United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP - Quarter Report: 2012 September (Form 10-Q)
Table of Contents
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 10-Q
x | Quarterly report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2012. |
OR
¨ | Transition report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for the transition period from to . |
Commission File Number: 001-33859
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Delaware | 26-0431897 | |
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) |
(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.) |
1999 Harrison Street, Suite 1530
Oakland, California 94612
(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip code)
(510) 522-9600
(Registrants telephone number, including area code)
N/A
(Former name, former address and former fiscal year, if changed since last report)
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. x Yes ¨ No
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Website, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files). x Yes ¨ No
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, or a smaller reporting company. See the definitions of large accelerated filer, accelerated filer and smaller reporting company in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
Large accelerated filer |
¨ |
Accelerated filer |
x | |||
Non-accelerated filer |
¨ (Do not check if a smaller reporting company) |
Smaller reporting company |
¨ |
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). ¨ Yes x No
Table of Contents
UNITED STATES 12 MONTH OIL FUND, LP
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Item 1. | Condensed Financial Statements. |
Index to Condensed Financial Statements
1
Table of Contents
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP
Condensed Statements of Financial Condition
At September 30, 2012 (Unaudited) and December 31, 2011
September 30, 2012 | December 31, 2011 | |||||||
Assets |
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Cash and cash equivalents (Note 5) |
$ | 103,067,786 | $ | 123,736,412 | ||||
Equity in UBS Securities LLC trading accounts: |
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Cash and cash equivalents |
12,212,476 | 42,136,549 | ||||||
Unrealized gain on open commodity futures contracts |
91,920 | 4,002,120 | ||||||
Dividend receivable |
2,220 | 1,916 | ||||||
Interest receivable |
18 | 14 | ||||||
Other assets |
116,298 | 127,440 | ||||||
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Total assets |
$ | 115,490,718 | $ | 170,004,451 | ||||
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Liabilities and Partners Capital |
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Investment payable |
$ | | $ | 33 | ||||
Professional fees payable |
282,160 | 407,121 | ||||||
General Partner management fees payable (Note 3) |
60,447 | 88,691 | ||||||
Brokerage commissions payable |
4,202 | 6,022 | ||||||
Other liabilities |
8,585 | 12,704 | ||||||
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Total liabilities |
355,394 | 514,571 | ||||||
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Commitments and Contingencies (Notes 3, 4, and 5) |
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Partners Capital |
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General Partner |
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Limited Partners |
115,135,324 | 169,489,880 | ||||||
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Total Partners Capital |
115,135,324 | 169,489,880 | ||||||
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Total liabilities and partners capital |
$ | 115,490,718 | $ | 170,004,451 | ||||
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Limited Partners units outstanding |
2,850,000 | 3,900,000 | ||||||
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Net asset value per unit |
$ | 40.40 | $ | 43.46 | ||||
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Market value per unit |
$ | 40.32 | $ | 43.48 | ||||
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See accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
2
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United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP
Condensed Schedule of Investments (Unaudited)
At September 30, 2012
Number of Contracts |
Unrealized Gain (Loss) on Open Commodity Contracts |
% of Partners Capital |
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Open Futures Contracts - Long |
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United States Contracts |
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NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL November 2012 contracts, expiring October 2012 |
102 | $ | 224,660 | 0.19 | ||||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL December 2012 contracts, expiring November 2012 |
103 | 29,750 | 0.03 | |||||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL January 2013 contracts, expiring December 2012 |
103 | (102,150 | ) | (0.09 | ) | |||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL February 2013 contracts, expiring January 2013 |
102 | (130,520 | ) | (0.11 | ) | |||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL March 2013 contracts, expiring February 2013 |
103 | (120,030 | ) | (0.10 | ) | |||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL April 2013 contracts, expiring March 2013 |
103 | (263,520 | ) | (0.23 | ) | |||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL May 2013 contracts, expiring April 2013 |
103 | (216,050 | ) | (0.19 | ) | |||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL June 2013 contracts, expiring May 2013 |
102 | 72,130 | 0.06 | |||||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL July 2013 contracts, expiring June 2013 |
103 | 557,420 | 0.48 | |||||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL August 2013 contracts, expiring July 2013 |
103 | 494,850 | 0.43 | |||||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL September 2013 contracts, expiring August 2013 |
103 | (162,870 | ) | (0.14 | ) | |||||||
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures CL October 2013 contracts, expiring September 2013 |
102 | (291,750 | ) | (0.25 | ) | |||||||
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Total Open Futures Contracts |
1,232 | $ | 91,920 | 0.08 | ||||||||
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Principal Amount |
Market Value |
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Cash Equivalents |
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United States Treasury Obligation |
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U.S. Treasury Bill, 0.09%, 10/11/2012 |
$ | 8,000,000 | $ | 7,999,802 | 6.95 | |||||||
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United States - Money Market Funds |
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Fidelity Institutional Government Portfolio - Class I |
10,161,683 | 10,161,683 | 8.83 | |||||||||
Goldman Sachs Financial Square Funds - Government Fund - Class SL |
26,452,445 | 26,452,445 | 22.97 | |||||||||
Morgan Stanley Institutional Liquidity Fund - Government Portfolio |
30,533,728 | 30,533,728 | 26.52 | |||||||||
Wells Fargo Advantage Government Money Market Fund - Class I |
25,000,493 | 25,000,493 | 21.71 | |||||||||
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Total Money Market Funds |
92,148,349 | 80.03 | ||||||||||
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Total Cash Equivalents |
$ | 100,148,151 | 86.98 | |||||||||
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See accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
3
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United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP
Condensed Statements of Operations (Unaudited)
For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011
Three months ended September 30, 2012 |
Three months ended September 30, 2011 |
Nine
months ended September 30, 2012 |
Nine
months ended September 30, 2011 |
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Income |
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Gain (loss) on trading of commodity futures contracts: |
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Realized gain (loss) on closed positions |
$ | 227,490 | $ | (3,150,010 | ) | $ | (3,628,560 | ) | $ | 18,142,650 | ||||||
Change in unrealized gain (loss) on open positions |
8,554,180 | (37,460,980 | ) | (3,910,200 | ) | (51,962,180 | ) | |||||||||
Dividend income |
5,988 | 3,442 | 20,398 | 21,476 | ||||||||||||
Interest income |
3,078 | 3,445 | 7,740 | 5,026 | ||||||||||||
Other income |
2,100 | 2,800 | 10,500 | 26,800 | ||||||||||||
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Total income (loss) |
8,792,836 | (40,601,303 | ) | (7,500,122 | ) | (33,766,228 | ) | |||||||||
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Expenses |
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General Partner management fees (Note 3) |
188,943 | 307,421 | 652,013 | 1,001,280 | ||||||||||||
Professional fees |
33,309 | 21,849 | 108,932 | 222,623 | ||||||||||||
Brokerage commissions |
6,319 | 5,819 | 17,663 | 23,061 | ||||||||||||
Other expenses |
20,134 | 23,423 | 51,110 | 72,583 | ||||||||||||
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Total expenses |
248,705 | 358,512 | 829,718 | 1,319,547 | ||||||||||||
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Net income (loss) |
$ | 8,544,131 | $ | (40,959,815 | ) | $ | (8,329,840 | ) | $ | (35,085,775 | ) | |||||
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Net income (loss) per limited partnership unit |
$ | 2.50 | $ | (8.45 | ) | $ | (3.06 | ) | $ | (7.57 | ) | |||||
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Net income (loss) per weighted average limited partnership unit |
$ | 2.76 | $ | (8.20 | ) | $ | (2.46 | ) | $ | (6.94 | ) | |||||
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Weighted average limited partnership units outstanding |
3,093,478 | 4,995,652 | 3,389,051 | 5,052,015 | ||||||||||||
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See accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
4
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United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP
Condensed Statement of Changes in Partners Capital (Unaudited)
For the nine months ended September 30, 2012
General Partner | Limited Partners | Total | ||||||||||
Balances, at December 31, 2011 |
$ | | $ | 169,489,880 | $ | 169,489,880 | ||||||
Addition of 2,100,000 partnership units |
| 84,188,154 | 84,188,154 | |||||||||
Redemption of 3,150,000 partnership units |
| (130,212,870 | ) | (130,212,870 | ) | |||||||
Net loss |
| (8,329,840 | ) | (8,329,840 | ) | |||||||
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Balances, at September 30, 2012 |
$ | | $ | 115,135,324 | $ | 115,135,324 | ||||||
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Net Asset Value Per Unit: |
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At December 31, 2011 |
$ | 43.46 | ||||||||||
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At September 30, 2012 |
$ | 40.40 | ||||||||||
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See accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
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United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP
Condensed Statements of Cash Flows (Unaudited)
For the nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011
Nine
months ended September 30, 2012 |
Nine
months ended September 30, 2011 |
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Cash Flows from Operating Activities: |
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Net loss |
$ | (8,329,840 | ) | $ | (35,085,775 | ) | ||
Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash provided by (used in) operating activities: |
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(Increase) decrease in commodity futures trading account - cash and cash equivalents |
29,924,073 | (42,720,697 | ) | |||||
Unrealized loss on open futures contracts |
3,910,200 | 51,962,180 | ||||||
(Increase) decrease in dividend receivable |
(304 | ) | 3,077 | |||||
Increase in interest receivable |
(4 | ) | | |||||
Decrease in other assets |
11,142 | 6,469 | ||||||
Decrease in investment payable |
(33 | ) | | |||||
Decrease in professional fees payable |
(124,961 | ) | (27,571 | ) | ||||
Increase (decrease) in General Partner management fees payable |
(28,244 | ) | 13,623 | |||||
Increase (decrease) in brokerage commissions payable |
(1,820 | ) | 1,140 | |||||
Increase (decrease) in other liabilities |
(4,119 | ) | 6,148 | |||||
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Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities |
25,356,090 | (25,841,406 | ) | |||||
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Cash Flows from Financing Activities: |
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Addition of partnership units |
84,188,154 | 113,305,191 | ||||||
Redemption of partnership units |
(130,212,870 | ) | (81,014,510 | ) | ||||
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Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities |
(46,024,716 | ) | 32,290,681 | |||||
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Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents |
(20,668,626 | ) | 6,449,275 | |||||
Cash and Cash Equivalents, beginning of period |
123,736,412 | 152,952,590 | ||||||
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Cash and Cash Equivalents, end of period |
$ | 103,067,786 | $ | 159,401,865 | ||||
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See accompanying notes to condensed financial statements.
6
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United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP
Notes to Condensed Financial Statements
For the period ended September 30, 2012 (Unaudited)
NOTE 1 ORGANIZATION AND BUSINESS
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (US12OF) was organized as a limited partnership under the laws of the state of Delaware on June 27, 2007. US12OF is a commodity pool that issues limited partnership units (units) that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (the NYSE Arca). Prior to November 25, 2008, US12OFs units traded on the American Stock Exchange (the AMEX). US12OF will continue in perpetuity, unless terminated sooner upon the occurrence of one or more events as described in its Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership dated as of December 4, 2007 (the LP Agreement). The investment objective of US12OF is for the daily changes in percentage terms of its units per unit net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the average of the prices of the 12 futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (the NYMEX), consisting of the near month contract to expire and the contracts for the following 11 months for a total of 12 consecutive months contracts, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case it will be measured by the futures contract that is the next month contract to expire and the contracts for the following 11 consecutive months (the Benchmark Futures Contracts), less US12OFs expenses. When calculating the daily movement of the average price of the 12 contracts, each contract month will be equally weighted. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that the per unit NAV will equal, in dollar terms, the spot price of light, sweet crude oil or any particular futures contract based on light, sweet crude oil. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that its per unit NAV will reflect the percentage change of the price of any particular futures contracts as measured over a time period greater than one day. United States Commodity Funds LLC (USCF), the general partner of US12OF, believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Oil Futures Contracts (as defined below) and Other Oil-Related Investments (as defined below). US12OF accomplishes its objective through investments in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil and other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures or other U.S. and foreign exchanges (collectively, Oil Futures Contracts) and other oil related investments such as cash-settled options on Oil Futures Contracts, forward contracts for oil, cleared swap contracts and over-the-counter transactions that are based on the price of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels, Oil Futures Contracts and indices based on the foregoing (collectively, Other Oil-Related Investments). As of September 30, 2012, US12OF held 1,232 Oil Futures Contracts for light, sweet crude oil traded on the NYMEX and did not hold any Oil Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures.
US12OF commenced investment operations on December 6, 2007 and has a fiscal year ending on December 31. USCF is responsible for the management of US12OF. USCF is a member of the National Futures Association (the NFA) and became a commodity pool operator registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (the CFTC) effective December 1, 2005. USCF is also the general partner of the United States Oil Fund, LP (USOF), the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (USNG), the United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA) and the United States Diesel-Heating Oil Fund, LP (formerly, the United States Heating Oil Fund, LP) (USDHO), which listed their limited partnership units on the AMEX under the ticker symbols USO on April 10, 2006, UNG on April 18, 2007, UGA on February 26, 2008 and UHN on April 9, 2008, respectively. As a result of the acquisition of the AMEX by NYSE Euronext, each of USOFs, USNGs, UGAs and USDHOs units commenced trading on the NYSE Arca on November 25, 2008. USCF is also the general partner of the United States Short Oil Fund, LP (USSO), the United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund, LP (US12NG) and the United States Brent Oil Fund, LP (USBO), which listed their limited partnership units on the NYSE Arca under the ticker symbols DNO on September 24, 2009, UNL on November 18, 2009 and BNO on June 2, 2010, respectively. USCF is also the sponsor of the United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI), the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER), the United States Agriculture Index Fund (USAG) and the United States Metals Index Fund (USMI), each a series of the United States Commodity Index Funds Trust. USCI, CPER, USAG and USMI listed their units on the NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol USCI on August 10, 2010, CPER on November 15, 2011, USAG on April 13, 2012 and USMI on June 19, 2012, respectively. All funds listed previously are referred to collectively herein as the Related Public Funds. USCF has also filed registration statements to register units of the United States Sugar Fund (USSF), the United States Natural Gas Double Inverse Fund (UNGD), the United States Gasoil Fund (USGO) and the United States Asian Commodities Basket Fund (UAC), each a series of the United States Commodity Funds Trust I, and the US Golden Currency Fund (HARD), a series of the United States Currency Funds Trust.
