OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORP - Quarter Report: 2007 September (Form 10-Q)
UNITED
STATES
SECURITIES
AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington,
D.C. 20549
|
FORM
10-Q
|
[x] Quarterly
report pursuant to section 13 or 15(d) of the Security Exchange Act
of
1934
for
the quarterly period ended:
September 30, 2007
or
|
[ ] Transition
report pursuant to section 13 or 15(d) of the Security Exchange Act
of
1934
|
Commission
File Number: 001-10607
|
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
(Exact
name of registrant as specified in its
charter)
|
Delaware
|
No.
36-2678171
|
|
(State
or other jurisdiction of
incorporation
or organization)
|
(IRS
Employer Identification No.)
|
307
North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, Illinois
|
60601
|
|
(Address
of principal executive office)
|
(Zip
Code)
|
Registrant's
telephone number, including area code: 312-346-8100
Indicate
by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to
be
filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during
the
preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required
to file such reports) and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements
for
the past 90 days. Yes:x No:¨
Indicate
by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an
accelerated filer, or a non-accelerated filer. See definition of
“accelerated filer and large accelerated filer” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange
Act. (Check one).
Large
accelerated filer x
|
Accelerated
filer ¨
|
Non-accelerated
filer ¨
|
Indicate
by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Exchange
Act Rule 12b-2). Yes:¨
No:x
Class
|
Shares
Outstanding
September
30, 2007
|
|
Common
Stock / $1 par value
|
230,404,322
|
There
are
33 pages in this report
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
Report
on
Form 10-Q / September 30, 2007
INDEX
PAGE
NO.
|
|
PART
I FINANCIAL INFORMATION:
|
|
CONSOLIDATED
BALANCE SHEETS
|
3
|
CONSOLIDATED
STATEMENTS OF INCOME
|
4
|
CONSOLIDATED
STATEMENTS OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
|
5
|
CONSOLIDATED
STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
|
6
|
NOTES
TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
|
7
– 10
|
MANAGEMENT
ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL POSITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
|
11
– 29
|
QUANTITATIVE
AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURE ABOUT MARKET RISK
|
30
|
CONTROLS
AND PROCEDURES
|
30
|
PART
II OTHER INFORMATION:
|
|
ITEM
1A – RISK FACTORS
|
31
|
ITEM
6 – EXHIBITS
|
31
|
SIGNATURE
|
32
|
EXHIBIT
INDEX
|
33
|
2
Old
Republic International Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated
Balance Sheets
($
in Millions, Except Share Data)
(Unaudited)
|
|||||||||
September
30,
|
December
31,
|
||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
||||||||
Assets
|
|||||||||
Investments:
|
|||||||||
Available
for sale:
|
|||||||||
Fixed
maturity securities (at fair value)(cost: $7,293.1 and
$6,873.8)
|
$ |
7,274.0
|
$ |
6,832.6
|
|||||
Equity
securities (at fair value)(cost: $596.8 and $534.7)
|
760.9
|
669.1
|
|||||||
Short-term
investments (at fair value which approximates cost)
|
464.5
|
493.6
|
|||||||
Miscellaneous
investments
|
58.5
|
52.7
|
|||||||
Total
|
8,558.1
|
8,048.1
|
|||||||
Other
investments
|
8.1
|
7.9
|
|||||||
Total
investments
|
8,566.2
|
8,056.1
|
|||||||
Other
Assets:
|
|||||||||
Cash
|
90.5
|
71.6
|
|||||||
Securities
and indebtedness of related
parties
|
17.0
|
21.8
|
|||||||
Accrued
investment
income
|
105.6
|
102.9
|
|||||||
Accounts
and notes
receivable
|
936.1
|
962.1
|
|||||||
Federal
income tax recoverable:
Current
|
-
|
15.5
|
|||||||
Prepaid
federal income
taxes
|
536.5
|
468.4
|
|||||||
Reinsurance
balances and funds
held
|
71.7
|
74.2
|
|||||||
Reinsurance
recoverable: Paid
losses
|
68.3
|
58.6
|
|||||||
Policy and claim
reserves
|
2,181.6
|
2,172.7
|
|||||||
Deferred
policy acquisition
costs
|
253.5
|
264.9
|
|||||||
Sundry
assets
|
345.6
|
342.9
|
|||||||
4,606.8
|
4,556.1
|
||||||||
Total
Assets
|
$ |
13,173.1
|
$ |
12,612.2
|
|||||
Liabilities,
Preferred Stock, and Common Shareholders' Equity
|
|||||||||
Liabilities:
|
|||||||||
Losses,
claims and settlement
expenses
|
$ |
5,908.4
|
$ |
5,534.7
|
|||||
Unearned
premiums
|
1,268.6
|
1,209.4
|
|||||||
Other
policyholders’ benefits and
funds
|
189.6
|
188.6
|
|||||||
Total
policy liabilities and
accruals
|
7,366.7
|
6,932.8
|
|||||||
Commissions,
expenses, fees and
taxes
|
232.7
|
243.5
|
|||||||
Reinsurance
balances and
funds
|
313.3
|
314.4
|
|||||||
Federal
income tax payable:
Current
|
9.7
|
-
|
|||||||
Deferred
|
462.7
|
469.4
|
|||||||
Debt
|
93.8
|
144.3
|
|||||||
Sundry
liabilities
|
129.7
|
138.4
|
|||||||
Commitments
and contingent
liabilities
|
|||||||||
Total
Liabilities
|
8,609.1
|
8,243.0
|
|||||||
Preferred
Stock
|
|||||||||
Convertible
preferred stock
(1)
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||
Common
Shareholders’ Equity
|
|||||||||
Common
stock
(1)
|
231.9
|
231.0
|
|||||||
Additional
paid-in
capital
|
341.6
|
319.5
|
|||||||
Retained
earnings
|
3,917.5
|
3,773.9
|
|||||||
Accumulated
other comprehensive
income
|
101.1
|
44.6
|
|||||||
Treasury
stock (at cost)
(1)
|
(28.3 | ) |
-
|
||||||
Total
Common Shareholders’
Equity
|
4,563.9
|
4,369.2
|
|||||||
Total
Liabilities, Preferred
Stock, and Common Shareholders’ Equity
|
$ |
13,173.1
|
$ |
12,612.2
|
(1)
|
At
September 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006, there were 75,000,000 shares
of
$0.01 par value preferred stock authorized, of which no shares were
outstanding. As of the same dates, there were 500,000,000 shares
of common
stock, $1.00 par value, authorized, of which 230,404,322 at September
30,
2007 and 231,047,890 at December 31, 2006 were issued and outstanding.
At
September 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006, there were 100,000,000
shares of
Class B Common Stock, $1.00 par value, authorized, of which no shares
were
issued. Common shares classified as treasury stock were 1,566,100
and 0 as
of September 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006,
respectively.
|
See
accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
|
3
Old
Republic International Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated
Statements of Income (Unaudited)
($
in Millions, Except Share Data)
Quarters
Ended
September
30,
|
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
|||||||||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||||||||
Revenues:
|
||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums
earned
|
$ |
870.1
|
$ |
806.0
|
$ |
2,537.4
|
$ |
2,372.1
|
||||||||
Title,
escrow, and other
fees
|
50.9
|
63.2
|
166.7
|
189.3
|
||||||||||||
Total
premiums and
fees
|
921.1
|
869.2
|
2,704.2
|
2,561.5
|
||||||||||||
Net
investment
income
|
95.1
|
85.6
|
280.4
|
250.9
|
||||||||||||
Other
income
|
9.6
|
7.7
|
31.1
|
26.2
|
||||||||||||
Total
operating
revenues
|
1,025.9
|
962.6
|
3,015.7
|
2,838.8
|
||||||||||||
Realized
investment
gains
|
3.9
|
2.2
|
20.3
|
17.9
|
||||||||||||
Total
revenues
|
1,029.8
|
964.9
|
3,036.0
|
2,856.7
|
||||||||||||
Benefits,
Claims and Expenses:
|
||||||||||||||||
Benefits,
claims, and settlement expenses
|
609.9
|
399.8
|
1,496.3
|
1,136.1
|
||||||||||||
Dividends
to
policyholders
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
6.9
|
5.2
|
||||||||||||
Underwriting,
acquisition, and other expenses
|
381.8
|
391.3
|
1,168.8
|
1,180.0
|
||||||||||||
Interest
and other
charges
|
1.1
|
2.4
|
6.0
|
7.7
|
||||||||||||
Total
expenses
|
994.8
|
795.7
|
2,678.1
|
2,329.2
|
||||||||||||
Income
before income
taxes
|
35.0
|
169.1
|
357.9
|
527.4
|
||||||||||||
Income
Taxes (Credits):
|
||||||||||||||||
Current
|
44.8
|
41.1
|
133.0
|
129.0
|
||||||||||||
Deferred
|
(39.0 | ) |
11.8
|
(27.2 | ) |
38.2
|
||||||||||
Total
|
5.8
|
52.9
|
105.7
|
167.2
|
||||||||||||
Net
Income
|
$ |
29.2
|
$ |
116.1
|
$ |
252.1
|
$ |
360.2
|
||||||||
Net
Income Per Share:
|
||||||||||||||||
Basic
|
$ |
.13
|
$ |
.50
|
$ |
1.09
|
$ |
1.56
|
||||||||
Diluted
|
$ |
.12
|
$ |
.50
|
$ |
1.08
|
$ |
1.55
|
||||||||
Average
shares outstanding: Basic
|
231,014,468
|
230,470,356
|
231,672,204
|
230,456,409
|
||||||||||||
Diluted
|
232,298,642
|
232,517,359
|
233,448,109
|
232,551,819
|
||||||||||||
Dividends
Per Common Share:
|
||||||||||||||||
Cash
|
$ |
.160
|
$ |
.150
|
$ |
.470
|
$ |
.440
|
See
accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
|
4
Old
Republic International Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated
Statements of Comprehensive Income (Unaudited)
($
in Millions)
Quarters
Ended
September
30,
|
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
|||||||||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||||||||
Net
income as reported
|
$ |
29.2
|
$ |
116.1
|
$ |
252.1
|
$ |
360.2
|
||||||||
Other
comprehensive income
(loss):
|
||||||||||||||||
Foreign
currency translation
adjustment
|
7.4
|
-
|
18.9
|
5.2
|
||||||||||||
Unrealized
gains (losses) on
securities:
|
||||||||||||||||
Unrealized
gains arising
during period
|
106.5
|
142.3
|
75.9
|
19.7
|
||||||||||||
Less:
elimination of pretax
realized gains
|
||||||||||||||||
included
in income as
reported
|
3.9
|
2.2
|
20.3
|
17.9
|
||||||||||||
Pretax
unrealized gains on
securities
|
||||||||||||||||
carried
at market
value
|
102.5
|
140.1
|
55.6
|
1.7
|
||||||||||||
Deferred
income
taxes
|
35.8
|
49.0
|
19.4
|
.6
|
||||||||||||
Net
unrealized gains on
securities
|
66.6
|
91.0
|
36.2
|
1.1
|
||||||||||||
Amortization
of pension loss and prior service cost
included in net
periodic
pension cost, net of deferred income taxes
|
.4
|
-
|
1.3
|
-
|
||||||||||||
Net
adjustments
|
74.5
|
91.1
|
56.4
|
6.3
|
||||||||||||
Comprehensive
income
|
$ |
103.8
|
$ |
207.2
|
$ |
308.6
|
$ |
366.6
|
See
accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
|
5
Old
Republic International Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated
Statements of Cash Flows (Unaudited)
($
in Millions)
Nine
Months Ended
|
||||||||
September
30,
|
||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||
Cash
flows from operating activities:
|
||||||||
Net
income
|
$ |
252.1
|
$ |
360.2
|
||||
Adjustments
to reconcile net
income to
|
||||||||
net
cash provided by operating activities:
|
||||||||
Deferred
policy acquisition
costs
|
13.7
|
(5.5 | ) | |||||
Premiums
and other
receivables
|
26.4
|
(24.7 | ) | |||||
Unpaid
claims and related
items
|
400.7
|
233.9
|
||||||
Other
policyholders’ benefits
and
funds
|
20.7
|
49.2
|
||||||
Income
taxes
|
(1.9 | ) | (97.1 | ) | ||||
Prepaid
federal income
taxes
|
(68.1 | ) |
77.3
|
|||||
Reinsurance
balances and
funds
|
(8.9 | ) | (65.3 | ) | ||||
Realized
investment
gains
|
(20.3 | ) | (17.9 | ) | ||||
Accounts
payable, accrued
expenses and
other
|
28.3
|
47.2
|
||||||
Total
|
642.7
|
557.1
|
||||||
Cash
flows from investing activities:
|
||||||||
Fixed
maturity
securities:
|
||||||||
Maturities
and early
calls
|
537.6
|
440.9
|
||||||
Sales
|
27.0
|
68.3
|
||||||
Sales
of:
|
||||||||
Equity
securities
|
73.3
|
18.6
|
||||||
Other
items -
net
|
13.0
|
29.4
|
||||||
Purchases
of:
|
||||||||
Fixed
maturity
securities
|
(986.7 | ) | (406.9 | ) | ||||
Equity
securities
|
(123.8 | ) | (51.1 | ) | ||||
Other
items -
net
|
(24.3 | ) | (30.7 | ) | ||||
Net
decrease (increase) in
short-term
investments
|
30.3
|
(546.0 | ) | |||||
Other
-
net
|
(.8 | ) | (3.6 | ) | ||||
Total
|
(454.2 | ) | (481.3 | ) | ||||
Cash
flows from financing activities:
|
||||||||
Issuance
of debentures and
notes
|
81.3
|
2.0
|
||||||
Issuance
of common
shares
|
14.0
|
11.8
|
||||||
Redemption
of debentures and
notes
|
(131.3 | ) | (.7 | ) | ||||
Dividends
on common
shares
|
(108.5 | ) | (101.2 | ) | ||||
Purchase
of treasury
shares
|
(28.3 | ) |
-
|
|||||
Other
-
net
|
3.3
|
1.0
|
||||||
Total
|
(169.5 | ) | (87.0 | ) | ||||
Increase
(decrease) in cash
|
18.9
|
(11.2 | ) | |||||
Cash,
beginning of
period
|
71.6
|
68.3
|
||||||
Cash,
end of
period
|
$ |
90.5
|
$ |
57.0
|
||||
Supplemental
cash flow information:
|
||||||||
Cash
paid during the period
for: Interest
|
$ |
5.6
|
$ |
5.2
|
||||
Income
taxes
|
$ |
107.2
|
$ |
263.3
|
See
accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
|
6
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
NOTES
TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (Unaudited)
($
in
Millions, Except Share Data)
1.
|
Accounting
Policies and Basis of
Presentation:
|
The
accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared in conformity
with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) as described in the
Company’s latest annual report to shareholders or otherwise disclosed herein.
