OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORP - Quarter Report: 2008 September (Form 10-Q)
UNITED
STATES
SECURITIES
AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington,
D.C. 20549
|
||
FORM
10-Q
|
||
[x] Quarterly
report pursuant to section 13 or 15(d) of the Security Exchange Act of
1934
for the quarterly period ended:
September 30,
2008
or
|
||
[ ] Transition
report pursuant to section 13 or 15(d) of the Security Exchange Act of
1934
|
||
Commission
File Number:
|
001-10607
|
|
OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL
CORPORATION
|
||
(Exact
name of registrant as specified in its
charter)
|
Delaware
|
No.
36-2678171
|
|
(State
or other jurisdiction of
incorporation
or organization)
|
(IRS
Employer Identification No.)
|
307
North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, Illinois
|
60601
|
|
(Address
of principal executive office)
|
(Zip
Code)
|
Registrant's
telephone number, including area code: 312-346-8100
Indicate
by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be
filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the
preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required
to file such reports) and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for
the past 90 days. Yes:x No:¨
Indicate
by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an
accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, or a smaller reporting company. See
definitions of “accelerated filer”, “large accelerated filer”, and “smaller
reporting company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. (Check one).
Large
accelerated filer x
|
Accelerated
filer ¨
|
Non-accelerated
filer ¨
|
Smaller
reporting company ¨
|
Indicate
by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Exchange
Act Rule 12b-2). Yes:¨ No:x
Class
|
Shares
Outstanding
September
30, 2008
|
|
Common
Stock / $1 par value
|
230,753,860
|
There are
36 pages in this report
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
Report
on Form 10-Q / September 30, 2008
INDEX
|
|
PAGE
NO.
|
|
PART
I FINANCIAL INFORMATION:
|
|
CONSOLIDATED
BALANCE SHEETS
|
3
|
CONSOLIDATED
STATEMENTS OF INCOME
|
4
|
CONSOLIDATED
STATEMENTS OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
|
5
|
CONSOLIDATED
STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
|
6
|
NOTES
TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
|
7 –
11
|
MANAGEMENT
ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL POSITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
|
12
– 32
|
QUANTITATIVE
AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURE ABOUT MARKET RISK
|
33
|
CONTROLS
AND PROCEDURES
|
33
|
PART
II OTHER INFORMATION:
|
|
ITEM
1 – LEGAL PROCEEDINGS
|
34
|
ITEM
1A – RISK FACTORS
|
34
|
ITEM
6 – EXHIBITS
|
34
|
SIGNATURE
|
35
|
EXHIBIT
INDEX
|
36
|
2
Old
Republic International Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated
Balance Sheets
($
in Millions, Except Share Data)
|
||||||||
(Unaudited)
September
30,
2008
|
December
31,
2007
|
|||||||
Assets
|
||||||||
Investments:
|
||||||||
Available
for sale:
|
||||||||
Fixed
maturity securities (at fair value) (adjusted cost: $7,381.1 and
$7,312.2)
|
$
|
7,285.6
|
$
|
7,383.6
|
||||
Equity
securities (at fair value) (adjusted cost: $404.4 and
$807.3)
|
484.1
|
842.1
|
||||||
Short-term
investments (at fair value which approximates cost)
|
729.1
|
462.6
|
||||||
Miscellaneous
investments
|
32.4
|
64.7
|
||||||
Total
|
8,531.3
|
8,753.1
|
||||||
Other
investments
|
8.2
|
8.1
|
||||||
Total
investments
|
8,539.6
|
8,761.2
|
||||||
Other
Assets:
|
||||||||
Cash
|
86.5
|
54.0
|
||||||
Securities
and indebtedness of related parties
|
29.1
|
15.3
|
||||||
Accrued
investment income
|
107.6
|
108.7
|
||||||
Accounts
and notes receivable
|
838.8
|
880.3
|
||||||
Federal
income tax recoverable: Current
|
9.5
|
6.2
|
||||||
Prepaid
federal income taxes
|
501.3
|
536.5
|
||||||
Reinsurance
balances and funds held
|
70.9
|
69.9
|
||||||
Reinsurance
recoverable:
|
Paid
losses
|
61.8
|
65.8
|
|||||
Policy
and claim reserves
|
2,372.5
|
2,193.4
|
||||||
Deferred
policy acquisition costs
|
234.3
|
246.5
|
||||||
Sundry
assets
|
351.4
|
352.3
|
||||||
4,664.2
|
4,529.3
|
|||||||
Total
Assets
|
$
|
13,203.8
|
$
|
13,290.6
|
||||
Liabilities,
Preferred Stock, and Common Shareholders’ Equity
|
||||||||
Liabilities:
|
||||||||
Losses,
claims, and settlement expenses
|
$
|
7,025.6
|
$
|
6,231.1
|
||||
Unearned
premiums
|
1,176.3
|
1,182.2
|
||||||
Other
policyholders' benefits and funds
|
183.7
|
190.2
|
||||||
Total
policy liabilities and accruals
|
8,385.6
|
7,603.5
|
||||||
Commissions,
expenses, fees, and taxes
|
213.7
|
225.9
|
||||||
Reinsurance
balances and funds
|
293.5
|
288.7
|
||||||
Federal
income tax payable: Deferred
|
118.7
|
417.7
|
||||||
Debt
|
124.1
|
64.1
|
||||||
Sundry
liabilities
|
153.6
|
148.8
|
||||||
Commitments
and contingent liabilities
|
||||||||
Total
Liabilities
|
9,289.5
|
8,749.0
|
||||||
Preferred
Stock:
|
||||||||
Convertible
preferred stock (1)
|
-
|
-
|
||||||
Common
Shareholders’ Equity:
|
||||||||
Common
stock (1)
|
230.7
|
232.0
|
||||||
Additional
paid-in capital
|
329.7
|
344.4
|
||||||
Retained
earnings
|
3,353.0
|
3,900.1
|
||||||
Accumulated
other comprehensive income
|
.7
|
93.3
|
||||||
Treasury
stock (at cost)(1)
|
-
|
(28.3)
|
||||||
Total
Common Shareholders' Equity
|
3,914.3
|
4,541.6
|
||||||
Total
Liabilities, Preferred Stock and Common Shareholders’
Equity
|
$
|
13,203.8
|
$
|
13,290.6
|
||||
(1)
|
At
September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2007, there were 75,000,000 shares of
$0.01 par value preferred stock authorized, of which no shares were
outstanding. As of the same dates, there were 500,000,000 shares of common
stock, $1.00 par value, authorized, of which 230,753,860 at September 30,
2008 and 232,038,331
at December 31, 2007 were issued. At September 30, 2008 and
December 31, 2007, there were 100,000,000 shares of Class B Common Stock,
$1.00 par value, authorized, of which no shares were issued. Common shares
classified as treasury stock were 0 and 1,566,100 as of September 30, 2008
and December 31, 2007,
respectively.
|
See
accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
|
3
Old
Republic International Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated
Statements of Income (Unaudited)
($
in Millions, Except Share Data)
|
|||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended
September
30,
|
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
||||||||||||
2008
|
2007
|
2008
|
2007
|
||||||||||
Revenues:
|
|||||||||||||
Net
premiums earned
|
$
|
784.7
|
$
|
870.1
|
$
|
2,372.5
|
$
|
2,537.4
|
|||||
Title,
escrow, and other fees
|
50.4
|
50.9
|
144.9
|
166.7
|
|||||||||
Total
premiums and fees
|
835.2
|
921.1
|
2,517.5
|
2,704.2
|
|||||||||
Net
investment income
|
93.8
|
95.1
|
282.3
|
280.4
|
|||||||||
Other
income
|
7.2
|
9.6
|
24.6
|
31.1
|
|||||||||
Total
operating revenues
|
936.3
|
1,025.9
|
2,824.5
|
3,015.7
|
|||||||||
Realized
investment gains (losses):
|
|||||||||||||
From
sales
|
18.3
|
3.9
|
26.0
|
20.3
|
|||||||||
From
impairments
|
(11.5)
|
-
|
(448.9)
|
-
|
|||||||||
Total
realized investment gains (losses)
|
6.7
|
3.9
|
(422.8)
|
20.3
|
|||||||||
Total
revenues
|
943.1
|
1,029.8
|
2,401.6
|
3,036.0
|
|||||||||
Benefits,
Claims and Expenses:
|
|||||||||||||
Benefits,
claims, and settlement expenses
|
679.1
|
609.9
|
2,005.2
|
1,496.3
|
|||||||||
Dividends
to policyholders
|
4.0
|
1.9
|
11.9
|
6.9
|
|||||||||
Underwriting,
acquisition, and other expenses
|
333.2
|
381.8
|
1,014.1
|
1,168.8
|
|||||||||
Interest
and other charges
|
-
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
6.0
|
|||||||||
Total
expenses
|
1,016.5
|
994.8
|
3,032.8
|
2,678.1
|
|||||||||
Income
(loss) before income taxes (credits)
|
(73.4)
|
35.0
|
(631.1)
|
357.9
|
|||||||||
Income
Taxes (Credits):
|
|||||||||||||
Current
|
13.5
|
44.8
|
51.8
|
133.0
|
|||||||||
Deferred
|
(38.9)
|
(39.0)
|
(251.2)
|
(27.2)
|
|||||||||
Total
|
(25.3)
|
5.8
|
(199.3)
|
105.7
|
|||||||||
Net
Income (Loss)
|
$
|
(48.0)
|
$
|
29.2
|
$
|
(431.8)
|
$
|
252.1
|
|||||
Net
Income (Loss) Per Share:
|
|||||||||||||
Basic:
|
$
|
(.21)
|
$
|
.13
|
$
|
(1.87)
|
$
|
1.09
|
|||||
Diluted:
|
$
|
(.21)
|
$
|
.12
|
$
|
(1.87)
|
$
|
1.08
|
|||||
Average
shares outstanding:
|
Basic
|
230,735,600
|
231,014,468
|
230,716,219
|
231,627,204
|
||||||||
Diluted
|
230,735,600
|
232,298,642
|
230,716,219
|
233,448,109
|
|||||||||
Dividends
Per Common Share:
|
|||||||||||||
Cash
|
$
|
.17
|
$
|
.16
|
$
|
.50
|
$
|
.47
|
See
accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
|
4
Old
Republic International Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated
Statements of Comprehensive Income (Unaudited)
($
in Millions)
|
||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended
September
30,
|
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
|||||||||||
2008
|
2007
|
2008
|
2007
|
|||||||||
Net
income (loss) as reported
|
$
|
(48.0)
|
$
|
29.2
|
$
|
(431.8)
|
$
|
252.1
|
||||
Other
comprehensive income (loss):
|
||||||||||||
Unrealized
gains (losses) on securities:
|
||||||||||||
Unrealized
gains (losses) arising during period
|
(80.7)
|
106.5
|
(554.0)
|
75.9
|
||||||||
Less:
elimination of pretax realized gains (losses)
|
||||||||||||
included
in income (loss) as reported
|
6.7
|
3.9
|
(422.8)
|
20.3
|
||||||||
Pretax
unrealized gains (losses) on securities
|
||||||||||||
carried
at market value
|
(87.5)
|
102.5
|
(131.2)
|
55.6
|
||||||||
Deferred
income taxes (credits)
|
(30.6)
|
35.8
|
(45.9)
|
19.4
|
||||||||
Net
unrealized gains (losses) on securities
|
(56.8)
|
66.6
|
(85.2)
|
36.2
|
||||||||
Other
adjustments
|
(2.7)
|
7.9
|
(7.2)
|
20.2
|
||||||||
Net
adjustments
|
(59.6)
|
74.5
|
(92.5)
|
56.4
|
||||||||
Comprehensive
income (loss)
|
$
|
(107.6)
|
$
|
103.8
|
$
|
(524.3)
|
$
|
308.6
|
See
accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
|
5
Old
Republic International Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated
Statements of Cash Flows (Unaudited)
($
in Millions)
|
|||||||
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
|||||||
2008
|
2007
|
||||||
Cash
flows from operating activities:
|
|||||||
Net
income (loss)
|
$
|
(431.8)
|
$
|
252.1
|
|||
Adjustments
to reconcile net income to
|
|||||||
net
cash provided by operating activities:
|
|||||||
Deferred
policy acquisition costs
|
11.3
|
13.7
|
|||||
Premiums
and other receivables
|
41.5
|
26.4
|
|||||
Unpaid
claims and related items
|
612.1
|
400.7
|
|||||
Other
policyholders’ benefits and funds
|
(8.3)
|
20.7
|
|||||
Income
taxes
|
(254.6)
|
(1.9)
|
|||||
Prepaid
federal income taxes
|
35.2
|
(68.1)
|
|||||
Reinsurance
balances and funds
|
7.9
|
(8.9)
|
|||||
Realized
investment (gains) losses
|
422.8
|
(20.3)
|
|||||
Accounts
payable, accrued expenses and other
|
31.3
|
28.3
|
|||||
Total
|
467.6
|
642.7
|
|||||
|
|||||||
Cash
flows from investing activities:
|
|
||||||
Fixed
maturity securities:
|
|
||||||
Maturities
and early calls
|
631.0
|
537.6
|
|||||
Sales
|
72.4
|
27.0
|
|||||
Sales
of:
|
|
||||||
Equity
securities
|
79.2
|
73.3
|
|||||
Other
- net
|
42.7
|
13.0
|
|||||
Purchases
of:
|
|||||||
Fixed
maturity securities
|
(814.7)
|
(986.7)
|
|||||
Equity
securities
|
(96.9)
|
(123.8)
|
|||||
Other
– net
|
(26.4)
|
(19.9)
|
|||||
Purchase
of a business
|
(4.3)
|
(4.3)
|
|||||
Net
decrease (increase) in short-term investments
|
(267.0)
|
30.3
|
|||||
Other-net
|
(.4)
|
(.8)
|
|||||
Total
|
(384.5)
|
(454.2)
|
|||||
|
|||||||
Cash
flows from financing activities:
|
|
||||||
Issuance
of debentures and notes
|
|
93.0
|
81.3
|
||||
Issuance
of common shares
|
3.0
|
14.0
|
|||||
Redemption
of debentures and notes
|
(33.1)
|
(131.3)
|
|||||
Dividends
on common shares
|
(115.2)
|
(108.5)
|
|||||
Purchase
of treasury shares
|
-
|
(28.3)
|
|||||
Other-net
|
1.9
|
3.3
|
|||||
Total
|
(50.5)
|
(169.5)
|
|||||
Increase
(decrease) in cash:
|
32.5
|
18.9
|
|||||
Cash,
beginning of period
|
54.0
|
71.6
|
|||||
Cash,
end of period
|
$
|
86.5
|
$
|
90.5
|
|||
|
|||||||
Supplemental
cash flow information:
|
|
||||||
Cash
paid during the period for:
|
Interest
|
$
|
2.0
|
$
|
5.6
|
||
Income
taxes
|
$
|
54.9
|
$
|
107.2
|
See
accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
|
6
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
NOTES
TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (Unaudited)
($ in
Millions, Except Share Data)
1.
|
Accounting Policies and Basis
of Presentation:
|
The
accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared in conformity
with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) as described in the
Company’s latest annual report to shareholders or otherwise disclosed herein.