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Table of Contents
Effective February 29, 2012, US12OF issues units to certain authorized purchasers (Authorized Purchasers) by offering baskets consisting of 50,000 units (Creation Baskets) through ALPS Distributors, Inc., as the marketing agent (the Marketing Agent). Prior to February 29, 2012, US12OF issued units to Authorized Purchasers by offering baskets consisting of 100,000 units through the Marketing Agent. The purchase price for a Creation Basket is based upon the NAV of a unit calculated shortly after the close of the core trading session on the NYSE Arca on the day the order to create the basket is properly received.
From July 1, 2011 through December 31, 2012, the applicable transaction fee paid by Authorized Purchasers is $350 to US12OF for each order they place to create or redeem one or more baskets (Redemption Baskets); prior to July 1, 2011, this fee was $1,000. Beginning on January 1, 2013 and after, Authorized Purchasers will pay a transaction fee of $1,000 for each order they place to create or redeem one or more Redemption Baskets. Units may be purchased or sold on a nationally recognized securities exchange in smaller increments than a Creation Basket or Redemption Basket. Units purchased or sold on a nationally recognized securities exchange are not purchased or sold at the per unit NAV of US12OF but rather at market prices quoted on such exchange.
On December 4, 2007, US12OF initially registered 11,000,000 units on Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC). On December 6, 2007, US12OF listed its units on the AMEX under the ticker symbol USL. On that day, US12OF established its initial per unit NAV by setting the price at $50.00 and issued 300,000 units in exchange for $15,000,000. US12OF also commenced investment operations on December 6, 2007, by purchasing Oil Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX based on light, sweet crude oil. As of September 30, 2012, US12OF had registered a total of 111,000,000 units.
The accompanying unaudited condensed financial statements have been prepared in accordance with Rule 10-01 of Regulation S-X promulgated by the SEC and, therefore, do not include all information and footnote disclosure required under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) in the United States of America. The financial information included herein is unaudited; however, such financial information reflects all adjustments, consisting only of normal recurring adjustments, which are, in the opinion of USCF, necessary for the fair presentation of the condensed financial statements for the interim period.
NOTE 2 SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES
Revenue Recognition
Commodity futures contracts, forward contracts, physical commodities, and related options are recorded on the trade date. All such transactions are recorded on the identified cost basis and marked to market daily. Unrealized gains or losses on open contracts are reflected in the condensed statements of financial condition and represent the difference between the original contract amount and the market value (as determined by exchange settlement prices for futures contracts and related options and cash dealer prices at a predetermined time for forward contracts, physical commodities, and their related options) as of the last business day of the year or as of the last date of the condensed financial statements. Changes in the unrealized gains or losses between periods are reflected in the condensed statements of operations. US12OF earns interest on its assets denominated in U.S. dollars on deposit with the futures commission merchant at the 90-day Treasury bill rate. In addition, US12OF earns income on funds held at the custodian or futures commission merchant at prevailing market rates earned on such investments.
Brokerage Commissions
Brokerage commissions on all open commodity futures contracts are accrued on a full-turn basis.
Income Taxes
US12OF is not subject to federal income taxes; each partner reports his/her allocable share of income, gain, loss deductions or credits on his/her own income tax return.
In accordance with GAAP, US12OF is required to determine whether a tax position is more likely than not to be sustained upon examination by the applicable taxing authority, including resolution of any tax related appeals or litigation processes, based on the technical merits of the position. US12OF files an income tax return in the U.S. federal jurisdiction, and may file income tax returns in various U.S. states. US12OF is not subject to income tax return examinations by major taxing authorities for years before 2008. The tax benefit recognized is measured as the largest amount of benefit that has a greater than fifty percent likelihood of being realized upon ultimate settlement. De-recognition of a tax benefit previously recognized results in US12OF recording a tax liability that reduces net assets. However, US12OFs conclusions regarding this policy may be subject to review and adjustment at a later date based on factors including, but not limited to, on-going analysis of and changes to tax laws, regulations and interpretations thereof. US12OF recognizes interest accrued related to unrecognized tax benefits and penalties related to unrecognized tax benefits in income tax fees payable, if assessed. No interest expense or penalties have been recognized as of and for the period ended September 30, 2012.
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Creations and Redemptions
Effective February 29, 2012, Authorized Purchasers may purchase Creation Baskets or redeem Redemption Baskets only in blocks of 50,000 units at a price equal to the NAV of the units calculated shortly after the close of the core trading session on the NYSE Arca on the day the order is placed. Prior to February 29, 2012, Authorized Purchasers could only purchase Creation Baskets or redeem Redemption Baskets in blocks of 100,000 units.
US12OF receives or pays the proceeds from units sold or redeemed within three business days after the trade date of the purchase or redemption. The amounts due from Authorized Purchasers are reflected in US12OFs condensed statements of financial condition as receivable for units sold, and amounts payable to Authorized Purchasers upon redemption are reflected as payable for units redeemed.
Partnership Capital and Allocation of Partnership Income and Losses
Profit or loss shall be allocated among the partners of US12OF in proportion to the number of units each partner holds as of the close of each month. USCF may revise, alter or otherwise modify this method of allocation as described in the LP Agreement.
Calculation of Per Unit Net Asset Value
US12OFs per unit NAV is calculated on each NYSE Arca trading day by taking the current market value of its total assets, subtracting any liabilities and dividing that amount by the total number of units outstanding. US12OF uses the closing price for the contracts on the relevant exchange on that day to determine the value of contracts held on such exchange.
Net Income (Loss) Per Unit
Net income (loss) per unit is the difference between the per unit NAV at the beginning of each period and at the end of each period. The weighted average number of units outstanding was computed for purposes of disclosing net income (loss) per weighted average unit. The weighted average units are equal to the number of units outstanding at the end of the period, adjusted proportionately for units added and redeemed based on the amount of time the units were outstanding during such period. There were no units held by USCF at September 30, 2012.
Offering Costs
Offering costs incurred in connection with the registration of additional units after the initial registration of units are borne by US12OF. These costs include registration fees paid to regulatory agencies and all legal, accounting, printing and other expenses associated with such offerings. These costs are accounted for as a deferred charge and thereafter amortized to expense over twelve months on a straight-line basis or a shorter period if warranted.
Cash Equivalents
Cash equivalents include money market funds and overnight deposits or time deposits with original maturity dates of six months or less.
Reclassification
Certain amounts in the accompanying condensed financial statements were reclassified to conform to the current presentation.
Use of Estimates
The preparation of condensed financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires USCF to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amount of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the condensed financial statements, and the reported amounts of the revenue and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results may differ from those estimates and assumptions.
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Table of Contents
NOTE 3 FEES PAID BY THE FUND AND RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS
USCF Management Fee
Under the LP Agreement, USCF is responsible for investing the assets of US12OF in accordance with the objectives and policies of US12OF. In addition, USCF has arranged for one or more third parties to provide administrative, custody, accounting, transfer agency and other necessary services to US12OF. For these services, US12OF is contractually obligated to pay USCF a fee, which is paid monthly, equal to 0.60% per annum of average daily total net assets.
Ongoing Registration Fees and Other Offering Expenses
US12OF pays all costs and expenses associated with the ongoing registration of its units subsequent to the initial offering. These costs include registration or other fees paid to regulatory agencies in connection with the offer and sale of units, and all legal, accounting, printing and other expenses associated with such offer and sale. For the nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011, US12OF incurred $14,030 and $7,080, respectively, in registration fees and other offering expenses.
Directors Fees and Expenses
US12OF is responsible for paying its portion of the directors and officers liability insurance for US12OF and the Related Public Funds and the fees and expenses of the independent directors who also serve as audit committee members of US12OF and the Related Public Funds organized as limited partnerships and, as of July 8, 2011, the Related Public Funds organized as a series of a Delaware statutory trust. US12OF shares the fees and expenses on a pro rata basis with each Related Public Fund, as described above, based on the relative assets of each fund computed on a daily basis. These fees and expenses for the year ending December 31, 2012 are estimated to be a total of $540,000 for US12OF and the Related Public Funds.
Licensing Fees
As discussed in Note 4 below, US12OF entered into a licensing agreement with the NYMEX on April 10, 2006, as amended on October 20, 2011. Pursuant to the agreement, through October 19, 2011, US12OF and the Related Public Funds, other than USBO, USCI, CPER, USAG and USMI, paid a licensing fee that was equal to 0.04% for the first $1,000,000,000 of combined net assets of the funds and 0.02% for combined net assets above $1,000,000,000. On and after October 20, 2011, US12OF and the Related Public Funds, other than USBO, USCI, CPER, USAG and USMI, pay a licensing fee that is equal to 0.015% on all net assets. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011, US12OF incurred $16,300 and $41,828, respectively, under this arrangement.
Investor Tax Reporting Cost
The fees and expenses associated with US12OFs audit expenses and tax accounting and reporting requirements are paid by US12OF. These costs are estimated to be $200,000 for the year ending December 31, 2012.
Other Expenses and Fees
In addition to the fees described above, US12OF pays all brokerage fees and other expenses in connection with the operation of US12OF, excluding costs and expenses paid by USCF as outlined in Note 4 below.
NOTE 4 CONTRACTS AND AGREEMENTS
US12OF is party to a marketing agent agreement, dated as of November 13, 2007, as amended from time to time, with the Marketing Agent and USCF, whereby the Marketing Agent provides certain marketing services for US12OF as outlined in the agreement. The fee of the Marketing Agent, which is borne by USCF, is equal to 0.06% on US12OFs assets up to $3 billion and 0.04% on US12OFs assets in excess of $3 billion.
The above fee does not include the following expenses, which are also borne by USCF: the cost of placing advertisements in various periodicals; web construction and development; or the printing and production of various marketing materials.
US12OF is also party to a custodian agreement, dated October 5, 2007, as amended from time to time, with Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (BBH&Co.) and USCF, whereby BBH&Co. holds investments on behalf of US12OF. USCF pays the fees of the custodian, which are determined by the parties from time to time. In addition, US12OF is party to an administrative agency agreement, dated October 5, 2007, as amended from time to time, with USCF and BBH&Co., whereby BBH&Co. acts as the administrative agent, transfer agent and registrar for US12OF. USCF also pays the fees of BBH&Co. for its services under such agreement and such fees are determined by the parties from time to time.
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Currently, USCF pays BBH&Co. for its services, in the foregoing capacities, a minimum amount of $75,000 annually for its custody, fund accounting and fund administration services rendered to US12OF and each of the Related Public Funds, as well as a $20,000 annual fee for its transfer agency services. In addition, USCF pays BBH&Co. an asset-based charge of (a) 0.06% for the first $500 million of US12OFs, USOFs, USNGs, UGAs, USDHOs, USSOs, US12NGs, USBOs, USCIs, CPERs, USAGs and USMIs combined net assets, (b) 0.0465% for US12OFs, USOFs, USNGs, UGAs, USDHOs, USSOs, US12NGs, USBOs, USCIs, CPERs, USAGs and USMIs combined net assets greater than $500 million but less than $1 billion, and (c) 0.035% once US12OFs, USOFs, USNGs, UGAs, USDHOs, USSOs, US12NGs, USBOs, USCIs, CPERs, USAGs and USMIs combined net assets exceed $1 billion. The annual minimum amount will not apply if the asset-based charge for all accounts in the aggregate exceeds $75,000. USCF also pays transaction fees ranging from $7 to $15 per transaction.
US12OF has entered into a brokerage agreement with UBS Securities LLC (UBS Securities). The agreement requires UBS Securities to provide services to US12OF in connection with the purchase and sale of Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments that may be purchased and sold by or through UBS Securities for US12OFs account. In accordance with the agreement, UBS Securities charges US12OF commissions of approximately $7 to $15 per round-turn trade, including applicable exchange and NFA fees for Oil Futures Contracts and options on Oil Futures Contracts. Such fees include those incurred when purchasing Oil Futures Contracts and options on Oil Futures Contracts when US12OF issues units as a result of a Creation Basket, as well as fees incurred when selling Oil Futures Contracts and options on Oil Futures Contracts when US12OF redeems units as a result of a Redemption Basket. Such fees are also incurred when Oil Futures Contracts and options on Oil Futures Contracts are purchased or redeemed for the purpose of rebalancing the portfolio. US12OF also incurs commissions to brokers for the purchase and sale of Oil Futures Contracts, Other Oil-Related Investments or Treasuries. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, total commissions accrued to brokers amounted to $17,663. Of this amount, approximately $5,692 was a result of rebalancing costs and approximately $11,971 was the result of trades necessitated by creation and redemption activity. By comparison, during the nine months ended September 30, 2011, total commissions accrued to brokers amounted to $23,061. Of this amount, approximately $12,217 was a result of rebalancing costs and approximately $10,844 was the result of trades necessitated by creation and redemption activity. The decrease in the total commissions accrued to brokers for the nine months ended September 30, 2012, as compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2011, was primarily a function of decreased brokerage fees due to a lower number of futures contracts being held and traded as a result of the decrease in US12OFs total net assets. The decrease in total net assets required US12OF to purchase a fewer number of Oil Futures Contracts and incur a lower amount of broker commissions. As an annualized percentage of average daily total net assets, the figure for the nine months ended September 30, 2012 represents approximately 0.01% of average daily total net assets. By comparison, the figure for the nine months ended September 30, 2011 represented approximately 0.01% of average daily total net assets. However, there can be no assurance that commission costs and portfolio turnover will not cause commission expenses to rise in future quarters.