The financial accounting and reporting process relies on estimates and on the
exercise of judgment, but in the opinion of management all adjustments,
consisting only of normal recurring accruals, necessary for a fair presentation
of the results were recorded for the interim periods. Amounts shown in the
consolidated financial statements and applicable notes are stated (except as
otherwise indicated and as to share data) in millions, which amounts may not
add
to totals shown due to truncation. Necessary reclassifications are made in
prior
periods’ financial statements whenever appropriate to conform to the most
current presentation.
In
July
2006, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued FASB Interpretation
No. 48, Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes (FIN 48) which
became effective for the Company in the first quarter of 2007. FIN 48 provides
recognition criteria and a related measurement model for uncertain tax positions
taken or expected to be taken in income tax returns. FIN 48 requires that a
position taken or expected to be taken in a tax return be recognized in the
financial statements when it is more likely than not that the position would
be
sustained upon examination by tax authorities. The Company’s unrecognized tax
benefits, including interest and penalty accruals, are not considered material
to the consolidated financial statements and did not change significantly upon
the adoption of FIN 48. There are no tax uncertainties that are expected to
result in significant increases or decreases to unrecognized tax benefits within
the next twelve month period. The Company views its income tax exposures as
consisting of timing differences whereby the ultimate deductibility of a tax
position is highly certain but the timing of its deductibility is uncertain.
Such differences relate principally to the timing of deductions for loss and
premium reserves. As in prior examinations, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS)
could assert that claim reserve deductions were overstated thereby reducing
taxable income in any particular year. The Company believes that it establishes
its reserves fairly and consistently at each balance sheet date, and that it
would succeed in defending its tax position in these regards. Because of the
impact of deferred tax accounting, other than possible interest and penalties,
the possible accelerated payment of tax to the IRS would not affect the annual
effective tax rate. The Company classifies interest and penalties as income
tax
expense in the consolidated statement of income. The IRS has audited the
Company’s consolidated Federal income tax returns through year end 2003 and no
significant adjustments ultimately resulted.
2.
|
Common
Share Data:
|
(a)
Earnings Per Share - The following table provides a reconciliation of the income
and number of shares used in basic and diluted earnings per share
calculations.
Quarters
Ended
September
30,
|
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
|||||||||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||||||||
Numerator:
|
||||||||||||||||
Net
Income
|
$ |
29.2
|
$ |
116.1
|
$ |
252.1
|
$ |
360.2
|
||||||||
Numerator
for basic earnings per
share -
|
||||||||||||||||
income
available to common
stockholders
|
29.2
|
116.1
|
252.1
|
360.2
|
||||||||||||
Numerator
for diluted earnings per
share -
|
||||||||||||||||
income
available to common
stockholders
|
||||||||||||||||
after
assumed
conversions
|
$ |
29.2
|
$ |
116.1
|
$ |
252.1
|
$ |
360.2
|
||||||||
Denominator:
|
||||||||||||||||
Denominator
for basic earnings per
share -
|
||||||||||||||||
weighted-average
shares
(1)
|
231,014,468
|
230,470,356
|
231,627,204
|
230,456,409
|
||||||||||||
Effect
of dilutive securities –
stock options
|
1,284,174
|
2,047,003
|
1,820,905
|
2,095,410
|
||||||||||||
Denominator
for diluted earnings
per share -
|
||||||||||||||||
adjusted
weighted-average
shares and
|
||||||||||||||||
assumed
conversions
(1)
|
232,298,642
|
232,517,359
|
233,448,109
|
232,551,819
|
||||||||||||
Earnings
per
share: Basic
|
$ |
.13
|
$ |
.50
|
$ |
1.09
|
$ |
1.56
|
||||||||
Diluted
|
$ |
.12
|
$ |
.50
|
$ |
1.08
|
$ |
1.55
|
(1)
|
Common
share data has been retroactively adjusted to reflect all stock dividends
and splits declared through September 30,
2007.
|
7
3.
|
Unrealized
Appreciation/(Depreciation) of
Investments:
|
Cumulative
net unrealized gains on investments included in a separate account in common
shareholders’ equity amounted to $102.7 at September 30, 2007. Unrealized
appreciation of investments, before applicable deferred income taxes of $55.2
at
September 30, 2007 included gross unrealized gains and (losses) of $241.5 and
$(83.5), respectively.
For
the
nine months ended September 30, 2007 and 2006, net unrealized appreciation
(depreciation) of investments, net of deferred income tax credits, amounted
to
$36.2 and $1.1, respectively.
4.
|
Pension
Plans:
|
The
Company has three defined benefit pension plans covering a portion of its work
force. The three plans are the Old Republic International Salaried Employees
Restated Retirement Plan (the Old Republic Plan), the Bituminous Casualty
Corporation Retirement Income Plan (the Bituminous Plan) and the Old Republic
National Title Group Pension Plan (the Title Plan). The plans are defined
benefit plans pursuant to which pension payments are based primarily on years
of
service and employee compensation near retirement. All three plans are closed
to
new participants. It is the Company’s policy to fund the plans’ costs as they
accrue. Plan assets are comprised principally of bonds, common stocks and
short-term investments.
The
measurement dates used to determine pension measurements are December 31 for
the
Old Republic Plan and the Bituminous Plan and September 30 for the Title
Plan.
The
components of estimated net periodic pension cost for the plans consisted of
the
following:
Quarters
Ended
September
30,
|
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
|||||||||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||||||||
Service
cost
|
$ |
2.3
|
$ |
2.3
|
$ |
7.1
|
$ |
6.9
|
||||||||
Interest
cost
|
3.4
|
3.2
|
10.2
|
9.6
|
||||||||||||
Expected
return on plan
assets
|
(3.9 | ) | (3.6 | ) | (11.9 | ) | (11.0 | ) | ||||||||
Recognized
loss
|
.8
|
.8
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
||||||||||||
Net
cost
|
$ |
2.6
|
$ |
2.6
|
$ |
7.8
|
$ |
7.9
|
The
companies made cash contributions of $5.0 to their pension plans in the third
quarter 2007 and do not expect to make any cash or non-cash contributions to
their pension plans in the fourth quarter 2007.
5.
|
Information
About Segments of
Business:
|
The
Company is engaged in the single business of insurance. It conducts its
operations through three major regulatory segments, namely its General Insurance
(property and liability insurance), Mortgage Guaranty and Title Insurance
Groups. The results of a small life & health insurance business are included
with those of its corporate and minor service operations. Each of the Company’s
segments underwrites and services only those insurance coverages which may
be
written by it pursuant to state insurance regulations and corporate charter
provisions. Segment results exclude net realized investment gains or losses
as
these are aggregated in consolidated totals. The contributions of Old Republic’s
insurance industry segments to consolidated totals are shown in the following
table.
8
Quarters
Ended
September
30,
|
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
|||||||||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||||||||
General
Insurance Group:
|
||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums
earned
|
$ |
549.5
|
$ |
492.7
|
$ |
1,611.4
|
$ |
1,425.7
|
||||||||
Net
investment income and other
income
|
70.0
|
58.4
|
210.1
|
173.8
|
||||||||||||
Total
revenues before realized
gains or losses
|
$ |
619.5
|
$ |
551.1
|
$ |
1,821.5
|
$ |
1,599.6
|
||||||||
Income
before taxes and
realized
investment
gains or losses
(1)
|
$ |
112.7
|
$ |
96.0
|
$ |
324.5
|
$ |
298.3
|
||||||||
Income
tax expense on
above
|
$ |
34.6
|
$ |
28.7
|
$ |
98.9
|
$ |
91.4
|
||||||||
Mortgage
Guaranty Group:
|
||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums
earned
|
$ |
133.9
|
$ |
110.7
|
$ |
377.0
|
$ |
330.0
|
||||||||
Net
investment income and other
income
|
23.0
|
21.3
|
66.4
|
64.3
|
||||||||||||
Total
revenues before realized
gains or losses
|
$ |
157.0
|
$ |
132.0
|
$ |
443.4
|
$ |
394.3
|
||||||||
Income
(loss) before taxes
(credits) and
realized
investment gains or
losses
|
$ | (83.0 | ) | $ |
58.1
|
$ |
2.1
|
$ |
182.0
|
|||||||
Income
tax expense (credit) on
above
|
$ | (30.3 | ) | $ |
19.1
|
$ | (3.0 | ) | $ |
60.1
|
||||||
Title
Insurance Group:
|
||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums
earned
|
$ |
168.1
|
$ |
184.5
|
$ |
491.9
|
$ |
559.2
|
||||||||
Title,
escrow and other
fees
|
50.9
|
63.2
|
166.7
|
189.3
|
||||||||||||
Sub-total
|
219.1
|
247.8
|
658.7
|
748.5
|
||||||||||||
Net
investment income and other
income
|
7.0
|
6.6
|
21.2
|
20.1
|
||||||||||||
Total
revenues before realized
gains or losses
|
$ |
226.1
|
$ |
254.5
|
$ |
679.9
|
$ |
768.7
|
||||||||
Income
(loss) before taxes
(credits) and
realized
investment gains or
losses (1)
|
$ | (3.3 | ) | $ |
10.9
|
$ |
1.0
|
$ |
30.6
|
|||||||
Income
tax expense (credit) on
above
|
$ | (1.4 | ) | $ |
3.5
|
$ | (.8 | ) | $ |
9.7
|
||||||
Consolidated
Revenues:
|
||||||||||||||||
Total
revenues of above Company
segments
|
$ |
1,002.8
|
$ |
937.7
|
$ |
2,945.0
|
$ |
2,762.7
|
||||||||
Other
sources
(2)
|
31.4
|
32.1
|
96.5
|
95.3
|
||||||||||||
Consolidated
net realized
investment gains
|
3.9
|
2.2
|
20.3
|
17.9
|
||||||||||||
Elimination
of intersegment
revenues (3)
|
(8.3 | ) | (7.1 | ) | (25.8 | ) | (19.3 | ) | ||||||||
Consolidated
revenues
|
$ |
1,029.8
|
$ |
964.9
|
$ |
3,036.0
|
$ |
2,856.7
|
||||||||
Consolidated
Income Before Taxes:
|
||||||||||||||||
Total
income before taxes and
realized
investment
gains or losses of
above
Company
segments
|
$ |
26.4
|
$ |
165.0
|
$ |
327.7
|
$ |
511.0
|
||||||||
Other
sources – net
(2)
|
4.6
|
1.8
|
9.9
|
(1.5 | ) | |||||||||||
Consolidated
net realized
investment gains
|
3.9
|
2.2
|
20.3
|
17.9
|
||||||||||||
Consolidated
income before
income taxes
|
$ |
35.0
|
$ |
169.1
|
$ |
357.9
|
$ |
527.4
|
||||||||
Consolidated
Income Tax Expense:
|
||||||||||||||||
Total
income tax expense of
above
Company
segments
|
$ |
2.7
|
$ |
51.5
|
$ |
95.1
|
$ |
161.4
|
||||||||
Other
sources – net
(2)
|
1.6
|
.6
|
3.5
|
(.4 | ) | |||||||||||
Income
tax expense on
consolidated
net
realized investment
gains
|
1.3
|
.7
|
7.1
|
6.2
|
||||||||||||
Consolidated
income tax
expense
|
$ |
5.8
|
$ |
52.9
|
$ |
105.7
|
$ |
167.2
|
9
September
30,
|
December
31,
|
|||||||
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||
Consolidated
Assets:
|
||||||||
General
|
$ |
9,703.6
|
$ |
9,363.5
|
||||
Mortgage
|
2,414.5
|
2,189.6
|
||||||
Title
|
780.1
|
772.7
|
||||||
Other
–
net
(2)
|
458.5
|
443.4
|
||||||
Eliminations
(3)
|
(183.7 | ) | (157.0 | ) | ||||
Consolidated
|
$ |
13,173.1
|
$ |
12,612.2
|
In
the
above tables, net premiums earned on a GAAP basis differ slightly from statutory
amounts due to certain differences in calculations of unearned premium reserves
under each accounting method.
(1)
|
In
the above tables, income before taxes is reported net of interest
charges
on intercompany financing arrangements with Old Republic’s holding company
parent for the following segments: General - $3.4 and $11.7 compared
to
$.3 and $.9 for the quarter and nine months ending September 30,
2007 and
2006, respectively; Title - $.6 and $1.5 for the quarter and nine
months
ending September 30, 2007 compared to zero for the corresponding
2006
periods.
|
(2)
|
Represents
amounts for Old Republic’s holding company parent, minor corporate
services subsidiaries, and a small life and health insurance
operation.
|
(3)
|
Represents
consolidation eliminating
adjustments.
|
|
6.
|
Commitments
and Contingent
Liabilities:
|
Legal
proceedings against the Company arise in the normal course of business and
usually pertain to claim matters related to insurance policies and contracts
issued by its insurance subsidiaries. Other legal proceedings are discussed
below.
