.643%, meaning that over this time period
US12OF’s tracking error was within the plus or minus 10% range established as
its benchmark tracking goal.
An
alternative tracking measurement of the return performance of US12OF versus
the
return of its Benchmark Futures Contracts can be calculated by comparing
the actual return of US12OF, measured by changes in its NAV, versus the
expected
changes
in its NAV under the assumption that US12OF’s returns had been exactly the same
as the daily changes in its Benchmark Futures Contracts.
For
the
nine month period ended September 30, 2008, the actual total return of US12OF
as
measured by changes in its NAV was 11.75%. This is based on an initial
NAV of $54.23 on December 31, 2007 and an ending NAV as of September
30, 2008 of $60.60. During this time period, US12OF made no distributions
to its unitholders. However, if US12OF’s daily changes in its NAV had instead
exactly tracked the changes in the daily return of the Benchmark Futures
Contract, US12OF would have ended the third quarter of 2008 with an
estimated NAV of $60.04, for a total return over the relevant time period of
10.74%. The difference between the actual NAV total return of US12OF of 11.75%
and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Futures Contract of 10.74%
was an error over the time period of 1.01%, which is to say that US12OF’s actual
total return exceeded the benchmark result by that percentage. Management
believes that a portion of the difference between the actual return and the
expected benchmark return can be attributed to the impact of the interest that
US12OF collects on its cash and cash equivalent holdings. In addition, during
the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, US12OF also collected fees
from
brokerage firms creating or redeeming baskets of units. This income also
contributed to US12OF’s actual return exceeding the benchmark results. However,
if the total assets of US12OF continue to increase, management believes that
the
impact on total returns of these fees from creations and redemptions will
diminish as a percentage of the total return.
18
There
are
currently three factors that have impacted, during the latest period, or
are most likely to impact, US12OF’s ability to accurately track its
Benchmark Futures Contracts.
First,
US12OF may buy or sell its holdings in the then current Benchmark Futures
Contracts at a price other than the closing settlement price of that contract
on
the day in which US12OF executes the trade. In that case, US12OF may get a
price
that is higher, or lower, than that of the Benchmark Futures Contracts,
which could cause the changes in the daily NAV of US12OF to either be too
high or too low relative to the changes in the daily benchmark. During the
nine
month period ended September 30, 2008, management attempted to minimize the
effect of these transactions by seeking to execute its purchases or sales of
the
Benchmark Futures Contracts at, or as close as possible to, the end of the
day settlement price. However, it may not always be possible for US12OF to
obtain the closing settlement price and there is no assurance that failure
to
obtain the closing settlement price in the future will not adversely impact
US12OF’s attempt to track its benchmark over time.
Second,
US12OF earns interest on its cash, cash equivalents and Treasury
holdings. US12OF is not required to distribute any portion of its income to
its
unitholders and did not make any distributions to unitholders during the nine
month period ended September 30, 2008. Interest payments, and any other income,
were retained within the portfolio and added to US12OF’s NAV. When this income
exceeds the level of US12OF’s expenses for its management fee, brokerage
commissions and other expenses (including ongoing registration fees, licensing
fees and the fees and expenses of the independent directors of the General
Partner), US12OF will realize a net yield that will tend to cause daily
changes in the NAV of US12OF to track slightly higher than daily changes in
the
average of the prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts. During the nine
month period ended September 30, 2008, US12OF earned, on an annualized basis,
approximately 1.98% on its cash holdings. It also incurred cash expenses on
an
annualized basis of 0.60% for management fees and approximately 0.02% in
brokerage commission costs related to the purchase and sale of futures
contracts, and 0.23% for other expenses. The foregoing fees and expenses
resulted in a net yield on an annualized basis of approximately 1.13% and
affected US12OF’s ability to track its benchmark. If short-term interest rates
rise above the current levels, the level of deviation created by the yield
would
increase. Conversely, if short-term interest rates were to decline, the amount
of error created by the yield would decrease. If short-term yields drop to
a
level lower than the combined expenses of the management fee and the brokerage
commissions, then the tracking error would become a negative number and would
tend to cause the daily returns of the NAV to underperform the daily returns
of
the Benchmark Futures Contracts.
Third,
US12OF may hold Other Crude Oil-Related Investments in its portfolio that
may fail to closely track the Benchmark Futures Contracts’ total return
movements. In that case, the error in tracking the benchmark could result in
daily changes in the NAV of US12OF that are either too high, or too low,
relative to the daily changes in the benchmark. During the nine month period
ended September 30, 2008, US12OF did not hold any Other Crude Oil-Related
Investments. However, there can be no assurance that in future quarters US12OF
will not make use of such Other Crude Oil-Related Investments.