US12OF and the NYMEX entered into a licensing agreement on April 10, 2006, as amended on October 20, 2011, whereby US12OF was granted a non-exclusive license to use certain of the NYMEXs settlement prices and service marks. Under the licensing agreement, US12OF and the Related Public Funds, other than USBO, USCI, CPER, USAG and USMI, pay the NYMEX an asset-based fee for the license, the terms of which are described in Note 3. US12OF expressly disclaims any association with the NYMEX or endorsement of US12OF by the NYMEX and acknowledges that NYMEX and New York Mercantile Exchange are registered trademarks of the NYMEX.
NOTE 5 FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, OFF-BALANCE SHEET RISKS AND CONTINGENCIES
US12OF engages in the trading of futures contracts, options on futures contracts and cleared swaps (collectively, derivatives). US12OF is exposed to both market risk, which is the risk arising from changes in the market value of the contracts, and credit risk, which is the risk of failure by another party to perform according to the terms of a contract. US12OF may enter into futures contracts and options on futures contracts to gain exposure to changes in the value of an underlying commodity. A futures contract obligates the seller to deliver (and the purchaser to accept) the future delivery of a specified quantity and type of a commodity at a specified time and place. Some futures contracts may call for physical delivery of the asset, while others are settled in cash. The contractual obligations of a buyer or seller may generally be satisfied by taking or making physical delivery of the underlying commodity or by making an offsetting sale or purchase of an identical futures contract on the same or linked exchange before the designated date of delivery.
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The purchase and sale of futures contracts, options on futures contracts and cleared swaps require margin deposits with a futures commission merchant. Additional deposits may be necessary for any loss on contract value. The Commodity Exchange Act requires a futures commission merchant to segregate all customer transactions and assets from the futures commission merchants proprietary activities.
Futures contracts and cleared swaps involve, to varying degrees, elements of market risk (specifically commodity price risk) and exposure to loss in excess of the amount of variation margin. The face or contract amounts reflect the extent of the total exposure US12OF has in the particular classes of instruments. Additional risks associated with the use of futures contracts are an imperfect correlation between movements in the price of the futures contracts and the market value of the underlying securities and the possibility of an illiquid market for a futures contract.
All of the futures contracts held by US12OF were exchange-traded through September 30, 2012. The risks associated with exchange-traded contracts are generally perceived to be less than those associated with over-the-counter transactions since, in over-the-counter transactions, a party must rely solely on the credit of its respective individual counterparties. However, in the future, if US12OF were to enter into non-exchange traded contracts, it would be subject to the credit risk associated with counterparty non-performance. The credit risk from counterparty non-performance associated with such instruments is the net unrealized gain, if any, on the transaction. US12OF has credit risk under its futures contracts since the sole counterparty to all domestic and foreign futures contracts is the clearinghouse for the exchange on which the relevant contracts are traded. In addition, US12OF bears the risk of financial failure by the clearing broker.
US12OFs cash and other property, such as short-term obligations of the United States of two years or less (Treasuries), deposited with a futures commission merchant are considered commingled with all other customer funds, subject to the futures commission merchants segregation requirements. In the event of a futures commission merchants insolvency, recovery may be limited to a pro rata share of segregated funds available. It is possible that the recovered amount could be less than the total of cash and other property deposited. The insolvency of a futures commission merchant could result in the complete loss of US12OFs assets posted with that futures commission merchant; however, the majority of US12OFs assets are held in Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents with US12OFs custodian and would not be impacted by the insolvency of a futures commission merchant. The failure or insolvency of US12OFs custodian, however, could result in a substantial loss of US12OFs assets.
USCF invests a portion of US12OFs cash in money market funds that seek to maintain a stable per unit NAV. US12OF is exposed to any risk of loss associated with an investment in such money market funds. As of September 30, 2012 and December 31, 2011, US12OF held investments in money market funds in the amounts of $92,148,349 and $107,128,288, respectively. US12OF also holds cash deposits with its custodian. Pursuant to a written agreement with BBH&Co., uninvested overnight cash balances are swept to offshore branches of U.S. regulated and domiciled banks located in Toronto, Canada, London, United Kingdom, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands and Nassau, Bahamas, which are subject to U.S. regulation and regulatory oversight. As of September 30, 2012 and December 31, 2011, US12OF held cash deposits and investments in Treasuries in the amounts of $23,131,913 and $58,744,673, respectively, with the custodian and futures commission merchant. Some or all of these amounts may be subject to loss should US12OFs custodian and/or futures commission merchant cease operations.
For derivatives, risks arise from changes in the market value of the contracts. Theoretically, US12OF is exposed to market risk equal to the value of futures contracts purchased and unlimited liability on such contracts sold short. As both a buyer and a seller of options, US12OF pays or receives a premium at the outset and then bears the risk of unfavorable changes in the price of the contract underlying the option.
US12OFs policy is to continuously monitor its exposure to market and counterparty risk through the use of a variety of financial, position and credit exposure reporting controls and procedures. In addition, US12OF has a policy of requiring review of the credit standing of each broker or counterparty with which it conducts business.
The financial instruments held by US12OF are reported in its condensed statements of financial condition at market or fair value, or at carrying amounts that approximate fair value, because of their highly liquid nature and short-term maturity.
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NOTE 6 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
The following table presents per unit performance data and other supplemental financial data for the nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011 for the unitholders. This information has been derived from information presented in the condensed financial statements.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2012 (Unaudited) |
For the nine months ended September 30, 2011 (Unaudited) |
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Per Unit Operating Performance: |
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Net asset value, beginning of period |
$ | 43.46 | $ | 42.91 | ||||
Total income (loss) |
(2.82 | ) | (7.31 | ) | ||||
Net expenses |
(0.24 | ) | (0.26 | ) | ||||
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|
|
|
|||||
Net decrease in net asset value |
(3.06 | ) | (7.57 | ) | ||||
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|
|
|
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Net asset value, end of period |
$ | 40.40 | $ | 35.34 | ||||
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|
|
|
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Total Return |
(7.04 | )% | (17.64 | )% | ||||
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|
|
|
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Ratios to Average Net Assets |
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Total income (loss) |
(5.17 | )% | (15.13 | )% | ||||
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|
|
|
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Expenses excluding management fees* |
0.16 | % | 0.19 | % | ||||
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|
|
|
|||||
Management fees* |
0.60 | % | 0.60 | % | ||||
|
|
|
|
|||||
Net income (loss) |
(5.74 | )% | (15.73 | )% | ||||
|
|
|
|
* | Annualized |
Total returns are calculated based on the change in value during the period. An individual unitholders total return and ratio may vary from the above total returns and ratios based on the timing of contributions to and withdrawals from US12OF.
NOTE 7 FAIR VALUE OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
US12OF values its investments in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification 820 Fair Value Measurements and Disclosures (ASC 820). ASC 820 defines fair value, establishes a framework for measuring fair value in generally accepted accounting principles, and expands disclosures about fair value measurement. The changes to past practice resulting from the application of ASC 820 relate to the definition of fair value, the methods used to measure fair value, and the expanded disclosures about fair value measurement. ASC 820 establishes a fair value hierarchy that distinguishes between: (1) market participant assumptions developed based on market data obtained from sources independent of US12OF (observable inputs) and (2) US12OFs own assumptions about market participant assumptions developed based on the best information available under the circumstances (unobservable inputs). The three levels defined by the ASC 820 hierarchy are as follows:
Level I Quoted prices (unadjusted) in active markets for identical assets or liabilities that the reporting entity has the ability to access at the measurement date.
Level II Inputs other than quoted prices included within Level I that are observable for the asset or liability, either directly or indirectly. Level II assets include the following: quoted prices for similar assets or liabilities in active markets, quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in markets that are not active, inputs other than quoted prices that are observable for the asset or liability, and inputs that are derived principally from or corroborated by observable market data by correlation or other means (market-corroborated inputs).
Level III Unobservable pricing input at the measurement date for the asset or liability. Unobservable inputs shall be used to measure fair value to the extent that observable inputs are not available.
In some instances, the inputs used to measure fair value might fall within different levels of the fair value hierarchy.
The level in the fair value hierarchy within which the fair value measurement in its entirety falls shall be determined based on the lowest input level that is significant to the fair value measurement in its entirety.
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The following table summarizes the valuation of US12OFs securities at September 30, 2012 using the fair value hierarchy:
At September 30, 2012 | Total | Level I | Level II | Level III | ||||||||||||
Short-Term Investments |
$ | 100,148,151 | $ | 100,148,151 | $ | | $ | | ||||||||
Exchange-Traded Futures Contracts |
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United States Contracts |
91,920 | 91,920 | | |
During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, there were no transfers between Level I and Level II.
The following table summarizes the valuation of US12OFs securities at December 31, 2011 using the fair value hierarchy:
At December 31, 2011 | Total | Level I | Level II | Level III | ||||||||||||
Short-Term Investments |
$ | 120,576,360 | $ | 120,576,360 | $ | | $ | | ||||||||
Exchange-Traded Futures Contracts |
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United States Contracts |
4,002,120 | 4,002,120 | | |
During the year ended December 31, 2011, there were no transfers between Level I and Level II.
Effective January 1, 2009, US12OF adopted the provisions of Accounting Standards Codification 815 Derivatives and Hedging, which require presentation of qualitative disclosures about objectives and strategies for using derivatives, quantitative disclosures about fair value amounts and gains and losses on derivatives.
Fair Value of Derivative Instruments
Derivatives not Accounted for as Hedging Instruments |
Condensed Statements of Financial Condition Location |
Fair Value At September 30, 2012 |
Fair Value At December 31, 2011 |
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Futures - Commodity Contracts |
Assets | $ | 91,920 | $ | 4,002,120 |
The Effect of Derivative Instruments on the Condensed Statements of Operations
For the nine months ended September 30, 2012 |
For the nine months ended September 30, 2011 |
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Derivatives not Accounted for Instruments |
Location of Gain or (Loss) on Derivatives |
Realized Gain or (Loss) on Derivatives Recognized in Income |
Change in Unrealized Gain or (Loss) on Derivatives Recognized in Income |
Realized Gain or (Loss) on Derivatives Recognized in Income |
Change in Unrealized Gain or (Loss) on Derivatives Recognized in Income |
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Futures - Commodity Contracts |
Realized gain (loss) on closed positions | $ | (3,628,560 | ) | $ | 18,142,650 | ||||||||||||
Change in unrealized loss on open positions | $ | (3,910,200 | ) | $ | (51,962,180 | ) |
NOTE 8 RECENT ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
In December 2011, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued Accounting Standards Update (ASU) No. 2011-11, Balance Sheet (Topic 210): Disclosures about Offsetting Assets and Liabilities. The amendments in ASU No. 2011-11 require an entity to disclose information about offsetting and related arrangements to enable users of its financial statements to understand the effect of those arrangements on its financial position. ASU No. 2011-11 is effective for annual reporting periods beginning on or after January 1, 2013, and interim periods within those annual periods. The guidance requires retrospective application for all comparative periods presented. USCF is currently evaluating the impact ASU No. 2011-11 will have on US12OFs financial statements.
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NOTE 9 SUBSEQUENT EVENTS
US12OF has performed an evaluation of subsequent events through the date the financial statements were issued. This evaluation did not result in any subsequent events that necessitated disclosures and/or adjustments.
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Item 2. | Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations. |
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the condensed financial statements and the notes thereto of the United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (US12OF) included elsewhere in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
Forward-Looking Information
This quarterly report on Form 10-Q, including this Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, contains forward-looking statements regarding the plans and objectives of management for future operations. This information may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause US12OFs actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and describe US12OFs future plans, strategies and expectations, are generally identifiable by use of the words may, will, should, expect, anticipate, estimate, believe, intend or project, the negative of these words, other variations on these words or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that may be incorrect, and US12OF cannot assure investors that the projections included in these forward-looking statements will come to pass. US12OFs actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.
US12OF has based the forward-looking statements included in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q on information available to it on the date of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, and US12OF assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. Although US12OF undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, investors are advised to consult any additional disclosures that US12OF may make directly to them or through reports that US12OF in the future files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC), including annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.
Introduction
US12OF, a Delaware limited partnership, is a commodity pool that issues units that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (the NYSE Arca). The investment objective of US12OF is for the daily changes in percentage terms of its units per unit net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the average of the prices of 12 futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (the NYMEX) that is the near month contract to expire and the contracts for the following 11 months for a total of 12 consecutive months contracts, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case it will be measured by the futures contract that is the next month contract to expire and the contracts for the following 11 consecutive months (the Benchmark Futures Contracts), less US12OFs expenses. Near month contract means the next contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire. Next month contract means the first contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire after the near month contract. When calculating the daily movement of the average price of the 12 contracts, each contract month will be equally weighted. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that the per unit NAV will equal, in dollar terms, the spot price of light, sweet crude oil or any particular futures contract based on light, sweet crude oil. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that its per unit NAV will reflect the percentage change of the price of any particular futures contract as measured over a time period greater than one day. The general partner of US12OF, United States Commodity Funds LLC (USCF), believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Oil Futures Contracts (as defined below) and Other Oil-Related Investments (as defined below).