Purported
class action lawsuits are pending against the Company’s principal title
insurance subsidiary, Old Republic National Title Insurance Company (“ORNTIC”)
in state courts in Connecticut, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The
plaintiffs allege that, pursuant to rate schedules filed by ORNTIC or by state
rating bureaus with the state insurance regulators, ORNTIC was required to,
but
failed to give consumers reissue credits on the premiums charged for title
insurance covering mortgage refinancing transactions. Substantially similar
lawsuits are also pending against other unaffiliated title insurance companies
in these and other states as well. The actions seek damages and declaratory
and
injunctive relief. ORNTIC intends to defend vigorously against the actions
but,
at this stage in the litigation, the Company cannot estimate the ultimate costs
it may incur as the actions proceed to their conclusions.
10
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
MANAGEMENT
ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL POSITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Nine
Months Ended September 30, 2007 and 2006
($
in
Millions, Except Share Data)
OVERVIEW
|
This
management analysis of financial
position and results of operations pertains to the consolidated accounts of
Old
Republic International Corporation (“Old Republic” or “the Company”). The
Company conducts its operations through three major regulatory segments, namely,
its General (property and liability), Mortgage Guaranty, and Title insurance
segments. A small life and health insurance business, accounting for 2.1% of
consolidated revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2007 and 2.1%
of
consolidated assets as of September 30, 2007, is included within the corporate
and other caption of this financial report. The consolidated accounts are
presented on the basis of generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”).
This management analysis should be read in conjunction with the consolidated
financial statements and the footnotes appended to them.
The
insurance business is distinguished
from most others in that the prices (premiums) charged for various coverages
are
set without certainty of the ultimate benefit and claim costs that will emerge
or be incurred, often many years after issuance of a policy. This basic fact
casts Old Republic’s business as a long-term undertaking which is managed with a
primary focus on the achievement of favorable underwriting results over time.
In
addition to operating income stemming from Old Republic’s basic underwriting and
related services functions, significant revenues are obtained from investable
funds generated by those functions as well as from retained shareholders’
capital. In managing investable funds the Company aims to assure stability
of
income from interest and dividends, protection of capital, and sufficient
liquidity to meet insurance underwriting and other obligations as they become
payable in the future. Securities trading and the realization of capital gains
are not objectives. The investment philosophy is therefore best characterized
as
emphasizing value, credit quality, and relatively long-term holding periods.
The
Company’s ability to hold both fixed maturity and equity securities for long
periods of time is enabled by the scheduling of maturities in contemplation
of
an appropriate matching of assets and liabilities.
In
light of the above factors, the
Company’s affairs are managed for the long run, without regard to the arbitrary
strictures of quarterly or even annual reporting periods that American industry
must observe. In Old Republic’s view, short reporting time frames do not comport
well with the long-term nature of much of its business, driven as it is by
a
strong focus on the fundamental underwriting and related service functions
of
the Company. Management believes that Old Republic’s operating results and
financial condition can best be evaluated by observing underwriting and overall
operating performance trends over succeeding five to ten year intervals. Such
time intervals are likely to encompass one or two economic and/or underwriting
cycles, and provide appropriate time frames for such cycles to run their course
and for reserved claim costs to be quantified with greater finality and
effect.
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
|
Consolidated
results for this year’s third quarter and first nine months were
constrained by difficult operating environments for insurance provided
to
the housing and mortgage lending industries. As a consequence, Old
Republic’s Mortgage Guaranty and Title insurance lines sustained
significant reductions in underwriting profitability. Both segments
registered pretax operating losses in this year’s third quarter and
substantial year-over-year reductions in profits for the nine months
ended
September 30, 2007. Increased profitability in the Company’s General
Insurance business provided a meaningful counterbalance to Mortgage
Guaranty and Title insurance results but its earnings contribution
was not
sufficient to offset fully the profit downturn in those two
segments.
|
11
Consolidated
Results – The major components of Old Republic’s consolidated results
were as follows for the periods shown:
Quarters
Ended September 30,
|
Nine
Months Ended September 30,
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
Change
|
2007
|
2006
|
Change
|
|||||||||||||||||||
Operating
revenues:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
General
insurance
|
$ |
619.5
|
$ |
551.1
|
12.4 | % | $ |
1,821.5
|
$ |
1,599.6
|
13.9 | % | ||||||||||||
Mortgage
guaranty
|
157.0
|
132.0
|
18.9
|
443.4
|
394.3
|
12.4
|
||||||||||||||||||
Title
insurance
|
226.1
|
254.5
|
-11.1
|
679.9
|
768.7
|
-11.5
|
||||||||||||||||||
Corporate
and other
|
23.1
|
24.9
|
70.7
|
76.0
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Total
|
$ |
1,025.9
|
$ |
962.6
|
6.6 | % | $ |
3,015.7
|
$ |
2,838.8
|
6.2 | % | ||||||||||||
Pretax
operating income (loss):
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
General
insurance
|
$ |
112.7
|
$ |
96.0
|
17.5 | % | $ |
324.5
|
$ |
298.3
|
8.8 | % | ||||||||||||
Mortgage
guaranty
|
(83.0 | ) |
58.1
|
-242.8
|
2.1
|
182.0
|
-98.8
|
|||||||||||||||||
Title
insurance
|
(3.3 | ) |
10.9
|
-130.6
|
1.0
|
30.6
|
-96.6
|
|||||||||||||||||
Corporate
and other
|
4.6
|
1.8
|
9.9
|
(1.5 | ) | |||||||||||||||||||
Sub-total
|
31.0
|
166.8
|
-81.4
|
337.6
|
509.5
|
-33.7
|
||||||||||||||||||
Realized
investment gains (losses):
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
From
sales
|
3.9
|
2.2
|
20.3
|
17.9
|
||||||||||||||||||||
From
impairments
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Net
realized investment gains
|
3.9
|
2.2
|
20.3
|
17.9
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Consolidated
pretax income
|
35.0
|
169.1
|
-79.3
|
357.9
|
527.4
|
-32.1
|
||||||||||||||||||
Income
taxes
|
5.8
|
52.9
|
-89.0
|
105.7
|
167.2
|
-36.8
|
||||||||||||||||||
Net
income
|
$ |
29.2
|
$ |
116.1
|
-74.8 | % | $ |
252.1
|
$ |
360.2
|
-30.0 | % | ||||||||||||
Consolidated
underwriting ratio:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
Benefits
and claims ratio
|
66.4 | % | 46.2 | % | 55.6 | % | 44.6 | % | ||||||||||||||||
Expense
ratio
|
40.2
|
43.9
|
41.7
|
44.7
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Composite
ratio
|
106.6 | % | 90.1 | % | 97.3 | % | 89.3 | % | ||||||||||||||||
Components
of diluted
net
income per share:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating income
|
$ |
0.11
|
$ |
0.49
|
-77.6 | % | $ |
1.02
|
$ |
1.50
|
-32.0 | % | ||||||||||||
Net
realized investment gains
|
0.01
|
0.01
|
.06
|
.05
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Net
income
|
$ |
0.12
|
$ |
0.50
|
-76.0 | % | $ |
1.08
|
$ |
1.55
|
-30.3 | % |
The
above table shows both operating
and net income to highlight the effects of realized investment gain or loss
recognition and any non-recurring items on period-to-period comparisons.
Operating income, however, does not replace net income computed in accordance
with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) as a measure of total
profitability.
The
recognition of realized investment
gains or losses can be highly discretionary and arbitrary due to such factors
as
the timing of individual securities sales, recognition of estimated losses
from
write-downs for impaired securities, tax-planning considerations, and changes
in
investment management judgments relative to the direction of securities markets
or the future prospects of individual investees or industry sectors. Likewise,
non-recurring items which may emerge from time to time, can distort the
comparability of the Company’s results from period to period. Accordingly,
management uses net operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, to evaluate
and better explain operating performance, and believes its use enhances an
understanding of Old Republic’s basic business results.
12
General
Insurance Results – Favorable year-over-year earnings comparisons for
Old Republic’s General Insurance Group resulted from very positive underwriting
performance and continued growth of net investment income. Key indicators of
that performance follow:
Quarters
Ended September 30,
|
Nine
Months Ended September 30,
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
Change
|
2007
|
2006
|
Change
|
|||||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums
earned
|
$ |
549.5
|
$ |
492.7
|
11.5 | % | $ |
1,611.4
|
$ |
1,425.7
|
13.0 | % | ||||||||||||
Net
investment
income
|
65.3
|
55.1
|
18.6
|
192.8
|
161.8
|
19.2
|
||||||||||||||||||
Pretax
operating income
|
$ |
112.7
|
$ |
96.0
|
17.5 | % | $ |
324.5
|
$ |
298.3
|
8.8 | % | ||||||||||||
Claims
ratio
|
67.7 | % | 67.3 | % | 66.5 | % | 65.8 | % | ||||||||||||||||
Expense
ratio
|
23.0
|
24.3
|
24.5
|
24.5
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Composite
ratio
|
90.7 | % | 91.6 | % | 91.0 | % | 90.3 | % |
Substantially
all general insurance premium growth in this year’s third quarter and
first nine months stemmed from a new book of contractors liability
insurance acquired in late 2006. Premiums from all other sources
combined
were slightly higher as a moderately declining rate environment is
making
it more difficult to retain or attract business meeting Old Republic’s
underwriting standards. Premium production aside, however, the composite
ratio of claim costs and expenses, the most widely accepted indicator
of
underwriting performance in the industry, continued at the very favorable
levels shown in the above table. This marks the 22nd consecutive
quarter
of positive underwriting performance for the Company’s general insurance
business. Net investment income for the latest reporting periods
of 2007
reflected continued growth by virtue of a greater invested asset
base and
slightly higher investment yields.
|
Mortgage
Guaranty Results – A substantial increase in claims costs in this
year’s third quarter drove Mortgage Guaranty operating results into negative
territory for the first time in 19 years. Key indicators of this reversal in
profitability are shown below.
Quarters
Ended September 30,
|
Nine
Months Ended September 30,
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
Change
|
2007
|
2006
|
Change
|
|||||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums
earned
|
$ |
133.9
|
$ |
110.7
|
21.0 | % | $ |
377.0
|
$ |
330.0
|
14.2 | % | ||||||||||||
Net
investment
income
|
19.9
|
18.4
|
8.1
|
57.9
|
55.3
|
4.7
|
||||||||||||||||||
Pretax
operating income (loss)
|
$ | (83.0 | ) | $ |
58.1
|
-242.8 | % | $ |
2.1
|
$ |
182.0
|
-98.8 | % | |||||||||||
Claims
ratio
|
161.9 | % | 42.5 | % | 96.4 | % | 39.0 | % | ||||||||||||||||
Expense
ratio
|
15.0
|
21.7
|
18.4
|
22.6
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Composite
ratio
|
176.9 | % | 64.2 | % | 114.8 | % | 61.6 | % |
Mortgage
Guaranty premiums rebounded throughout 2007 due to greater utilization
of
traditional mortgage insurance products by lending institutions.
Higher
persistency of traditional insured loans underwritten in prior years
improved to 76.6% as of September 30, 2007 from 71.0% as of the same
date
in 2006. An unprecedented, cyclical downturn in housing and related
mortgage finance markets, however, contributed to much higher claim
costs.
Such costs reflect a continuation of unfavorable loan default trends
since
2006, most pronouncedly in this year’s third quarter. Loans in default
status rose by 18.6% in the latest quarter compared with average
increases
of 6.1% in several recent quarters. While year-to-date paid loss
ratios
were 13.7% higher when compared to the nine months ended in September,
2006, greater claim reserve provisions were required to address a
deteriorating claims environment. As of September 30, 2007, claim
reserves
of $466.5 were 102.0% higher than the like amount twelve months earlier.
Year over year, however, the most significant factor in these regards
stems from greater claim severity emanating from higher insured values
and
fewer loss mitigation opportunities. A declining home price environment,
reduced home sales activity, and tighter lending standards in most
parts
of the nation have conspired to reduce such opportunities. As a
consequence of all these factors, the composite ratios of claims
and
expenses were materially unfavorable for the third quarter and first
nine
months of this year. In the circumstances, the Company does not expect
claims costs to return to more normal levels before
2009.
|
Title
Insurance Results – Old Republic’s Title insurance segment registered a
reduction in profitability in this year’s third quarter. Key performance
indicators follow:
Quarters
Ended September 30,
|
Nine
Months Ended September 30,
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
2006
|
Change
|
2007
|
2006
|
Change
|
|||||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums and fees earned
|
$ |
219.1
|
$ |
247.8
|
-11.6 | % | $ |
658.7
|
$ |
748.5
|
-12.0 | % | ||||||||||||
Net
investment
income
|
6.7
|
6.5
|
2.2
|
20.2
|
19.9
|
1.9
|
||||||||||||||||||
Pretax
operating income (loss)
|
$ | (3.3 | ) | $ |
10.9
|
-130.6 | % | $ |
1.0
|
$ |
30.6
|
-96.6 | % | |||||||||||
Claims
ratio
|
6.8 | % | 6.0 | % | 6.4 | % | 6.0 | % | ||||||||||||||||
Expense
ratio
|
97.5
|
92.2
|
96.3
|
92.4
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Composite
ratio
|
104.3 | % | 98.2 | % | 102.7 | % | 98.4 | % |
13
The
Company’s title business experienced further reductions in premium and fee
revenues amid a continuing downturn in the housing and related mortgage
lending industries. Consistent with the experience of the prior eighteen
months, direct production facilities in the Western United States
sustained the greatest adverse impact in the latest quarter.