During
the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, the average prices of front
12
month Benchmark Futures Contracts rose from near the $93.28 level to
approximately the $101.59 level. The prices of front month contracts were also
higher than the prices of second month contracts for most of the first quarter
of 2008 and the first half of the second quarter of 2008. The price of the
front
month contract was less than the second month contract for the balance of the
second quarter of 2008 and most of the third quarter of 2008, although the
front
month price finished the end of the third quarter of 2008 higher than the second
month contract.
19
As
an
example, assume that the price of crude oil for immediate delivery (the “spot”
price), was $50 per barrel, and the value of a position in the near month
futures contract was also $50. Over time, the price of the barrel of crude
oil
will fluctuate based on a number of market factors, including demand for
oil relative to its supply. The value of the near month contract will likewise
fluctuate in reaction to a number of market factors. If investors seek to
maintain their position in a near month contract and not take delivery of the
oil, every month they must sell their current near month contract as it
approaches expiration and invest in the next month contract.
If
the
futures market is in backwardation, e.g.,
when
the expected price of crude oil in the future would be less, the investor would
be buying a next month contract for a lower price than the current near month
contract. Hypothetically, and assuming no other changes to either prevailing
crude oil prices or the price relationship between the spot price, the near
month contract and the next month contract (and ignoring the impact of
commission costs and the interest earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash
equivalents), the value of the next month contract would rise as it approaches
expiration and becomes the new near month contract. In this example, the value
of the $50 investment would tend to rise faster than the spot price of crude
oil, or fall slower. As a result, it would be possible in this hypothetical
example for the price of spot crude oil to have risen to $60 after some period
of time, while the value of the investment in the futures contract would have
risen to $65, assuming backwardation is large enough or enough time has elapsed.
Similarly, the spot price of crude oil could have fallen to $40 while the value
of an investment in the futures contract could have fallen to only $45. Over
time, if backwardation remained constant, the difference would continue to
increase.
If
the
futures market is in contango, the investor would be buying a next month
contract for a higher price than the current near month contract.
Hypothetically, and assuming no other changes to either prevailing crude oil
prices or the price relationship between the spot price, the near month contract
and the next month contract (and ignoring the impact of commission costs and
the
interest earned on cash), the value of the next month contract would fall as
it
approaches expiration and becomes the new near month contract. In this example,
it would mean that the value of the $50 investment would tend to rise slower
than the spot price of crude oil, or fall faster. As a result, it would be
possible in this hypothetical example for the spot price of crude oil to
have risen to $60 after some period of time, while the value of the investment
in the futures contract will have risen to only $55, assuming contango is large
enough or enough time has elapsed. Similarly, the spot price of crude oil could
have fallen to $45 while the value of an investment in the futures contract
could have fallen to $40. Over time, if contango remained constant, the
difference would continue to increase.
Historically,
the crude oil futures markets have experienced periods of contango and
backwardation, with backwardation being in place more often than contango.
During the previous two years, including 2006 and the first half of 2007, these
markets have experienced contango. However, starting early in the third quarter
of 2007, the crude oil futures market moved into backwardation and remained
in
that condition for the rest of the year. The crude oil markets remained in
backwardation until late in the second quarter of 2008 when they moved into
contango. The crude oil markets remained in contango until late in the third
quarter of 2008, when the markets moved into backwardation. The chart below
compares the price of the near month contract to the average price of the first
12 months over the last 10 years (1998-2007). When the price of the near month
contract is higher than the average price of the front 12 month contracts,
the
market would be described as being in backwardation. When the price of the
near
month contract is lower than the average price of the front 12 month contracts,
the market would be described as being in contango. Although the prices of
the
near month contract and the average price of the front 12 month contracts do
tend to move up or down together, it can be seen that at times the near month
prices are clearly higher than the average price of the 12 month contracts
(backwardation), and other times they are below the average price of the front
12 month contracts (contango).
20
*PAST
PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS
An
alternative way to view the same data is to subtract from the dollar price
of
the near month contract the average dollar price of the front 12 month
contracts. If the resulting number is a positive number, then the near month
price is higher than the average price of the front 12 months and the market
could be described as being in backwardation. If the resulting number is a
negative number, then the near month price is lower than the average price
of
the front 12 months and the market could be described as being in contango.
The
chart below shows the results from subtracting from the near month price the
average price of the front 12 month contracts for the 10 year period between
1998 and 2007.