US12OF invests in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures or other U.S. and foreign exchanges (collectively, Oil Futures Contracts) and other oil interests such as cash-settled options on Oil Futures Contracts, forward contracts for oil, cleared swap contracts and over-the-counter transactions that are based on the price of crude oil, other petroleum-based fuels, Oil Futures Contracts and indices based on the foregoing (collectively, Other Oil-Related Investments). For convenience and unless otherwise specified, Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments collectively are referred to as Oil Interests in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
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US12OF seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a combination of Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments such that daily changes in its per unit NAV, measured in percentage terms, will closely track the daily changes in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts, also measured in percentage terms. USCF believes the daily changes in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts have historically exhibited a close correlation with the daily changes in the spot price of light, sweet crude oil. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that the per unit NAV will equal, in dollar terms, the spot price of light, sweet crude oil or any particular futures contract based on light, sweet crude oil. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that its per unit NAV will reflect the percentage change of the price of any particular futures contract as measured over a time period greater than one day. USCF believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments.
Regulatory Disclosure
Impact of Accountability Levels, Position Limits and Price Fluctuation Limits. Futures contracts include typical and significant characteristics. Most significantly, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (the CFTC) and U.S. designated contract markets such as the NYMEX have established accountability levels and position limits on the maximum net long or net short futures contracts in commodity interests that any person or group of persons under common trading control (other than as a hedge, which an investment by US12OF is not) may hold, own or control. The net position is the difference between an individuals or firms open long contracts and open short contracts in any one commodity. In addition, most U.S.-based futures exchanges, such as the NYMEX, limit the daily price fluctuation for futures contracts. Currently, the ICE Futures imposes position and accountability limits that are similar to those imposed by U.S.-based futures exchanges but does not limit the maximum daily price fluctuation, while some other non-U.S. futures exchanges have not adopted such limits.
The accountability levels for the Benchmark Futures Contracts and other Oil Futures Contracts traded on U.S.-based futures exchanges, such as the NYMEX, are not a fixed ceiling, but rather a threshold above which the NYMEX may exercise greater scrutiny and control over an investors positions. The current accountability level for investments for any one month in the Benchmark Futures Contracts is 10,000 contracts. In addition, the NYMEX imposes an accountability level for all months of 20,000 net futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil. In addition, ICE Futures maintains accountability levels, position limits and monitoring authority for its futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil. If US12OF and the Related Public Funds (as defined below) exceed these accountability levels for investments in the futures contract for light, sweet crude oil, the NYMEX and ICE Futures will monitor such exposure and may ask for further information on their activities including the total size of all positions, investment and trading strategy, and the extent of liquidity resources of US12OF and the Related Public Funds. If deemed necessary by the NYMEX and/or ICE Futures, US12OF could be ordered to reduce its position back to the accountability level. As of September 30, 2012, US12OF held 1,232 futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil traded on the NYMEX and did not hold any Oil Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures. For the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF did not exceed accountability levels imposed by the NYMEX or ICE Futures.
Position limits differ from accountability levels in that they represent fixed limits on the maximum number of futures contracts that any person may hold and cannot allow such limits to be exceeded without express CFTC authority to do so. In addition to accountability levels and position limits that may apply at any time, the NYMEX and the ICE Futures impose position limits on contracts held in the last few days of trading in the near month contract to expire. It is unlikely that US12OF will run up against such position limits because US12OFs investment strategy is to close out its positions and roll from the near month contract to expire and the eleven following months to the next month contract to expire and the eleven following months during one day each month. For the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF did not exceed any position limits imposed by the NYMEX and ICE Futures.
The regulation of commodity interests in the United States is subject to ongoing modification by governmental and judicial action. On July 21, 2010, a broad financial regulatory reform bill, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (the Dodd-Frank Act), was signed into law. All of the Dodd-Frank Acts provisions became effective on July 16, 2011, but the actual implementation of some of the provisions is subject to continuing uncertainty because implementing rules and regulations have not been completely finalized and have been challenged in court. Pending final resolution of all applicable regulatory requirements, some specific examples of how the new Dodd-Frank Act provisions and rules adopted thereunder could impact US12OF are discussed below.
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Futures Contracts and Position Limits
Provisions in the Dodd-Frank Act include the requirement that position limits be established on a wide range of commodity interests including energy-based and other commodity futures contracts, certain cleared commodity swaps and certain over-the-counter commodity contracts; new registration, recordkeeping, capital and margin requirements for swap dealers and major swap participants as determined by the new law and applicable regulations; and the forced use of clearinghouse mechanisms for many swap transactions that are currently entered into in the over-the-counter market. The new law and the rules thereunder may negatively impact US12OFs ability to meet its investment objective either through limits or requirements imposed on it or upon its counterparties. Further, increased regulation of, and the imposition of additional costs on, swap transactions under the new legislation and implementing regulations could cause a reduction in the swap market and the overall derivatives markets, which could restrict liquidity and adversely affect US12OF. In particular, new position limits imposed on US12OF or its counterparties may impact US12OFs ability to invest in a manner that most efficiently meets its investment objective, and new requirements, including capital and mandatory clearing, may increase the cost of US12OFs investments and doing business, which could adversely impact the ability of US12OF to achieve its investment objective.
In late 2011, the CFTC adopted regulations implementing position limits and limit formulas for 28 core physical commodity futures contracts, including the Oil Futures Contracts and options on Oil Futures Contracts executed pursuant to the rules of designated contract markets (i.e., certain regulated exchanges) and commodity swaps that are economically equivalent to such futures and options contracts (collectively, Referenced Contracts). These regulations would have required, among other things, aggregation of position limits that would apply across different trading venues to contracts based on the same underlying commodity. However, the regulations would have required aggregation of Referenced Contracts held by separate Related Public Funds (as defined below) only if such Related Public Funds had identical trading strategies. USCF does not believe any of the Related Public Funds should be viewed as having identical trading strategies for purposes of the CFTCs aggregation rules.
The position limits rules were to be implemented in two phases, the first of which was to be effective October 12, 2012. However, on September 28, 2012, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia issued a memorandum opinion and order vacating the final regulations. The court issued that ruling in response to a lawsuit filed by two industry organizations challenging certain aspects of the regulations. There is no way of knowing whether the CFTC will ultimately be successful in adopting position limit rules, how those rules might differ from existing position limits imposed by applicable designated contract markets, and accordingly, whether any such rules would negatively impact the ability of US12OF to achieve its objectives.
Swap Transactions
The Dodd-Frank Act imposes new regulatory requirements on certain swap transactions that US12OF is authorized to engage in that may ultimately impact the ability of US12OF to meet its investment objective. On August 13, 2012, the CFTC and the SEC published joint final rules defining the terms swap and security-based swap. The term swap is broadly defined to include various types of over-the-counter derivatives, including swaps and options. The effective date of these final rules was October 12, 2012.
The Dodd-Frank Act requires that certain transactions ultimately falling within the definition of swap be executed on organized exchanges or swap execution facilities and cleared through regulated clearing organizations (which are referred to in the Dodd-Frank Act as derivative clearing organizations (DCOs)), if the CFTC mandates the central clearing of a particular contract. However, the CFTC has not issued any mandatory clearing determinations and, therefore, it is currently unknown which swaps will be subject to such trading and clearing requirements. If a swap is required to be cleared, the initial margin will be set by the clearing organization, subject to certain regulatory requirements and guidelines. Initial and variation margin requirements for swap dealers and major swap participants who enter into uncleared swaps and capital requirements for swap dealers and major swap participants who enter into both cleared and uncleared trades will be set by the CFTC, the SEC or the applicable Prudential Regulator. On May 23, 2012, the CFTC published final regulations, which became effective as of July 23, 2012, to determine which entities will be regulated as swap dealers and major swap participants and thus have to comply with these capital and margin requirements (as well as a multitude of other requirements under the Dodd-Frank Act). Most of the requirements became effective on October 12, 2012 when additional final rules defining the terms swap, security-based swap and mixed swap became effective. However, on October 11, 2012 and October 12, 2012, the CFTC issued several no-action letters and interpretive guidance which delayed much of the implementation of these requirements from October 12, 2012 until December 31, 2012. Increased regulation of, and the imposition of additional costs on, swap transactions could have an adverse effect on US12OF by, for example, reducing the size of and therefore liquidity in the derivatives market, increasing transaction costs and decreasing the ability to customize derivative transactions.
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The majority of the Dodd-Frank Act regulations affecting the swap market will not become effective until later in calendar year 2012 or the beginning of 2013 at the earliest.
On February 7, 2012, the CFTC published a rule requiring each futures commission merchant (FCM) and DCO to segregate cleared swaps and related collateral posted by a customer of the FCM from the assets of the FCM or DCO, although such property can be commingled with the property of other cleared swaps customers of the FCM or DCO. This rule addresses losses incurred by a DCO in a so-called double default scenario in which a customer of a FCM defaults in its obligations to the FCM and the FCM, in turn, defaults in its obligations to the DCO. Under this scenario, the DCO can only access the collateral attributable to other customers of the DCO whose cleared swap positions are in a loss position following the primary customers default. This rule is scheduled to become effective on November 8, 2012. Some market participants have expressed concern that the requirements of this segregation rule may result in higher initial margins or higher fees. US12OF does not anticipate any impact to its operations in order to meet the requirements of the new rule.
Additionally, the CFTC published rules on February 17, 2012 and April 3, 2012 that require swap dealers and major swap participants to: 1) adhere to business conduct standards, 2) implement policies and procedures to ensure compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act and 3) maintain records of such compliance. These new requirements may impact the documentation requirements for both cleared and non-cleared swaps and cause swap dealers and major swap participants to face increased compliance costs that, in turn, may be passed along to counterparties (such as US12OF) in the form of higher fees and expenses that related to trading swaps.
On February 24, 2012, the CFTC amended certain disclosure obligations to require that the operator of a commodity pool that invests in swaps include standardized swap risk disclosures in the pools disclosure documents by December 31, 2012.
The CFTC issued a final rule on May 23, 2012 interpreting the definition of eligible contract participant, as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act, in such a manner that US12OF may be limited as to the counterparties with which it may enter into forward contracts. Additionally, US12OF may under certain circumstances related to the amount of assets under management no longer qualify as an eligible contract participant. US12OFs ability to maintain a certain minimum level of assets and to qualify as an eligible contract participant allows US12OF to enter into swaps on swap execution facilities as well as on a bilateral, off-exchange basis. The loss of status as an eligible contract participant and the resulting loss of eligible counterparties and investment options could impact US12OFs ability to achieve its investment objective.
The effect of the future regulatory change on US12OF is impossible to predict, but it could be substantial and adverse.
USCF, which is registered as a commodity pool operator (CPO) with the CFTC, is authorized by the Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership of US12OF (the LP Agreement) to manage US12OF. USCF is authorized by US12OF in its sole judgment to employ and establish the terms of employment for, and termination of, commodity trading advisors or FCMs.
Price Movements
Crude oil futures prices were volatile during the nine months ended September 30, 2012 and exhibited moderate daily swings, finishing the period with an uneven downward trend. The average price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts started the period at $98.83 per barrel. Average prices hit a peak on February 24, 2012 at $109.77 per barrel. The low of the period was on June 28, 2012 when prices reached $77.69 per barrel. The period ended with the average price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts at $92.19 per barrel, down approximately 6.72% over the period. US12OFs per unit NAV started the period at $43.46. US12OFs per unit NAV reached its high for the period on February 24, 2012 at $48.23 and reached its low for the period on June 28, 2012 at $34.79. The per unit NAV on September 30, 2012 was $40.40, down approximately 7.04% over the period. The average Benchmark Oil Futures Contract prices listed above began with the February 2012 to January 2013 contracts and ended with the November 2012 to October 2013 contracts. The decrease of approximately 6.72% on the average price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts listed above is a hypothetical return only and could not actually be achieved by an investor holding Oil Futures Contracts. An investment in Oil Futures Contracts would need to be rolled forward during the time period described in order to simulate such a result. Furthermore, the change in the nominal price of these differing crude Oil Futures Contracts, measured from the start of the period to the end of the period, does not represent the actual benchmark results that US12OF seeks to track, which are more fully described below in the section titled Tracking US12OFs Benchmark.
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During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, the level of contango remained mild, meaning that the price of the near month crude Oil Futures Contract was less than the price of the next month crude Oil Futures Contract, or contracts further away from expiration. Crude oil inventories, which reached historic levels in January 2009 and February 2009 and which appeared to be the primary cause of the steep level of contango, began to drop in March 2009 and continued to drop for the remainder of 2009 and the beginning of 2010. During the year ended December 31, 2011, crude oil inventories began to climb higher, which contributed to the crude oil futures market remaining in contango through the end of December 2011. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, crude oil inventories maintained present levels which contributed to the crude oil futures market remaining in contango through the end of September 2012. For a discussion of the impact of backwardation and contango on total returns, see Term Structure of Crude Oil Prices and the Impact on Total Returns below.
Valuation of Oil Futures Contracts and the Computation of the Per Unit NAV
The per unit NAV of US12OFs units is calculated once each NYSE Arca trading day. The per unit NAV for a particular trading day is released after 4:00 p.m. New York time. Trading during the core trading session on the NYSE Arca typically closes at 4:00 p.m. New York time. US12OFs administrator uses the NYMEX closing price (determined at the earlier of the close of the NYMEX or 2:30 p.m. New York time) for the contracts held on the NYMEX, but calculates or determines the value of all other US12OF investments, including ICE Futures contracts or other futures contracts, as of the earlier of the close of the NYSE Arca or 4:00 p.m. New York time.
Results of Operations and the Crude Oil Market
Results of Operations. On December 6, 2007, US12OF listed its units on the American Stock Exchange (the AMEX) under the ticker symbol USL. On that day, US12OF established its initial offering price at $50.00 per unit and issued 300,000 units to the initial authorized purchaser, Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., in exchange for $15,000,000 in cash. As a result of the acquisition of the AMEX by NYSE Euronext, US12OFs units no longer trade on the AMEX and commenced trading on the NYSE Arca on November 25, 2008.