Consolidated
title premium and fee revenues dropped by 11.6% in this year’s third
quarter, while operating expenses fell by a lesser 6.2%. For the
first
nine months of the year, these amounts declined by 12.0% and 8.1%,
respectively. Significant efforts to reduce operating costs have
been made
in the past several quarters but substantial challenges remain in
redressing the imbalance between operating revenues and certain relatively
fixed costs. In combination with a slightly higher claims ratio,
these
fluctuations produced the negative underwriting margins evidenced
by the
composite ratios shown in the above table. At this juncture, the
Company
believes that current market conditions affecting the title industry
are
not likely to improve much before
2009.
|
Corporate
and Other Operations – Old Republic’s small life and health business,
and the net costs associated with the parent holding company and its corporate
services subsidiaries produced higher income contributions in 2007.
Period-to-period variability in the results of these relatively minor elements
of the Company’s operations usually stems from the volatility inherent to the
Company’s small scaled life and health business, fluctuations in the timing of
expense recognition related to such variable costs as stock option expenses,
interest income on intercompany financing arrangements, and costs associated
with a relatively small debt level.
Cash,
Invested Assets, and Shareholders’ Equity – The following table
reflects Old Republic’s consolidated cash and invested assets as well as
shareholders’ equity at the dates shown:
%
Change
|
||||||||||||||||||||
September
2007
|
December
2006
|
September
2006
|
Sept
‘07/
Dec
‘06
|
Sept
‘07/
Sept
‘06
|
||||||||||||||||
Cash
and invested
assets
|
$ |
8,762.4
|
$ |
8,230.8
|
$ |
7,839.3
|
6.4 | % | 11.8 | % | ||||||||||
Shareholders’
equity:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Total
|
4,563.9
|
4,369.2
|
4,311.6
|
4.5
|
5.9
|
|||||||||||||||
Per
share
|
$ |
19.81
|
$ |
18.91
|
$ |
18.71
|
4.8 | % | 5.9 | % | ||||||||||
Composition
of shareholders’ equity per share:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Equity
before items
below
|
$ |
19.37
|
$ |
18.72
|
$ |
18.42
|
3.5 | % | 5.2 | % | ||||||||||
Unrealized
investment gains or losses and other accumulated comprehensive
income
|
0.44
|
0.19
|
0.29
|
|||||||||||||||||
Total
|
$ |
19.81
|
$ |
18.91
|
$ |
18.71
|
4.8 | % | 5.9 | % |
Cash
flow from operating activities of
$642.7 for the first nine months of 2007 compares with the $557.1 registered
in
the same period of 2006. These cash flows were additive to the invested asset
base although their full benefit was curbed somewhat by the June 2007 repayment
of matured corporate debt of $115.0. Through September 30, 2007 the Company
raised its commercial paper borrowings by $71.0 to $90.0 to accommodate general
corporate uses.
The
investment portfolio reflects a
current allocation of approximately 85% to fixed-maturity securities and 9%
to
equities most of which are committed to several indexed stock portfolios. As
has
been the case for many years, Old Republic’s invested assets are managed in
consideration of enterprise-wide risk management objectives and to assure solid
funding of its subsidiaries’ long-term obligations to insurance policyholders
and other beneficiaries. As a result, it contains little or no exposure to
real
estate investments, mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations,
derivatives, junk bonds, illiquid private equity investments, or mortgage
loans.
Substantially
all of the changes in the
shareholders’ equity account for the periods reported upon reflect earnings
retained in excess of dividend payments. Pursuant to standing
authority, the Company reacquired a total of 1,566,100 shares of its common
stock during this year’s third quarter for $28.3 or $18.13 per
share. A summary of all changes affecting book value per share
follows:
Nine
Months
Ended
September
30,
2007
|
Fiscal
Year
Ended
September
30,
2007
|
|||||||
Beginning
book value per
share
|
$ |
18.91
|
$ |
18.71
|
||||
Changes
in shareholders’ equity for the periods:
|
||||||||
Net
operating
income
|
1.03
|
1.49
|
||||||
Net
realized investment gains
(losses)
|
.06
|
.06
|
||||||
Net
unrealized investment gains
(losses)
|
.16
|
.22
|
||||||
Cash
dividends
|
(.47 | ) | (.62 | ) | ||||
Treasury
stock
acquired
|
.01
|
.01
|
||||||
Stock
issuance, foreign
exchange, and other transactions
|
.11
|
(.06 | ) | |||||
Net
change
|
.90
|
1.10
|
||||||
Ending
book value per
share
|
$ |
19.81
|
$ |
19.81
|
14
TECHNICAL
MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS
|
CRITICAL
ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
|
The
Company’s annual and interim
financial statements incorporate a large number and types of estimates relative
to matters which are highly uncertain at the time the estimates are made. The
estimation process required of an insurance enterprise is by its very nature
highly dynamic inasmuch as it necessitates a continual process of evaluating,
analyzing, and quantifying factual data as it becomes known to the Company.
As a
result, actual experienced outcomes can differ from the estimates made at any
point in time, and thus affect future periods’ reported revenues, expenses, net
income, and financial condition.
Old
Republic believes that its most
critical accounting estimates relate to: a) the determination of
other-than-temporary impairments in the value of fixed maturity and equity
investments; b) the establishment of deferred acquisition costs which vary
directly with the production of insurance premiums; c) the recoverability of
reinsured paid and/or outstanding losses; and d) the reserves for losses and
loss adjustment expenses. The major assumptions and methods used in the
establishment of these estimates are discussed in the Company’s 2006 Annual
Report on Form 10K.
CHANGES
IN ACCOUNTING POLICIES
|
In
July 2006, the Financial Accounting
Standards Board (FASB) issued its Interpretation No. 48 (“FIN 48”),
Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes, which became effective for
the Company in the first quarter of 2007. FIN 48 provides recognition criteria
and a related measurement model for uncertain tax positions taken or expected
to
be taken in income tax returns. FIN 48 requires that a position taken or
expected to be taken in a tax return be recognized in the financial statements
when it is more likely than not that the position would be sustained upon
examination by tax authorities. The Company’s unrecognized tax benefits,
including interest and penalty accruals, are not considered material to the
consolidated financial statements and did not change significantly upon the
adoption of FIN 48. There are no tax uncertainties that are expected to result
in significant increases or decreases to unrecognized tax benefits within the
next twelve month period. As indicated in Note 1 of the Notes to Consolidated
Financial Statements, the Company believes that the major uncertainties relating
to its tax position pertain to timing differences in the recognition of taxable
income. Accordingly, the annual effective tax rate, other than possible interest
and penalties, would be largely unaffected as an increase in currently due
income taxes would likely be offset by a corresponding deferred income tax
adjustment.
FINANCIAL
POSITION
|
The
Company’s financial position at
September 30, 2007 reflected increases in assets, liabilities and common
shareholders’ equity of 4.4%, 4.4%, and 4.5%, respectively, when compared to the
immediately preceding year-end. Cash and invested assets represented 66.5%
and
65.3% of consolidated assets as of September 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006,
respectively. Consolidated operating cash flow was positive at $642.7 in the
first nine months of 2007 compared to $557.1 in the same period of 2006. As
of
September 30, 2007, the invested asset base increased 6.3% to $8,566.2
principally as a result of positive operating cash flow in excess of debt
repayments and dividends on common shares.
During
the first nine months of 2007
and 2006, the Company committed substantially all investable funds to short
to
intermediate-term fixed maturity securities. At both September 30, 2007 and
2006, approximately 99% of the Company’s investments consisted of marketable
securities. Old Republic continues to adhere to its long-term policy of
investing primarily in investment grade, marketable securities. Investable
funds
have not been directed to so-called "junk bonds" or types of securities
categorized as derivatives. At September 30, 2007, the Company had no fixed
maturity investments in default as to principal and/or interest.
Relatively
high short-term maturity
investment positions continued to be maintained as of September 30, 2007. Such
positions reflect a large variety of seasonal and intermediate-term factors
including current operating needs, expected operating cash flows, quarter-end
cash flow seasonality, and investment strategy considerations. Accordingly,
the
future level of short-term investments will vary and respond to the interplay
of
these factors and may, as a result, increase or decrease from current
levels.
The
Company does not own or utilize
derivative financial instruments for the purpose of hedging, enhancing the
overall return of its investment portfolio, or reducing the cost of its debt
obligations. With regard to its equity portfolio, the Company does not own
any
options nor does it engage in any type of option writing. Traditional investment
management tools and techniques are employed to address the yield and valuation
exposures of the invested assets base. The long-term fixed maturity investment
portfolio is managed so as to limit various risks inherent in the bond market.
Credit risk is addressed through asset diversification and the purchase of
investment grade securities. Reinvestment rate risk is reduced by concentrating
on non-callable issues, and by taking asset-liability matching considerations
into account. Purchases of mortgage and asset backed securities are generally
avoided. Market value risk is limited through the purchase of bonds of
intermediate maturity. The combination of these investment management practices
is expected to produce a more stable long-term fixed maturity investment
portfolio that is not subject to extreme interest rate sensitivity and principal
deterioration.
15
The
market
value of the Company’s long-term fixed maturity investment portfolio is
sensitive, however, to fluctuations in the level of interest rates, but not
materially affected by changes in anticipated cash flows caused by any
prepayments. The impact of interest rate movements on the long-term fixed
maturity investment portfolio generally affects net unrealized gains or losses.
As a general rule, rising interest rates enhance currently available yields
but
typically lead to a reduction in the fair value of existing fixed maturity
investments. By contrast, a decline in such rates reduces currently available
yields but usually serves to increase the fair value of the existing fixed
maturity investment portfolio. All such changes in fair value are reflected,
net
of deferred income taxes, directly in the shareholders’ equity account, and as a
separate component of the statement of comprehensive income. Given the Company’s
inability to forecast or control the movement of interest rates, Old Republic
sets the maturity spectrum of its fixed maturity securities portfolio within
parameters of estimated liability payouts, and focuses the overall portfolio
on
high quality investments. By so doing, Old Republic believes it is reasonably
assured of its ability to hold securities to maturity as it may deem necessary
in changing environments, and of ultimately recovering their aggregate
cost.
Possible
future declines in fair values
for Old Republic’s bond and stock portfolios would affect negatively the common
shareholders’ equity account at any point in time, but would not necessarily
result in the recognition of realized investment losses. The Company reviews
the
status and market value changes of each of its investments on at least a
quarterly basis during the year, and estimates of other than temporary
impairments in the portfolio’s value are evaluated and established at each
quarterly balance sheet date. In reviewing investments for other than temporary
impairment, the Company, in addition to a security’s market price history,
considers the totality of such factors as the issuer’s operating results,
financial condition and liquidity, its ability to access capital markets, credit
rating trends, most current audit opinion, industry and securities markets
conditions, and analyst expectations to reach its conclusions. Sudden market
value declines caused by such adverse developments as newly emerged or imminent
bankruptcy filings, issuer default on significant obligations, or reports of
financial accounting developments that bring into question the validity of
previously reported earnings or financial condition, are recognized as realized
losses as soon as credible publicly available information emerges to confirm
such developments. Accordingly, the recognition of losses from other than
temporary value impairments is subject to a great deal of judgment as well
as
turns of events over which the Company can exercise little or no control. In
the
event the Company’s estimate of other than temporary impairments is insufficient
at any point in time, future periods’ net income would be affected adversely by
the recognition of additional realized or impairment losses, but its financial
condition would not necessarily be affected adversely inasmuch as such losses,
or a portion of them, could have been recognized previously as unrealized
losses.
The
following tables show certain
information relating to the Company’s fixed maturity and equity portfolios as of
the dates shown:
Credit
Quality Ratings of Fixed Maturity Securities
(1)
|
September
30,
|
December
31,
|
|||||||
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||
Aaa
|
33.5 | % | 32.9 | % | ||||
Aa
|
17.2
|
19.0
|
||||||
A
|
27.2
|
26.4
|
||||||
Baa
|
20.5
|
20.1
|
||||||
Total
investment
grade
|
98.4
|
98.4
|
||||||
All
other (2)
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
||||||
Total
|
100.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
(1)
|
Credit
quality ratings used are those assigned primarily by Moody’s; other
ratings are assigned by Standard & Poor’s and converted to equivalent
Moody’s ratings classifications.
|
(2)
|
“All
other” includes non-investment grade or non-rated small issues of
tax-exempt bonds.
|
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Industry Concentration for Non-Investment
Grade Fixed Maturity Securities
|
September
30, 2007
|
Amortized
Cost
|
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
|
|||
Fixed
Maturity Securities by Industry Concentration:
|
||||
Service
|
$
27.9
|
$
2.6
|
||
Consumer
Durables
|
17.5
|
.9
|
||
Retail
|
18.0
|
.8
|
||
Financial
|
13.9
|
.6
|
||
Other
(includes 4 industry
groups)
|
16.0
|
.4
|
||
Total
|
$
93.6
|
(3)
|
$
5.5
|
(3)
|
Represents
1.3% of the total fixed maturity securities
portfolio.
|
16
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Industry Concentration for Investment
Grade Fixed Maturity Securities
|
September
30, 2007
|
||||
Amortized
Cost
|
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
|
|||
Fixed
Maturity Securities by Industry Concentration:
|
||||
Utilities
|
$ 525.7
|
$
11.5
|
||
Municipals
|
1,240.5
|
10.0
|
||
Financial
|
181.6
|
3.8
|
||
Service
|
142.1
|
3.5
|
||
Other
(includes 17 industry groups)
|
2,091.5
|
34.3
|
||
Total
|
$ 4,181.6
|
(4)
|
$
63.3
|
(4)
|
Represents
57.3 % of the total fixed maturity securities
portfolio.
|
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Industry Concentration for Equity
Securities
|
September
30, 2007
|
|||||
Cost
|
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
|
||||
Equity
Securities by Industry Concentration:
|
|||||
Banking
|
$
42.0
|
$
3.2
|
|||
Health
Care
|
25.9
|
1.4
|
|||
Service
|
5.0
|
1.3
|
|||
Industrials
|
9.2
|
1.3
|
|||
Other
(includes 5 industry
groups)
|
35.0
|
1.6
|
|||
Total
|
$ 117.4
|
(5)
|
$
9.1
|
(6)
|
(5) Represents
19.7% of the total equity securities portfolio.