21
*PAST
PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS
An
investment in a portfolio that involved owning only the near month contract
would likely produce a different result than an investment in a portfolio that
owned an equal number of each of the front 12 months’ worth of contracts.
Generally speaking, when the crude oil futures market is in backwardation,
the
near month only portfolio would tend to have a higher total return than the
12
month portfolio. Conversely, if the crude oil futures market was in contango,
the portfolio containing 12 months’ worth of contracts would tend to outperform
the near month only portfolio. The chart below shows the results of owning
a
portfolio consisting of the near month contract versus a portfolio containing
the front 12 months’ worth of contracts. In this example, each month, the near
month only portfolio would sell the near month contract at expiration and buy
the next month out contract. The portfolio holding an equal number of the front
12 months’ worth of contracts would sell the near month contract at expiration
and replace it with the contract that becomes the new twelfth month
contract.
22
*PAST
PRICE MOVEMENTS OF CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS AND HEATING OIL ARE NOT INDICATIVE
OF
FUTURE PRICE MOVEMENTS
As
seen
in the chart, there have been periods of both positive and negative annual
total
returns for both portfolios over the last 10 years. In addition, there have
been
periods during which the near month only approach had higher returns, and
periods where the 12 month approach had higher total returns. The above chart
does not represent the performance history of US12OF or any affiliated funds.
The
General Partner believes that holding futures contracts whose expiration dates
are spread out over a 12 month period of time will cause the total return of
such a portfolio to vary compared to a portfolio that holds only a single
month’s contract (such as the near month contract). In particular,
the General Partner believes that the total return of a portfolio holding
contracts with a range of expiration months will be impacted differently by
the
price relationship between different contract months of the same commodity
future compared to the total return of a portfolio consisting of the near month
contract. The General Partner believes that based on historical
evidence a portfolio that held futures contracts with a range of expiration
dates spread out over a 12 month period of time typically would be impacted
less
by the positive effect of backwardation, and less by the negative effect of
contango, compared to a portfolio that held contracts of a single near month.
As
a result, absent the impact of any other factors, a portfolio of 12 different
monthly contracts would tend to have a lower total return than a near month
only
portfolio in a backwardation market and a higher total return in a contango
market. However there can be no assurance that such historical
relationships would provide the same or similar results in the
future.
Periods
of contango or backwardation do not meaningfully impact US12OF’s investment
objective of having percentage changes in its per unit NAV track percentage
changes in the price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts since the impact of
backwardation and contango tended to equally impact the percentage changes
in
price of both US12OF’s units and the Benchmark Futures Contracts. It
is impossible to predict with any degree of certainty whether backwardation
or
contango will occur in the future. It is likely that both conditions will occur
during different periods.
23
Crude
Oil Market.
During
the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, crude oil prices were impacted
by several factors. On the consumption side, demand remained strong outside
the
United States as continued global economic growth, especially in emerging
economies such as China and India, remained brisk. Additionally, the U.S.
dollar, the currency in which crude oil is traded globally, continued to fall,
effectively making crude oil cheaper for most non-U.S. dollar economies. Crude
oil prices reached an all time high in July 2008 when the front month contract
price reached approximately $145 a barrel.
However,
concerns about a weakening U.S. economy leading to reduced demand for oil
products became a major factor late in the third quarter of 2008. On the supply
side, production remained steady despite concerns about violence impacting
production in Iraq and Nigeria. Political tensions between Iran and the United
States also contributed to market concerns about interruptions in production.
At
the same time, a concern remained about the ability of major oil producing
countries to continue to raise their production to accommodate increasing
demand. However, oil prices reversed their upward trend and fell sharply late
in
the third quarter of 2008 as a slowing U.S. economy, and flat demand growth
outside of the U.S., was enough to improve the global supply and demand balance.
The front month futures contract ended the third quarter of 2008 at
approximately $100, down 31% from its July 2008 highs.
Crude
Oil Price Movements in Comparison to other Energy Commodities and Investment
Categories.
The
General Partner believes that investors frequently measure the degree to
which
prices or total returns of one investment or asset class move up or down
in
value in concert with another investment or asset class. Statistically, such
a
measure is usually done by measuring the correlation of the price movements
of
the two different investments or asset classes over some period of time.
The
correlation is scaled between 1 and -1, where 1 indicates that the two
investment options move up or down in price or value together, known as
“positive correlation,” and -1 indicating that they move in completely opposite
directions, known as “negative correlation.” A correlation of 0 would mean that
the movements of the two are neither positively or negatively correlated,
known
as “non-correlation.” That is, the investment options sometimes move up and down
together and other times move in opposite directions.