Since its initial offering of 11,000,000 units, US12OF has registered one subsequent offering of its units: 100,000,000 units which were registered with the SEC on March 31, 2009. Units offered by US12OF in the subsequent offerings were sold by it for cash at the units per unit NAV as described in the applicable prospectus. As of September 30, 2012, US12OF had issued 13,100,000 units, 2,850,000 of which were outstanding. As of September 30, 2012, there were 97,900,000 units registered but not yet issued.
More units may have been issued by US12OF than are outstanding due to the redemption of units. Unlike funds that are registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, units that have been redeemed by US12OF cannot be resold by US12OF. As a result, US12OF contemplates that additional offerings of its units will be registered with the SEC in the future in anticipation of additional issuances and redemptions.
As of September 30, 2012, US12OF had the following authorized purchasers: Citadel Securities LLC, Citigroup Global Markets Inc., JP Morgan Securities Inc., Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., Morgan Stanley & Company Inc., NewEdge Group LLC, Nomura Securities International Inc., RBC Capital Markets Corporation, SG Americas Securities LLC and Virtu Financial Capital Markets.
For the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2012 Compared to the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2011
As of September 30, 2012, the total unrealized gain on Oil Futures Contracts owned or held on that day was $91,920 and US12OF established cash deposits and investments in short-term obligations of the United States of two years or less (Treasuries) and money market funds that were equal to $115,280,262. US12OF held 89.41% of its cash assets in overnight deposits and money market funds at its custodian bank, while 10.59% of the cash balance was held as investments in Treasuries and margin deposits for the Oil Futures Contracts purchased. The ending per unit NAV on September 30, 2012 was $40.40.
By comparison, as of September 30, 2011, the total unrealized loss on Oil Futures Contracts owned or held on that day was $36,095,620 and US12OF established cash deposits and investments in money market funds that were equal to $209,662,679. US12OF held 76.03% of its cash assets in overnight deposits and money market funds at its custodian bank, while 23.97% of the cash balance was held as margin deposits for the Oil Futures Contracts purchased. The decrease in cash assets in overnight deposits and investments in Treasuries and money market funds for September 30, 2012, as compared to September 30, 2011, was the result of US12OFs smaller size as measured by total net assets during the nine months ended September 30, 2012. The ending per unit NAV on September 30, 2011 was $35.34. The increase in the per unit NAV for September 30, 2012, as compared to September 30, 2011, was primarily a result of an increase in the price of crude oil futures contracts between the period ended September 30, 2011 and the period ended September 30, 2012.
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Portfolio Expenses. US12OFs expenses consist of investment management fees, brokerage fees and commissions, certain offering costs, licensing fees, the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF and expenses relating to tax accounting and reporting requirements. The management fee that US12OF pays to USCF is calculated as a percentage of the total net assets of US12OF. US12OF pays USCF a management fee of 0.60% of its average daily total net assets. The fee is accrued daily and paid monthly.
During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, the average daily total net assets of US12OF were $145,156,304. The management fee incurred by US12OF during the period amounted to $652,013. By comparison, during the nine months ended September 30, 2011, the average daily total net assets of US12OF were $223,118,013. The management fee paid by US12OF during the period amounted to $1,001,280.
In addition to the management fee, US12OF pays all brokerage fees and other expenses, including tax reporting costs, licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, ongoing registration or other fees paid to the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and any other regulatory agency in connection with offers and sales of its units subsequent to the initial offering and all legal, accounting, printing and other expenses associated therewith. The total of these fees and expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2012 was $177,705, as compared to $318,267 for the nine months ended September 30, 2011. The decrease in total expenses excluding management fees for the nine months ended September 30, 2012 as compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2011, was primarily due to the decrease in the relative size of US12OFs total net assets during the nine months ended September 30, 2012. For the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF incurred $14,030 in ongoing registration fees and other expenses relating to the registration and offering of additional units. By comparison, for the nine months ended September 30, 2011, US12OF incurred $7,080 in ongoing registration fees and other expenses relating to the registration and offering of additional units. The increase in registration fees and expenses incurred by US12OF for the nine months ended September 30, 2012, as compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2011, was primarily due to a higher amortization rate of registration fees and expenses during the nine months ended September 30, 2012.
US12OF is responsible for paying its portion of the directors and officers liability insurance of US12OF and the United States Oil Fund, LP, the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP, the United States Gasoline Fund, LP, the United States Diesel-Heating Oil Fund, LP (formerly, the United States Heating Oil Fund, LP), the United States Short Oil Fund, LP, the United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund, LP, the United States Brent Oil Fund, LP, the United States Commodity Index Fund, the United States Copper Index Fund, the United States Agriculture Index Fund and the United States Metals Index Fund (collectively, the Related Public Funds) and the fees and expenses of the independent directors who also serve as audit committee members of US12OF and the Related Public Funds organized as limited partnerships and, as of July 8, 2011, the Related Public Funds organized as a series of a Delaware statutory trust. US12OF shares the fees and expenses on a pro rata basis with each Related Public Fund, as described above, based on the relative assets of each fund computed on a daily basis. These fees and expenses for the year ending December 31, 2012 are estimated to be a total of $540,000 for US12OF and the Related Public Funds. By comparison, for the year ended December 31, 2011, these fees and expenses amounted to a total of $607,582 for US12OF and the Related Public Funds. US12OFs portion of such fees and expenses for the year ended December 31, 2011 was $29,439.
US12OF also incurs commissions to brokers for the purchase and sale of Oil Futures Contracts, Other Oil-Related Investments or Treasuries. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, total commissions accrued to brokers amounted to $17,663. Of this amount, approximately $5,692 was a result of rebalancing costs and approximately $11,971 was the result of trades necessitated by creation and redemption activity. By comparison, during the nine months ended September 30, 2011, total commissions accrued to brokers amounted to $23,061. Of this amount, approximately $12,217 was a result of rebalancing costs and approximately $10,844 was the result of trades necessitated by creation and redemption activity. The decrease in the total commissions accrued to brokers for the nine months ended September 30, 2012, as compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2011, was primarily a function of decreased brokerage fees due to a lower number of futures contracts being held and traded as a result of the decrease in US12OFs total net assets during the nine months ended September 30, 2012. The decrease in total net assets required US12OF to purchase a fewer number of Oil Futures Contracts and incur a lower amount of broker commissions. As an annualized percentage of average daily total net assets, the figure for the nine months ended September 30, 2012 represents approximately 0.01% of average daily total net assets. By comparison, the figure for the nine months ended September 30, 2011 represented approximately 0.01% of average daily total net assets. However, there can be no assurance that commission costs and portfolio turnover will not cause commission expenses to rise in future quarters.
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The fees and expenses associated with US12OFs audit expenses and tax accounting and reporting requirements are paid by US12OF. These costs are estimated to be $200,000 for the year ending December 31, 2012.
Dividend and Interest Income. US12OF seeks to invest its assets such that it holds Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments in an amount equal to the total net assets of its portfolio. Typically, such investments do not require US12OF to pay the full amount of the contract value at the time of purchase, but rather require US12OF to post an amount as a margin deposit against the eventual settlement of the contract. As a result, US12OF retains an amount that is approximately equal to its total net assets, which US12OF invests in Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents. This includes both the amount on deposit with the FCM as margin, as well as unrestricted cash and cash equivalents held with US12OFs custodian bank. The Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents earn income that accrues on a daily basis. For the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF earned $28,138 in dividend and interest income on such cash and/or cash equivalents. Based on US12OFs average daily total net assets, this was equivalent to an annualized yield of 0.02%. US12OF purchased Treasuries during the nine months ended September 30, 2012 and also held cash and/or cash equivalents during this time period. By comparison, for the nine months ended September 30, 2011, US12OF earned $26,502 in dividend and interest income on such cash and/or cash equivalents. Based on US12OFs average daily total net assets, this was equivalent to an annualized yield of 0.02%. US12OF did not purchase Treasuries during the nine months ended September 30, 2011 and held only cash and/or cash equivalents during this time period. Interest rates on short-term investments held by US12OF, including cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries, were higher during the nine months ended September 30, 2012 compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2011. As a result, the amount of income earned by US12OF as a percentage of average daily total net assets was higher during the nine months ended September 30, 2012 as compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2011.
For the Three Months Ended September 30, 2012 Compared to the Three Months Ended September 30, 2011
Portfolio Expenses. During the three months ended September 30, 2012, the average daily total net assets of US12OF were $125,277,978. The management fee incurred by US12OF during the period amounted to $188,943. By comparison, during the three months ended September 30, 2011, the average daily total net assets of US12OF were $203,276,465. The management fee paid by US12OF during the period amounted to $307,421.
In addition to the management fee, US12OF pays all brokerage fees and other expenses, including tax reporting costs, licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, ongoing registration or other fees paid to the SEC, FINRA and any other regulatory agency in connection with offers and sales of its units subsequent to the initial offering and all legal, accounting, printing and other expenses associated therewith. The total of these fees and expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2012 was $59,762, as compared to $51,091 for the three months ended September 30, 2011. The increase in total expenses excluding management fees for the three months ended September 30, 2012 as compared to the three months ended September 30, 2011, was primarily due to an increase in the accrual rate of tax expenses during the three months ended September 30, 2012. For the three months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF incurred $9,298 in ongoing registration fees and other expenses relating to the registration and offering of additional units. By comparison, for the three months ended September 30, 2011, US12OF incurred $2,392 in ongoing registration fees and other expenses relating to the registration and offering of additional units. The increase in registration fees and expenses incurred by US12OF for the three months ended September 30, 2012, as compared to the three months ended September 30, 2011, was primarily due to a higher amortization rate of registration fees and expenses.
US12OF is responsible for paying its portion of the directors and officers liability insurance of US12OF and the Related Public Funds and the fees and expenses of the independent directors who also serve as audit committee members of US12OF and the Related Public Funds organized as limited partnerships and, as of July 8, 2011, the Related Public Funds organized as a series of a Delaware statutory trust. US12OF shares the fees and expenses on a pro rata basis with each Related Public Fund, as described above, based on the relative assets of each fund computed on a daily basis. These fees and expenses for the year ending December 31, 2012 are estimated to be a total of $540,000 for US12OF and the Related Public Funds. By comparison, for the year ended December 31, 2011, these fees and expenses amounted to a total of $607,582 for US12OF and the Related Public Funds. US12OFs portion of such fees and expenses for the year ended December 31, 2011 was $29,439.
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US12OF also incurs commissions to brokers for the purchase and sale of Oil Futures Contracts, Other Oil-Related Investments or Treasuries. During the three months ended September 30, 2012, total commissions accrued to brokers amounted to $6,319. Of this amount, approximately $2,127 was a result of rebalancing costs and approximately $4,192 was the result of trades necessitated by creation and redemption activity. By comparison, during the three months ended September 30, 2011, total commissions accrued to brokers amounted to $5,819. Of this amount, approximately $3,805 was a result of rebalancing costs and approximately $2,014 was the result of trades necessitated by creation and redemption activity. The increase in the total commissions accrued to brokers for the three months ended September 30, 2012, as compared to the three months ended September 30, 2011, was primarily a function of increased brokerage fees due to an increase in redemptions and creations of units during the three months ended September 30, 2012. The increase in creation and redemption activity required US12OF to trade a greater number of Oil Futures Contracts and incur a higher amount of broker commissions. As an annualized percentage of average daily total net assets, the figure for the three months ended September 30, 2012 represents approximately 0.02% of average daily total net assets. By comparison, the figure for the three months ended September 30, 2011 represented approximately 0.01% of average daily total net assets. However, there can be no assurance that commission costs and portfolio turnover will not cause commission expenses to rise in future quarters.
The fees and expenses associated with US12OFs audit expenses and tax accounting and reporting requirements are paid by US12OF. These costs are estimated to be $200,000 for the year ending December 31, 2012.
Dividend and Interest Income. US12OF seeks to invest its assets such that it holds Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments in an amount equal to the total net assets of its portfolio. Typically, such investments do not require US12OF to pay the full amount of the contract value at the time of purchase, but rather require US12OF to post an amount as a margin deposit against the eventual settlement of the contract. As a result, US12OF retains an amount that is approximately equal to its total net assets, which US12OF invests in Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents. This includes both the amount on deposit with the FCM as margin, as well as unrestricted cash and cash equivalents held with US12OFs custodian bank. The Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents earn income that accrues on a daily basis. For the three months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF earned $9,066 in dividend and interest income on such cash and/or cash equivalents. Based on US12OFs average daily total net assets, this was equivalent to an annualized yield of 0.03%. US12OF purchased Treasuries during the three months ended September 30, 2012 and also held cash and/or cash equivalents during this time period. By comparison, for the three months ended September 30, 2011, US12OF earned $6,887 in dividend and interest income on such cash and/or cash equivalents. Based on US12OFs average daily total net assets, this was equivalent to an annualized yield of 0.01%. US12OF did not purchase Treasuries during the three months ended September 30, 2011 and held only cash and/or cash equivalents during this time period. Interest rates on short-term investments held by US12OF, including cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries, were higher during the three months ended September 30, 2012 compared to the three months ended September 30, 2011. As a result, the amount of income earned by US12OF as a percentage of average daily total net assets was higher during the three months ended September 30, 2012 as compared to the three months ended September 30, 2011.