(6)
|
Represents
1.5% of the cost of the total equity securities portfolio, while
gross
unrealized gains represent 29.0% of the
portfolio.
|
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Maturity Ranges For All Fixed Maturity
Securities
|
September
30, 2007
|
||||||||||||||||
Amortized
Costs of
Fixed
Maturity Securities
|
Gross
Unrealized Losses
|
|||||||||||||||
All
|
Non
Investment
Grade
Only
|
All
|
Non
Investment
Grade
Only
|
|||||||||||||
Maturity
Ranges:
|
||||||||||||||||
Due
in one year or
less
|
$ |
444.2
|
$ |
2.0
|
$ |
2.1
|
$ |
-
|
||||||||
Due
after one year through five
years
|
1,770.4
|
83.9
|
28.4
|
4.3
|
||||||||||||
Due
after five years through
ten years
|
2,032.3
|
7.6
|
38.0
|
1.2
|
||||||||||||
Due
after ten
years
|
28.1
|
-
|
.3
|
-
|
||||||||||||
Total
|
$ |
4,275.2
|
$ |
93.6
|
$ |
68.9
|
$ |
5.5
|
17
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Duration and Amount of Unrealized
Losses
|
September
30, 2007
|
||||||||||||||||
Amount
of Gross Unrealized Losses
|
||||||||||||||||
Less
than
20%
of Cost
|
20%
to 50%
of Cost
|
More
than
50%
of Cost
|
Total
Gross
Unrealized
Loss
|
|||||||||||||
Number
of Months in Loss Position:
|
||||||||||||||||
Fixed
Maturity Securities:
|
||||||||||||||||
One
to six
months
|
$ |
5.4
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
5.4
|
||||||||
Seven
to twelve
months
|
3.1
|
-
|
-
|
3.1
|
||||||||||||
More
than twelve
months
|
59.8
|
.5
|
-
|
60.3
|
||||||||||||
Total
|
$ |
68.3
|
$ |
.5
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
68.9
|
||||||||
Equity
Securities:
|
||||||||||||||||
One
to six
months
|
$ |
7.7
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
7.7
|
||||||||
Seven
to twelve
months
|
-
|
1.3
|
-
|
1.3
|
||||||||||||
More
than twelve
months
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
||||||||||||
Total
|
$ |
7.7
|
$ |
1.3
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
9.1
|
||||||||
Number
of Issues in Loss Position:
|
|||||||||||||||||
Fixed
Maturity Securities:
|
|||||||||||||||||
One
to six
months
|
149
|
-
|
-
|
149
|
|||||||||||||
Seven
to twelve
months
|
153
|
-
|
-
|
153
|
|||||||||||||
More
than twelve
months
|
769
|
1
|
-
|
770
|
|||||||||||||
Total
|
1,071
|
1
|
-
|
1,072
|
(7) | ||||||||||||
Equity
Securities:
|
|||||||||||||||||
One
to six
months
|
19
|
-
|
-
|
19
|
|||||||||||||
Seven
to twelve
months
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
|||||||||||||
More
than twelve
months
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
|||||||||||||
Total
|
19
|
2
|
-
|
21
|
(7) |
(7)
|
At
September 30, 2007 the number of issues in an unrealized loss position
represent 54.5% as to fixed maturities, and 27.6 % as to equity securities
of the total number of such issues held by the
Company.
|
The
aging
of issues with unrealized losses employs closing market price comparisons with
an issue’s original cost. The percentage reduction from original cost reflects
the decline as of a specific point in time (September 30, 2007 in the previous
table) and, accordingly, is not indicative of a security’s value having been
consistently below its cost at the percentages and throughout the periods
shown.
Age
Distribution of Fixed Maturity
Securities
|
September
30,
|
December
31,
|
|||||||
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||
Maturity
Ranges:
|
||||||||
Due
in one year or
less
|
10.8 | % | 9.6 | % | ||||
Due
after one year through
five
years
|
45.1
|
44.4
|
||||||
Due
after five years through
ten
years
|
43.5
|
45.6
|
||||||
Due
after ten years through
fifteen
years
|
.6
|
.4
|
||||||
Due
after fifteen
years
|
-
|
-
|
||||||
Total
|
100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | ||||
Average
Maturity in
Years
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
||||||
Duration
(8)
|
3.9
|
3.9
|
(8)
|
Duration
is used as a measure of bond price sensitivity to interest rate changes.
A
duration of 3.9% as of September 30, 2007 implies that a 100 basis
point
parallel increase in interest rates from current levels would result
in a
possible decline in the market value of the long-term fixed maturity
investment portfolio of approximately
3.9%.
|
18
Composition
of Unrealized Gains (Losses)
|
September
30,
|
December
31,
|
|||||||
2007
|
2006
|
|||||||
Fixed
Maturity Securities:
|
||||||||
Amortized
cost
|
$ |
7,293.1
|
$ |
6,873.8
|
||||
Estimated
fair
value
|
7,274.0
|
6,832.6
|
||||||
Gross
unrealized
gains
|
49.8
|
46.6
|
||||||
Gross
unrealized
losses
|
(68.9 | ) | (87.8 | ) | ||||
Net
unrealized
losses
|
$ | (19.0 | ) | $ | (41.2 | ) | ||
Equity
Securities:
|
||||||||
Cost
|
$ |
596.8
|
$ |
534.7
|
||||
Estimated
fair
value
|
760.9
|
669.1
|
||||||
Gross
unrealized
gains
|
173.2
|
136.1
|
||||||
Gross
unrealized
losses
|
(9.1 | ) | (1.8 | ) | ||||
Net
unrealized
gains
|
$ |
164.1
|
$ |
134.3
|
Among
other major assets, substantially
all of the Company’s receivables are not past due. Reinsurance recoverable
balances on paid or estimated unpaid losses are deemed recoverable from solvent
reinsurers or have otherwise been reduced by allowances for estimated amounts
unrecoverable. Deferred policy acquisition costs are estimated by taking into
account the variable costs of producing specific types of insurance policies,
and evaluating their recoverability on the basis of recent trends in claims
costs. The Company’s deferred policy acquisition cost balances have not
fluctuated substantially from period-to-period and do not represent significant
percentages of assets or shareholders’ equity.
The
parent holding company meets its
liquidity and capital needs principally through dividends paid by its
subsidiaries. The insurance subsidiaries' ability to pay cash dividends to
the
parent company is generally restricted by law or subject to approval of the
insurance regulatory authorities of the states in which they are domiciled.
The
Company can receive up to $533.6 in dividends from its subsidiaries in 2007
without the prior approval of regulatory authorities. The liquidity achievable
through such permitted dividend payments is more than adequate to cover the
parent holding company’s currently expected cash outflows represented mostly by
interest on outstanding debt and quarterly cash dividend payments to
shareholders. In addition, Old Republic can access the commercial paper market
for up to $250.0 to meet unanticipated liquidity needs of which $90.0 was
outstanding at September 30, 2007.
Old
Republic’s total capitalization of
$4,657.8 at September 30, 2007 consisted of debt of $93.8 and common
shareholders' equity of $4,563.9. Changes in the common shareholders’ equity
account reflect primarily the retention of earnings in excess of dividend
requirements. Old Republic has paid cash dividends to its shareholders without
interruption since 1942, and has increased the regular annual rate in each
of
the past 25 years. The annual dividend rate is typically reviewed and approved
by the Board of Directors in the first quarter of each year. In establishing
each year’s cash dividend rate the Company does not follow a strict formulaic
approach. Rather, it favors a gradual rise in the annual dividend rate that
is
largely reflective of long-term consolidated operating earnings trends.
Accordingly, each year’s dividend rate is set judgmentally in consideration of
such key factors as the dividend paying capacity of the Company’s insurance
subsidiaries, the trends in average annual statutory and GAAP earnings for
the
six most recent calendar years, and management’s long-term expectations for the
Company’s consolidated business. At its February, 2007 meeting, the Board of
Directors approved a new quarterly cash dividend rate of 16 cents per share
effective in the second quarter of 2007, up from 15 cents per share, subject
to
the usual quarterly authorizations.
At
its May, 2006 meeting, the Company’s
Board of Directors authorized the reacquisition of up to $500.0 of common shares
as market conditions warrant during the two year period from that date. In
the
third quarter 2007, the Company reacquired 1,566,100 shares of its common stock
for $28.3 or $18.13 per share. As of September
30, 2007, a total of $471.6 of this authorization remains
unutilized.
RESULTS
OF OPERATIONS
|
Revenues: Premiums
& Fees
|
Pursuant
to GAAP applicable to the
insurance industry, revenues are associated with the related benefits, claims,
and expenses.
Substantially
all general insurance
premiums are reflected in income on a pro-rata basis. Earned but unbilled
premiums are generally taken into income on the billing date, while adjustments
for retrospective premiums, commissions and similar charges or credits are
accrued on the basis of periodic evaluations of current underwriting experience
and contractual obligations. The Company’s mortgage guaranty premiums primarily
stem from monthly installment policies. Accordingly, such premiums are generally
written and earned in the month coverage is effective. With respect to minor
numbers of annual or single premium policies, earned premiums are largely
recognized on a pro-rata basis over the terms of the policies. Title premium
and
fee revenues stemming from the Company’s direct operations
19
(which
include branch offices of its title insurers and wholly owned subsidiaries
of
the Company) represent approximately 33% of 2007 consolidated title business
revenues. Such premiums are generally recognized as income at the escrow closing
date which approximates the policy effective date. Fee income related to escrow
and other closing services is recognized when the related services have been
performed and completed. The remaining 67% of consolidated title premium and
fee
revenues is produced by independent title agents and underwritten title
companies. Rather than making estimates that could be subject to significant
variance from actual premium and fee production, the Company recognizes revenues
from those sources upon receipt. Such receipts can reflect a three to four
month
lag relative to the effective date of the underlying title policy, and are
offset concurrently by production expenses and claim reserve
provisions.
The
major sources of Old Republic’s
earned premiums and fees for the periods shown were as follows:
Earned
Premiums and Fees
|
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Other
|
Total
|
%
Change
from
prior
period
|
|||||||||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
$ |
1,623.0
|
$ |
403.2
|
$ |
1,025.2
|
$ |
64.6
|
$ |
3,116.1
|
6.1 | % | ||||||||||||
2005
|
1,805.2
|
429.5
|
1,081.8
|
70.3
|
3,386.9
|
8.7
|
||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
1,902.1
|
444.3
|
980.0
|
74.1
|
3,400.5
|
.4
|
||||||||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
1,425.7
|
330.0
|
748.5
|
57.2
|
2,561.5
|
2.4
|
||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
1,611.4
|
377.0
|
658.7
|
57.0
|
2,704.2
|
5.6
|
||||||||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
492.7
|
110.7
|
247.8
|
18.0
|
869.2
|
.6
|
||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
$ |
549.5
|
$ |
133.9
|
$ |
219.1
|
$ |
18.6
|
$ |
921.1
|
6.0 | % |
The
percentage allocation of net
premiums earned for major insurance coverages in the General Insurance Group
was
as follows:
General
Insurance Earned Premiums by Type of
Coverage
|
Commercial
Automobile
(mostly
trucking)
|
Workers’
Compensation
|
Financial
Indemnity
|
Inland
Marine
and
Property
|
General
Liability
|
Other
|
|||||||||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
37.9 | % | 21.8 | % | 11.8 | % | 11.3 | % | 5.8 | % | 11.4 | % | ||||||||||||
2005
|
39.2
|
21.9
|
10.3
|
11.0
|
5.4
|
12.2
|
||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
39.8
|
21.7
|
11.0
|
10.7
|
5.1
|
11.7
|
||||||||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
39.7
|
21.8
|
10.9
|
10.6
|
5.0
|
12.0
|
||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
35.5
|
23.5
|
13.6
|
9.1
|
7.8
|
10.5
|
||||||||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
39.4
|
21.6
|
11.3
|
10.4
|
5.0
|
12.3
|
||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
34.8 | % | 21.8 | % | 16.2 | % | 8.9 | % | 7.8 | % | 10.5 | % |
The
following tables provide
information on production and related risk exposure trends for Old Republic’s
Mortgage Guaranty Group.