For
the
ten year time period between 1997 and 2007, the chart below compares the
monthly
movements of crude oil versus the monthly movements of several other energy
commodities, natural gas, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline, as well as
several
major non-commodity investment asset classes such as large cap U.S. equities,
U.S. government bonds and global equities. It can be seen that over this
particular time period, the movement of crude oil on a monthly basis was
NOT
strongly correlated, positively or negatively, with the movements of large
cap
U.S. equities, U.S. government bonds or global equities. However, movements
in
crude oil had a strong positive correlation to movements in heating oil and
unleaded gasoline. Finally, crude oil had a positive, but weaker, correlation
with natural gas.
10
Year Correlation Matrix 1997-2007
|
Large
Cap U.S. Equities (S&P 500)
|
U.S.
Govt. Bonds (EFFAS U.S. Government Bond Index)
|
Global
Equities (FTSE World Index)
|
Unleaded
Gasoline
|
Natural
Gas
|
Heating
Oil
|
Crude
Oil
|
Large
Cap U.S. Equities (S&P 500)
|
1
|
-0.237
|
0.949
|
-0.087
|
-0.008
|
-0.065
|
-0.037
|
US
Govt. Bonds (EFFAS U.S. Government Bond Index)
|
|
1
|
-0.259
|
-0.175
|
0.197
|
0.065
|
0.033
|
Global
Equities (FTSE World Index)
|
|
1
|
0.124
|
0.029
|
-0.003
|
0.040
|
|
Unleaded
Gasoline
|
|
1
|
0.267
|
0.663
|
0.634
|
||
Natural
Gas
|
|
1
|
0.480
|
0.344
|
|||
Heating
Oil
|
|
1
|
0.802
|
||||
Crude
Oil
|
|
1
|
|||||
source:
Bloomberg, NYMEX
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PAST
PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS
Investors
are cautioned that the historical price relationships between crude oil and
various other energy commodities, as well as other investment asset classes,
as
measured by correlation may not be reliable predictors of future price movements
and correlation results. The results pictured above would have been different
if
a different range of dates had been selected. The General Partner believes
that
crude oil has historically not demonstrated a strong correlation with equities
or bonds over long periods of time. However, the General Partner also believes
that in the future it is possible that crude oil could have long term
correlation results that indicate prices of crude oil more closely track
the
movements of equities or bonds. In addition, the General Partner believes
that,
when measured over time periods shorter than ten years, there will always
be
some periods where the correlation of crude oil to equities and bonds will
be
either more strongly positively correlated or more strongly negatively
correlated than the long term historical results suggest.
24
The
chart
below covers a more recent, but much shorter, range of dates than the above
chart. Over the nine months ended September 30, 2008, crude oil continued
to
have a strong positive correlation with heating oil and unleaded gasoline.
During this period it also had a stronger correlation with the movements
of
natural gas than it had displayed over the prior ten year period. Notably,
the
correlation between crude oil and both large cap U.S. equities and global
equities, which had been essentially non-correlated over the prior ten years,
displayed results that indicated that they had a weak but positive correlation
over this shorter time period, particularly due to the recent downturn in
the
U.S. economy. Finally, the results showed that crude oil and U.S. government
bonds, which had essentially been non-correlated for the prior ten year period,
were weakly negatively correlated over this more recent time
period.
Correlation
Matrix 2008 YTD (9 months)
|
Large
Cap US Equities (S&P 500)
|
U.S.
Govt. Bonds (EFFAS U.S. Government Bond Index)
|
Global
Equities (FTSE World Index)
|
Unleaded
Gasoline
|
Natural
Gas
|
Heating
Oil
|
Crude
Oil
|
Large
Cap U.S. Equities (S&P 500)
|
1
|
-0.641
|
0.920
|
0.565
|
-0.152
|
0.214
|
0.289
|
US
Govt. Bonds (EFFAS U.S. Government Bond Index)
|
|
1
|
-0.682
|
-0.581
|
-0.045
|
-0.414
|
-0.507
|
Global
Equities (FTSE World Index)
|
|
1
|
0.760
|
0.108
|
0.496
|
0.575
|
|
Gasoline
|
|
1
|
0.650
|
0.900
|
0.923
|
||
Natural
Gas
|
|
1
|
0.805
|
0.771
|
|||
Heating
Oil
|
|
1
|
0.914
|
||||
Crude
Oil
|
|
1
|
|||||
source:
Bloomberg, NYMEX
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PAST
PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS
25
Critical
Accounting Policies
Preparation
of the condensed financial statements and related disclosures in compliance
with
accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America
requires the application of appropriate accounting rules and guidance, as well
as the use of estimates. US12OF’s application of these policies involves
judgments and actual results may differ from the estimates used.