The financial accounting and reporting process relies on estimates and on the
exercise of judgment, but in the opinion of management all adjustments,
consisting only of normal recurring accruals, necessary for a fair statement of
the results were recorded for the interim periods. Amounts shown in the
consolidated financial statements and applicable notes are stated (except as
otherwise indicated and as to share data) in millions, which amounts may not add
to totals shown due to truncation. Necessary reclassifications are made in prior
periods’ financial statements whenever appropriate to conform to the most
current presentation.
The
Financial Accounting Standards Board’s (“FASB”) Interpretation No. 48, Accounting for Uncertainty in Income
Taxes (“FIN 48”) became effective for the Company in the first quarter of
2007. FIN 48 provides recognition criteria and a related measurement model for
uncertain tax positions taken or expected to be taken in income tax returns. FIN
48 requires that a position taken or expected to be taken in a tax return be
recognized in the financial statements when it is more likely than not that the
position would be sustained upon examination by tax authorities. The Company’s
unrecognized tax benefits, including interest and penalty accruals, are not
considered material to the consolidated financial statements and have not
changed significantly upon the adoption of FIN 48. There are no tax
uncertainties that are expected to result in significant increases or decreases
to unrecognized tax benefits within the next twelve month period. The Company
views its income tax exposures as consisting of timing differences whereby the
ultimate deductibility of a taxable amount is highly certain but the timing of
its deductibility is uncertain. Such differences relate principally to the
timing of deductions for loss and premium reserves. As in prior examinations,
the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) could assert that claim reserve deductions
were overstated thereby reducing the Company’s statutory taxable income in any
particular year. The Company believes that it establishes its reserves fairly
and consistently at each balance sheet date, and that it would succeed in
defending its tax position in these regards. Because of the impact of deferred
tax accounting under GAAP, other than possible interest and penalties which are
classified as income tax expense, the possible accelerated payment of tax to the
IRS would not affect the annual effective tax rate. The Company’s consolidated
Federal income tax returns through year-end 2004 are closed and no significant
adjustments have resulted. On October 22, 2008 the IRS commenced their
examination of the Company’s 2006 consolidated income tax return.
The
Company’s adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 157, Fair Value Measurements (“FAS
157”), is discussed in Note 3 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
The
adoption of FIN 48 and FAS 157 result in additional financial statement
disclosures for GAAP reporting purposes and has no effect on the conduct of the
Company’s business, its financial condition and results of
operations.
7
2.
|
Common Share
Data:
|
Earnings
Per Share - The following table provides a reconciliation of the income and
number of shares used in basic and diluted earnings per share
calculations.
Quarters
Ended
September
30,
|
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
|||||||||||||
2008
|
2007
|
2008
|
2007
|
|||||||||||
Numerator:
|
||||||||||||||
Net
Income
(loss)
|
$
|
(48.0)
|
$
|
29.2
|
$
|
(431.8)
|
$
|
252.1
|
||||||
Numerator
for basic earnings per share -
|
||||||||||||||
income
(loss) available to common stockholders
|
(48.0)
|
29.2
|
(431.8)
|
252.1
|
||||||||||
Numerator
for diluted earnings per share -
|
||||||||||||||
income
(loss) available to common stockholders
|
||||||||||||||
after
assumed
conversions
|
$
|
(48.0)
|
$
|
29.2
|
$
|
(431.8)
|
$
|
252.1
|
||||||
Denominator:
|
||||||||||||||
Denominator
for basic earnings per share -
|
||||||||||||||
Weighted-average
shares
(a)
|
230,735,600
|
231,014,468
|
230,716,219
|
231,627,204
|
||||||||||
Effect
of dilutive securities – stock options
|
-
|
1,284,174
|
-
|
1,820,905
|
||||||||||
Denominator
for diluted earnings per share -
|
||||||||||||||
adjusted
weighted-average shares
|
||||||||||||||
and
assumed conversions (a)
|
230,735,600
|
232,298,642
|
230,716,219
|
233,448,109
|
||||||||||
Earnings
per share:
|
Basic
|
$
|
(.21)
|
$
|
.13
|
$
|
(1.87)
|
$
|
1.09
|
|||||
Diluted
|
$
|
(.21)
|
$
|
.12
|
$
|
(1.87)
|
$
|
1.08
|
||||||
Anti-dilutive
outstanding stock option awards
excluded
from earning per share computations
|
15,284,846
|
6,773,862
|
15,284,846
|
3,847,875
|
||||||||||
(a) All per
share statistics have been restated to reflect all stock dividends and splits
declared through September 30, 2008.
3 Investments:
Effective
January 1, 2008, the Company adopted FAS 157, Fair Value Measurements,
which establishes a framework for measuring fair value, and applies to existing
accounting pronouncements that require or permit fair value measurements. A fair
value hierarchy is established that prioritizes the sources (“inputs”) used to
measure fair value into three broad levels: inputs based on quoted market prices
in active markets (Level 1); observable inputs based on corroboration with
available market data (Level 2); and unobservable inputs based on uncorroborated
market data or a reporting entity’s own assumptions (Level 3). The adoption of
FAS 157 has had no impact on the Company’s consolidated financial statements.
Following is a description of the valuation methodologies used for securities
measured at fair value, as well as the general classification of such securities
pursuant to the valuation hierarchy.
The
Company uses quoted values and other data provided by a nationally recognized
independent pricing source as inputs into its quarterly process for determining
fair values of its fixed maturity and equity securities. To validate the
techniques or models used by pricing sources, the Company’s review process
includes, but is not limited to: (i) initial and ongoing evaluation of
methodologies used by outside parties to calculate fair value; and (ii)
comparing the fair value estimates to its knowledge of the current market and to
independent fair value estimates provided by the investment custodian. The
independent pricing source obtains market quotations and actual transaction
prices for securities that have quoted prices in active markets using its own
proprietary method for determining the fair value of securities that are not
actively traded. In general, these methods involve the use of “matrix pricing”
in which the independent pricing source uses observable market inputs including,
but not limited to, investment yields, credit risks and spreads, benchmarking of
like securities, broker-dealer quotes, reported trades and sector groupings to
determine a reasonable fair market value.
Level 1
securities include U.S. and Canadian Treasury notes, publicly traded common
stocks, net asset value (“NAV”) quoted mutual funds and a substantial portion of
its short-term investments in highly liquid money market instruments and U.S.
and Canadian Treasury bills. Level 2 securities generally include corporate
bonds, municipal bonds and certain U.S. and Canadian government agency
securities. Securities classified within Level 3 include non-publicly traded
bonds, short-term investments and common stocks. There were no significant
changes in the fair value of assets measured with the use of significant
unobservable inputs during the nine months ended September 30,
2008.
8
The
following table shows a summary of assets measured at fair value segregated
among the various input levels required by FAS 157:
Fair
value measurements as of September 30, 2008:
|
|||||||||||
Level
1
|
Level
2
|
Level
3
|
Total
|
||||||||
Available
for sale:
|
|||||||||||
Fixed
maturity securities
|
$
|
277.4
|
$
|
6,997.6
|
$
|
10.5
|
$
|
7,285.6
|
|||
Equity
securities
|
440.2
|
.1
|
43.7
|
484.1
|
|||||||
Short-term
investments
|
721.9
|
-
|
7.1
|
729.1
|
Net
unrealized gains (losses) on investments amounted to $(6.2) at September 30,
2008. Unrealized appreciation (depreciation) of investments, before applicable
deferred income taxes (credits) of $(3.5) at September 30, 2008 included gross
unrealized gains (losses) of $159.8 and $(169.6) respectively. For the nine
months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007, changes in net unrealized appreciation
(depreciation) of investments, net of deferred income taxes (credits), amounted
to $(85.2) and $36.2, respectively. The amount of unrealized gains and losses is
affected by the Company’s estimates of securities that have been classified as
other-than-temporarily impaired (“OTTI”).
The
Company completes a detailed analysis each quarter to assess whether the decline
in the value of any investment below its cost basis is deemed
other-than-temporary. All securities in an unrealized loss position are
reviewed. Absent issuer-specific circumstances that would result in a contrary
conclusion, any equity security with an unrealized investment loss amounting to
a 20% or greater decline for a six month period is considered OTTI. The decline
in value of a security deemed OTTI is included in the determination of net
income and a new cost basis is established for financial reporting
purposes.
Realized
investment gains (losses) included $11.5 and $448.9 of write downs for
other-than-temporary declines in the estimated fair value of investments for the
quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2008, respectively. There were no
write downs for other-than-temporary declines in the estimated fair value of
investments for the quarter and nine months ended September 30,
2007.
A
valuation allowance of $42.0 (equivalent to a charge of $.18 per outstanding
share) was established against a deferred tax asset related to the Company’s
realized losses on investments at September 30, 2008. In valuing the deferred
tax asset, the Company considered certain factors including primarily the
scheduled reversals of certain deferred tax liabilities and the impact of
available carryback and carryforward periods. Based on these considerations, the
Company believes that it is more likely than not that it will realize the
benefits of the deferred tax assets related to realized losses, net of the
existing valuation allowance at September 30, 2008.
4.
|
Pension
Plans:
|
The
Company has three defined benefit pension plans covering a portion of its work
force. All three plans have been closed to new participants since December 31,
2004. It is the Company’s policy to fund the plans’ costs as they accrue. Plan
assets are comprised principally of bonds, common stocks and short-term
investments. The Companies made cash contributions of approximately $.7 and $2.9
to their pension plans in the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2008,
respectively, and expect to make cash contributions of approximately $1.1 to
their pension plans in the fourth quarter of 2008.
9
5. Information About Segments of
Business:
The
Company is engaged in the single business of insurance underwriting. It conducts
its operations through a number of regulated insurance company subsidiaries
organized into three major segments, namely its General Insurance (property and
liability insurance), Mortgage Guaranty and Title Insurance Groups. The results
of a small life & health insurance business are included with those of its
corporate and minor service operations. Each of the Company’s segments
underwrites and services only those insurance coverages which may be written by
it pursuant to state insurance regulations and corporate charter provisions.
Segment results exclude net realized investment gains or losses as these are
aggregated in the consolidated totals. The contributions of Old Republic’s
insurance industry segments to consolidated totals are shown in the following
table.
Quarters
Ended
September
30,
|
Nine
Months Ended
September
30,
|
|||||||||||
2008
|
2007
|
2008
|
2007
|
|||||||||
General
Insurance Group:
|
||||||||||||
Net
premiums earned
|
$
|
500.3
|
$
|
549.5
|
$
|
1,507.4
|
$
|
1,611.4
|
||||
Net
investment income and other income
|
65.3
|
70.0
|
201.2
|
210.1
|
||||||||
Total
revenues before realized gains or losses
|
$
|
565.7
|
$
|
619.5
|
$
|
1,708.7
|
$
|
1,821.5
|
||||
Income
(loss) before income taxes (credits) and
realized
investment gains or losses (a)
|
$
|
77.0
|
$
|
112.7
|
$
|
223.2
|
$
|
324.5
|
||||
Income
tax expense (credits) on above
|
$
|
22.0
|
$
|
34.6
|
$
|
63.3
|
$
|
98.9
|
||||
Mortgage
Guaranty Group:
|
||||||||||||
Net
premiums earned
|
$
|
148.4
|
$
|
133.9
|
$
|
445.2
|
$
|
377.0
|
||||
Net
investment income and other income
|
24.4
|
23.0
|
73.7
|
66.4
|
||||||||
Total
revenues before realized gains or losses
|
$
|
172.8
|
$
|
157.0
|
$
|
518.9
|
$
|
443.4
|
||||
Income
(loss) before income taxes (credits) and
realized
investment gains or losses
|
$
|
(152.8)
|
$
|
(83.0)
|
$
|
(415.9)
|
$
|
2.1
|
||||
Income
tax expense (credits) on above
|
$
|
(54.8)
|
$
|
(30.3)
|
$
|
(149.7)
|
$
|
(3.0)
|
||||
Title
Insurance Group:
|
||||||||||||
Net
premiums earned
|
$
|
117.9
|
$
|
168.1
|
$
|
357.1
|
$
|
491.9
|
||||
Title,
escrow and other fees
|
50.4
|
50.9
|
144.9
|
166.7
|
||||||||
Sub-total
|
168.4
|
219.1
|
502.1
|
658.7
|
||||||||
Net
investment income and other income
|
6.3
|
7.0
|
19.1
|
21.2
|
||||||||
Total
revenues before realized gains or losses
|
$
|
174.7
|
$
|
226.1
|
$
|
521.2
|
$
|
679.9
|
||||
Income
(loss) before income taxes (credits) and
realized investment gains or losses (a)
|
$
|
(9.7)
|
$
|
(3.3)
|
$
|
(27.0)
|
$
|
1.0
|
||||
Income
tax expense (credits) on above
|
$
|
(3.8)
|
$
|
(1.4)
|
$
|
(10.6)
|
$
|
(.8)
|
||||
Consolidated
Revenues:
|
||||||||||||
Total
revenues of above Company segments
|
$
|
913.3
|
$
|
1,002.8
|
$
|
2,748.8
|
$
|
2,945.0
|
||||
Other
sources (b)
|
30.6
|
31.4
|
99.7
|
96.5
|
||||||||
Consolidated
net realized investment gains (losses)
|
6.7
|
3.9
|
(422.8)
|
20.3
|
||||||||
Consolidation
elimination adjustments
|
(7.6)
|
(8.3)
|
(24.1)
|
(25.8)
|
||||||||
Consolidated
revenues
|
$
|
943.1
|
$
|
1,029.8
|
$
|
2,401.6
|
$
|
3,036.0
|
||||
Consolidated
Income (Loss) Before Taxes (Credits):
|
||||||||||||
Total
income (loss) before income taxes (credits)
and
realized investment gains or losses of
above
Company segments
|
$
|
(85.5)
|
$
|
26.4
|
$
|
(219.7)
|
$
|
327.7
|
||||
Other
sources – net (b)
|
5.3
|
4.6
|
11.4
|
9.9
|
||||||||
Consolidated
net realized investment gains (losses)
|
6.7
|
3.9
|
(422.8)
|
20.3
|
||||||||
Consolidated
income (loss)
before
income taxes (credits)
|
$
|
(73.4)
|
$
|
35.0
|
$
|
(631.1)
|
$
|
357.9
|
||||
Consolidated
Income Tax Expense (Credits):
|
||||||||||||
Total
income tax expense (credits)
for
above Company segments
|
$
|
(36.6)
|
$
|
2.7
|
$
|
(97.0)
|
$
|
95.1
|
||||
Other
sources – net (b)
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
3.6
|
3.5
|
||||||||
Income
tax expense (credits) on
consolidated
net realized investment gains (losses)
|
9.4
|
1.3
|
(105.9)
|
7.1
|
||||||||
Consolidated
income tax expense (credits)
|
$
|
(25.3)
|
$
|
5.8
|
$
|
(199.3)
|
$
|
105.7
|
10
September
2008
|
December
2007
|
||||||
Consolidated
Assets:
|
|||||||
General
|
$
|
9,622.7
|
$
|
9,769.9
|
|||
Mortgage
|
2,753.0
|
2,523.8
|
|||||
Title
|
741.8
|
770.4
|
|||||
Other
assets (b)
|
444.5
|
437.9
|
|||||
Consolidation
elimination adjustments
|
(358.3)
|
(211.5)
|
|||||
Consolidated
|
$
|
13,203.8
|
$
|
13,290.6
|
|||
In the
above tables, net premiums earned on a GAAP basis differ slightly from statutory
amounts due to certain differences in calculations of unearned premium reserves
under each accounting method.