Mortgage
Guaranty Production by Type
|
New
Insurance Written:
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
|
Other
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
$ |
24,749.4
|
$ |
4,487.8
|
$ |
7,324.7
|
$ |
36,562.0
|
||||||||
2005
|
20,554.5
|
9,944.3
|
498.2
|
30,997.1
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
17,187.0
|
13,716.7
|
583.7
|
31,487.5
|
||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
12,914.6
|
7,588.4
|
520.1
|
21,023.2
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
21,174.3
|
10,667.5
|
443.9
|
32,285.7
|
||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
4,561.5
|
3,349.5
|
379.3
|
8,290.4
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
$ |
9,398.8
|
$ |
2,180.5
|
$ |
197.1
|
$ |
11,776.5
|
20
New
Risk Written by Type:
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
|
Other
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
$ |
6,100.2
|
$ |
112.4
|
$ |
89.9
|
$ |
6,302.5
|
||||||||
2005
|
5,112.4
|
1,053.1
|
11.7
|
6,177.4
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
4,246.8
|
1,146.6
|
12.2
|
5,405.7
|
||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
3,210.6
|
571.6
|
11.1
|
3,793.4
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
5,199.6
|
696.3
|
10.7
|
5,906.7
|
||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
1,131.3
|
249.1
|
8.1
|
1,388.7
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
$ |
2,352.5
|
$ |
161.7
|
$ |
3.4
|
$ |
2,517.8
|
Premium
and PersistencyTrends by Type:
|
Earned
Premiums
|
Persistency
|
||||||||||||||
Direct
|
Net
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
(1)
|
|||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
$ |
483.6
|
$ |
403.2
|
64.5 | % | 55.7 | % | ||||||||
2005
|
508.0
|
429.5
|
65.5
|
59.5
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
524.7
|
444.3
|
73.1
|
70.5
|
||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
389.6
|
330.0
|
71.0
|
69.8
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
444.2
|
377.0
|
76.6 | % | 67.6 | % | ||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
130.8
|
110.7
|
||||||||||||||
2007
|
$ |
157.4
|
$ |
133.9
|
|
(1)
Due to the relative immaturity of the bulk business, the above
trends may
prove to be highly volatile.
|
Risk
in Force
|
Net
Risk in Force:
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
|
Other
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
$ |
15,452.2
|
$ |
834.8
|
$ |
580.9
|
$ |
16,868.0
|
||||||||
2005
|
14,711.2
|
1,758.8
|
586.1
|
17,056.2
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
14,582.1
|
2,471.1
|
578.9
|
17,632.2
|
||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
14,544.5
|
1,986.3
|
595.0
|
17,125.8
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
$ |
17,070.6
|
$ |
2,641.7
|
$ |
507.3
|
$ |
20,219.7
|
Analysis
of Risk in Force
|
By
Fair Issac & Company (“FICO”) Scores:
|
FICO
less
than
620
|
FICO
620
to
680
|
FICO
Greater
than
680
|
Unscored/
Unavailable
|
||||||||||||
Traditional
Primary:
|
||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
8.6 | % | 31.1 | % | 51.4 | % | 8.9 | % | ||||||||
2005
|
8.3
|
31.8
|
53.1
|
6.8
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
8.5
|
32.6
|
54.6
|
4.3
|
||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
8.4
|
32.6
|
54.4
|
4.6
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
8.7 | % | 33.7 | % | 54.4 | % | 3.2 | % | ||||||||
Bulk(1):
|
||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
11.5 | % | 45.4 | % | 40.9 | % | 2.2 | % | ||||||||
2005
|
21.2
|
38.7
|
38.7
|
1.4
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
24.1
|
35.7
|
39.8
|
.4
|
||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
22.6
|
36.6
|
40.3
|
.5
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
19.7 | % | 35.1 | % | 45.0 | % | .2 | % |
21
By
Loan to Value (“LTV”) Ratio:
|
LTV
less
than
85
|
LTV
85
to 90
|
LTV
90
to 95
|
LTV
Greater
than
95
|
||||||||||||
Traditional
Primary:
|
||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
5.7 | % | 36.8 | % | 42.0 | % | 15.5 | % | ||||||||
2005
|
5.4
|
37.7
|
39.1
|
17.8
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
5.0
|
37.4
|
36.0
|
21.6
|
||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
5.1
|
37.5
|
36.8
|
20.6
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
4.7 | % | 35.2 | % | 32.5 | % | 27.6 | % | ||||||||
Bulk(1):
|
||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
66.4 | % | 16.9 | % | 12.9 | % | 3.8 | % | ||||||||
2005
|
57.3
|
27.4
|
11.6
|
3.7
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
63.4
|
23.1
|
9.0
|
4.5
|
||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
60.6
|
26.1
|
9.8
|
3.5
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
62.6 | % | 20.8 | % | 9.2 | % | 7.4 | % |
By
Top Ten States:
|
Traditional
Primary Risk in Force
|
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
PA
|
NJ
|
MN
|
NC
|
CA
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
9.1 | % | 6.6 | % | 6.6 | % | 5.5 | % | 3.7 | % | 3.6 | % | 3.1 | % | 3.4 | % | 4.7 | % | 3.9 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
9.0
|
7.1
|
6.3
|
5.4
|
3.7
|
3.8
|
3.1
|
3.2
|
4.7
|
3.6
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
9.0
|
7.5
|
5.8
|
5.4
|
3.7
|
4.0
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
4.8
|
3.1
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of September 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
9.0
|
7.4
|
5.9
|
5.4
|
3.6
|
4.0
|
3.0
|
3.2
|
4.8
|
3.2
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
8.9 | % | 7.7 | % | 5.4 | % | 5.2 | % | 3.5 | % | 3.9 | % | 3.1 | % | 3.0 | % | 4.6 | % | 3.6 | % |
Bulk
Risk in Force (1)
|
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
CO
|
NJ
|
CA
|
AZ
|
NY
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
8.7 | % | 4.8 | % | 3.3 | % | 3.1 | % | 2.1 | % | 2.3 | % | 6.3 | % | 18.9 | % | 3.0 | % | 12.5 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
8.3
|
4.5
|
3.3
|
4.9
|
3.6
|
2.7
|
3.8
|
19.0
|
4.0
|
6.3
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
9.4
|
4.8
|
3.6
|
4.5
|
3.4
|
2.8
|
3.2
|
17.7
|
4.4
|
4.6
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
8.1
|
4.3
|
3.3
|
4.5
|
3.3
|
2.7
|
3.9
|
20.6
|
4.2
|
7.3
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
9.0 | % | 4.8 | % | 4.2 | % | 4.0 | % | 3.2 | % | 3.0 | % | 3.5 | % | 17.4 | % | 4.2 | % | 5.7 | % |
By
level of Documentation:
|
Full
Documentation
|
Reduced
Documentation
|
||||||
Traditional
Primary:
|
||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||
2004
|
93.2 | % | 6.8 | % | ||||
2005
|
90.6
|
9.4
|
||||||
2006
|
89.4
|
10.6
|
||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||
2006
|
89.8
|
10.2
|
||||||
2007
|
87.8 | % | 12.2 | % | ||||
Bulk
(1):
|
||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||
2004
|
34.0 | % | 66.0 | % | ||||
2005
|
51.9
|
48.1
|
||||||
2006
|
51.9
|
48.1
|
||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||
2006
|
49.2
|
50.8
|
||||||
2007
|
49.3 | % | 50.7 | % |
(1)
|
Bulk
pool risk in-force, which represented 44.0% of total bulk risk in-force
at
September 30, 2007, has been allocated pro-rata based on insurance
in-force.
|
22
The
following table shows the percentage distribution of Title Group premium
and fee
revenues by production sources:
Title
Production
|
Direct
Operations
|
Independent
Title
Agents
& Other
|
|||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||
2004
|
38.1 | % | 61.9 | % | ||||
2005
|
37.1
|
62.9
|
||||||
2006
|
32.3
|
67.7
|
||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||
2006
|
32.6
|
67.4
|
||||||
2007
|
32.6
|
67.4
|
||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||
2006
|
33.2
|
66.8
|
||||||
2007
|
30.6 | % | 69.4 | % |
Revenues:
Net Investment Income
|
Net
investment income is affected by
trends in interest and dividend yields for the types of securities in which
the
Company’s funds are invested during individual reporting periods. The following
tables reflect the segmented and consolidated invested asset bases as of the
indicated dates, and the investment income earned and resulting yields on such
assets. Since the Company can exercise little control over market values, yields
are evaluated on the basis of investment income earned in relation to the
amortized cost of the underlying invested assets, though yields based on the
market values of such assets are also shown in the statistics
below.
Market
|
Invested
|
||||
Invested
Assets at Cost
|
Value
|
Assets
at
|
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Corporate
and Other
|
Total
|
Adjust-
ment
|
Market
Value
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
$ |
4,694.8
|
$ |
1,515.4
|
$ |
616.8
|
$ |
326.4
|
$ |
7,153.5
|
$ |
76.6
|
$ |
7,230.2
|
||||||||||||||
2006
|
5,524.8
|
1,571.6
|
611.1
|
246.6
|
7,954.3
|
101.8
|
8,056.1
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
5,009.4
|
1,542.3
|
599.1
|
459.5
|
7,610.4
|
78.5
|
7,689.0
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
$ |
5,839.7
|
$ |
1,695.3
|
$ |
613.7
|
$ |
259.7
|
$ |
8,408.6
|
$ |
157.6
|
$ |
8,566.2
|
Net
Investment Income
|
Yield
at
|
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Corporate
and Other
|
Total
|
Cost
|
Market
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Years
Ended
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
December
31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
$ |
183.4
|
$ |
67.7
|
$ |
25.5
|
$ |
14.0
|
$ |
290.8
|
4.64 | % | 4.42 | % | ||||||||||||||
2005
|
197.0
|
70.1
|
26.0
|
16.9
|
310.1
|
4.51
|
4.40
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
221.5
|
74.3
|
26.9
|
18.7
|
341.6
|
4.52
|
4.47
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
September
30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
161.8
|
55.3
|
19.9
|
13.9
|
250.9
|
4.53
|
4.48
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
192.8
|
57.9
|
20.2
|
9.2
|
280.4
|
4.57
|
4.50
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
September
30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
55.1
|
18.4
|
6.5
|
5.4
|
85.6
|
4.56
|
4.55
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
$ |
65.3
|
$ |
19.9
|
$ |
6.7
|
$ |
3.0
|
$ |
95.1
|
4.60 | % | 4.54 | % |
Revenues:
Net Realized Gains
|
The
Company's investment policies
have not been designed to maximize or emphasize the realization of investment
gains. Rather, these policies aim to assure a stable source of income from
interest and dividends, protection of capital, and provision of sufficient
liquidity to meet insurance underwriting and other obligations as they become
payable in the future. Dispositions of fixed maturity securities arise mostly
from scheduled maturities and early calls; for the first nine months of 2007
and
2006, 95.2% and 86.6%, respectively, of all such dispositions resulted from
these occurrences. Dispositions of equity securities at a realized gain or
loss
reflect such factors as ongoing assessments of issuers’ business prospects,
rotation among industry sectors, and tax planning considerations. Additionally,
the amount of net realized gains and losses registered in any one accounting
period are affected by the aforementioned assessments of securities’ values for
other than temporary impairment. As a result of the interaction of all these
factors and considerations, net realized investment gains or losses can vary
significantly from period-to-period, and in the Company’s view are not
indicative of any particular trend or result in the basics of its insurance
business.
23
The
following table reflects the
composition of net realized gains or losses for the periods shown. As previously
reported, relatively greater realized gains in equity securities in 2004 and
2005 resulted largely from sales of substantial portions of actively managed
equity holdings and reinvestment of proceeds in index-style investment
portfolios.
Realized
Gains on Disposition of:
|
Impairment
Losses on:
|
Fixed
maturity
securities
|
Equity
securities and
miscellaneous
investments
|
Total
|
Fixed
maturity securities
|
Equity
securitiesand
miscellaneous
investments
|
Total
|
Net
realized
gains
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Years
Ended
December
31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
$ |
4.6
|
$ |
48.5
|
$ |
53.2
|
$ |
-
|
$ | (5.2 | ) | $ | (5.2 | ) | $ |
47.9
|
||||||||||||
2005
|
4.5
|
69.6
|
74.1
|
(2.7 | ) | (6.5 | ) | (9.2 | ) |
64.9
|
||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
2.0
|
16.9
|
19.0
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
19.0
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended
September
30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
1.6
|
16.2
|
17.9
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
17.9
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
1.2
|
19.0
|
20.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
20.3
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended
September
30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
-
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2.2
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
3.9
|
$ |
3.9
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
-
|
$ |
3.9
|
Expenses:
Benefits and Claims
|
In
order
to achieve a necessary matching of premium and fee revenues and expenses, the
Company records the benefits, claims and related settlement costs that have
been
incurred during each accounting period. Total claim costs are affected by the
amount of paid claims and the adequacy of reserve estimates established for
current and prior years’ claim occurrences at each balance sheet
date.
The
following table shows a breakdown of gross and net of reinsurance claim and
loss
adjustment expense reserve estimates for major types of insurance coverages
as
of September 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006:
September
30, 2007
|
December
31, 2006
|
|||||||||||||||
Gross
|
Net
|
Gross
|
Net
|
|||||||||||||
Commercial
automobile (mostly
trucking)
|
$ |
1,031.4
|
$ |
839.3
|
$ |
977.7
|
$ |
810.9
|
||||||||
Workers'
compensation
|
2,150.8
|
1,249.3
|
2,093.2
|
1,175.7
|
||||||||||||
General
liability
|
1,140.4
|
569.6
|
1,123.8
|
537.3
|
||||||||||||
Other
coverages
|
635.9
|
450.4
|
610.0
|
400.7
|
||||||||||||
Unallocated
loss adjustment expense reserves
|
151.2
|
101.0
|
147.0
|
97.8
|
||||||||||||
Total
general insurance
reserves
|
5,109.8
|
3,209.9
|
4,951.8
|
3,022.6
|
||||||||||||
Mortgage
guaranty
|
464.4
|
463.8
|
248.6
|
247.9
|
||||||||||||
Title
|
274.1
|
274.1
|
278.4
|
278.4
|
||||||||||||
Life
and
health
|
32.1
|
24.4
|
28.4
|
21.6
|
||||||||||||
Unallocated
loss adjustment expense reserves –
other
coverages
|
27.8
|
27.8
|
27.2
|
27.2
|
||||||||||||
Total
claim and loss adjustment
expense reserves
|
$ |
5,908.4
|
$ |
4,000.2
|
$ |
5,534.7
|
$ |
3,598.0
|
||||||||
Asbestosis
and environmental claim reserves included
in
the above general insurance reserves:
|
||||||||||||||||
Amount
|
$ |
189.0
|
$ |
153.6
|
$ |
194.9
|
$ |
157.8
|
||||||||
%
of total general insurance
reserves
|
3.7 | % | 4.8 | % | 3.9 | % | 5.2 | % |
The
Company’s reserve for loss and loss
adjustment expenses represents the accumulation of estimates of ultimate losses,
including incurred but not reported losses and loss adjustment expenses. The
establishment of claim reserves by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries is a
reasonably complex and dynamic process influenced by a large variety of factors
as further discussed below. Consequently, reserves established are a reflection
of the opinions of a large number of persons, of the application and
interpretation of historical precedent and trends, of expectations as to future
developments, and of management’s judgment in interpreting all such factors. At
any point in time the Company is exposed to possibly higher or lower than
anticipated claim costs and the resulting changes in estimates are recorded
in
operations of the periods during which they are made. Increases to prior reserve
estimates are often referred to as unfavorable development whereas any changes
that decrease previous estimates of the Company’s ultimate liability are
referred to as favorable development.