The
General Partner has evaluated the nature and types of estimates that
it makes in preparing US12OF’s condensed financial statements and related
disclosures and has determined that the valuation of its investments which
are not traded on a United States or internationally recognized futures exchange
(such as forward contracts and over-the-counter contracts) involves a critical
accounting policy. The values which are used by US12OF for its forward contracts
are provided by its commodity broker who uses market prices when available,
while over-the-counter contracts are valued based on the present value of
estimated future cash flows that would be received from or paid to a third
party
in settlement of these derivative contracts prior to their delivery date and
valued on a daily basis. In addition, US12OF estimates interest income on a
daily basis using prevailing interest rates earned on its cash and cash
equivalents. These estimates are adjusted to the actual amount received on
a
monthly basis and the difference, if any, is not considered
material.
Liquidity
and Capital Resources
US12OF
has not made, and does not anticipate making, use of borrowings or other lines
of credit to meet its obligations. US12OF has met, and it is anticipated that
US12OF will continue to meet, its liquidity needs in the normal course of
business from the proceeds of the sale of its investments or from the
Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents that it intends to hold at all times.
US12OF’s liquidity needs include: redeeming units, providing margin deposits for
its existing Futures Contracts or the purchase of additional Futures Contracts
and posting collateral for its over-the-counter contracts and, except as noted
below, payment of its expenses, summarized below under “Contractual
Obligations.”
US12OF currently
generates cash primarily from (i) the sale of Creation Baskets and (ii) interest
earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents. US12OF has allocated
substantially all of its net assets to trading in Crude Oil Interests. US12OF
invests in Crude Oil Interests to the fullest extent possible without being
leveraged or unable to satisfy its current or potential margin or collateral
obligations with respect to its investments in Futures Contracts and Other
Crude
Oil-Related Investments. A significant portion of the NAV is held in cash and
cash equivalents that are used as margin and as collateral for US12OF’s
trading in Crude Oil Interests. The percentage that Treasuries will
bear to the total net assets will vary from period to period as the market
values of the Crude Oil Interests change. The balance of the net assets is
held
in US12OF’s Futures Contracts and Other Crude Oil-Related Investments
trading account. Interest earned on US12OF’s interest-bearing funds is paid to
US12OF.
26
US12OF’s
investment in Crude Oil Interests may be subject to periods of illiquidity
because of market conditions, regulatory considerations and other reasons.
For
example, most commodity exchanges limit the fluctuations in Futures
Contracts prices during a single day by regulations referred to as “daily
limits.” During a single day, no trades may be executed at prices beyond the
daily limit. Once the price of a Futures Contract has increased or
decreased by an amount equal to the daily limit, positions in the contracts
can
neither be taken nor liquidated unless the traders are willing to effect trades
at or within the specified daily limit. Such market conditions could prevent
US12OF from promptly liquidating its positions in Futures
Contracts. During the nine month period ended September 30, 2008,
US12OF was not forced to purchase or liquidate any of its positions while daily
limits were in effect; however, US12OF cannot predict whether such an event
may
occur in the future.
To
date,
all of US12OF’s expenses, including its organizational and offering expenses
related to the initial offering of its units, have been paid by the General
Partner. Fees and expenses associated with the registration of units with the
SEC subsequent to the initial offering will be borne by US12OF. In addition,
fees and expenses (including directors’ and officers’ liability
insurance) of the independent directors of the General Partner, the management
fee paid to the General Partner, certain tax reporting fees, brokerage fees
and
licensing fees will be paid directly by US12OF.
In
addition, the General Partner, though under no obligation to do so, has agreed
to pay certain costs for tax reporting and audit expenses normally borne by
US12OF to the extent that such expenses exceed 0.15% (15 basis points) of its
NAV, on an annualized basis, until December 31, 2008. The General Partner has
no
obligation to continue such payment into subsequent years.
If the
General Partner and US12OF are unsuccessful in raising sufficient funds to
cover
US12OF’s expenses or in locating any other source of funding, US12OF will
terminate and investors may lose all or part of their investment.
Market
Risk
Trading
in Futures Contracts and Other Crude Oil-Related Investments, such as
forwards, involves US12OF entering into contractual commitments to purchase
or sell oil at a specified date in the future. The gross or face amount of
the contracts will significantly exceed US12OF’s future cash requirements
since US12OF intends to close out its open positions prior to settlement. As
a
result, US12OF is generally only subject to the risk of loss
arising from the change in value of the contracts. US12OF considers the “fair
value” of its derivative instruments to be the unrealized gain or loss on the
contracts. The market risk associated with US12OF’s commitments to purchase oil
is limited to the gross face amount of the contracts held. However, should
US12OF enter into a contractual commitment to sell oil, it would be required
to
make delivery of the oil at the contract price, repurchase the contract at
prevailing prices or settle in cash. Since there are no limits on the future
price of oil, the market risk to US12OF could be unlimited.