(a)
|
Income
(loss) before taxes (credits) is reported net of interest charges on
intercompany financing arrangements with Old Republic’s holding company
parent for the following segments: General - $3.5 and $10.3 compared to
$3.4 and $11.7 for the quarter and nine months ending September 30, 2008
and 2007, respectively; Title - $.5 and $1.8 compared to $.6 and $1.5 for
the quarter and nine months ending September 30, 2008 and 2007,
respectively.
|
(b)
|
Represents
amounts for Old Republic’s holding company parent, minor corporate
services subsidiaries, and a small life and health insurance
operation.
|
|
6.
|
Commitments and Contingent
Liabilities:
|
Legal
proceedings against the Company arise in the normal course of business and
usually pertain to claim matters related to insurance policies and contracts
issued by its insurance subsidiaries. Other legal proceedings are discussed
below.
Purported
class action lawsuits are pending against the Company’s principal title
insurance subsidiary, Old Republic National Title Insurance Company (“ORNTIC”)
in state and federal courts in Connecticut, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and
Texas. The plaintiffs allege that ORNTIC failed to give consumers reissue and/or
refinance credits on the premiums charged for title insurance covering mortgage
refinancing transactions, as required by rate schedules filed by ORNTIC or by
state rating bureaus with the state insurance regulatory authorities. In none of
the actions against ORNTIC has a class yet been certified. Substantially similar
lawsuits are also pending against other unaffiliated title insurance companies
in these and other states as well, and additional lawsuits based upon similar
allegations could be filed against ORNTIC in the future.
Since
early February 2008, more than 75 purported consumer class action lawsuits have
been filed nationwide against the title industry’s principal title insurance
companies, their subsidiaries and affiliates, and title insurance rating bureaus
or associations in at least 10 states. The suits are substantially identical in
alleging that the defendant title insurers engaged in illegal price-fixing
agreements to set artificially high premium rates and conspired to create
premium rates which the state insurance regulatory authorities could not
evaluate and therefore, could not adequately regulate. A number of the suits
also allege violations of the federal Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act
(“RESPA”). The Company and its principal title insurance subsidiary, Old
Republic National Title Insurance Company, are currently among the named
defendants in 34 of these actions in 5 states, and are likely to be included in
others. A second subsidiary, American Guaranty Title Insurance Company, is also
named in most but not all of the same suits. No class has yet been
certified.
Also
pending certification as a class action is a suit against ORNTIC and Old
Republic Title, Ltd. in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of
Washington. Filed in May, 2008, the suit alleges that ORNTIC and its affiliate
deceptively charged fees for reconveyancing services they did not perform and
split the fees with settlement service providers in violation of RESPA. The
action seeks damages, declaratory and injunctive relief. No class has yet been
certified in the action.
At their
present stage, the impact of these lawsuits, all of which seek unquantified
damages, attorneys’ fees and expenses, is uncertain and not reasonably
estimable. The Company and its subsidiaries intend to defend vigorously against
each of the aforementioned actions. Although the Company does not believe that
these lawsuits will have a material adverse effect on its consolidated financial
condition, results of operations or cash flows, there can be no assurance in
those regards.
ORNTIC
and Old Republic Title Company succeeded in having the Superior Court of
Washington, King County, dismiss a previously disclosed lawsuit alleging that
they had overcharged customers for escrow related fees and failed to disclose
the interest or earnings credits realized on moneys deposited into escrow. The
plaintiffs in that suit chose not to appeal the decision. ORNTIC also settled
the previously disclosed suit brought by and on behalf of Hispanic home buyers
in Monterey County, California, for an immaterial
amount.
11
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
MANAGEMENT
ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL POSITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Nine
Months Ended September 30, 2008 and 2007
($ in
Millions, Except Share Data)
OVERVIEW
|
This management analysis of financial
position and results of operations pertains to the consolidated accounts of Old
Republic International Corporation (“Old Republic” or “the Company”). The
Company conducts its operations through three major regulatory segments, namely,
its General (property and liability), Mortgage Guaranty, and Title insurance
segments. A small life and health insurance business, accounting for 2.4% of
consolidated operating revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 and
2.0% of consolidated assets as of September 30, 2008, is included within the
corporate and other caption of this financial report. The consolidated accounts
are presented on the basis of generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”).
This management analysis should be read in conjunction with the consolidated
financial statements and the footnotes appended to them.
The insurance business is distinguished
from most others in that the prices (premiums) charged for various insurance
coverages are set without certainty of the ultimate benefit and claim costs that
will emerge or be incurred, often many years after issuance and expiration of a
policy. This basic fact casts Old Republic as a risk-taking enterprise managed
for the long run. Management therefore conducts the business with a primary
focus on achieving favorable underwriting results over cycles, and on the
maintenance of financial soundness in support of the insurance subsidiaries’
long-term obligations to insurance beneficiaries. To achieve these objectives,
adherence to insurance risk management principles is stressed, and asset
diversification and quality are emphasized. In addition to income arising from
Old Republic’s basic underwriting and related services functions, significant
investment income is earned from invested funds generated by those functions and
from shareholders’ capital. Investment management aims for stability of income
from interest and dividends, protection of capital, and sufficient liquidity to
meet insurance underwriting and other obligations as they become payable in the
future. Securities trading and the realization of capital gains are not
objectives. The investment philosophy is therefore best characterized as
emphasizing value, credit quality, and relatively long-term holding periods. The
Company’s ability to hold both fixed maturity and equity securities for long
periods of time is in turn enabled by the scheduling of maturities in
contemplation of an appropriate matching of assets and liabilities.
In light of the above factors, the
Company’s affairs are managed without regard to the arbitrary strictures of
quarterly or even annual reporting periods that American industry must observe.
In Old Republic’s view, such short reporting time frames do not comport well
with the long-term nature of much of its business. Management believes that the
Company’s operating results and financial condition can best be evaluated by
observing underwriting and overall operating performance trends over succeeding
five to ten year intervals. Such extended periods can encompass one or two
economic and/or underwriting cycles, and thereby provide appropriate time frames
for such cycles to run their course and for reserved claim costs to be
quantified with greater finality and effect.
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
|
Old Republic’s consolidated operating
results, which exclude net realized investment gains or losses, continued to
decline in this year’s third quarter and first nine months. The much
reduced performance stemmed from significant weakness in the Company’s
housing-related mortgage guaranty and title insurance lines in
particular. Management currently believes that the substantial
dislocations that have enveloped all businesses with housing and
mortgage-lending exposures are likely to exert negative pressures on earnings
well into 2009. These lowered expectations aside, the Company’s
strong financial underpinnings and the overall earnings sustainability of its
general insurance business should provide reasonable earnings support and
capital management flexibility for the anticipated resumption of positive
operating earnings trends in 2010 and beyond.
The year-over-year decline in book
value per share is mostly due to the shortfall in earnings, to cash outlays for
regular dividends to shareholders, and to lower market valuations of fixed
maturity and equity investments.
12
Consolidated Results – The
major components of Old Republic’s consolidated results for the periods reported
upon are shown below:
Quarters
Ended September 30,
|
Nine
Months Ended September 30,
|
|||||||||||||||||
2008
|
2007
|
Change
|
2008
|
2007
|
Change
|
|||||||||||||
Operating
revenues:
|
||||||||||||||||||
General
insurance
|
$
|
565.7
|
$
|
619.5
|
-8.7
|
%
|
$
|
1,708.7
|
$
|
1,821.5
|
-6.2
|
%
|
||||||
Mortgage
guaranty
|
172.8
|
157.0
|
10.1
|
518.9
|
443.4
|
17.0
|
||||||||||||
Title
insurance
|
174.7
|
226.1
|
-22.8
|
521.2
|
679.9
|
-23.3
|
||||||||||||
Corporate
and other
|
23.0
|
23.1
|
75.6
|
70.7
|
||||||||||||||
Total
|
$
|
936.3
|
$
|
1,025.9
|
-8.7
|
%
|
$
|
2,824.5
|
$
|
3,015.7
|
-6.3
|
%
|
||||||
Pretax
operating income (loss):
|
||||||||||||||||||
General
insurance
|
$
|
77.0
|
$
|
112.7
|
-31.7
|
%
|
$
|
223.2
|
$
|
324.5
|
-31.2
|
%
|
||||||
Mortgage
guaranty
|
(152.8)
|
(83.0)
|
-84.1
|
(415.9)
|
2.1
|
N/M
|
||||||||||||
Title
insurance
|
(9.7)
|
(3.3)
|
-191.9
|
(27.0)
|
1.0
|
N/M
|
||||||||||||
Corporate
and other
|
5.3
|
4.6
|
11.4
|
9.9
|
||||||||||||||
Sub-total
|
(80.1)
|
31.0
|
-357.8
|
(208.3)
|
337.6
|
-161.7
|
||||||||||||
Realized
investment gains (losses):
|
||||||||||||||||||
From
sales
|
18.3
|
3.9
|
26.0
|
20.3
|
||||||||||||||
From
impairments
|
(11.5)
|
-
|
(448.9)
|
-
|
||||||||||||||
Net
realized
investment
gains (losses)
|
6.7
|
3.9
|
(422.8)
|
20.3
|
||||||||||||||
Consolidated
pretax
income (loss)
|
(73.4)
|
35.0
|
-309.3
|
(631.1)
|
357.9
|
-276.3
|
||||||||||||
Income
taxes (credits)
|
(25.3)
|
5.8
|
-537.0
|
(199.3)
|
105.7
|
-288.4
|
||||||||||||
Net
income (loss)
|
$
|
(48.0)
|
$
|
29.2
|
-264.1
|
%
|
$
|
(431.8)
|
$
|
252.1
|
-271.2
|
%
|
||||||
Consolidated underwriting
ratio:
|
||||||||||||||||||
Benefits
and claims ratio
|
81.8%
|
66.4%
|
80.1%
|
55.6%
|
||||||||||||||
Expense
ratio
|
38.8
|
40.2
|
39.0
|
41.7
|
||||||||||||||
Composite
ratio
|
120.6%
|
106.6%
|
119.1%
|
97.3%
|
||||||||||||||
Components
of diluted
earnings
per share:
|
||||||||||||||||||
Net
operating income (loss)
|
$
|
(0.20)
|
$
|
0.11
|
-281.8
|
%
|
$
|
(0.50)
|
$
|
1.02
|
-149.0
|
%
|
||||||
Net
realized
investment
gains (losses)
|
(0.01)
|
0.01
|
(1.37)
|
0.06
|
||||||||||||||
Net
income (loss)
|
$
|
(0.21)
|
$
|
0.12
|
-275.0
|
%
|
$
|
(1.87)
|
$
|
1.08
|
-273.1
|
%
|
||||||
N/M
= not meaningful
|
The above table shows both operating
and net income to highlight the effects of realized investment gain or loss
recognition and any non-recurring items on period-to-period comparisons.
Operating income, however, does not replace net income computed in accordance
with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) as a measure of total
profitability.
The recognition of realized investment
gains or losses can be highly discretionary and arbitrary due to such factors as
the timing of individual securities sales, recognition of estimated losses from
write-downs for impaired securities, tax-planning considerations, and changes in
investment management judgments relative to the direction of securities markets
or the future prospects of individual investees or industry sectors. Likewise,
non-recurring items which may emerge from time to time, can distort the
comparability of the Company’s results from period to period. Accordingly,
management uses net operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, to evaluate
and better explain operating performance, and believes its use enhances an
understanding of Old Republic’s basic business results.
13
General Insurance Results –
General insurance operating income for the first nine months of 2008 was
affected mainly by moderately lower earned premiums and the higher claim ratios
shown in the following table:
General
Insurance Group
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30,
|
Nine
Months Ended September 30,
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2008
|
2007
|
Change
|
2008
|
2007
|
Change
|
|||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums earned
|
$
|
500.3
|
$
|
549.5
|
-8.9
|
%
|
$
|
1,507.4
|
$
|
1,611.4
|
-6.5
|
%
|
||||||||||
Net
investment income
|
61.9
|
65.3
|
-5.2
|
189.1
|
192.8
|
-1.9
|
||||||||||||||||
Pretax
operating income
|
$
|
77.0
|
$
|
112.7
|
-31.7
|
%
|
$
|
223.2
|
$
|
324.5
|
-31.2
|
%
|
||||||||||
Claims
ratio
|
72.5
|
%
|
67.7
|
%
|
72.8
|
%
|
66.5
|
%
|
||||||||||||||
Expense
ratio
|
23.8
|
23.0
|
24.2
|
24.5
|
||||||||||||||||||
Composite
ratio
|
96.3
|
%
|
90.7
|
%
|
97.0
|
%
|
91.0
|
%
|
Year-to-date earned premiums trended
lower as a moderately declining rate environment for most commercial insurance
prices in the past three years or so has hindered retention of some business and
precluded meaningful additions to Old Republic’s premium base. For this year’s
first nine months, the slightly lower top line was accompanied by the above
noted rise in claim ratios; these compare to an average of 66.8% for the five
most recent calendar years. This year’s higher claim ratio is attributable to
the combination of greater loss costs for most insurance coverages and to the
cumulative effect of softening premium rates. The higher loss costs were most
accentuated for Old Republic’s consumer credit indemnity, commercial
multi-peril, and general aviation coverages.