Tracking US12OFs Benchmark
USCF seeks to manage US12OFs portfolio such that changes in its average daily per unit NAV, on a percentage basis, closely track the daily changes in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts, also on a percentage basis. Specifically, USCF seeks to manage the portfolio such that over any rolling period of 30 valuation days, the average daily change in US12OFs per unit NAV is within a range of 90% to 110% (0.9 to 1.1) of the average daily change in the prices of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts. As an example, if the average daily movement of the average of the prices of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts for a particular 30-valuation day time period was 0.50% per day, USCF would attempt to manage the portfolio such that the average daily movement of the per unit NAV during that same time period fell between 0.45% and 0.55% (i.e., between 0.9 and 1.1 of the benchmarks results). US12OFs portfolio management goals do not include trying to make the nominal price of US12OFs per unit NAV equal to the average of the nominal prices of the current Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts or the spot price for light, sweet crude oil. USCF believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in listed Oil Futures Contracts.
For the 30 valuation days ended September 30, 2012, the simple average daily change in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts was (0.115)%, while the simple average daily change in the per unit NAV of US12OF over the same time period was (0.118)%. The average daily difference was (0.003)% (or (0.3) basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%). As a percentage of the daily movement of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts, the average error in daily tracking by the per unit NAV was (0.946)%, meaning that over this time period US12OFs tracking error was within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal. A significant portion of the level of US12OFs relative tracking error as a percentage of the benchmark was due to periods of flat price returns. The first chart below shows the daily movement of US12OFs per unit NAV versus the daily movement of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts for the 30-valuation day period ended September 30, 2012. The second chart below shows the monthly total returns of US12OF as compared to the monthly value of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts since inception.
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Since the commencement of the offering of US12OF units to the public on December 6, 2007 to September 30, 2012, the simple average daily change in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts was 0.008%, while the simple average daily change in the per unit NAV of US12OF over the same time period was 0.007%. The average daily difference was (0.001)% (or (0.1) basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%). As a percentage of the daily movement of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts, the average error in daily tracking by the per unit NAV was (0.531)%, meaning that over this time period US12OFs tracking error was within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.
* PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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* PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
An alternative tracking measurement of the return performance of US12OF versus the return of its Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts can be calculated by comparing the actual return of US12OF, measured by changes in its per unit NAV, versus the expected changes in its per unit NAV under the assumption that US12OFs returns had been exactly the same as the daily changes in its Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2012, the actual total return of US12OF as measured by changes in its per unit NAV was (7.04)%. This is based on an initial per unit NAV of $43.46 on December 31, 2011 and an ending per unit NAV as of September 30, 2012 of $40.40. During this time period, US12OF made no distributions to its unitholders. However, if US12OFs daily changes in its per unit NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts, US12OF would have had an estimated per unit NAV of $40.62 as of September 30, 2012, for a total return over the relevant time period of (6.53)%. The difference between the actual per unit NAV total return of US12OF of (7.04)% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts of (6.53)% was an error over the time period of (0.51)%, which is to say that US12OFs actual total return underperformed the benchmark result by that percentage. USCF believes that a portion of the difference between the actual total return and the expected benchmark total return can be attributed to the net impact of the expenses that US12OF pays, offset in part by the income that US12OF collects on its cash and cash equivalent holdings. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF earned dividend and interest income of $28,138, which is equivalent to a weighted average income rate of 0.02% for such period. In addition, during the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF also collected $10,500 from its Authorized Purchasers for creating or redeeming baskets of units. This income also contributed to US12OFs actual total return. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF incurred total expenses of $829,718. Income from dividends and interest and Authorized Purchaser collections net of expenses was $(791,080), which is equivalent to an annualized weighted average net income rate of (0.73)% for the nine months ended September 30, 2012. These expenses also contributed to US12OFs actual return underperforming the benchmark results.
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By comparison, for the nine months ended September 30, 2011, the actual total return of US12OF as measured by changes in its per unit NAV was (17.64)%. This was based on an initial per unit NAV of $42.91 on December 31, 2010 and an ending per unit NAV as of September 30, 2011 of $35.34. During this time period, US12OF made no distributions to its unitholders. However, if US12OFs daily changes in its per unit NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts, US12OF would have had an estimated per unit NAV of $35.57 as of September 30, 2011, for a total return over the relevant time period of (17.11)%. The difference between the actual per unit NAV total return of US12OF of (17.64)% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts of (17.11)% was an error over the time period of (0.53)%, which is to say that US12OFs actual total return underperformed the benchmark result by that percentage. USCF believes that a portion of the difference between the actual total return and the expected benchmark total return can be attributed to the net impact of the expenses that US12OF paid, offset in part by the income that US12OF collected on its cash and cash equivalent holdings. During the nine months ended September 30, 2011, US12OF earned dividend and interest income of $26,502, which was equivalent to a weighted average income rate of 0.02% for such period. In addition, during the nine months ended September 30, 2011, US12OF also collected $26,800 from its Authorized Purchasers for creating or redeeming baskets of units. This income also contributed to US12OFs actual total return. During the nine months ended September 30, 2011, US12OF incurred total expenses of $1,319,547. Income from dividends and interest and Authorized Purchaser collections net of expenses was $(1,266,245), which was equivalent to an annualized weighted average net income rate of (0.76)% for the nine months ended September 30, 2011. These expenses also contributed to US12OFs actual return underperforming the benchmark results.
There are currently three factors that have impacted or are most likely to impact US12OFs ability to accurately track its Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts.
First, US12OF may buy or sell its holdings in the then current Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts at a price other than the closing settlement price of that contract on the day during which US12OF executes the trade. In that case, US12OF may pay a price that is higher, or lower, than that of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts, which could cause the changes in the daily per unit NAV of US12OF to either be too high or too low relative to the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, USCF attempted to minimize the effect of these transactions by seeking to execute its purchase or sale of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts at, or as close as possible to, the end of the day settlement price. However, it may not always be possible for US12OF to obtain the closing settlement price and there is no assurance that failure to obtain the closing settlement price in the future will not adversely impact US12OFs attempt to track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts over time.
Second, US12OF earns dividend and interest income on its cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries. US12OF is not required to distribute any portion of its income to its unitholders and did not make any distributions to unitholders during the nine months ended September 30, 2012. Interest payments, and any other income, were retained within the portfolio and added to US12OFs NAV. When this income exceeds the level of US12OFs expenses for its management fee, brokerage commissions and other expenses (including ongoing registration fees, licensing fees and the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF), US12OF will realize a net yield that will tend to cause daily changes in the per unit NAV of US12OF to track slightly higher than daily changes in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF earned, on an annualized basis, approximately 0.02% on its cash and cash equivalent holdings. It also incurred cash expenses on an annualized basis of 0.60% for management fees, approximately 0.01% in brokerage commission costs related to the purchase and sale of futures contracts and approximately 0.15% for other expenses. The foregoing fees and expenses resulted in a net yield on an annualized basis of approximately (0.74)% and affected US12OFs ability to track its benchmark. If short-term interest rates rise above the current levels, the level of deviation created by the yield would decrease. Conversely, if short-term interest rates were to decline, the amount of error created by the yield would increase. When short-term yields drop to a level lower than the combined expenses of the management fee and the brokerage commissions, then the tracking error becomes a negative number and would tend to cause the daily returns of the per unit NAV to underperform the daily returns of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts.
Third, US12OF may hold Other Oil-Related Investments in its portfolio that may fail to closely track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts total return movements. In that case, the error in tracking the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts could result in daily changes in the per unit NAV of US12OF that are either too high, or too low, relative to the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF did not hold any Other Oil-Related Investments. If US12OF increases in size, and due to its obligations to comply with regulatory limits, US12OF may invest in Other Oil-Related Investments which may have the effect of increasing transaction related expenses and may result in increased tracking error.
USCF anticipates that interest rates will continue to remain at historical lows and therefore, it is anticipated that fees and expenses paid by US12OF will continue to be higher than interest earned by US12OF. As such, USCF anticipates that US12OF will continue to underperform its benchmark until such a time when interest earned at least equals or exceeds the fees and expenses paid by US12OF.
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Term Structure of Crude Oil Futures Prices and the Impact on Total Returns. Several factors determine the total return from investing in a futures contract position. One factor that impacts the total return that will result from investing in near month futures contracts and rolling those contracts forward each month is the price relationship between the current near month contract and the next month contract. For example, if the price of the near month contract is higher than the next month contract (a situation referred to as backwardation in the futures market), then absent any other change there is a tendency for the price of a next month contract to rise in value as it becomes the near month contract and approaches expiration. Conversely, if the price of a near month contract is lower than the next month contract (a situation referred to as contango in the futures market), then absent any other change there is a tendency for the price of a next month contract to decline in value as it becomes the near month contract and approaches expiration.
As an example, assume that the price of crude oil for immediate delivery (the spot price), was $50 per barrel, and the value of a position in the near month futures contract was also $50. Over time, the price of the barrel of crude oil will fluctuate based on a number of market factors, including demand for oil relative to its supply. The value of the near month contract will likewise fluctuate in reaction to a number of market factors. If investors seek to maintain their position in a near month contract and not take delivery of the oil, every month they must sell their current near month contract as it approaches expiration and invest in the next month contract.
If the futures market is in backwardation, e.g., when the expected price of crude oil in the future would be less, the investor would be buying a next month contract for a lower price than the current near month contract. Using the $50 per barrel price above to represent the front month price, the price of the next month contract could be $49 per barrel, that is, 2% cheaper than the front month contract. Hypothetically, and assuming no other changes to either prevailing crude oil prices or the price relationship between the spot price, the near month contract and the next month contract (and ignoring the impact of commission costs and the income earned on cash and/or cash equivalents), the value of the $49 next month contract would rise as it approaches expiration and becomes the new near month contract with a price of $50. In this example, the value of an investment in the second month contract would tend to rise faster than the spot price of crude oil, or fall slower. As a result, it would be possible in this hypothetical example for the spot price of crude oil to have risen 10% after some period of time, while the value of the investment in the second month futures contract would have risen 12%, assuming backwardation is large enough or enough time has elapsed. Similarly, the spot price of crude oil could have fallen 10% while the value of an investment in the futures contract could have fallen only 8%. Over time, if backwardation remained constant, the difference would continue to increase.
If the futures market is in contango, the investor would be buying a next month contract for a higher price than the current near month contract. Using again the $50 per barrel price above to represent the front month price, the price of the next month contract could be $51 per barrel, that is, 2% more expensive than the front month contract. Hypothetically, and assuming no other changes to either prevailing crude oil prices or the price relationship between the spot price, the near month contract and the next month contract (and ignoring the impact of commission costs and the income earned on cash and/or cash equivalents), the value of the next month contract would fall as it approaches expiration and becomes the new near month contract with a price of $50. In this example, it would mean that the value of an investment in the second month would tend to rise slower than the spot price of crude oil, or fall faster. As a result, it would be possible in this hypothetical example for the spot price of crude oil to have risen 10% after some period of time, while the value of the investment in the second month futures contract will have risen only 8%, assuming contango is large enough or enough time has elapsed. Similarly, the spot price of crude oil could have fallen 10% while the value of an investment in the second month futures contract could have fallen 12%. Over time, if contango remained constant, the difference would continue to increase.
The chart below compares the price of the near month contract to the average price of the near 12 month contracts over the last 10 years for light, sweet crude oil. When the price of the near month contract is higher than the average price of the near 12 month contracts, the market would be described as being in backwardation. When the price of the near month contract is lower than the average price of the near 12 month contracts, the market would be described as being in contango. Although the prices of the near month contract and the average price of the near 12 month contracts do tend to move up or down together, it can be seen that at times the near month prices are clearly higher than the average price of the near 12 month contracts (backwardation), and other times they are below the average price of the near 12 month contracts (contango).
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* PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
An alternative way to view the same data is to subtract the dollar price of the average dollar price of the near 12 month contracts for light, sweet crude oil from the dollar price of the near month contract for light, sweet crude oil. If the resulting number is a positive number, then the near month price is higher than the average price of the near 12 months and the market could be described as being in backwardation. If the resulting number is a negative number, then the near month price is lower than the average price of the near 12 months and the market could be described as being in contango. The chart below shows the results from subtracting the average dollar price of the near 12 month contracts from the near month price for the 10 year period between September 30, 2002 and September 30, 2012.
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* PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
An investment in a portfolio that involved owning only the near month contract would likely produce a different result than an investment in a portfolio that owned an equal number of each of the near 12 months worth of contracts. Generally speaking, when the crude oil futures market is in backwardation, the near month only portfolio would tend to have a higher total return than the 12 month contract portfolio. Conversely, if the crude oil futures market was in contango, the portfolio containing 12 months worth of contracts would tend to outperform the near month only portfolio. The chart below shows the annual results of owning a portfolio consisting of the near month contract and a portfolio containing the near 12 months worth of contracts. In addition, the chart shows the annual change in the spot price of light, sweet crude oil. In this example, each month, the near month only portfolio would sell the near month contract at expiration and buy the next month out contract. The portfolio holding an equal number of the near 12 months worth of contracts would sell the near month contract at expiration and replace it with the contract that becomes the new twelfth month contract.
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* PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT US12OF WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
BECAUSE THERE ARE NO ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS TO COMPARE TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, INVESTORS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS.
As seen in the chart above, there have been periods of both positive and negative annual total returns for both hypothetical portfolios over the last 10 years. In addition, there have been periods during which the near month only approach had higher returns, and periods where the 12 month approach had higher total returns. The above chart does not represent the performance history of US12OF or any Related Public Fund.