US12OF’s
exposure to market risk depends on a number of factors, including the
markets for oil, the volatility of interest rates and foreign exchange rates,
the liquidity of the Futures Contracts and Other Crude Oil-Related
Investments markets and the relationships among the contracts held by US12OF.
The limited experience that US12OF has had in utilizing its model to trade
in Crude Oil Interests in a manner intended to track the changes in the spot
price of crude oil, as well as drastic market occurrences, could ultimately
lead
to the loss of all or substantially all of an investor’s capital.
Credit
Risk
When
US12OF enters into Futures Contracts and Other Crude Oil-Related
Investments, it is exposed to the credit risk that the counterparty will not
be
able to meet its obligations. The counterparty for the Futures Contracts
traded on the NYMEX and on most other foreign futures exchanges is the
clearinghouse associated with the particular exchange. In general,
clearinghouses are backed by their members who may be required to share in
the
financial burden resulting from the nonperformance of one of their members
and,
therefore, this additional member support should significantly reduce credit
risk. Some foreign exchanges are not backed by their clearinghouse members
but
may be backed by a consortium of banks or other financial institutions. There
can be no assurance that any counterparty, clearinghouse, or their members
or
their financial backers will satisfy their obligations to US12OF in such
circumstances.
The
General Partner attempts to manage the credit risk of US12OF by following
various trading limitations and policies. In particular, US12OF generally posts
margin and/or holds liquid assets that are approximately equal to the face
amount of its obligations to counterparties under the Futures Contracts and
Other Crude Oil-Related Investments it holds. The General Partner has
implemented procedures that include, but are not limited to, executing and
clearing trades only with creditworthy parties and/or requiring the posting
of
collateral or margin by such parties for the benefit of US12OF to limit its
credit exposure. UBS Securities LLC, US12OF’s commodity broker, or any other
broker that may be retained by US12OF in the future, when acting as US12OF’s
futures commission merchant in accepting orders to purchase or sell Futures
Contracts on United States exchanges, is required by CFTC regulations
to separately account for and segregate as belonging to US12OF, all assets
of
US12OF relating to domestic Futures Contracts trading. These futures commission
merchants are not allowed to commingle US12OF’s assets with its other assets. In
addition, the CFTC requires commodity brokers to hold in a secure account the
US12OF assets related to foreign Futures Contracts trading.
27
As
of
September 30, 2008, US12OF had deposits in domestic and foreign financial
institutions, including cash investments in money market funds, in the amount
of
$6,274,380. This amount is subject to loss should these institutions cease
operations.
Off
Balance Sheet Financing
As
of
September 30, 2008, US12OF has no loan guarantee, credit support or other
off-balance sheet arrangements of any kind other than agreements entered into
in
the normal course of business, which may include indemnification provisions
relating to certain risks that service providers undertake in performing
services which are in the best interests of US12OF. While US12OF’s exposure
under these indemnification provisions cannot be estimated, they are not
expected to have a material impact on US12OF’s financial position.
Redemption
Basket Obligation
In
order
to meet its investment objective and pay its contractual obligations described
below, US12OF requires liquidity to redeem units, which redemptions must be
in blocks of 100,000 units called “Redemption Baskets.” US12OF has to date
satisfied this obligation by paying from the cash or cash equivalents it holds
or through the sale of its Treasuries in an amount proportionate to the number
of units being redeemed.
Contractual
Obligations
US12OF’s
primary contractual obligations are with the General Partner. In return for
its
services, the General Partner is entitled to a management fee calculated as
a
fixed percentage of US12OF’s NAV, currently 0.60% of US12OF’s NAV for its
average net assets.
The
General Partner agreed to pay the start-up costs associated with the
formation of US12OF, primarily its legal, accounting and other costs in
connection with the General Partner’s registration with the CFTC as a CPO and
the registration and listing of US12OF and its units with the SEC, FINRA
and the AMEX, respectively. However, offering costs incurred in connection
with
registering and listing additional units of US12OF are directly borne on an
ongoing basis by US12OF, and not by the General Partner.