Underwriting and other expenses have
remained under good overall control; the resulting expense ratios compare
favorably year over year and with the average of 24.8% for the five years
through 2007.
Mortgage Guaranty Results –
Claim costs continued to rise due to higher mortgage loan delinquencies,
and claim frequency and severity. These higher costs were offset to some extent
by strong premium revenue gains during this year’s first half in particular.
However, pretax operating results were unprofitable for the fifth consecutive
quarter. Key indicators of this cyclical reversal in profitability for Old
Republic’s second largest business segment are shown below and in the
accompanying statistical exhibit.
Mortgage
Guaranty Group
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30,
|
Nine
Months Ended September 30,
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2008
|
2007
|
Change
|
2008
|
2007
|
Change
|
|||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums earned
|
$
|
148.4
|
$
|
133.9
|
10.8
|
%
|
$
|
445.2
|
$
|
377.0
|
18.1
|
%
|
||||||||||
Net
investment income
|
22.0
|
19.9
|
10.2
|
65.0
|
57.9
|
12.1
|
||||||||||||||||
Pretax
operating income (loss)
|
$
|
(152.8)
|
$
|
(83.0)
|
-84.1
|
%
|
$
|
(415.9)
|
$
|
2.1
|
N/M
|
|||||||||||
Claims
ratio
|
203.1
|
%
|
161.9
|
%
|
192.3
|
%
|
96.4
|
%
|
||||||||||||||
Expense
ratio
|
14.8
|
15.0
|
15.8
|
18.4
|
||||||||||||||||||
Composite
ratio
|
217.9
|
%
|
176.9
|
%
|
208.1
|
%
|
114.8
|
%
|
Mortgage guaranty premium growth in
this year’s first nine months was mostly due to a 20.0% increase in traditional
primary risk in force since September 2007. This increase stems from rising new
insurance writings during the second half of 2007 and first half of 2008 as a
result of greater market acceptance of traditional primary coverage and from
higher business persistency (81.4% on an annualized basis as of September 2008
versus 76.6% through the same month end of 2007.)
The
unprecedented cyclical downturn in housing and related mortgage finance
industries contributed to the above noted offsetting impact of higher claim
costs. Such costs reflect the combination of unfavorable loan default trends,
greater claim severity caused by the larger insured loan values of recent years,
and lessened opportunities to mitigate reported claims. Inflated inventories of
unsold homes, weakening home values, and a more restrictive credit environment
are main causes for the reduced mitigation opportunities, though greater numbers
of submitted claims are being rescinded due to detected frauds and material
deviations from required underwriting standards.
The
disparity between paid and incurred loss ratios shown in the above table stems
from much greater claim reserve provisions which accounted for 118.4 loss ratio
points in this year’s third quarter, compared to 117.8 loss ratio points in the
same quarter of 2007. For the first nine months, claim reserve provisions
produced increases of 125.7 and 57.4 loss ratio points in 2008 and 2007,
respectively. For all of 2007 reserve increases accounted for 76.3 points of
that year’s loss ratio of 118.8%. As of September 30, 2008, net claim reserves
of $1.20 billion were approximately 158.5% higher than they were twelve months
earlier, and 86.7% greater than the amount posted at year end 2007.
The lower production and operating
expense ratios for this year’s third quarter and first nine months continued to
be a bright spot in operating trends as greater premium volume has not been
accompanied by a corresponding increase in fixed operating costs. The beneficial
effect of the relatively lower expense ratio, however, was fully offset by the
more severe impact of the higher claim ratio.
14
In combination, the
above-cited factors produced a continuing uptrend in the composite underwriting
ratios. Underlining the extreme severity of the current cyclical downturn in the
housing and mortgage lending fields, this year’s nine month composite ratio
of 208.1% compares with an average of 74.0% registered during the
five years ended December 31, 2007.
Underwriting results notwithstanding,
Old Republic’s Mortgage Guaranty segment continued to post strong operating cash
flows. These have been additive to a high quality and liquid invested asset base
which reached $1.95 billion as of September 30, 2008, up 14.4% from the level
registered one year earlier. The greater invested asset base was mainly
responsible for the investment income growth posted in the periods reported
upon.
Title Insurance Results – Old
Republic’s title insurance business registered an operating loss for each of
this year’s quarters. Key operating performance indicators are shown in the
following table:
Title
Insurance Group
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30,
|
Nine
Months Ended September 30,
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2008
|
2007
|
Change
|
2008
|
2007
|
Change
|
|||||||||||||||||
Net
premiums and fees earned
|
$
|
168.4
|
$
|
219.1
|
-23.1
|
%
|
$
|
502.1
|
$
|
658.7
|
-23.8
|
%
|
||||||||||
Net
investment income
|
6.2
|
6.7
|
-6.9
|
19.1
|
20.2
|
-5.8
|
||||||||||||||||
Pretax
operating income (loss)
|
$
|
(9.7)
|
$
|
(3.3)
|
-191.9
|
%
|
$
|
(27.0)
|
$
|
1.0
|
N/M
|
|||||||||||
Claims
ratio
|
7.0
|
%
|
6.8
|
%
|
7.0
|
%
|
6.4
|
%
|
||||||||||||||
Expense
ratio
|
102.2
|
97.5
|
102.0
|
96.3
|
||||||||||||||||||
Composite
ratio
|
109.2
|
%
|
104.3
|
%
|
109.0
|
%
|
102.7
|
%
|
The ongoing cyclical downturn in the
housing and related mortgage lending sectors of the U.S. economy also led to
year-over-year reductions of premium and fee revenues for the Company’s Title
segment. Direct production facilities in the Western United States continued to
sustain the most significant bottom line adverse effects of this downturn. Claim
ratios in 2008 have trended up slightly as they did for all of 2007. While
overall 2008 production and operating expenses have dropped significantly, the
decline continues to be insufficient to counter the much larger reduction in
title premium and fees revenues.
Corporate and Other Operations –
The Company’s small life and health insurance business and the net costs
associated with the parent holding company and internal services subsidiaries
produced net operating gains in this year’s first nine
months. Period-to-period earnings variations for these relatively
minor elements of Old Republic’s operations usually stem from the volatility
inherent to the small scale of its life and health business, fluctuations in the
costs of external debt, and net interest on intra-system financing
arrangements.
Cash, Invested Assets, and
Shareholders’ Equity – The following table reflects Old Republic’s
consolidated cash and invested assets as well as shareholders’ equity at the
dates shown:
%
Change
|
||||||||||||||||
September
2008
|
December
2007
|
September
2007
|
Sept
‘08/
Dec
‘07
|
Sept
‘08/
Sept
‘07
|
||||||||||||
Cash
and invested assets - at fair value
|
$
|
8,733.7
|
$
|
8,924.0
|
$
|
8,762.4
|
-2.1
|
%
|
-0.3
|
%
|
||||||
Cash
and invested assets - at original cost
|
$
|
9,143.3
|
$
|
8,802.5
|
$
|
8,604.4
|
3.9
|
%
|
6.3
|
%
|
||||||
Shareholders’
equity:
|
||||||||||||||||
Total
|
$
|
3,914.3
|
$
|
4,541.6
|
$
|
4,563.9
|
-13.8
|
%
|
-14.2
|
%
|
||||||
Per
common share
|
$
|
16.96
|
$
|
19.71
|
$
|
19.81
|
-14.0
|
%
|
-14.4
|
%
|
||||||
Composition
of shareholders’ equity per share:
|
||||||||||||||||
Equity
before items below
|
$
|
16.96
|
$
|
19.31
|
$
|
19.37
|
-12.2
|
%
|
-12.4
|
%
|
||||||
Unrealized
investment gains or losses and other accumulated comprehensive
income
|
-
|
0.40
|
0.44
|
|||||||||||||
Total
|
$
|
16.96
|
$
|
19.71
|
$
|
19.81
|
-14.0
|
%
|
-14.4
|
%
|
Consolidated cash flow from operating
activities amounted to $467.6 for the first nine months of 2008 versus $642.7
for the same period in 2007.
The investment portfolio reflects a
current allocation of approximately 85% to fixed-maturity securities and 6% to
equities. As has been the case for many years, Old Republic’s invested assets
are managed in consideration of enterprise-wide risk management objectives
intended to assure solid funding of its subsidiaries’ long-term obligations to
insurance policyholders and other beneficiaries, as well as evaluations of their
long-term effect on stability of capital accounts. The
portfolio contains little or no insurance risk-correlated asset exposures to
real estate, mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations
(“CDO’s”), derivatives, junk bonds, or illiquid private equity investments. In a
similar vein, the Company does not engage in hedging transactions or securities
lending operations, nor does it invest in securities whose values are predicated
on non-regulated financial instruments exhibiting amorphous counter-party risk
attributes.
15
Substantially all changes in the
shareholders’ equity account reflect the Company’s net income or loss, dividend
payments to shareholders, and changes in market valuations of invested assets
for the periods reported upon. A summary of all changes in book value per share
follows:
Shareholders’
Equity Per Share
|
|||||||||
Quarter
Ended
September
30,
2008
|
Nine
Months
Ended
September
30,
2008
|
Fiscal
Twelve
Months
Ended
September
30,
2008
|
|||||||
Beginning
book value per share
|
$
|
17.59
|
$
|
19.71
|
$
|
19.81
|
|||
Changes
in shareholders’ equity for the periods:
|
|||||||||
Net
operating income (loss)
|
(0.20)
|
(0.50)
|
(0.55)
|
||||||
Net
realized investment gains (losses):
|
|||||||||
From
sales
|
0.05
|
0.07
|
0.21
|
||||||
From
impairments
|
(0.06)
|
(1.44)
|
(1.44)
|
||||||
Subtotal
|
(0.01)
|
(1.37)
|
(1.23)
|
||||||
Net
unrealized investment gains (losses)
|
(0.25)
|
(0.37)
|
(0.48)
|
||||||
Total
realized and unrealized investment gains (losses)
|
(0.26)
|
(1.74)
|
(1.71)
|
||||||
Cash
dividends
|
(0.17)
|
(0.50)
|
(0.66)
|
||||||
Stock
issuance, foreign exchange, and other transactions
|
-
|
(0.01)
|
0.07
|
||||||
Net
change
|
(0.63)
|
(2.75)
|
(2.85)
|
||||||
Ending
book value per share
|
$
|
16.96
|
$
|
16.96
|
$
|
16.96
|
As indicated in the table below, Old
Republic’s significant investments in the stocks of two leading publicly held
mortgage guaranty businesses (MGIC Investment Corp. and The PMI Group) and that
of a national title insurer (LandAmerica Financial Group) account for a
substantial portion of the investment losses reflected in the preceding summary.
Unrealized losses, including such losses as are categorized as
other-than-temporarily impaired (“OTTI”) represent the net difference between
the most recently established cost and the quarter-end market values of the
investments. These three significant investments account for approximately 85%
of the total net investment losses from impairments sustained by the Company in
2008. The aggregate cost, market value, and latest underlying equity values
reported by the three investees, are shown below.
Values
of Three Significant Investments
|
|||||||||||
As
of
|
|||||||||||
September
30,
2008
|
June
30,
2008
|
December
31,
2007
|
|||||||||
Total
value of the three investments:
|
Original
cost
|
$
|
512.9
|
$
|
509.8
|
$
|
435.7
|
||||
Impaired
cost
|
132.0
|
128.9
|
N/A
|
||||||||
Market
value
|
159.0
|
128.9
|
383.6
|
||||||||
Underlying
equity(*)
|
$
|
668.6
|
$
|
680.7
|
$
|
699.6
|
|||||
(*)
Underlying equity based on latest reports (usually lagging by one quarter)
issued by investees.
|
When making investment decisions,
management considers the Company’s ability to retain its holdings for a period
sufficient to recover their cost and to obtain a competitive long-term total
return. It also considers such factors as balance sheet effects of potential
changes in market valuations, asset-liability matching objectives, long term
ability to hold securities, tax planning considerations, and the investees’
reported book values and ability to continue as going concerns. The three
above-noted holdings were acquired as passive long-term investment additions to
two core segments of Old Republic’s business. In management’s judgment, the
currently negative market valuations of companies operating in the housing and
mortgage-lending sectors of the American economy have been impacted
significantly by the cyclical macroeconomic conditions affecting these sectors
and by the recently dysfunctional banking and mortgage lending
industries.
For external GAAP reporting purposes,
however, Old Republic uses a simplistic mark to market valuation process and
relatively short time frames in making periodic OTTI adjustments in its income
statement. In this context, absent issuer-specific circumstances that would
result in a contrary conclusion, all unrealized investment losses pertaining to
any equity security reflecting a 20% or greater decline for a six month period
are included in the determination of net income. Unrealized losses that are
deemed temporary and all unrealized gains are recorded directly as a separate
component of the shareholders’ equity account and in the consolidated statement
of comprehensive income. As a result of accounting idiosyncrasies, however, OTTI
losses recorded in the income statement of one period can not be offset in the
income statement of a subsequent period by market value gains on the previously
impaired securities unless the gains are realized through actual
sales. Such unrealized market value gains can only be recognized
through direct credits in the shareholders’ equity account and the consolidated
statement of comprehensive income.
16
DETAILED
MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS
|
FINANCIAL
ACCOUNTING AND REPORTING POLICIES
|
The Company’s annual and interim
financial statements incorporate a large number and types of estimates relative
to matters which are highly uncertain at the time the estimates are made. The
estimation process required of an insurance enterprise is by its very nature
highly dynamic inasmuch as it necessitates a continuous evaluation, analysis,
and quantification of factual data as it becomes known to the Company. As a
result, actual experienced outcomes can differ from the estimates made at any
point in time, and thus affect future periods’ reported revenues, expenses, net
income, and financial condition.
Old Republic believes that its most
critical accounting estimates relate to: a) the determination of
other-than-temporary impairments in the value of fixed maturity and equity
investments; b) the establishment of deferred acquisition costs which vary
directly with the production of insurance premiums; c) the recoverability of
reinsured paid and/or outstanding losses; and d) the establishment of reserves
for losses and loss adjustment expenses. The major assumptions and methods used
in setting these estimates are discussed in the Company’s 2007 Annual Report on
Form 10K.