24
Overview
of Loss Reserving Process
Most
of Old Republic’s consolidated
claim and related expense reserves stem from its general
insurance business. At September 30, 2007, such reserves accounted
for 86.5% and 80.2% of consolidated gross and net of reinsurance reserves,
respectively, while similar reserves at December 31, 2006 represented 89.5%
and
84.0% of the respective consolidated amounts.
The
Company’s reserve setting process
reflects the nature of its insurance business and the decentralized basis upon
which it is conducted. Old Republic’s general insurance operations
encompass a large variety of lines or classes of commercial insurance; it has
negligible exposure to personal lines such as homeowners or private passenger
automobile insurance that exhibit wide diversification of risks, significant
frequency of claim occurrences, and high degrees of statistical credibility.
Additionally, the Company’s insurance subsidiaries do not provide significant
amounts of insurance protection for premises; most of its property insurance
exposures relate to cargo, incidental property, and insureds’ inland marine
assets. Consequently, the wide variety of policies issued and commercial
insurance customers served require that loss reserves be analyzed and
established in the context of the unique or different attributes of each block
or class of business produced by the Company. For example, accident liability
claims emanating from insured trucking companies or from general aviation
customers become known relatively quickly, whereas claims of a general liability
nature arising from the building activities of a construction company may emerge
over extended periods of time. Similarly, claims filed pursuant to errors and
omissions or directors and officers’ (“E&O/D&O”) liability coverages are
usually not prone to immediate evaluation or quantification inasmuch as many
such claims may be litigated over several years and their ultimate costs may
be
affected by the vagaries of judged or jury verdicts. Approximately 86% of the
general insurance group’s claim reserves stem from liability insurance
coverages for commercial customers which typically require more extended periods
of investigation and at times protracted litigation before they are finally
settled. As a consequence of these and other factors, Old Republic does not
utilize a single, overarching loss reserving approach.
The
Company prepares periodic analyses
of its loss reserve estimates for its significant insurance coverages. It
establishes point estimates for most losses on an insurance coverage
line-by-line basis for individual subsidiaries, sub-classes, individual
accounts, blocks of business or other unique concentrations of insurance risks
such as directors and officers’ liability, that have similar attributes.
Actuarially or otherwise derived ranges of reserve levels are not utilized
as
such in setting these reserves. Instead the reported reserves encompass the
Company’s best point estimates at each reporting date and the overall reserve
level at any point in time therefore represents the compilation of a very large
number of reported reserve estimates and the results of a variety of formula
calculations largely driven by statistical analysis of historical data. Reserve
releases or additions are implicitly covered by the point estimates incorporated
in total reserves at each balance sheet date. The Company does not project
future variability or make an explicit provision for uncertainty when
determining its best estimate of loss reserves, although, as discussed below,
over the most recent ten-year period management’s estimates have developed
slightly favorably on an overall basis.
Overall
loss reserves consist of
liability estimates for claims that have been reported (“case”) to the Company’s
insurance subsidiaries and reserves for claims that have been incurred but
not
yet reported (“IBNR”) or whose ultimate costs may not become fully apparent
until a future time. Additionally, the Company establishes unallocated loss
adjustment expense reserves for loss settlement costs that are not directly
related to individual claims. Such reserves are based on prior years’ cost
experience and trends, and are intended to cover the unallocated costs of claim
departments’ administration of case and IBNR claims over time. Long-term,
disability-type workers’ compensation reserves are discounted to present value
based on interest rates that range from 3.5% to 4.0%.
A
large variety of statistical analyses
and formula calculations are utilized to provide for IBNR claim costs as well
as
additional costs that can arise from such factors as monetary and social
inflation, changes in claims administration processes, changes in reinsurance
ceded and recoverability levels, and expected trends in claim costs and related
ratios. Typically, such formulas take into account so-called link ratios that
represent prior years’ patterns of incurred or paid loss trends between
succeeding years, or past experience relative to progressions of the number
of
claims reported over time and ultimate average costs per claim.
Overall,
reserves pertaining to several
hundred large individual commercial insurance accounts that exhibit sufficient
statistical credibility, and at times may be subject to retrospective premium
rating plans or the utilization of varying levels or types of self-insured
retentions through captive insurers and similar risk management mechanisms
are
established on an account by account basis using case reserves and applicable
formula-driven methods. Large account reserves are usually set and analyzed
for
groups of coverages such as workers compensation, commercial auto and general
liability that are typically underwritten jointly for many customers. For
certain so-called long-tail categories of insurance such as retained or assumed
excess liability or excess workers’ compensation, officers and directors’
liability, and commercial umbrella liability relative to which claim development
patterns are particularly long, more volatile, and immature in their early
stages of development, the Company judgmentally establishes the most current
accident years’ loss reserves on the basis of expected loss ratios. Expected
loss ratios typically reflect the projected loss ratio from prior accident
years, adjusted for the effect of actual and anticipated rate changes, actual
and anticipated changes in coverage, reinsurance, or mix of business, and other
anticipated changes in external factors such as trends in loss costs or the
legal and claims environment. Expected loss ratios are generally used for the
two to three most recent accident years depending on the individual class or
category of business. As actual claims data emerges in succeeding interim and
annual periods, the original accident year loss ratio assumptions are validated
or otherwise adjusted sequentially through the application of statistical
projection techniques such as the Bornhuetter/Ferguson method which utilizes
data from the more mature experience of prior years to arrive at a likely
indication of more recent years’ loss trends and costs.
25
Mortgage
guaranty insurance loss reserves are based
on statistical calculations that take into account the number of reported
insured mortgage loan defaults as of each balance sheet date, as well as
experience-based estimates of IBNR. Further, such loss reserve estimates also
take into account a large number of variables including trends in claim
severity, potential salvage recoveries, expected cure rates for reported loan
defaults at various stages of default, and judgments relative to future
employment levels, housing market activity, and mortgage loan interest costs,
demand, and extensions.
Title
insurance and related escrow services loss
and loss adjustment expense reserves are established as point estimates to
cover
the projected settlement costs of known as well as IBNR losses, concurrently
with the recognition of premium and escrow service revenues. Reserves for known
claims are based on an assessment of the facts available to the Company during
the settlement process. The point estimates covering all claim reserves take
into account IBNR claims based on past experience and evaluations of such
variables as changing trends in the types of policies issued, changes in real
estate markets and interest rate environments, and changing levels of loan
refinancing, all of which can have a bearing on the emergence, number, and
ultimate costs of claims.
Incurred
Loss Experience
Management
is of the opinion that the
Company’s overall reserving practices have been consistently applied over many
years. For at least the past ten years, previously established aggregate
reserves have produced reasonable estimates of the cumulative ultimate net
costs
of claims incurred. However, there are no guarantees that such outcomes will
continue, and accordingly, no representation is made that ultimate net claim
and
related costs will not develop in future years to be greater or lower than
currently established reserve estimates. In management’s opinion, however, such
potential development is not likely to have a material effect on the Company’s
consolidated financial position, although it could have a material effect on
its
consolidated results of operations for any one annual or interim reporting
period. See further discussion in the Company’s 2006 Annual Report on Form 10-K,
under Item 1A - Risk Factors.
The
percentage of net claims,
benefits and related settlement expenses incurred as a percentage of premiums
and related fee revenues of the Company’s three major operating segments and for
its consolidated results were as follows:
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Consolidated
|
|||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
65.9 | % | 35.5 | % | 5.8 | % | 42.0 | % | ||||||||
2005
|
66.9
|
37.2
|
6.0
|
43.3
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
65.9
|
42.8
|
5.9
|
45.3
|
||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
65.8
|
39.0
|
6.0
|
44.6
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
66.5
|
96.4
|
6.4
|
55.6
|
||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
67.3
|
42.5
|
6.0
|
46.2
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
67.7 | % | 161.9 | % | 6.8 | % | 66.4 | % |
The
percentage of net claims,
benefits and related settlement expenses measured against premiums earned by
major general insurance types of coverage were as follows:
General
Insurance Claims Ratios by Type of
Coverage
|
Commercial
Automobile
(mostly
trucking)
|
Workers’
Compensation
|
Financial
Indemnity
|
Inland
Marine
and
Property
|
General
Liability
|
Other
|
|||||||||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
66.5 | % | 72.4 | % | 47.6 | % | 56.2 | % | 108.6 | % | 59.3 | % | ||||||||||||
2005
|
67.2
|
78.9
|
48.9
|
52.2
|
97.4
|
58.5
|
||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
75.3
|
74.6
|
41.5
|
55.0
|
57.5
|
54.8
|
||||||||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
76.1
|
72.9
|
40.9
|
54.9
|
56.1
|
54.7
|
||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
73.6
|
71.0
|
62.4
|
55.3
|
57.2
|
54.1
|
||||||||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
79.8
|
72.3
|
33.3
|
59.3
|
50.8
|
59.3
|
||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
71.3 | % | 72.1 | % | 70.6 | % | 58.9 | % | 59.7 | % | 52.1 | % |
The
general
insurance portion
of the claims ratio reflects reasonably consistent trends for all reporting
periods. To a large extent this major cost factor reflects pricing and risk
selection improvements that have been applied since 2001, together with elements
of reduced loss severity and frequency. During the three most recent calendar
years, the general insurance group experienced favorable development of
prior year loss reserves primarily stemming from the commercial automobile
and
the E&O/D&O (financial indemnity) lines of business; this was partially
offset by unfavorable development in excess workers compensation coverages
and
for ongoing development of asbestos and environmental (“A&E”) exposures
(general liability). Unfavorable developments attributable to A&E claim
reserves are due to periodic re-evaluations of such reserves as well as
reclassifications of other coverages’ reserves, typically workers compensation,
deemed to be assignable to A&E types of losses.
26
Except
for a small portion that
emanates from ongoing primary insurance operations, a large majority of the
A&E claim reserves posted by Old Republic stem mainly from its
participations in assumed reinsurance treaties and insurance pools which were
discontinued fifteen or more years ago and have since been in run-off status.
With respect to the primary portion of gross A&E reserves, Old Republic
administers the related claims through its claims personnel as well as outside
attorneys, and posted reserves reflect its best estimates of ultimate claim
costs. Claims administration for the assumed portion of the Company’s A&E
exposures is handled by the claims departments of unrelated primary or ceding
reinsurance companies. While the Company performs periodic reviews of certain
claim files managed by third parties, the overall A&E reserves it
establishes respond to the paid claim and case reserve activity reported to
the
Company as well as available industry statistical data such as so-called
survival ratios. Such ratios represent the number of years’ average paid losses
for the three or five most recent calendar years that are encompassed by an
insurer’s A&E reserve level at any point in time. According to this
simplistic appraisal of an insurer’s A&E loss reserve level, Old Republic’s
average five year survival ratios stood at 7.5 years (gross) and 10.3 years
(net
of reinsurance) as of September 30, 2007 and 7.6 years (gross) and 10.9 years
(net of reinsurance) as of December 31, 2006. Fluctuations in this ratio between
years can be caused by the inconsistent pay out patterns associated with these
types of claims. Incurred net losses for A&E claims have averaged 3.4% of
general insurance group net incurred losses for the five years ended
December 31, 2006.
The
mortgage
guaranty claims
ratios have continued to rise in recent years, principally reflecting higher
paid losses, as well as expectations of greater claim frequency and severity.
The most recent quarterly and year-to-date claim ratios comparisons reflect
a
significant increase due primarily to increasing loss severity on reported
delinquencies as well as to higher expected claim frequencies and the resulting
impact on claims reserves at September 30, 2007. Claim severity has trended
upward primarily due to loans with larger unpaid principal balances and
corresponding risk moving into default along with a lower level of
mitigation potential due to the slowing of housing appreciation levels.
Expectations of greater claim frequency are impacted by several factors,
including the number of loans entering into default, the outlook for the housing
market, tightening lending standards which effect borrowers’ ability to
refinance troubled loans, the aging of the bulk business, and the state of
the
economy overall, especially employment levels.
While
there is no consensus in the
marketplace as to the precise definition of “sub-prime”, Old Republic views
loans with FICO scores less than 620, loans underwritten with reduced levels
of
loan documentation and loans with loan to value ratios in excess of 95% as
having a higher risk of default. Risk in force concentrations by these
attributes are disclosed on pages 21 to 22 for both traditional primary and
bulk
business channels. The traditional primary business is less exposed to loans
exhibiting higher risk attributes. Conversely, while the bulk business includes
a higher concentration of higher risk loans, particularly loans with low FICO
scores, it represents a much smaller percentage of the total risk in force.