The
General Partner pays the fees of US12OF’s marketing agent, ALPS
Distributors, Inc., and the fees of the custodian and transfer agent, Brown
Brothers Harriman & Co. (“BBH&Co.”), as well as BBH&Co.’s fees for
performing administrative services, including in connection with the preparation
of US12OF’s condensed financial statements and its SEC and CFTC reports. The
General Partner and US12OF have also entered into a licensing
agreement with the NYMEX pursuant to which US12OF and the affiliated funds
managed by the General Partner pay a licensing fee to the NYMEX. The General
Partner also pays any fees for implementation of services and base service
fees
charged by the accounting firm responsible for preparing US12OF’s tax reporting
forms; however, US12OF pays the fees and expenses associated with its tax
accounting and reporting requirements. In
addition, the General Partner, though under no obligation to do so, has agreed
to pay certain costs for tax reporting and audit expenses normally borne by
US12OF to the extent that such expenses exceed 0.15% (15 basis points) of its
NAV, on an annualized basis, until December 31, 2008. The General Partner has
no
obligation to continue such payment into subsequent years.
28
In
addition to the General Partner’s management fee, US12OF pays its brokerage fees
(including fees to a futures commission merchant), over-the-counter dealer
spreads, any licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, and,
subsequent to the initial offering, registration and other fees paid to the
SEC,
FINRA, or other regulatory agencies in connection with the offer and sale of
units, as well as legal, printing, accounting and other expenses associated
therewith, and extraordinary expenses. The latter are expenses not incurred
in
the ordinary course of US12OF’s business, including expenses relating to the
indemnification of any person against liabilities and obligations to the extent
permitted by law and under the LP Agreement, the bringing or defending of
actions in law or in equity or otherwise conducting litigation and incurring
legal expenses and the settlement of claims and litigation. Commission payments
to a futures commission merchant are on a contract-by-contract, or round turn,
basis. US12OF also pays a portion of the fees and expenses of the
independent directors of the General Partner. See Note 3 to the Notes
to Condensed Financial Statements (Unaudited).
The
parties cannot anticipate the amount of payments that will be required under
these arrangements for future periods, as US12OF’s NAVs and trading levels to
meet its investment objectives will not be known until a future date. These
agreements are effective for a specific term agreed upon by the parties with
an
option to renew, or, in some cases, are in effect for the duration of US12OF’s
existence. Either party may terminate these agreements earlier for certain
reasons described in the agreements.
Item 3.
Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market
Risk.
Over-the-Counter
Derivatives (Including Spreads and Straddles)
In
the
future, US12OF may purchase over-the-counter contracts. Unlike most of the
exchange-traded Futures Contracts or exchange-traded options on such futures,
each party to an over-the-counter contract bears the credit risk that the other
party may not be able to perform its obligations under its
contract.
Some
crude oil-based derivatives transactions contain fairly generic terms and
conditions and are available from a wide range of participants. Other crude
oil-based derivatives have highly customized terms and conditions and are not
as
widely available. Many of these over-the-counter contracts are cash-settled
forwards for the future delivery of crude oil- or petroleum-based fuels that
have terms similar to the Futures Contracts. Others take the form of “swaps” in
which the two parties exchange cash flows based on pre-determined formulas
tied
to the spot price of crude oil, forward crude oil prices or crude oil
futures prices. For example, US12OF may enter into over-the-counter derivative
contracts whose value will be tied to changes in the difference between
the spot price of light, sweet crude oil, the price of Futures
Contracts traded on the NYMEX and the prices of other Futures Contracts
that may be invested in by US12OF.
To
protect itself from the credit risk that arises in connection with such
contracts, US12OF may enter into agreements with each counterparty that provide
for the netting of its overall exposure to such counterparty, such as the
agreements published by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association,
Inc. US12OF also may require that the counterparty be highly rated and/or
provide collateral or other credit support to address US12OF’s exposure to the
counterparty. In addition, it is also possible for US12OF and its counterparty
to agree to clear their agreement through an established futures clearing house
such as those connected to the NYMEX or the ICE Futures. In that event, US12OF
would no longer have credit risk of its original counterparty, as the
clearinghouse would now be US12OF’s counterparty. US12OF would still retain any
price risk associated with its transaction.
The
creditworthiness of each potential counterparty is assessed by the General
Partner. The General Partner assesses or reviews, as appropriate, the
creditworthiness of each potential or existing counterparty to an
over-the-counter contract pursuant to guidelines approved by the General
Partner’s board of directors. Furthermore, the General Partner on behalf of
US12OF only enters into over-the-counter contracts with (a) members of the
Federal Reserve System or foreign banks with branches regulated by the Federal
Reserve Board; (b) primary dealers in U.S. government securities; (c)
broker-dealers; (d) commodity futures merchants; or (e) affiliates of the
foregoing. Existing counterparties are also reviewed periodically by the General
Partner.