In July 2006, the Financial Accounting
Standards Board (“FASB”) issued its Interpretation No. 48, Accounting for Uncertainty in Income
Taxes (“FIN 48”), which became effective for the Company in the first
quarter of 2007. FIN 48 provides recognition criteria and a related measurement
model for uncertain tax positions taken or expected to be taken in income tax
returns. FIN 48 requires that a position taken or expected to be taken in a tax
return be recognized in the financial statements when it is more likely than not
that the position would be sustained upon examination by tax authorities. The
Company’s unrecognized tax benefits, including interest and penalty accruals,
are not considered material to the consolidated financial statements and did not
change significantly upon the adoption of FIN 48. There are no tax uncertainties
that are expected to result in significant increases or decreases to
unrecognized tax benefits within the next twelve month period. As indicated in
Note 1 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, the Company believes
that the major uncertainties relating to its tax position pertain to timing
differences in the recognition of taxable income. Accordingly, the annual
effective tax rate, other than possible interest and penalties, would be largely
unaffected as an increase in currently due income taxes would likely be offset
by a corresponding deferred income tax adjustment.
In
September 2006, the FASB issued Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.
157 Fair Value
Measurements (“FAS 157”), which establishes a framework for measuring
fair value. FAS 157 applies to existing accounting pronouncements that require
or permit fair value measurements, and became effective for the Company in the
first quarter of 2008. Disclosure requirements associated with the standard have
been incorporated in Note 3 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
The
adoption of FIN 48 and FAS 157 result in additional financial statement
disclosures for GAAP reporting purposes and has no effect on the conduct of the
Company’s business, its financial condition and results of
operations.
FINANCIAL
POSITION
|
The Company’s financial position at
September 30, 2008 reflected decreases in assets and common shareholders’ equity
of .7%, and 13.8%, respectively, and increased liabilities of 6.2% when compared
to the immediately preceding year-end. Cash and invested assets represented
66.1% and 67.1% of consolidated assets as of September 30, 2008 and December 31,
2007, respectively. Consolidated operating cash flow was positive at $467.6 in
the first nine months of 2008 compared to $642.7 in the same period of 2007. As
of September 30, 2008, invested assets decreased 2.5% to $8,539.6 principally as
a result of a net decline in the market valuation of such assets.
Investments
- During the
first nine months of 2008 and 2007, the Company committed most investable funds
to short to intermediate-term fixed maturity securities. At both September 30,
2008 and 2007, approximately 99% of the Company’s investments consisted of
marketable securities. Old Republic continues to adhere to its long-term policy
of investing primarily in investment grade, marketable securities. Investable
funds have not been directed to so-called “junk bonds”, illiquid private equity
investments, real estate, mortgage loans, mortgage-backed securities,
collateralized debt obligations (“CDO’s”), or derivatives. In a similar vein,
the Company does not invest in securities whose values are predicated on
non-regulated financial instruments exhibiting amorphous counter-party risk
attributes. At September 30, 2008, the Company had fixed maturity investments
with an amortized cost of $13.1 in default as to principal and/or
interest.
Relatively
high short-term maturity investment positions continued to be maintained as of
September 30, 2008. Such positions reflect a large variety of seasonal and
intermediate-term factors including current operating needs, expected operating
cash flows, quarter-end cash flow seasonality, and investment strategy
considerations. Accordingly, the future level of short-term investments will
vary and respond to the interplay of these factors and may, as a result,
increase or decrease from current levels.
17
The
Company does not own or utilize derivative financial instruments for the purpose
of hedging, enhancing the overall return of its investment portfolio, or
reducing the cost of its debt obligations. With regard to its equity portfolio,
the Company does not own any options nor does it engage in any type of option
writing. Traditional investment management tools and techniques are employed to
address the yield and valuation exposures of the invested assets base. The
long-term fixed maturity investment portfolio is managed so as to limit various
risks inherent in the bond market. Credit risk is addressed through asset
diversification and the purchase of investment grade securities. Reinvestment
rate risk is reduced by concentrating on non-callable issues, and by taking
asset-liability matching considerations into account. Purchases of mortgage and
asset backed securities, which have variable principal prepayment options, are
generally avoided. Market value risk is limited through the purchase of bonds of
intermediate maturity. The combination of these investment management practices
is expected to produce a more stable long-term fixed maturity investment
portfolio that is not subject to extreme interest rate sensitivity and principal
deterioration.
The
market value of the Company’s long-term fixed maturity investment portfolio is
sensitive, however, to fluctuations in the level of interest rates, but not
materially affected by changes in anticipated cash flows caused by any
prepayments. The impact of interest rate movements on the long-term fixed
maturity investment portfolio generally affects net unrealized gains or losses.
As a general rule, rising interest rates enhance currently available yields but
typically lead to a reduction in the fair value of existing fixed maturity
investments. By contrast, a decline in such rates reduces currently available
yields but usually serves to increase the fair value of the existing fixed
maturity investment portfolio. All such changes in fair value are reflected, net
of deferred income taxes, directly in the shareholders’ equity account, and as a
separate component of the statement of comprehensive income. Given the Company’s
inability to forecast or control the movement of interest rates, Old Republic
sets the maturity spectrum of its fixed maturity securities portfolio within
parameters of estimated liability payouts, and focuses the overall portfolio on
high quality investments. By so doing, Old Republic believes it is reasonably
assured of its ability to hold securities to maturity as it may deem necessary
in changing environments, and of ultimately recovering their aggregate
cost.
Possible
future declines in fair values for Old Republic’s bond and stock portfolios
would negatively affect the common shareholders’ equity account at any point in
time, but would not necessarily result in the recognition of realized investment
losses. The Company reviews the status and market value changes of each of its
investments on at least a quarterly basis during the year, and estimates of
other-than-temporary impairments in the portfolio’s value are evaluated and
established at each quarterly balance sheet date. In reviewing investments for
other-than-temporary impairment, the Company, in addition to a security’s market
price history, considers the totality of such factors as the issuer’s operating
results, financial condition and liquidity, its ability to access capital
markets, credit rating trends, most current audit opinion, industry and
securities markets conditions, and analyst expectations to reach its
conclusions. Sudden market value declines caused by such adverse developments as
newly emerged or imminent bankruptcy filings, issuer default on significant
obligations, or reports of financial accounting developments that bring into
question the validity of previously reported earnings or financial condition,
are recognized as realized losses as soon as credible publicly available
information emerges to confirm such developments. In the event the Company’s
estimate of other-than-temporary impairments is insufficient at any point in
time, future periods’ net income would be affected adversely by the recognition
of additional realized or impairment losses, but its financial condition would
not necessarily be affected adversely inasmuch as such losses, or a portion of
them, could have been recognized previously as unrealized
losses.
18
The
following tables show certain information relating to the Company’s fixed
maturity and equity portfolios as of the dates shown:
Credit
Quality Ratings of Fixed Maturity Securities
(a)
|
September
2008
|
December
2007
|
|||||||
Aaa
|
20.5
|
%
|
32.9
|
%
|
||||
Aa
|
25.1
|
17.0
|
||||||
A
|
31.8
|
27.9
|
||||||
Baa
|
20.6
|
20.2
|
||||||
Total
investment grade
|
98.0
|
98.0
|
||||||
All
other (b)
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
||||||
Total
|
100.0
|
%
|
100.0
|
%
|
||||
|
(a)
|
Credit
quality ratings used are those assigned primarily by Moody’s; other
ratings are assigned by Standard & Poor’s and converted to equivalent
Moody’s ratings classifications.
|
|
(b)
|
“All
other” includes non-investment grade or non-rated small issues of
tax-exempt bonds.
|
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Industry Concentration for Non-Investment
Grade Fixed Maturity Securities
|
September
30, 2008
|
||||||||
Amortized
Cost
|
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
|
|||||||
Fixed
Maturity Securities by Industry Concentration:
|
||||||||
Services
|
$
|
39.3
|
$
|
8.8
|
||||
Consumer
Durables
|
37.3
|
5.4
|
||||||
Financial
|
13.8
|
4.1
|
||||||
Retail
|
17.1
|
1.9
|
||||||
Other
(includes 5 industry groups)
|
24.5
|
1.6
|
||||||
Total
|
$
|
132.2
|
(c)
|
$
|
22.0
|
|||
|
(c)
|
Represents
1.8% of the total fixed maturity securities
portfolio.
|
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Industry Concentration for Investment
Grade Fixed Maturity Securities
|
September
30, 2008
|
||||||||
Amortized
Cost
|
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
|
|||||||
Fixed
Maturity Securities by Industry Concentration:
|
||||||||
Banking
|
$
|
296.2
|
$
|
32.1
|
||||
Utilities
|
590.3
|
21.9
|
||||||
Financial
|
221.0
|
15.8
|
||||||
Municipals
|
1,001.7
|
13.2
|
||||||
Other
(includes 17 industry groups)
|
1,758.7
|
56.6
|
||||||
Total
|
$
|
3,868.1
|
(d)
|
$
|
139.7
|
|||
|
(d)
|
Represents
52.4% of the total fixed maturity securities
portfolio.
|
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Industry Concentration for Equity
Securities
|
September
30, 2008
|
||||||||
Cost
|
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
|
|||||||
Equity
Securities by Industry Concentration:
|
||||||||
Index
Funds
|
$
|
112.8
|
$
|
4.4
|
||||
Insurance
|
5.9
|
.4
|
||||||
Utilities
|
6.8
|
-
|
||||||
Total
|
$
|
125.5
|
(e)
|
$
|
4.8
|
(f)
|
||
|
(e)
|
Represents
31.1% of the total equity securities
portfolio.
|
|
(f)
|
Represents
1.2% of the cost of the total equity securities portfolio, while gross
unrealized gains represent 20.9% of the
portfolio.
|
19
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Maturity Ranges For All Fixed Maturity
Securities
|
September
30, 2008
|
||||||||||||
Amortized
Costs of
Fixed
Maturity Securities
|
Gross
Unrealized Losses
|
|||||||||||
All
|
Non-
Investment
Grade
Only
|
All
|
Non-
Investment
Grade
Only
|
|||||||||
Maturity
Ranges:
|
||||||||||||
Due
in one year or less
|
$
|
506.6
|
$
|
33.2
|
$
|
9.6
|
$
|
.6
|
||||
Due
after one year through five years
|
1,658.6
|
83.7
|
67.0
|
16.5
|
||||||||
Due
after five years through ten years
|
1,814.6
|
15.2
|
83.9
|
4.8
|
||||||||
Due
after ten years
|
20.4
|
-
|
1.2
|
-
|
||||||||
Total
|
$
|
4,000.4
|
$
|
132.2
|
$
|
161.8
|
$
|
22.0
|
Gross
Unrealized Losses Stratified by Duration and Amount of Unrealized
Losses
|
September
30, 2008
|
|||||||||||||
Amount
of Gross Unrealized Losses
|
|||||||||||||
Less
than
20%
of Cost
|
20%
to 50%
of
Cost
|
More
than
50%
of Cost
|
Total
Gross
Unrealized
Loss
|
||||||||||
Number
of Months in Loss Position:
|
|||||||||||||
Fixed
Maturity Securities:
|
|||||||||||||
One
to six months
|
$
|
78.3
|
$
|
5.4
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
83.8
|
|||||
Seven
to twelve months
|
4.0
|
1.9
|
3.3
|
9.3
|
|||||||||
More
than twelve months
|
39.6
|
23.2
|
5.7
|
68.6
|
|||||||||
Total
|
$
|
122.0
|
$
|
30.7
|
$
|
9.0
|
$
|
161.8
|
|||||
Equity
Securities:
|
|||||||||||||
One
to six months
|
$
|
4.8
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
4.8
|
|||||
Seven
to twelve months
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||
More
than twelve months
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||
Total
|
$
|
4.8
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
4.8
|
|||||
Number
of Issues in Loss Position:
|
|||||||||||||
Fixed
Maturity Securities:
|
|||||||||||||
One
to six months
|
851
|
6
|
-
|
857
|
|||||||||
Seven
to twelve months
|
12
|
2
|
1
|
15
|
|||||||||
More
than twelve months
|
131
|
12
|
3
|
146
|
|||||||||
Total
|
994
|
20
|
4
|
1,018
|
(g)
|
||||||||
Equity
Securities:
|
|||||||||||||
One
to six months
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
4
|
|||||||||
Seven
to twelve months
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|||||||||
More
than twelve months
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
1
|
|||||||||
Total
|
4
|
-
|
1
|
5
|
(g)
|
||||||||
|
(g)
|
At
September 30, 2008 the number of issues in an unrealized loss position
represent 51.6% as to fixed maturities, and 29.4% as to equity securities
of the total number of such issues held by the
Company.
|
The aging
of issues with unrealized losses employs closing market price comparisons with
an issue’s adjusted cost. The percentage reduction from adjusted cost reflects
the decline as of a specific point in time (September 30, 2008 in the previous
table) and, accordingly, is not indicative of a security’s value having been
consistently below its cost at the percentages and throughout the periods
shown.
20
Age
Distribution of Fixed Maturity
Securities
|
September
30,
|
December
31,
|
|||||
2008
|
2007
|
|||||
Maturity
Ranges:
|
||||||
Due
in one year or less
|
14.0%
|
11.7%
|
||||
Due
after one year through five years
|
51.1
|
46.8
|
||||
Due
after five years through ten years
|
34.7
|
41.1
|
||||
Due
after ten years through fifteen years
|
.2
|
.4
|
||||
Due
after fifteen years
|
-
|
-
|
||||
Total
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
||||
Average
Maturity in Years
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
||||
Duration
(h)
|
3.6
|
3.8
|
||||
|
(h)
|
Duration
is used as a measure of bond price sensitivity to interest rate changes. A
duration of 3.6 as of September 30, 2008 implies that a 100 basis point
parallel increase in interest rates from current levels would result in a
possible decline in the market value of the long-term fixed maturity
investment portfolio of approximately
3.6%.
|
Composition
of Unrealized Gains (Losses)
|
September
30,
|
December
31,
|
||||||
2008
|
2007
|
||||||
Fixed
Maturity Securities:
|
|||||||
Amortized
cost
|
$
|
7,381.1
|
$
|
7,312.2
|
|||
Estimated
fair value
|
7,285.6
|
7,383.6
|
|||||
Gross
unrealized gains
|
66.3
|
106.9
|
|||||
Gross
unrealized losses
|
(161.8)
|
(35.6)
|
|||||
Net
unrealized gains (losses)
|
$
|
(95.5)
|
$
|
71.3
|
|||
Equity
Securities:
|
|||||||
Original
cost
|
$
|
792.6
|
$
|
807.3
|
|||
Impaired
cost
|
404.4
|
N/A
|
|||||
Estimated
fair value
|
484.1
|
842.1
|
|||||
Gross
unrealized gains
|
84.6
|
115.1
|
|||||
Gross
unrealized losses
|
(4.8)
|
(80.4)
|
|||||
Net
unrealized gains (losses)
|
$
|
79.7
|
$
|
34.7
|
Other
Assets - Among
other major assets, substantially all of the Company’s receivables are not past
due. Reinsurance recoverable balances on paid or estimated unpaid losses are
deemed recoverable from solvent reinsurers or have otherwise been reduced by
allowances for estimated amounts unrecoverable. Deferred policy acquisition
costs are estimated by taking into account the variable costs of producing
specific types of insurance policies, and evaluating their recoverability on the
basis of recent trends in claims costs. The Company’s deferred policy
acquisition cost balances have not fluctuated substantially from
period-to-period and do not represent significant percentages of assets or
shareholders’ equity.