Typically premiums received for these products are higher than more traditional
products to compensate for the additional risk. As anticipated, defaults
attributable to higher risk loans continue to increase as the loans
age.
Average
mortgage guaranty paid claims, and certain delinquency ratio data as of
the end of the periods shown are listed below:
Average
Paid
Claim
Amount (1)
|
Delinquency
Ratio
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
(2)
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
(2)
|
|||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
$ |
23,920
|
$ |
19,885
|
4.11 | % | 4.59 | % | ||||||||
2005
|
24,255
|
20,639
|
4.67
|
3.67
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
25,989
|
21,846
|
4.41
|
3.29
|
||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
25,494
|
19,986
|
4.28
|
3.48
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
29,877
|
28,658
|
4.75 | % | 4.84 | % | ||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
25,376
|
21,709
|
||||||||||||||
2007
|
$ |
31,247
|
$ |
30,794
|
(1)
Amounts are in whole dollars.
(2)
Due
to the relative immaturity of the bulk business, the above trends may prove
to
be highly volatile.
27
Traditional
Primary Delinquency Ratios for Top Ten States
(3):
|
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
PA
|
NJ
|
MN
|
NC
|
CA
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
3.2 | % | 5.0 | % | 5.6 | % | 3.8 | % | 7.6 | % | 4.4 | % | 4.2 | % | 3.5 | % | 4.9 | % | 2.1 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
3.1
|
5.7
|
5.9
|
4.2
|
8.3
|
4.7
|
4.1
|
4.0
|
4.9
|
1.8
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
2.7
|
4.5
|
6.1
|
4.5
|
7.8
|
4.8
|
4.1
|
5.4
|
4.6
|
2.9
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
2.5
|
4.5
|
6.0
|
4.4
|
7.7
|
4.5
|
4.0
|
5.1
|
4.7
|
2.3
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
5.3 | % | 4.1 | % | 6.5 | % | 4.8 | % | 7.6 | % | 4.8 | % | 4.5 | % | 6.4 | % | 4.3 | % | 4.9 | % |
Bulk
Delinquency Ratios for Top Ten States
(3):
|
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
CO
|
NJ
|
CA
|
AZ
|
NY
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
2.5 | % | 6.1 | % | 7.0 | % | 5.2 | % | 13.3 | % | 7.1 | % | 3.3 | % | 1.3 | % | 3.6 | % | 4.9 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
1.9
|
5.5
|
5.8
|
3.0
|
8.4
|
3.0
|
3.7
|
.9
|
.9
|
4.3
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
1.6
|
4.0
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
9.3
|
3.3
|
3.5
|
1.6
|
1.0
|
4.4
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
1.5
|
4.6
|
5.1
|
4.5
|
10.4
|
2.8
|
4.0
|
1.2
|
.8
|
4.4
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
4.5 | % | 4.5 | % | 5.8 | % | 6.1 | % | 8.7 | % | 4.4 | % | 4.9 | % | 4.3 | % | 2.8 | % | 5.2 | % |
Total
Delinquency Ratios for Top Ten States (includes “other” business)
(3):
|
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
PA
|
NJ
|
CA
|
NC
|
MI
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2004
|
2.7 | % | 4.8 | % | 5.1 | % | 2.5 | % | 7.2 | % | 4.1 | % | 3.7 | % | 1.1 | % | 3.5 | % | 5.3 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
2.4
|
5.3
|
5.3
|
2.8
|
7.5
|
4.3
|
3.7
|
.9
|
3.8
|
6.4
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
2.0
|
4.1
|
5.2
|
3.1
|
7.3
|
4.3
|
3.6
|
1.4
|
3.3
|
7.2
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
1.9
|
4.2
|
5.2
|
3.0
|
7.3
|
4.2
|
3.7
|
1.1
|
3.4
|
6.7
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
4.5 | % | 4.0 | % | 5.9 | % | 4.2 | % | 7.4 | % | 4.6 | % | 4.5 | % | 3.5 | % | 3.5 | % | 8.3 | % |
(3)
|
As
determined by risk in force as of September 30, 2007, these 10 states
represent approximately 49%, 59%, and 50%, of traditional primary,
bulk, and total risk in force,
respectively.
|
The
title insurance loss ratios remain in the low single digits due to a
continuation of favorable trends in claims frequency and severity for business
underwritten since 1992 in particular.
Reinsurance
Programs
To
maintain premium production within
its capacity and limit maximum losses and risks for which it might become liable
under its policies, Old Republic may cede a portion or all of its premiums
and
liabilities on certain classes of insurance, individual policies, or blocks
of
business to other insurers and reinsurers. Further discussion of the Company’s
reinsurance programs can be found in Part 1 of the Company’s 2006 Annual Report
on Form 10-K on pages 13 and 14.
Expenses:
Underwriting, Acquisition and Other
Expenses
|
The
following table sets forth the
expense ratios registered by each major business segment and in consolidation
for the periods shown:
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Consolidated
|
|||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
24.8 | % | 25.6 | % | 90.5 | % | 47.3 | % | ||||||||
2005
|
24.6
|
22.4
|
88.2
|
45.2
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
24.4
|
22.5
|
93.6
|
44.7
|
||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
24.5
|
22.6
|
92.4
|
44.7
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
24.5
|
18.4
|
96.3
|
41.7
|
||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
24.3
|
21.7
|
92.2
|
43.9
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
23.0 | % | 15.0 | % | 97.5 | % | 40.2 | % |
Expense
ratios for the Company as a
whole have remained basically stable for the periods reported upon. Variations
in these consolidated ratios reflect a continually changing mix of
coverages sold and attendant costs of producing business in the Company’s three
business segments. To a significant degree, expense ratios for both the general
and title insurance segments are mostly reflective of variable costs, such
as
commissions or similar charges, that rise or decline along with corresponding
changes in premium and fee income. Further, general operating expenses can
contract or expand in differing proportions due to varying levels of operating
efficiencies and expense management opportunities in the face of changing market
conditions.
28
Expenses:
Total
|
The
composite ratios of the above net
claims, benefits and underwriting expenses that reflect the sum total of all
the
factors discussed herein were as follows:
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Consolidated
|
|||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||
2004
|
90.7 | % | 61.1 | % | 96.3 | % | 89.3 | % | ||||||||
2005
|
91.5
|
59.6
|
94.2
|
88.5
|
||||||||||||
2006
|
90.3
|
65.3
|
99.5
|
90.0
|
||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
90.3
|
61.6
|
98.4
|
89.3
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
91.0
|
114.8
|
102.7
|
97.3
|
||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||
2006
|
91.6
|
64.2
|
98.2
|
90.1
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
90.7 | % | 176.9 | % | 104.3 | % | 106.6 | % |
Expenses:
Income Taxes
|
The
effective consolidated income tax
rates were 16.6% and 29.6% in the third quarter and first nine months of 2007,
respectively, and 31.3% and 31.7% for similar periods in 2006, respectively.
The
rates reflect primarily the varying proportions of pretax operating income
derived from partially tax-sheltered investment income (principally state and
municipal tax-exempt interest) on the one hand, and the combination of fully
taxable investment income, realized investment gains or losses, and underwriting
and service income, on the other hand.
OTHER
INFORMATION
|
Reference
is here made to “Information
About Segments of Business” appearing elsewhere herein.
Historical
data pertaining to the
operating results, liquidity, and other performance indicators applicable to
an
insurance enterprise such as Old Republic are not necessarily indicative of
results to be achieved in succeeding years. In addition to the factors cited
below, the long-term nature of the insurance business, seasonal and annual
patterns in premium production and incidence of claims, changes in yields
obtained on invested assets, changes in government policies and free markets
affecting inflation rates and general economic conditions, and changes in legal
precedents or the application of law affecting the settlement of disputed and
other claims can have a bearing on period-to-period comparisons and future
operating results.
Some
of the statements made in this
report and other Company-published reports, as well as oral statements or
commentaries made by the Company’s management in conference calls following
earnings releases, can constitute “forward-looking statements” within the
meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Of necessity,
any such forward-looking statements, commentaries, or inferences involve
assumptions, uncertainties, and risks that may affect the Company’s future
performance. With regard to Old Republic’s General Insurance segment, its
results can be affected, in particular, by the level of market competition,
which is typically a function of available capital and expected returns on
such
capital among competitors, the levels of interest and inflation rates, and
periodic changes in claim frequency and severity patterns caused by natural
disasters, weather conditions, accidents, illnesses, work-related injuries,
and
unanticipated external events. Mortgage Guaranty and Title Insurance results
can
be affected by similar factors and, most particularly, by changes in national
and regional housing demand and values, the availability and cost of mortgage
loans, employment trends, and default rates on mortgage loans. Mortgage Guaranty
results, in particular, may also be affected by various risk-sharing
arrangements with business producers, as well as the risk management and pricing
policies of government sponsored enterprises. Life and health insurance earnings
can be affected by the levels of employment and consumer spending, variations
in
mortality and health trends, and changes in policy lapsation rates. At the
parent holding company level, operating earnings or losses are generally
reflective of the amount of debt outstanding and its cost, interest income
on
temporary holdings of short-term investments, and period-to-period variations
in
the costs of administering the Company’s widespread operations.
Any
forward-looking statements or
commentaries speak only as of their dates. Old Republic undertakes no obligation
to publicly update or revise any and all such comments, whether as a result
of
new information, future events, or otherwise, and accordingly they may not
be
unduly relied upon.
29
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
Item
3 - Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure About Market
Risk
Market
risk represents the potential for loss due to adverse changes in the fair value
of financial instruments as a result of changes in interest rates, equity
prices, foreign exchange rates and commodity prices. Old Republic’s primary
market risks consist of interest rate risk associated with investments in fixed
maturities and equity price risk associated with investments in equity
securities. The Company has no material foreign exchange or commodity
risk.
Old
Republic’s market risk exposures at September 30, 2007, have not materially
changed from those identified in the Company’s 2006 Annual Report on Form
10-K.
Item
4 - Controls and Procedures
Evaluation
of Disclosure Controls and Procedures
The
Company’s
principal executive officer and its principal financial officer have evaluated
the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures as of the end of the period
covered by this quarterly report. Based upon their evaluation, the principal
executive officer and principal financial officer have concluded that the
Company’s disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and
15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934) are effective for the
above
referenced evaluation period.
Changes
in Internal Control
During
the three month period ended September 30, 2007, there were no changes in
internal control over financial reporting that have materially affected, or
are
reasonably likely to materially affect, the Company’s internal control over
financial reporting.
Management's
Report on Internal control Over Financial Reporting
The
Company’s internal control over financial reporting is a process designed to
provide reasonable assurance regarding the reliability of financial reporting
and the preparation of financial statements for external purposes in accordance
with generally accepted accounting principles. The Company’s internal control
over financial reporting includes those policies and procedures that (i) pertain
to the maintenance of records that, in reasonable detail, accurately and fairly
reflect the transactions and dispositions of the assets of the Company; (ii)
provide reasonable assurance that transactions are recorded as necessary to
permit preparation of financial statements in accordance with generally accepted
accounting principles, and that receipts and expenditures of the Company are
being made only in accordance with authorizations of management and directors
of
the Company; and (iii) provide reasonable assurance regarding prevention or
timely detection of unauthorized acquisition, use or disposition of the
Company’s assets that could have a material effect on the financial
statements.
Because
of its inherent limitations, internal control over financial reporting may
not
prevent or detect misstatements. Also, projections of any evaluation of
effectiveness to future periods are subject to the risk that controls may become
inadequate because of changes in conditions, or that the degree of compliance
with the policies or procedures may deteriorate.
30
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
FORM
10-Q
PART
II – OTHER INFORMATION
Item
1A – Risk Factors
There
have been no material changes with respect to the risk factors disclosed in
the
Company’s 2006 Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Item
6
– Exhibits
(a)
Exhibits
|
31.1
|
Certification
by Aldo C. Zucaro, Chief Executive Officer, pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)
and
15d-14(a), as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act of
2002.
|
|
31.2
|
Certification
by Karl W. Mueller, Chief Financial Officer, pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)
and 15d-14(a), as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act of 2002.
|
|
32.1
|
Certification
by Aldo C. Zucaro, Chief Executive Officer, pursuant to Section 1350,
Chapter 63 of Title 18, United States Code, as adopted pursuant to
Section
906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
|
32.2
|
Certification
by Karl W. Mueller, Chief Financial Officer, pursuant to Section
1350,
Chapter 63 of Title 18, United States Code, as adopted pursuant to
Section
906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
31
|
SIGNATURE
|
Pursuant
to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant
has
duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto
duly authorized.
Old
Republic International Corporation
|
||||
(Registrant)
|
||||
Date:
|
November
2, 2007
|
|||
/s/
Karl W. Mueller
|
||||
Karl
W. Mueller
Senior
Vice President and
Chief
Financial Officer
|
32
EXHIBIT
INDEX
Exhibit
|
||
No.
|
Description
|
|
31.1
|
Certification
by Aldo C. Zucaro, Chief Executive Officer, pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)
and
15d-14(a), as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act of
2002.
|
|
31.2
|
Certification
by Karl W. Mueller, Chief Financial Officer, pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)
and 15d-14(a), as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act of 2002.
|
|
32.1
|
Certification
by Aldo C. Zucaro, Chief Executive Officer, pursuant to Section 1350,
Chapter 63 of Title 18, United States Code, as adopted pursuant to
Section
906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
|
|
32.2
|
Certification
by Karl W. Mueller, Chief Financial Officer, pursuant to Section
1350,
Chapter 63 of Title 18, United States Code, as adopted pursuant to
Section
906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
33