US12OF
anticipates that the use of Other Crude Oil-Related Investments together with
its investments in Futures Contracts will produce price and total return results
that closely track the investment goals of US12OF.
29
US12OF
may employ spreads or straddles in its trading to mitigate the differences
in
its investment portfolio and its goal of tracking the price of the
Benchmark Futures Contracts. US12OF would use a spread when it chooses to
take simultaneous long and short positions in futures written on the same
underlying asset, but with different delivery months. The effect of holding
such
combined positions is to adjust the sensitivity of US12OF to changes in the
price relationship between futures contracts which will expire sooner and those
that will expire later. US12OF would use such a spread if the General Partner
felt that taking such long and short positions, when combined with the rest
of
its holdings, would more closely track the investment goals of US12OF, or if
the
General Partner felt it would lead to an overall lower cost of trading to
achieve a given level of economic exposure to movements in oil prices. US12OF
would enter into a straddle when it chooses to take an option position
consisting of a long (or short) position in both a call option and put option.
The economic effect of holding certain combinations of put options and call
options can be very similar to that of owning the underlying futures contracts.
US12OF would make use of such a straddle approach if, in the opinion of the
General Partner, the resulting combination would more closely track the
investment goals of US12OF or if it would lead to an overall lower cost of
trading to achieve a given level of economic exposure to movements in oil
prices.
During
the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, US12OF did not employ any
hedging methods such as those described above since all of its investments
were
made over an exchange. Therefore, US12OF was not exposed to counterparty risk.
Disclosure
Controls and Procedures
US12OF
maintains disclosure controls and procedures that are designed to ensure that
material information required to be disclosed in US12OF’s periodic reports
filed or submitted under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, is
recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time period specified
in
the SEC’s rules and forms.
The
duly
appointed officers of the General Partner, including its chief executive
officer and chief financial officer, who perform functions equivalent
to those of a principal executive officer and principal financial officer of
US12OF if US12OF had any officers, have evaluated the effectiveness of US12OF’s
disclosure controls and procedures and have concluded that the disclosure
controls and procedures of US12OF have been effective as of the end of the
period covered by this
quarterly report.
Change
in Internal Control Over Financial Reporting
There
were no changes in US12OF’s internal control over financial reporting during
US12OF’s last fiscal quarter that have materially affected, or are reasonably
likely to materially affect, US12OF’s internal control over financial
reporting.
30
Part
II. OTHER
INFORMATION
Item
1. Legal Proceedings.
Not
applicable.
Item
1A. Risk Factors.
There
has
not been a material change from the risk factors previously disclosed in
US12OF's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31,
2007.
Item
2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of
Proceeds.
Not
applicable.
Item
3. Defaults Upon Senior Securities.
Not
applicable.
Item
4. Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders.
Not
applicable.
Item 5.
Other Information.
Monthly
Account Statements
Pursuant
to the requirement under part 4.22 of the Commodity Exchange Act, each month
US12OF publishes an account statement for its unitholders, which includes a
Statement of Income (Loss) and a Statement of Changes in NAV. The account
statement is filed with the SEC on a current report on Form 8-K pursuant to
Section 13 or 15(d) of the Exchange Act and posted each month on US12OF’s
website at www.unitedstates12monthoilfund.com.
Listed
below are the exhibits which are filed or furnished as part of this quarterly
report on Form 10-Q (according to the number assigned to them in Item 601
of Regulation S-K):
Exhibit
|
|
Number
|
Description
of Document
|
31.1*
|
Certification
by Principal Executive Officer Pursuant to Section 302 of the
Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
|
31.2*
|
Certification
by Principal Financial Officer Pursuant to Section 302 of the
Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
|
32.1**
|
Certification
by Principal Executive Officer Pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350,
as
Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
32.2**
|
Certification
by Principal Financial Officer Pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350,
as
Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
* |
Filed
herewith
|
** |
Furnished
herewith
|
31
SIGNATURES
Pursuant
to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant
has
duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto
duly authorized.
By:
|
United
States Commodity Funds LLC, its general partner
|
(formerly
known as Victoria Bay Asset Management, LLC)
|
|
By:
|
/s/ Nicholas D. Gerber |
Nicholas
D. Gerber
|
|
Chief
Executive Officer
|
|
Date: November
14, 2008
|
|
By:
|
/s/ Howard Mah |
Howard
Mah
|
|
Chief
Financial Officer
|
|
Date: November
14, 2008
|
32