Liquidity
- The parent
holding company meets its liquidity and capital needs principally through
dividends paid by its subsidiaries. The insurance subsidiaries' ability to pay
cash dividends to the parent company is generally restricted by law or subject
to approval of the insurance regulatory authorities of the states in which they
are domiciled. The Company can receive up to $414.7 in dividends from its
subsidiaries in 2008 without the prior approval of regulatory authorities. The
liquidity achievable through such permitted dividend payments is more than
adequate to cover the parent holding company’s currently expected cash outflows
represented mostly by interest and scheduled repayments on outstanding debt,
quarterly cash dividend payments to shareholders, modest operating expenses at
the holding company, and the near-term capital needs of its operating company
subsidiaries. In addition, Old Republic can currently access the commercial
paper market for up to $265.0 to meet unanticipated liquidity needs of which
$120.0 was outstanding at September 30, 2008.
Capitalization
- Old Republic’s
total capitalization of $4,038.4 at September 30, 2008
consisted of debt of $124.1 and common shareholders' equity of $3,914.3. Changes
in the common shareholders’ equity account reflect primarily operating results
for the period then ended, dividend payments, and changes in market valuations
of invested assets. Old Republic has paid cash dividends to its shareholders
without interruption since 1942, and has increased the regular annual rate in
each of the past 27 years. The annual dividend rate is typically reviewed and
approved by the Board of Directors in the first quarter of each year. In
establishing each year’s cash dividend rate the Company does not follow a strict
formulaic approach. Rather, it favors a gradual rise in the annual dividend rate
that is largely reflective of long-term consolidated operating earnings trends.
Accordingly, each year’s dividend rate is set judgmentally in consideration
of
21
such key
factors as the dividend paying capacity of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries,
the trends in average annual statutory and GAAP earnings for the six most recent
calendar years, and management’s long-term expectations for the Company’s
consolidated business. At its February, 2008 meeting, the Board of Directors
approved a new quarterly cash dividend rate of 17 cents per share effective in
the second quarter of 2008, up from 16 cents per share, subject to the usual
quarterly authorizations.
The Company’s mortgage guaranty
statutory insurance company subsidiaries are limited by state regulation to
operate with a risk to capital ratio not to exceed 25:1. Despite the significant
operating losses experienced by the Company’s mortgage guaranty segment over the
past 15 months, the risk to capital ratio at September 30, 2008 is 16.1:1. The
Company continuously monitors the key leverage and capital adequacy ratios of
all its operating subsidiaries.
RESULTS
OF OPERATIONS
|
Revenues: Premiums
& Fees
|
Pursuant to GAAP applicable to the
insurance industry, revenues are associated with the related benefits, claims,
and expenses.
Substantially all general insurance
premiums are reflected in income on a pro-rata basis. Earned but unbilled
premiums are generally taken into income on the billing date, while adjustments
for retrospective premiums, commissions and similar charges or credits are
accrued on the basis of periodic evaluations of current underwriting experience
and contractual obligations.
The Company’s mortgage guaranty
premiums primarily stem from monthly installment policies. Accordingly,
substantially all such premiums are generally written and earned in the month
coverage is effective. With respect to annual or single premium policies, earned
premiums are largely recognized on a pro-rata basis over the terms of the
policies.
Title premium and fee revenues stemming
from the Company’s direct operations (which include branch offices of its title
insurers and wholly owned agency subsidiaries) represent approximately 36% of
2008 consolidated title business revenues. Such premiums are generally
recognized as income at the escrow closing date which approximates the policy
effective date. Fee income related to escrow and other closing services is
recognized when the related services have been performed and completed. The
remaining 64% of consolidated title premium and fee revenues is produced by
independent title agents and underwritten title companies. Rather than making
estimates that could be subject to significant variance from actual premium and
fee production, the Company recognizes revenues from those sources upon receipt.
Such receipts can reflect a three to four month lag relative to the effective
date of the underlying title policy, and are offset concurrently by production
expenses and claim reserve provisions.
The major sources of Old Republic’s
earned premiums and fees for the periods shown were as follows:
Earned
Premiums and Fees
|
|||||||||||||||||
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Other
|
Total
|
%
Change
from
prior
period
|
||||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
|||||||||||||||||
2005
|
$
|
1,805.2
|
$
|
429.5
|
$
|
1,081.8
|
$
|
70.3
|
$
|
3,386.9
|
8.7
|
%
|
|||||
2006
|
1,902.1
|
444.3
|
980.0
|
74.1
|
3,400.5
|
.4
|
|||||||||||
2007
|
2,155.1
|
518.2
|
850.7
|
77.0
|
3,601.2
|
5.9
|
|||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
|||||||||||||||||
2007
|
1,611.4
|
377.0
|
658.7
|
57.0
|
2,704.2
|
5.6
|
|||||||||||
2008
|
1,507.4
|
445.2
|
502.1
|
62.7
|
2,517.5
|
-6.9
|
|||||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
|||||||||||||||||
2007
|
549.5
|
133.9
|
219.1
|
18.6
|
921.1
|
6.0
|
|||||||||||
2008
|
$
|
500.3
|
$
|
148.4
|
$
|
168.4
|
$
|
18.0
|
$
|
835.2
|
-9.3
|
%
|
22
The percentage allocation of net
premiums earned for major insurance coverages in the General Insurance Group was
as follows:
General
Insurance Earned Premiums by Type of Coverage
|
|||||||||||
Commercial
Automobile
(mostly
trucking)
|
Workers’
Compensation
|
Financial
Indemnity
|
Inland
Marine
and
Property
|
General
Liability
|
Other
|
||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
|||||||||||
2005
|
39.1%
|
21.9%
|
10.3%
|
11.0%
|
5.4%
|
12.3%
|
|||||
2006
|
39.6
|
21.7
|
11.0
|
10.7
|
5.1
|
11.9
|
|||||
2007
|
35.0
|
23.5
|
13.8
|
9.3
|
7.8
|
10.6
|
|||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
|||||||||||
2007
|
35.0
|
23.5
|
13.6
|
9.1
|
7.8
|
11.0
|
|||||
2008
|
34.5
|
21.1
|
16.0
|
9.6
|
7.7
|
11.1
|
|||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
|||||||||||
2007
|
34.0
|
21.8
|
16.2
|
8.9
|
7.8
|
11.3
|
|||||
2008
|
34.8%
|
20.8%
|
15.7%
|
9.3%
|
7.4%
|
12.0%
|
The following tables provide
information on production and related risk exposure trends for Old Republic’s
Mortgage Guaranty Group.
Mortgage
Guaranty Production by Type
|
||||||||||||
New
Insurance Written:
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
|
Other
|
Total
|
||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||
2005
|
$
|
20,554.5
|
$
|
9,944.3
|
$
|
498.2
|
$
|
30,997.1
|
||||
2006
|
17,187.0
|
13,716.7
|
583.7
|
31,487.5
|
||||||||
2007
|
31,841.7
|
10,800.3
|
901.6
|
43,543.7
|
||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
21,174.3
|
10,667.5
|
443.9
|
32,285.7
|
||||||||
2008
|
18,171.6
|
3.5
|
1,096.2
|
19,271.4
|
||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
9,398.8
|
2,180.5
|
197.1
|
11,776.5
|
||||||||
2008
|
$
|
4,318.6
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
383.6
|
$
|
4,702.2
|
||||
New Risk Written by
Type:
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
|
Other
|
Total
|
||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||
2005
|
$
|
5,112.4
|
$
|
1,053.1
|
$
|
11.7
|
$
|
6,177.4
|
||||
2006
|
4,246.8
|
1,146.6
|
12.2
|
5,405.7
|
||||||||
2007
|
7,844.5
|
724.5
|
15.2
|
8,584.4
|
||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
5,199.6
|
696.3
|
10.7
|
5,906.7
|
||||||||
2008
|
4,213.2
|
.6
|
11.2
|
4,225.2
|
||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
2,352.5
|
161.7
|
3.4
|
2,517.8
|
||||||||
2008
|
$
|
999.7
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
4.0
|
$
|
1,003.8
|
||||
Earned
Premiums
|
Persistency
|
|||||||||||
Premium and
Persistency Trends by Type:
|
Direct
|
Net
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
|
||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||
2005
|
$
|
508.0
|
$
|
429.5
|
65.5%
|
59.5%
|
||||||
2006
|
524.7
|
444.3
|
73.1
|
70.5
|
||||||||
2007
|
612.7
|
518.2
|
77.6
|
73.7
|
||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
444.2
|
377.0
|
76.6
|
67.6
|
||||||||
2008
|
526.0
|
445.2
|
81.4%
|
86.3%
|
||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
157.4
|
133.9
|
||||||||||
2008
|
$
|
175.3
|
$
|
148.4
|
While there is no consensus in the
marketplace as to the precise definition of “sub-prime”, Old Republic generally
views loans with Fair, Issac & Company (“FICO”) credit scores below 620,
loans underwritten with reduced levels of documentation and loans with loan to
value ratios in excess of 95% as having a higher risk of default. Risk in force
concentrations by these attributes are disclosed in the following tables for
both traditional primary and bulk production.
23
Premium
rates for loans exhibiting greater risk attributes are typically higher in
anticipation of potentially greater defaults and claim costs. Additionally, bulk
insurance policies, which represent 9.2% of total net risk in force, are
frequently subject to deductibles and aggregate stop losses which serve to limit
the overall risk on a pool of insured loans. As the decline in the housing
markets has accelerated and mortgage lending standards have tightened, rising
defaults and the attendant increases in reserves and paid claims on higher risk
loans have become more significant drivers of increased claim
costs.
Net
Risk in Force
|
|||||||||||||
Net Risk in Force by
Type:
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
|
Other
|
Total
|
|||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||||||||||
2005
|
$
|
14,711.2
|
$
|
1,758.8
|
$
|
586.1
|
$
|
17,056.2
|
|||||
2006
|
14,582.1
|
2,471.1
|
578.9
|
17,632.2
|
|||||||||
2007
|
18,808.5
|
2,539.9
|
511.1
|
21,859.5
|
|||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
|||||||||||||
2007
|
17,070.6
|
2,641.7
|
507.3
|
20,219.7
|
|||||||||
2008
|
$
|
20,489.5
|
$
|
2,116.8
|
$
|
458.8
|
$
|
23,065.2
|
Analysis
of Risk in Force
|
|||||||||
Risk in Force
Distribution By FICO Scores:
|
FICO
less
than
620
|
FICO
620
to
680
|
FICO
Greater
than
680
|
Unscored/
Unavailable
|
|||||
Traditional
Primary:
|
|||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||||||
2005
|
8.3%
|
31.8%
|
53.1%
|
6.8%
|
|||||
2006
|
8.5
|
32.6
|
54.6
|
4.3
|
|||||
2007
|
8.5
|
33.6
|
55.1
|
2.8
|
|||||
As
of September 30:
|
|||||||||
2007
|
8.7
|
33.7
|
54.4
|
3.2
|
|||||
2008
|
7.2%
|
31.2%
|
59.5%
|
2.1%
|
|||||
Bulk(a):
|
|||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||||||
2005
|
21.2%
|
38.7%
|
38.7%
|
1.4%
|
|||||
2006
|
24.1
|
35.7
|
39.8
|
.4
|
|||||
2007
|
19.4
|
34.9
|
45.4
|
.3
|
|||||
As
of September 30:
|
|||||||||
2007
|
19.7
|
35.1
|
45.0
|
.2
|
|||||
2008
|
18.6%
|
33.8%
|
47.4%
|
.2%
|
|||||
Risk in Force
Distribution By Loan to Value (“LTV”) Ratio:
|
LTV
less
than 85
|
LTV
85
to 90
|
LTV
90
to 95
|
LTV
Greater
than
95
|
|||||
Traditional
Primary:
|
|||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||||||
2005
|
5.4%
|
37.7%
|
39.1%
|
17.8%
|
|||||
2006
|
5.0
|
37.4
|
36.0
|
21.6
|
|||||
2007
|
4.7
|
34.4
|
32.0
|
28.9
|
|||||
As
of September 30:
|
|||||||||
2007
|
4.7
|
35.2
|
32.5
|
27.6
|
|||||
2008
|
5.2%
|
35.1%
|
31.5%
|
28.2%
|
|||||
Bulk(a):
|
|||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||||||
2005
|
57.3%
|
27.4%
|
11.6%
|
3.7%
|
|||||
2006
|
63.4
|
23.1
|
9.0
|
4.5
|
|||||
2007
|
62.0
|
20.9
|
9.3
|
7.8
|
|||||
As
of September 30:
|
|||||||||
2007
|
62.6
|
20.8
|
9.2
|
7.4
|
|||||
2008
|
63.2%
|
20.3%
|
8.7%
|
7.8%
|
|||||
|
(a)
|
Bulk
pool risk in-force, which represented 44.1% of total bulk risk in-force at
September 30, 2008, has been allocated pro-rata based on insurance
in-force.