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Historically, the crude oil futures markets have experienced periods of contango and backwardation, with backwardation being in place more often than contango. During 2006 and the first half of 2007, these markets experienced contango. However, starting early in the third quarter of 2007, the crude oil futures market moved into backwardation. The crude oil markets remained in backwardation until late in the second quarter of 2008 when they moved into contango. The crude oil markets remained in contango until late in the third quarter of 2008, when the markets moved into backwardation. Early in the fourth quarter of 2008, the crude oil market moved back into contango and remained in contango for the balance of 2008. Throughout 2009, the crude oil market remained in contango. During parts of January and February 2009, the level of contango was unusually steep. Crude oil inventories, which reached historic levels in January and February 2009 and which appeared to be the primary cause of the steep level of contango, began to drop in March 2009 and continued to drop for the balance of 2009 and the beginning of 2010. The crude oil futures market remained in contango through 2010. In 2011, the crude oil futures market experienced long periods of mild contango, with the exception of a short period during the first quarter of 2011 where contango steepened by 4%. The crude oil futures market remained in contango through the nine months ended September 30, 2012.
USCF believes that holding futures contracts whose expiration dates are spread out over a 12 month period of time will cause the total return of such a portfolio to vary compared to a portfolio that holds only a single months contract (such as the near month contract). In particular, USCF believes that the total return of a portfolio holding contracts with a range of expiration months will be impacted differently by the price relationship between different contract months of the same commodity future compared to the total return of a portfolio consisting of the near month contract. USCF believes that based on historical evidence a portfolio that held futures contracts with a range of expiration dates spread out over a 12 month period of time would typically be impacted less by the positive effect of backwardation, and less by the negative effect of contango, compared to a portfolio that held contracts of a single near month. As a result, absent the impact of any other factors, a portfolio of 12 different monthly contracts would tend to have a lower total return than a near month only portfolio in a backwardation market and a higher total return in a contango market. However there can be no assurance that such historical relationships would provide the same or similar results in the future.
Periods of contango or backwardation do not materially impact US12OFs investment objective of having the daily percentage changes in its per unit NAV track the daily percentage changes in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts since the impact of backwardation and contango tend to equally impact the daily percentage changes in price of both US12OFs units and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts. It is impossible to predict with any degree of certainty whether backwardation or contango will occur in the future. It is likely that both conditions will occur during different periods.
Crude Oil Market. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, crude oil prices were impacted by several factors. On the consumption side, demand moderated inside and outside the United States as global economic growth, including emerging economies such as China and India, showed signs of slowing economic growth. Europe in particular showed signs of weakness as the ongoing financial and banking crisis raised concerns during the third quarter of 2012. On the supply side, efforts to reduce production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to more closely match global consumption were partially successful. In the summer of 2011, production had been disrupted by political unrest in the Middle East, particularly Libya, which reduced global supply by approximately 1.8 million barrels per day. A partial resolution of the Libyan situation has reduced concerns regarding the global supply of crude oil. However, continuing concerns about the political standoff with Iran have left the market subject to bouts of heightened volatility as OPECs ability to replace Iranian oil currently subject to embargo is not unlimited. Crude oil prices finished the third quarter of 2012 approximately 6.72% lower than at the beginning of the year, as the global economy continues to adjust to periods of slow recovery and economic growth. USCF believes that should the global economic situation cease to improve, or decline, there is a meaningful possibility that crude oil prices could further retreat from their current levels, while any military actions involving Iran would likely have the opposite effect.
Crude Oil Price Movements in Comparison to Other Energy Commodities and Investment Categories. USCF believes that investors frequently measure the degree to which prices or total returns of one investment or asset class move up or down in value in concert with another investment or asset class. Statistically, such a measure is usually done by measuring the correlation of the price movements of the two different investments or asset classes over some period of time. The correlation is scaled between 1 and -1, where 1 indicates that the two investment options move up or down in price or value together, known as positive correlation, and -1 indicates that they move in completely opposite directions, known as negative correlation. A correlation of 0 would mean that the movements of the two are neither positively nor negatively correlated, known as non-correlation. That is, the investment options sometimes move up and down together and other times move in opposite directions.
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For the ten-year time period between September 30, 2002 and September 30, 2012, the table below compares the monthly movements of crude oil prices versus the monthly movements of the prices of several other energy commodities, such as natural gas, diesel-heating oil, and unleaded gasoline, as well as several major non-commodity investment asset classes, such as large cap U.S. equities, U.S. government bonds and global equities. It can be seen that over this particular time period, the movement of crude oil on a monthly basis was not strongly correlated, positively or negatively, with the movements of large cap U.S. equities or U.S. government bonds. However, movements in crude oil had a strong positive correlation to movements in diesel-heating oil and unleaded gasoline. Finally, crude oil had a positive, yet weaker correlation with global equities and natural gas.
Correlation Matrix |
Large Cap U.S. Equities (S&P 500) |
U.S.
Govt. Bonds (EFFAS U.S. Govt. Bond Index) |
Global Equities (FTSE World Index) |
Unleaded Gasoline |
Diesel-Heating Oil |
Natural Gas |
Crude Oil |
|||||||||||||||||||||
Large Cap U.S. Equities (S&P 500) |
1.000 | (0.322 | ) | 0.968 | 0.206 | 0.248 | 0.035 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||||||||||
U.S. Govt. Bonds (EFFAS U.S. Govt. Bond Index) |
1.000 | (0.300 | ) | (0.228 | ) | (0.144 | ) | 0.076 | (0.194 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||
Global Equities (FTSE World Index) |
1.000 | 0.263 | 0.327 | 0.087 | 0.380 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Unleaded Gasoline |
1.000 | 0.710 | 0.285 | 0.722 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diesel-Heating Oil |
1.000 | 0.489 | 0.833 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Natural Gas |
1.000 | 0.373 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Crude Oil |
1.000 |
Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
The table below covers a more recent, but much shorter, range of dates than the above table. Over the one-year period ended September 30, 2012, crude oil had a strong positive correlation with domestic and global equities. The correlation of crude oil with the movements of diesel-heating oil and global and domestic equities was stronger compared to what it had displayed over the ten-year period ended September 30, 2012. Notably, the correlation between crude oil and large cap U.S. equities, which had been essentially non-correlated over the ten-year period ended September 30, 2012, displayed results that indicated that they had a stronger positive correlation over this shorter time period. Unleaded gasoline still had a positive, yet much weaker correlation during the one-year period as compared to the ten-year period ended September 30, 2012. Crude oil and natural gas, which had been positively correlated over the ten-year period, were essentially non-correlated over the shorter time frame. Finally, the results showed that crude oil and U.S. government bonds, which had essentially been non-correlated for the ten-year period ended September 30, 2012, were moderately negatively correlated over this more recent time period.
Correlation Matrix |
Large Cap U.S. Equities (S&P 500) |
U.S.
Govt. Bonds (EFFAS U.S. Govt. Bond Index) |
Global Equities (FTSE World Index) |
Unleaded Gasoline |
Diesel-Heating Oil |
Natural Gas |
Crude Oil |
|||||||||||||||||||||
Large Cap U.S. Equities (S&P 500) |
1.000 | (0.781 | ) | 0.980 | 0.650 | 0.788 | 0.133 | 0.760 | ||||||||||||||||||||
U.S. Govt. Bonds (EFFAS U.S. Govt. Bond Index) |
1.000 | (0.746 | ) | (0.677 | ) | (0.597 | ) | (0.005 | ) | (0.529 | ) | |||||||||||||||||
Global Equities (FTSE World Index) |
1.000 | 0.652 | 0.819 | 0.202 | 0.738 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Unleaded Gasoline |
1.000 | 0.666 | (0.184 | ) | 0.424 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Diesel-Heating Oil |
1.000 | 0.002 | 0.880 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Natural Gas |
1.000 | 0.018 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Crude Oil |
1.000 |
Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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Investors are cautioned that the historical price relationships between crude oil and various other energy commodities, as well as other investment asset classes, as measured by correlation may not be reliable predictors of future price movements and correlation results. The results pictured above would have been different if a different range of dates had been selected. USCF believes that crude oil has historically not demonstrated a strong correlation with equities or bonds over long periods of time. However, USCF also believes that in the future it is possible that crude oil could have long-term correlation results that indicate prices of crude oil more closely track the movements of equities or bonds. In addition, USCF believes that, when measured over time periods shorter than ten years, there will always be some periods where the correlation of crude oil to equities and bonds will be either more strongly positively correlated or more strongly negatively correlated than the long term historical results suggest.
The correlations between crude oil, natural gas, diesel-heating oil and gasoline are relevant because USCF endeavors to invest US12OFs assets in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments so that daily changes in percentage terms in US12OFs per unit NAV correlate as closely as possible with daily changes in percentage terms in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts. If certain other fuel-based commodity futures contracts do not closely correlate with the Oil Futures Contracts, then their use could lead to greater tracking error. As noted above, USCF also believes that the changes in percentage terms in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts will closely correlate with changes in percentage terms in the spot price of light, sweet crude oil.
Critical Accounting Policies
Preparation of the condensed financial statements and related disclosures in compliance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America requires the application of appropriate accounting rules and guidance, as well as the use of estimates. US12OFs application of these policies involves judgments and actual results may differ from the estimates used.
USCF has evaluated the nature and types of estimates that it makes in preparing US12OFs condensed financial statements and related disclosures and has determined that the valuation of its investments, which are not traded on a United States or internationally recognized futures exchange (such as forward contracts and over-the-counter contracts) involves a critical accounting policy. The values which are used by US12OF for its Oil Futures Contracts are provided by its commodity broker who uses market prices when available, while over-the-counter contracts are valued based on the present value of estimated future cash flows that would be received from or paid to a third party in settlement of these derivative contracts prior to their delivery date and valued on a daily basis. In addition, US12OF estimates interest and dividend income on a daily basis using prevailing rates earned on its cash and cash equivalents. These estimates are adjusted to the actual amount received on a monthly basis and the difference, if any, is not considered material.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
US12OF has not made, and does not anticipate making, use of borrowings or other lines of credit to meet its obligations. US12OF has met, and it is anticipated that US12OF will continue to meet, its liquidity needs in the normal course of business from the proceeds of the sale of its investments, or from the Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents that it intends to hold at all times. US12OFs liquidity needs include: redeeming units, providing margin deposits for its existing Oil Futures Contracts or the purchase of additional Oil Futures Contracts and posting collateral for its over-the-counter contracts, if applicable, and payment of its expenses, summarized below under Contractual Obligations.
US12OF currently generates cash primarily from: (i) the sale of baskets consisting of 50,000 units (Creation Baskets) and (ii) income earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents. US12OF has allocated substantially all of its net assets to trading in Oil Interests. US12OF invests in Oil Interests to the fullest extent possible without being leveraged or unable to satisfy its current or potential margin or collateral obligations with respect to its investments in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments. A significant portion of US12OFs NAV is held in cash and cash equivalents that are used as margin and as collateral for its trading in Oil Interests. The balance of the assets is held in US12OFs account at its custodian bank. Income received from US12OFs investments in money market funds and Treasuries is paid to US12OF. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OFs expenses exceeded the income US12OF earned and the cash earned from the sale of Creation Baskets and the redemption of Redemption Baskets. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF was forced to use other assets to pay expenses, which could cause a drop in US12OFs NAV over time. To the extent expenses exceed income, US12OFs NAV will be negatively impacted.
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US12OFs investments in Oil Interests may be subject to periods of illiquidity because of market conditions, regulatory considerations and other reasons. For example, most commodity exchanges limit the fluctuations in futures contracts prices during a single day by regulations referred to as daily limits. During a single day, no trades may be executed at prices beyond the daily limit. Once the price of a futures contract has increased or decreased by an amount equal to the daily limit, positions in the contracts can neither be taken nor liquidated unless the traders are willing to effect trades at or within the specified daily limit. Such market conditions could prevent US12OF from promptly liquidating its positions in Oil Futures Contracts. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF was not forced to purchase or liquidate any of its positions while daily limits were in effect; however, US12OF cannot predict whether such an event may occur in the future.
Prior to the initial offering of US12OF, all payments with respect to US12OFs expenses were paid by USCF. US12OF does not have an obligation or intention to refund such payments by USCF. USCF is under no obligation to pay US12OFs current or future expenses. Since the initial offering of units, US12OF has been responsible for expenses relating to: (i) management fees, (ii) brokerage fees and commissions, (iii) licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, (iv) ongoing registration expenses in connection with offers and sales of its units subsequent to the initial offering, (v) other expenses, including tax reporting costs, (vi) fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF and (vii) other extraordinary expenses not in the ordinary course of business, while USCF has been responsible for expenses relating to the fees of US12OFs Marketing Agent, Administrator and Custodian and registration expenses relating to the initial offering of units. If USCF and US12OF are unsuccessful in raising sufficient funds to cover these respective expenses or in locating any other source of funding, US12OF will terminate and investors may lose all or part of their investment.
Market Risk
Trading in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments, such as forwards, involves US12OF entering into contractual commitments to purchase or sell oil at a specified date in the future. The aggregate market value of the contracts will significantly exceed US12OFs future cash requirements since US12OF intends to close out its open positions prior to settlement. As a result, US12OF is generally only subject to the risk of loss arising from the change in value of the contracts. US12OF considers the fair value of its derivative instruments to be the unrealized gain or loss on the contracts. The market risk associated with US12OFs commitments to purchase oil is limited to the aggregate market value of the contracts held. However, should US12OF enter into a contractual commitment to sell oil, it would be required to make delivery of the oil at the contract price, repurchase the contract at prevailing prices or settle in cash. Since there are no limits on the future price of oil, the market risk to US12OF could be unlimited.
US12OFs exposure to market risk depends on a number of factors, including the markets for oil, the volatility of interest rates and foreign exchange rates, the liquidity of the Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments markets and the relationships among the contracts held by US12OF. Drastic market occurrences could ultimately lead to the loss of all or substantially all of an investors capital.