|
24
Risk in Force Distribution
By Top Ten States:
Traditional
Primary
|
|||||||||||||||||||
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
CA
|
NJ
|
VA
|
NC
|
PA
|
||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
9.0%
|
7.1%
|
6.3%
|
5.4%
|
3.7%
|
3.6%
|
3.1%
|
2.8%
|
4.7%
|
3.8%
|
|||||||||
2006
|
9.0
|
7.5
|
5.8
|
5.4
|
3.7
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
2.8
|
4.8
|
4.0
|
|||||||||
2007
|
8.9
|
7.7
|
5.3
|
5.2
|
3.4
|
4.5
|
3.1
|
2.8
|
4.5
|
3.8
|
|||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
|||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
8.9
|
7.7
|
5.4
|
5.2
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
3.1
|
2.8
|
4.6
|
3.9
|
|||||||||
2008
|
8.4%
|
8.0%
|
5.2%
|
5.2%
|
3.2%
|
5.4%
|
3.1%
|
2.9%
|
4.4%
|
3.8%
|
Bulk(a)
|
|||||||||||||||||||
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
CA
|
NJ
|
AZ
|
CO
|
NY
|
||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
8.3%
|
4.5%
|
3.3%
|
4.9%
|
3.6%
|
19.0%
|
3.8%
|
4.0%
|
2.7%
|
6.3%
|
|||||||||
2006
|
9.4
|
4.8
|
3.6
|
4.5
|
3.4
|
17.7
|
3.2
|
4.4
|
2.8
|
4.6
|
|||||||||
2007
|
9.3
|
4.8
|
4.2
|
4.1
|
3.1
|
17.5
|
3.4
|
4.2
|
3.0
|
5.5
|
|||||||||
As of
September 30:
|
|||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
9.0
|
4.8
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
3.2
|
17.4
|
3.5
|
4.2
|
3.0
|
5.7
|
|||||||||
2008
|
9.9%
|
4.6%
|
4.0%
|
4.0%
|
3.1%
|
18.2%
|
3.4%
|
4.3%
|
3.0%
|
5.3%
|
Risk in Force
Distribution By Level of Documentation:
|
Full
Documentation
|
Reduced
Documentation
|
|||
Traditional
Primary:
|
|||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||
2005
|
90.6%
|
9.4%
|
|||
2006
|
89.4
|
10.6
|
|||
2007
|
88.0
|
12.0
|
|||
As
of September 30:
|
|||||
2007
|
87.8
|
12.2
|
|||
2008
|
89.6%
|
10.4%
|
|||
Bulk
(a):
|
|||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||
2005
|
51.9%
|
48.1%
|
|||
2006
|
51.9
|
48.1
|
|||
2007
|
49.6
|
50.4
|
|||
As of
September 30:
|
|||||
2007
|
49.3
|
50.7
|
|||
2008
|
49.3%
|
50.7%
|
|||
Risk in Force By Loan
Type:
|
Fixed
Rate
|
Adjustable
Rate
|
|||
Traditional
Primary:
|
|||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||
2005
|
90.9%
|
9.1%
|
|||
2006
|
92.3
|
7.7
|
|||
2007
|
94.4
|
5.6
|
|||
As of
September 30:
|
|||||
2007
|
93.6
|
6.4
|
|||
2008
|
95.6%
|
4.4%
|
|||
Bulk
(a):
|
|||||
As
of December 31:
|
|||||
2005
|
64.6%
|
35.4%
|
|||
2006
|
65.7
|
34.3
|
|||
2007
|
70.9
|
29.1
|
|||
As of
September 30:
|
|||||
2007
|
70.7
|
29.3
|
|||
2008
|
73.6%
|
26.4%
|
|||
|
(a)
|
Bulk
pool risk in-force, which represented 44.1% of total bulk risk in-force at
September 30, 2008, has been allocated pro-rata based on insurance
in-force.
|
25
The following table shows the
percentage distribution of Title Group premium and fee revenues by production
sources:
Title
Premium and Fee Production by Source
|
||||
Direct
Operations
|
Independent
Title
Agents
& Other
|
|||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||
2005
|
37.1%
|
62.9%
|
||
2006
|
32.3
|
67.7
|
||
2007
|
32.1
|
67.9
|
||
Nine
Months Ended September
30:
|
||||
2007
|
32.6
|
67.4
|
||
2008
|
36.4
|
63.6
|
||
Quarters
Ended September
30:
|
||||
2007
|
30.6
|
69.4
|
||
2008
|
37.1%
|
62.9%
|
Revenues:
Net Investment Income
|
Net investment income is affected by
trends in interest and dividend yields for the types of securities in which the
Company’s funds are invested during individual reporting periods. The following
tables reflect the segmented and consolidated invested asset bases as of the
indicated dates, and the investment income earned and resulting yields on such
assets. Since the Company can exercise little control over market values, yields
are evaluated on the basis of investment income earned in relation to the
amortized cost of the underlying invested assets, though yields based on the
market values of such assets are also shown in the statistics
below.
Invested
Assets at Cost
|
Market
Value
|
Invested
|
||||||||||||||||||
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Corporate
and Other
|
Total
|
Adjust- ment
|
Asset
at
Market
Value
|
||||||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
$
|
5,524.8
|
$
|
1,571.6
|
$
|
611.1
|
$
|
246.6
|
$
|
7,954.3
|
$
|
101.8
|
$
|
8,056.1
|
||||||
2007
|
5,984.9
|
1,795.8
|
606.0
|
252.9
|
8,639.7
|
121.4
|
8,761.2
|
|||||||||||||
As
of September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
5,839.7
|
1,695.3
|
613.7
|
259.7
|
8,408.6
|
157.6
|
8,566.2
|
|||||||||||||
2008
|
$
|
5,645.5
|
$
|
1,983.7
|
$
|
576.9
|
$
|
343.5
|
$
|
8,549.4
|
$
|
(9.7)
|
$
|
8,539.6
|
Net
Investment Income
|
Yield
at
|
|||||||||||||||||||
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Corporate
and Other
|
Total
|
Original
Cost
|
Market
|
||||||||||||||
Years
Ended
|
||||||||||||||||||||
December
31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
$
|
197.0
|
$
|
70.1
|
$
|
26.0
|
$
|
16.9
|
$
|
310.1
|
4.51
|
%
|
4.40
|
%
|
||||||
2006
|
221.5
|
74.3
|
26.9
|
18.7
|
341.6
|
4.52
|
4.47
|
|||||||||||||
2007
|
260.8
|
79.0
|
27.3
|
12.7
|
379.9
|
4.58
|
4.52
|
|||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended
|
||||||||||||||||||||
September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
192.8
|
57.9
|
20.2
|
9.2
|
280.4
|
4.57
|
4.50
|
|||||||||||||
2008
|
189.1
|
65.0
|
19.1
|
9.0
|
282.3
|
4.28
|
4.35
|
|||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended
|
||||||||||||||||||||
September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
65.3
|
19.9
|
6.7
|
3.0
|
95.1
|
4.60
|
4.54
|
|||||||||||||
2008
|
$
|
61.9
|
$
|
22.0
|
$
|
6.2
|
$
|
3.6
|
$
|
93.8
|
4.21
|
%
|
4.40
|
%
|
Revenues:
Net Realized Gains
|
The Company's investment policies
have not been designed to maximize or emphasize the securing of investment
gains. Rather, these policies aim to assure a stable source of income from
interest and dividends, protection of capital, and the providing of sufficient
liquidity to meet insurance underwriting and other obligations as they become
payable in the future. Sales of fixed maturity securities arise mostly from
scheduled maturities and early calls; for the first nine months of 2008 and
2007, 89.7% and 95.2%, respectively, of all such dispositions resulted from
these occurrences. Dispositions of equity securities at a realized gain or loss
reflect such factors as ongoing assessments of issuers’ business prospects,
rotation among industry sectors, and tax planning considerations. Additionally,
the amount of net realized investment gains and losses registered in any one
accounting period are affected by the aforementioned assessments of securities’
values for other-than-temporary impairment. As a result of the interaction of
all these factors and considerations, net realized investment gains or losses
can vary significantly from period-to-period, and in the Company’s
view are not indicative of any particular trend or result in the basics of its
insurance business.
26
The following table reflects the
composition of net realized investment gains or losses for the periods shown. A
significant portion of Old Republic’s indexed stock portfolio was sold at a gain
during 2007, with proceeds redirected to a more concentrated, select list of
common stocks expected to provide greater long-term total returns. Relatively
greater realized investment gains in equity securities in 2005 resulted largely
from sales of substantial portions of actively managed equity holdings and
reinvestment of proceeds in index-style investment portfolios.
Realized
Gains (Losses) on
Disposition
of Securities
|
Impairment
Losses on Securities
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Fixed
maturity
securities
|
Equity
securities
and
miscell-aneous investments
|
Total
|
Fixed
maturity securities
|
Equity
securities
and
miscell-aneous investments
|
Total
|
Net
realized
gains
(losses)
|
|||||||||||||||
Years
Ended
December
31:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
$
|
4.5
|
$
|
69.6
|
$
|
74.1
|
$
|
(2.7)
|
$
|
(6.5)
|
$
|
(9.2)
|
$
|
64.9
|
|||||||
2006
|
2.0
|
16.9
|
19.0
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
19.0
|
||||||||||||||
2007
|
2.2
|
68.1
|
70.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
70.3
|
||||||||||||||
Nine
Months Ended
September
30:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
1.2
|
19.0
|
20.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
20.3
|
||||||||||||||
2008
|
4.0
|
22.0
|
26.0
|
(11.5)
|
(437.3)
|
(448.9)
|
(422.8)
|
||||||||||||||
Quarters
Ended
September
30:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
-
|
3.9
|
3.9
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
3.9
|
||||||||||||||
2008
|
$
|
1.3
|
$
|
17.0
|
$
|
18.3
|
$
|
(11.5)
|
$
|
-
|
$
|
(11.5)
|
$
|
6.7
|
Expenses:
Benefits and Claims
|
In order to achieve a necessary
matching of premium and fee revenues and expenses, the Company records the
benefits, claims and related settlement costs that have been incurred during
each accounting period. Total claim costs are affected by the amount of paid
claims and the adequacy of reserve estimates established for current and prior
years’ claim occurrences at each balance sheet date.
The following table shows a breakdown
of gross and net of reinsurance claim and loss adjustment expense reserve
estimates for major types of insurance coverages as of September 30, 2008 and
December 31, 2007:
Claim
and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves
|
||||||||||||||||
September
30, 2008
|
December
31, 2007
|
|||||||||||||||
Gross
|
Net
|
Gross
|
Net
|
|||||||||||||
Commercial
automobile (mostly trucking)
|
$
|
1,047.9
|
$
|
861.5
|
$
|
1,041.6
|
$
|
845.6
|
||||||||
Workers'
compensation
|
2,243.5
|
1,266.5
|
2,195.5
|
1,265.8
|
||||||||||||
General
liability
|
1,196.0
|
602.9
|
1,173.2
|
587.1
|
||||||||||||
Other
coverages
|
724.9
|
501.3
|
691.2
|
476.9
|
||||||||||||
Unallocated
loss adjustment expense reserves
|
148.4
|
103.0
|
154.8
|
104.0
|
||||||||||||
Total
general insurance reserves
|
5,360.9
|
3,335.4
|
5,256.5
|
3,279.7
|
||||||||||||
Mortgage
guaranty
|
1,338.6
|
1,202.4
|
645.2
|
642.9
|
||||||||||||
Title
|
270.4
|
270.4
|
273.5
|
273.5
|
||||||||||||
Life
and health
|
29.5
|
23.8
|
30.3
|
24.7
|
||||||||||||
Unallocated
loss adjustment expense reserves –
other
coverages
|
25.9
|
25.9
|
25.4
|
25.4
|
||||||||||||
Total
claim and loss adjustment expense reserves
|
$
|
7,025.6
|
$
|
4,858.1
|
$
|
6,231.1
|
$
|
4,246.3
|
||||||||
Asbestosis
and environmental claim reserves included
in
the above general insurance reserves:
|
||||||||||||||||
Amount
|
$
|
175.6
|
$
|
147.3
|
$
|
190.5
|
$
|
158.1
|
||||||||
%
of total general insurance reserves
|
3.3
|
%
|
4.4
|
%
|
3.6
|
%
|
4.8
|
%
|
The Company’s reserve for loss and loss
adjustment expenses represents the accumulation of estimates of ultimate losses,
including incurred but not reported losses and loss adjustment expenses. The
establishment of claim reserves by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries is a
reasonably complex and dynamic process influenced by a large variety of factors
as further discussed below. Consequently, reserves established are a reflection
of the opinions of a large number of persons, of the application and
interpretation of historical precedent and trends, of expectations as to future
developments, and of management’s judgment in interpreting all such factors. At
any point in time the Company is
27
exposed
to possibly higher or lower than anticipated claim costs and the resulting
changes in estimates are recorded in operations of the periods during which they
are made. Increases to prior reserve estimates are often referred to as
unfavorable development whereas any changes that decrease previous estimates of
the Company’s ultimate liability are referred to as favorable
development.
Overview
of Loss Reserving Process
Most of Old Republic’s consolidated
claim and related expense reserves stem from its general
insurance business. At September 30, 2008, such reserves accounted for
76.3% and 68.7% of consolidated gross and net of reinsurance reserves,
respectively, while similar reserves at December 31, 2007 represented 84.4% and
77.2% of the respective consolidated amounts.
The Company’s reserve setting process
reflects the nature of its insurance business and the decentralized basis upon
which it is conducted. Old Republic’s general insurance operations
encompass a large variety of lines or classes of commercial insurance; it has
negligible exposure to personal lines such as homeowners or private passenger
automobile insurance that exhibit wide diversification of risks, significant
frequency of claim occurrences, and high degrees of statistical credibility.
Additionally, the Company’s insurance subsidiaries do not provide significant
amounts of insurance protection for premises; most of its property insurance
exposures relate to cargo, incidental property, and insureds’ inland marine
assets. Consequently, the wide variety of policies issued and commercial
insurance customers served require that loss reserves be analyzed and
established in the context of the unique or different attributes of each block
or class of business produced by the Company. For example, accident liability
claims emanating from insured trucking companies or from general aviation
customers become known relatively quickly, whereas claims of a general liability
nature arising from the building activities of a construction company may emerge
over extended periods of time. Similarly, claims filed pursuant to errors and
omissions or directors and officers’ (“E&O/D&O”) liability coverages are
usually not prone to immediate evaluation or quantification inasmuch as many
such claims may be litigated over several years and their ultimate costs may be
affected by the vagaries of judged or jury verdicts. Approximately 86% of the
general insurance
group’s claim reserves stem from liability insurance coverages for commercial
customers which typically require more extended periods of investigation and at
times protracted litigation before they are finally settled. As a consequence of
these and other factors, Old Republic does not utilize a single, overarching
loss reserving approach.
The Company prepares periodic analyses
of its loss reserve estimates for its significant insurance coverages. It
establishes point estimates for most losses on an insurance coverage
line-by-line basis for individual subsidiaries, sub-classes, individual
accounts, blocks of business or other unique concentrations of insurance risks
such as directors and officers’ liability, that have similar attributes.