Credit Risk
When US12OF enters into Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments, it is exposed to the credit risk that the counterparty will not be able to meet its obligations. The counterparty for the Oil Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX and on most other futures exchanges is the clearinghouse associated with the particular exchange. In general, in addition to margin required to be posted by the clearinghouse in connection with cleared trades, clearinghouses are backed by their members who may be required to share in the financial burden resulting from the nonperformance of one of their members and, therefore, this additional member support should significantly reduce credit risk. Some foreign exchanges are not backed by their clearinghouse members but may be backed by a consortium of banks or other financial institutions. There can be no assurance that any counterparty, clearinghouse, or their members or their financial backers will satisfy their obligations to US12OF in such circumstances.
USCF attempts to manage the credit risk of US12OF by following various trading limitations and policies. In particular, US12OF generally posts margin and/or holds liquid assets that are approximately equal to the market value of its obligations to counterparties under the Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments it holds. USCF has implemented procedures that include, but are not limited to, executing and clearing trades only with creditworthy parties and/or requiring the posting of collateral or margin by such parties for the benefit of US12OF to limit its credit exposure. UBS Securities LLC, US12OFs commodity broker, or any other broker that may be retained by US12OF in the future, when acting as US12OFs FCM in accepting orders to purchase or sell Oil Futures Contracts on United States exchanges, is required by CFTC regulations to separately account for and segregate as belonging to US12OF, all assets of US12OF relating to domestic Oil Futures Contracts trading. These FCMs are not allowed to commingle US12OFs assets with their other assets. In addition, the CFTC requires commodity brokers to hold in a secure account US12OFs assets related to foreign Oil Futures Contracts trading.
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If, in the future, US12OF purchases over-the-counter contracts, see Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q for a discussion of over-the-counter contracts.
As of September 30, 2012, US12OF held cash deposits and investments in Treasuries and money market funds in the amount of $115,280,262 with the custodian and FCM. Some or all of these amounts may be subject to loss should US12OFs custodian and/or FCM cease operations.
Off Balance Sheet Financing
As of September 30, 2012, US12OF had no loan guarantee, credit support or other off-balance sheet arrangements of any kind other than agreements entered into in the normal course of business, which may include indemnification provisions relating to certain risks that service providers undertake in performing services which are in the best interests of US12OF. While US12OFs exposure under these indemnification provisions cannot be estimated, they are not expected to have a material impact on US12OFs financial position.
European Sovereign Debt
US12OF had no direct exposure to European sovereign debt as of September 30, 2012 and has no direct exposure to European sovereign debt as of the filing of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
Redemption Basket Obligation
In order to meet its investment objective and pay its contractual obligations described below, US12OF requires liquidity to redeem units, which redemptions must be in blocks of 50,000 units as of February 29, 2012 called Redemption Baskets. (Prior to February 29, 2012, the size of the Redemption Basket was 100,000 units). US12OF has to date satisfied this obligation by paying from the cash or cash equivalents it holds or through the sale of its Treasuries in an amount proportionate to the number of units being redeemed.
Contractual Obligations
US12OFs primary contractual obligations are with USCF. In return for its services, USCF is entitled to a management fee calculated monthly as a fixed percentage of US12OFs NAV, currently 0.60% of NAV on its average daily total net assets.
USCF agreed to pay the start-up costs associated with the formation of US12OF, primarily its legal, accounting and other costs in connection with USCFs registration with the CFTC as a CPO and the registration and listing of US12OF and its units with the SEC, FINRA and NYSE Arca (formerly, AMEX), respectively. However, since US12OFs initial offering of units, offering costs incurred in connection with registering and listing additional units of US12OF have been directly borne on an ongoing basis by US12OF, and not by USCF.
USCF pays the fees of US12OFs marketing agent, ALPS Distributors, Inc., and the fees of the custodian and transfer agent, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (BBH&Co.), as well as BBH&Co.s fees for performing administrative services, including those in connection with the preparation of US12OFs condensed financial statements and its SEC, NFA and CFTC reports. USCF and US12OF have also entered into a licensing agreement with the NYMEX pursuant to which US12OF and the Related Public Funds, other than USBO, USCI, CPER, USAG and USMI, pay a licensing fee to the NYMEX. US12OF also pays the fees and expenses associated with its tax accounting and reporting requirements.
In addition to USCFs management fee, US12OF pays its brokerage fees (including fees to a FCM), over-the-counter dealer spreads, any licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, and, subsequent to the initial offering, registration and other fees paid to the SEC, FINRA, or other regulatory agencies in connection with the offer and sale of units, as well as legal, printing, accounting and other expenses associated therewith, and extraordinary expenses. The latter are expenses not incurred in the ordinary course of US12OFs business, including expenses relating to the indemnification of any person against liabilities and obligations to the extent permitted by law and under the LP Agreement, the bringing or defending of actions in law or in equity or otherwise conducting litigation and incurring legal expenses and the settlement of claims and litigation. Commission payments to a FCM are on a contract-by-contract, or round turn, basis. US12OF also pays a portion of the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF. See Note 3 to the Notes to Condensed Financial Statements (Unaudited) in Item 1 of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
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The parties cannot anticipate the amount of payments that will be required under these arrangements for future periods, as US12OFs per unit NAVs and trading levels to meet its investment objective will not be known until a future date. These agreements are effective for a specific term agreed upon by the parties with an option to renew, or, in some cases, are in effect for the duration of US12OFs existence. Either party may terminate these agreements earlier for certain reasons described in the agreements.
As of September 30, 2012, US12OFs portfolio consisted of 1,232 Crude Oil Futures CL Contracts traded on the NYMEX. As of September 30, 2012, US12OF did not hold any Oil Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures. For a list of US12OFs current holdings, please see US12OFs website at www.unitedstates12monthoilfund.com.
Item 3. | Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk. |
Over-the-Counter Derivatives (Including Spreads and Straddles)
In the future, US12OF may purchase over-the-counter contracts (OTC Contracts). Unlike most exchange-traded futures contracts or exchange-traded options on such futures, each party to an OTC Contract bears the credit risk that the other party may not be able to perform its obligations under its contract.
Swap transactions, like other financial transactions, involve a variety of significant risks. The specific risks presented by a particular swap transaction necessarily depend upon the terms and circumstances of the transaction. In general, however, all swap transactions involve some combination of market risk, credit risk, counterparty credit risk, funding risk, liquidity risk and operational risk.
Highly customized swap transactions in particular may increase liquidity risk, which may result in a suspension of redemptions. Highly leveraged transactions may experience substantial gains or losses in value as a result of relatively small changes in the value or level of an underlying or related market factor.
In evaluating the risks and contractual obligations associated with a particular swap transaction, it is important to consider that a swap transaction may be modified or terminated only by mutual consent of the original parties and subject to agreement on individually negotiated terms. Therefore, it may not be possible for USCF to modify, terminate or offset US12OFs obligations or its exposure to the risks associated with a transaction prior to its scheduled termination date.
To reduce the credit risk that arises in connection with such contracts, US12OF will generally enter into an agreement with each counterparty based on the Master Agreement published by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association that provides for the netting of its overall exposure to its counterparty, if the counterparty is unable to meet its obligations to US12OF due to the occurrence of a specified event, such as the insolvency of the counterparty.
USCF assesses or reviews, as appropriate, the creditworthiness of each potential or existing counterparty to an OTC Contract pursuant to guidelines approved by USCFs board of directors (the Board). Furthermore, USCF on behalf of US12OF only enters into OTC Contracts with counterparties who are, or are affiliates of, (a) banks regulated by a United States federal bank regulator, (b) broker-dealers regulated by the SEC, (c) insurance companies domiciled in the United States, or (d) producers, users or traders of energy, whether or not regulated by the CFTC. Any entity acting as a counterparty shall be regulated in either the United States or the United Kingdom unless otherwise approved by the Board after consultation with its legal counsel. Existing counterparties are also reviewed periodically by USCF. US12OF will also require that the counterparty be highly rated and/or provide collateral or other credit support. Even if collateral is used to reduce counterparty credit risk, sudden changes in the value of OTC transactions may leave a party open to financial risk due to a counterparty default since the collateral held may not cover a partys exposure on the transaction in such situations.
In general, valuing OTC derivatives is less certain than valuing actively traded financial instruments such as exchange-traded futures contracts and securities or cleared swaps because the price and terms on which such OTC derivatives are entered into or can be terminated are individually negotiated, and those prices and terms may not reflect the best price or terms available from other sources. In addition, while market makers and dealers generally quote indicative prices or terms for entering into or terminating OTC Contracts, they typically are not contractually obligated to do so, particularly if they are not a party to the transaction. As a result, it may be difficult to obtain an independent value for an outstanding OTC derivatives transaction.
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During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, US12OF did not employ any hedging methods such as those described above since all of its investments were made over an exchange. Therefore, during such period, US12OF was not exposed to counterparty risk.
US12OF anticipates that the use of Other Oil-Related Investments together with its investments in Oil Futures Contracts will produce price and total return results that closely track the investment goals of US12OF. However, there can be no assurance of this. OTC Contracts may result in higher transaction-related expenses than the brokerage commissions paid in connection with the purchase of Oil Futures Contracts, which may impact US12OFs ability to successfully track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts.
Item 4. | Controls and Procedures. |
Disclosure Controls and Procedures
US12OF maintains disclosure controls and procedures that are designed to ensure that material information required to be disclosed in US12OFs periodic reports filed or submitted under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time period specified in the SECs rules and forms.
The duly appointed officers of USCF, including its chief executive officer and chief financial officer, who perform functions equivalent to those of a principal executive officer and principal financial officer of US12OF if US12OF had any officers, have evaluated the effectiveness of US12OFs disclosure controls and procedures and have concluded that the disclosure controls and procedures of US12OF have been effective as of the end of the period covered by this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
Change in Internal Control Over Financial Reporting
There were no changes in US12OFs internal control over financial reporting during US12OFs last fiscal quarter that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, US12OFs internal control over financial reporting.
Item 1. | Legal Proceedings. |
Not applicable.
Item 1A. | Risk Factors. |
There have been no material changes to the risk factors previously disclosed in US12OFs Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011, filed on March 8, 2012, and US12OFs Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2012, filed on August 9, 2012, except for the update to the risk factor set forth below.
Accountability levels, position limits, and daily price fluctuation limits set by the exchanges have the potential to cause a tracking error, which could cause the price of units to substantially vary from the average of the prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts and prevent investors from being able to effectively use US12OF as a way to hedge against crude oil-related losses or as a way to indirectly invest in crude oil.
Designated contract markets such as the NYMEX and ICE Futures have established accountability levels and position limits on the maximum net long or net short futures contracts in commodity interests that any person or group of persons under common trading control (other than as a hedge, which an investment by US12OF is not) may hold, own or control.
In addition to accountability levels and position limits, the NYMEX and ICE Futures also set daily price fluctuation limits on futures contracts. The daily price fluctuation limit establishes the maximum amount that the price of a futures contract may vary either up or down from the previous days settlement price. Once the daily price fluctuation limit has been reached in a particular futures contract, no trades may be made at a price beyond that limit.
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All of these limits may potentially cause a tracking error between the price of the units and the average of the prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts. This may in turn prevent investors from being able to effectively use US12OF as a way to hedge against crude-oil related losses or as a way to indirectly invest in crude oil. US12OF has not limited the size of its offering and is committed to utilizing substantially all of its proceeds to purchase Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments. If US12OF encounters accountability levels, position limits, or price fluctuation limits for Oil Futures Contracts on the NYMEX or ICE Futures, it may then, if permitted under applicable regulatory requirements, purchase Oil Futures Contracts on other exchanges that trade listed crude oil futures. In addition, if US12OF exceeds accountability levels on either the NYMEX or ICE Futures and is required by such exchanges to reduce its holdings, such reduction could potentially cause a tracking error between the price of the units and the price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts.
Item 2. | Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds. |
Not applicable.
Item 3. | Defaults Upon Senior Securities. |
Not applicable.
Item 4. | Mine Safety Disclosures. |
Not applicable.
Item 5. | Other Information. |
Monthly Account Statements
Pursuant to the requirement under Rule 4.22 under the Commodity Exchange Act, each month US12OF publishes an account statement for its unitholders, which includes a Statement of Income (Loss) and a Statement of Changes in Net Asset Value. The account statement is furnished to the SEC on a current report on Form 8-K pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Exchange Act and posted each month on US12OFs website at www.unitedstates12monthoilfund.com.
Item 6. | Exhibits. |
Listed below are the exhibits, which are filed as part of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q (according to the number assigned to them in Item 601 of Regulation S-K):
Exhibit Number |
Description of Document | |
31.1(1) |
Certification by Principal Executive Officer Pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. | |
31.2(1) |
Certification by Principal Financial Officer Pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. | |
32.1(1) |
Certification by Principal Executive Officer Pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. | |
32.2(1) |
Certification by Principal Financial Officer Pursuant to 18 U.S.C. Section 1350, as Adopted Pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. | |
101.INS(2) |
XBRL Instance Document. | |
101.SCH(2) |
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema. | |
101.CAL(2) |
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase. | |
101.DEF(2) |
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase. | |
101.LAB(2) |
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase. | |
101.PRE(2) |
XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase. |
(1) | Filed herewith. |
(2) | In accordance with Rule 406T of Regulation S-T, the information in these exhibits is furnished and deemed not filed or part of a registration statement or prospectus for purposes of Sections 11 or 12 of the Securities Act of 1933, is deemed not filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and otherwise is not subject to liability under these sections. |
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SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (Registrant)
By: United States Commodity Funds LLC, its general partner
By: |
/s/ Nicholas D. Gerber | |
Nicholas D. Gerber | ||
President and Chief Executive Officer | ||
(Principal executive officer) |
Date: November 9, 2012
By: |
/s/ Howard Mah | |
Howard Mah | ||
Chief Financial Officer | ||
(Principal financial and accounting officer) |
Date: November 9, 2012
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