Actuarially or otherwise derived ranges of reserve levels are not utilized as
such in setting these reserves. Instead the reported reserves encompass the
Company’s best point estimates at each reporting date and the overall reserve
level at any point in time therefore represents the compilation of a very large
number of reported reserve estimates and the results of a variety of formula
calculations largely driven by statistical analysis of historical data. Reserve
releases or additions are implicitly covered by the point estimates incorporated
in total reserves at each balance sheet date. The Company does not project
future variability or make an explicit provision for uncertainty when
determining its best estimate of loss reserves, although over the most recent
ten-year period management’s estimates have developed slightly favorably on an
overall basis.
Aggregate loss reserves consist of
liability estimates for claims that have been reported (“case”) to the Company’s
insurance subsidiaries and reserves for claims that have been incurred but not
yet reported (“IBNR”) or whose ultimate costs may not become fully apparent
until a future time. Additionally, the Company establishes unallocated loss
adjustment expense reserves for loss settlement costs that are not directly
related to individual claims. Such reserves are based on prior years’ cost
experience and trends, and are intended to cover the unallocated costs of claim
departments’ administration of case and IBNR claims over time. Long-term,
disability-type workers’ compensation reserves are discounted to present value
based on interest rates that range from 3.5% to 4.0%.
A large variety of statistical analyses
and formula calculations are utilized to provide for IBNR claim costs as well as
additional costs that can arise from such factors as monetary and social
inflation, changes in claims administration processes, changes in reinsurance
ceded and recoverability levels, and expected trends in claim costs and related
ratios. Typically, such formulas take into account so-called link ratios that
represent prior years’ patterns of incurred or paid loss trends between
succeeding years, or past experience relative to progressions of the number of
claims reported over time and ultimate average costs per claim.
Overall, reserves pertaining to several
hundred large individual commercial insurance accounts that exhibit sufficient
statistical credibility, and at times may be subject to retrospective premium
rating plans or the utilization of varying levels or types of self-insured
retentions through captive insurers and similar risk management mechanisms are
established on an account by account basis using case reserves and applicable
formula-driven methods. Large account reserves are usually set and analyzed for
groups of coverages such as workers compensation, commercial auto and general
liability that are typically underwritten jointly for many customers. For
certain so-called long-tail categories of insurance such as retained or assumed
excess liability or excess workers’ compensation, officers and directors’
liability, and commercial umbrella liability relative to which claim development
patterns are particularly long, more volatile, and immature in their early
stages of development, the Company judgmentally establishes the most current
accident years’ loss reserves on the basis of expected loss ratios. Such
expected loss ratios typically reflect currently estimated loss ratios from
prior accident years, adjusted for the effect of actual and anticipated rate
changes, actual and anticipated changes in
28
coverage,
reinsurance, mix of business, and other anticipated changes in external factors
such as trends in loss costs or the legal and claims environment. Expected loss
ratios are generally used for the two to three most recent accident years
depending on the individual class or category of business. As actual claims data
emerges in succeeding interim and annual periods, the original accident year
loss ratio assumptions are validated or otherwise adjusted sequentially through
the application of statistical projection techniques such as the
Bornhuetter/Ferguson method which utilizes data from the more mature experience
of prior years to arrive at a likely indication of more recent years’ loss
trends and costs.
Mortgage
guaranty insurance loss reserves are based
on statistical calculations that take into account the number of reported
insured mortgage loan defaults as of each balance sheet date, as well as
experience-based estimates of IBNR. Further, such loss reserve estimates also
take into account a large number of variables including trends in claim
severity, potential salvage recoveries, expected cure rates for reported loan
delinquencies at various stages of default, and judgments relative to future
employment levels, housing market activity, and mortgage loan interest costs,
demand, and extensions.
Title
insurance and related escrow
services loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are established as point
estimates to cover the projected settlement costs of known as well as IBNR
losses related to premium and escrow service revenues of each reporting period.
Reserves for known claims are based on an assessment of the facts available to
the Company during the settlement process. The point estimates covering all
claim reserves take into account IBNR claims based on past experience and
evaluations of such variables as changing trends in the types of policies
issued, changes in real estate markets and interest rate environments, and
changing levels of loan refinancing, all of which can have a bearing on the
emergence, number, and ultimate costs of claims.
Incurred
Loss Experience
Management is of the opinion that the
Company’s overall reserving practices have been consistently applied over many
years. For at least the past ten years, previously established aggregate
reserves have produced reasonable estimates of the cumulative ultimate net costs
of claims incurred. However, there are no guarantees that such outcomes will
continue, and accordingly, no representation is made that ultimate net claim and
related costs will not develop in future years to be greater or lower than
currently established reserve estimates. In management’s opinion, however, such
potential development is not likely to have a material effect on the Company’s
consolidated financial position, although it could materially affect its
consolidated results of operations for any one annual or interim reporting
period. See further discussion in the Company’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K,
under Item 1A - Risk Factors.
The percentage of net claims,
benefits and related settlement expenses incurred as a percentage of premiums
and related fee revenues of the Company’s three major operating segments and for
its consolidated results were as follows:
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Consolidated
|
|||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||
2005
|
66.9
|
%
|
37.2
|
%
|
6.0
|
%
|
43.3
|
%
|
||||
2006
|
65.9
|
42.8
|
5.9
|
45.3
|
||||||||
2007
|
67.8
|
118.8
|
6.6
|
60.2
|
||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
66.5
|
96.4
|
6.4
|
55.6
|
||||||||
2008
|
72.8
|
192.3
|
7.0
|
80.1
|
||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
67.7
|
161.9
|
6.8
|
66.4
|
||||||||
2008
|
72.5
|
%
|
203.1
|
%
|
7.0
|
%
|
81.8
|
%
|
The percentage of net claims,
benefits and related settlement expenses measured against premiums earned by
major general insurance
types of coverage were as follows:
General
Insurance Claims Ratios by Type of Coverage
|
|||||||||||
Commercial
Automobile
(mostly
trucking)
|
Workers’
Compensation
|
Financial
Indemnity
|
Inland
Marine
and
Property
|
General
Liability
|
Other
|
||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
|||||||||||
2005
|
66.9%
|
78.9%
|
48.9%
|
52.1%
|
97.4%
|
59.5%
|
|||||
2006
|
75.4
|
74.5
|
40.6
|
55.0
|
57.5
|
55.6
|
|||||
2007
|
74.0
|
70.9
|
69.6
|
54.9
|
59.9
|
55.9
|
|||||
Nine
Months Ended September
30:
|
|||||||||||
2007
|
73.6
|
71.0
|
62.4
|
55.3
|
57.2
|
55.1
|
|||||
2008
|
74.8
|
67.4
|
98.9
|
62.3
|
61.1
|
53.7
|
|||||
Quarters
Ended September
30:
|
|||||||||||
2007
|
71.0
|
72.1
|
70.6
|
58.9
|
59.7
|
54.7
|
|||||
2008
|
77.3%
|
63.8%
|
92.5%
|
72.8%
|
53.4%
|
52.6%
|
The general insurance portion of
the claims ratio reflects reasonably consistent overall trends through December
31, 2007. To a large extent this major cost factor reflects pricing and risk
selection improvements that have been applied
29
since
2001, together with elements of reduced loss severity and frequency. The higher
claims ratio for financial indemnity coverages in 2007 and both 2008 periods was
driven principally by greater claim frequencies experienced in Old Republic’s
consumer credit indemnity coverage. During the three most recent calendar years,
the general insurance
group experienced favorable development of prior year loss reserves primarily
due to the commercial automobile and the E&O/D&O (financial indemnity)
lines of business; these were partially offset by unfavorable development in
excess workers compensation coverages, and for ongoing development of asbestos
and environmental (“A&E”) exposures (general liability). Unfavorable
developments attributable to A&E claim reserves are due to periodic
re-evaluations of such reserves as well as reclassifications of other coverages’
reserves, typically workers compensation, deemed assignable to A&E types of
losses.
Except for a small portion that
emanates from ongoing primary insurance operations, a large majority of the
A&E claim reserves posted by Old Republic stem mainly from its
participations in assumed reinsurance treaties and insurance pools which were
discontinued fifteen or more years ago and have since been in run-off status.
With respect to the primary portion of gross A&E reserves, Old Republic
administers the related claims through its claims personnel as well as outside
attorneys, and posted reserves reflect its best estimates of ultimate claim
costs. Claims administration for the assumed portion of the Company’s A&E
exposures is handled by the claims departments of unrelated primary or ceding
reinsurance companies. While the Company performs periodic reviews of certain
claim files managed by third parties, the overall A&E reserves it
establishes respond to the paid claim and case reserve activity reported to the
Company as well as available industry statistical data such as so-called
survival ratios. Such ratios represent the number of years’ average paid losses
for the three or five most recent calendar years that are encompassed by an
insurer’s A&E reserve level at any point in time. According to this
simplistic appraisal of an insurer’s A&E loss reserve level, Old Republic’s
average five year survival ratios stood at 7.5 years (gross) and 9.9 years (net
of reinsurance) as of September 30, 2008 and 7.7 years (gross) and 10.7 years
(net of reinsurance) as of December 31, 2007. Fluctuations in this ratio between
years can be caused by the inconsistent pay out patterns associated with these
types of claims. Incurred net losses for A&E claims have averaged 2.8% of
general insurance group
net incurred losses for the five years ended December 31, 2007.
The mortgage guaranty claims
ratios have continued to rise in recent periods, principally reflecting higher
paid losses, as well as expectations of greater claim frequency and severity.
The most recent quarterly and full year 2007 claim ratios comparisons reflect a
significant increase due primarily to increasing loss severity on reported
delinquencies as well as to higher expected claim frequencies and the resulting
impact on claims reserves. Claim severity has trended upward primarily due to
loans with larger unpaid principal balances and corresponding risk moving into
default along with a lower level of mitigation potential due to housing
depreciation trends. Expectations of greater claim frequency are impacted by
several factors, including the number of loans entering into default, the
outlook for the housing market, tightening lending standards which effect
borrowers’ ability to refinance troubled loans, the aging of the bulk business,
and the state of the economy overall, especially employment levels.
Average
mortgage guaranty paid
claims, and certain delinquency ratio data as of the end of the periods shown
are listed below:
Average
Paid Claim Amount (a)
|
Delinquency
Ratio
|
||||||||||||
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
|
Traditional
Primary
|
Bulk
|
||||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
|||||||||||||
2005
|
$
|
24,255
|
$
|
20,639
|
4.67
|
%
|
3.67
|
%
|
|||||
2006
|
25,989
|
21,846
|
4.41
|
3.29
|
|||||||||
2007
|
32,214
|
34,951
|
5.47
|
6.85
|
|||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September
30:
|
|||||||||||||
2007
|
29,877
|
28,658
|
4.75
|
4.84
|
|||||||||
2008
|
41,401
|
56,047
|
8.36
|
%
|
13.80
|
%
|
|||||||
Quarters
Ended September
30:
|
|||||||||||||
2007
|
31,247
|
30,794
|
|||||||||||
2008
|
$
|
44,649
|
$
|
61,023
|
|||||||||
|
(a)
Amounts are in whole dollars.
|
30
Traditional
Primary Delinquency Ratios for Top Ten States (b):
|
||||||||||||||||||||
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
CA
|
NJ
|
VA
|
NC
|
PA
|
|||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
3.1%
|
5.7%
|
5.9%
|
4.2%
|
8.3%
|
1.8%
|
4.1%
|
2.2%
|
4.9%
|
4.7%
|
||||||||||
2006
|
2.7
|
4.5
|
6.1
|
4.5
|
7.8
|
2.9
|
4.1
|
2.6
|
4.6
|
4.8
|
||||||||||
2007
|
7.7
|
4.5
|
7.2
|
5.4
|
8.1
|
6.7
|
5.4
|
4.1
|
4.8
|
5.2
|
||||||||||
As of
September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
5.3
|
4.1
|
6.5
|
4.8
|
7.6
|
4.9
|
4.5
|
3.3
|
4.3
|
4.8
|
||||||||||
2008
|
17.1%
|
5.7%
|
9.2%
|
8.5%
|
9.5%
|
15.9%
|
9.1%
|
6.5%
|
6.0%
|
6.6%
|
||||||||||
Bulk
Delinquency Ratios for Top Ten States (b):
|
||||||||||||||||||||
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
CA
|
NJ
|
NY
|
CO
|
AZ
|
|||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
1.9%
|
5.5%
|
5.8%
|
3.0%
|
8.4%
|
.9%
|
3.7%
|
4.3%
|
3.0%
|
.9%
|
||||||||||
2006
|
1.6
|
4.0
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
9.3
|
1.6
|
3.5
|
4.4
|
3.3
|
1.0
|
||||||||||
2007
|
7.8
|
5.4
|
7.3
|
8.6
|
10.6
|
7.0
|
6.6
|
6.6
|
5.8
|
5.1
|
||||||||||
As of
September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
5.8
|
6.1
|
8.7
|
4.3
|
4.9
|
5.2
|
4.4
|
2.8
|
||||||||||
2008
|
21.4%
|
8.0%
|
13.3%
|
15.7%
|
15.0%
|
17.6%
|
12.9%
|
11.5%
|
8.0%
|
13.9%
|
||||||||||
Total
Delinquency Ratios for Top Ten States (includes “other” business)
(b):
|
||||||||||||||||||||
FL
|
TX
|
GA
|
IL
|
OH
|
CA
|
NJ
|
NY
|
NC
|
PA
|
|||||||||||
As
of December 31:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2005
|
2.4%
|
5.3%
|
5.3%
|
2.8%
|
7.5%
|
.9%
|
3.7%
|
3.7%
|
3.8%
|
4.3%
|
||||||||||
2006
|
2.0
|
4.1
|
5.2
|
3.1
|
7.3
|
1.4
|
3.6
|
4.0
|
3.3
|
4.3
|
||||||||||
2007
|
6.9
|
4.5
|
6.7
|
5.0
|
8.0
|
5.5
|
5.5
|
5.4
|
4.1
|
5.1
|
||||||||||
As of
September 30:
|
||||||||||||||||||||
2007
|
4.5
|
4.0
|
5.9
|
4.2
|
7.4
|
3.5
|
4.5
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
4.6
|
||||||||||
2008
|
16.7%
|
5.8%
|
9.3%
|
8.2%
|
9.8%
|
13.6%
|
9.7%
|
8.8%
|
5.4%
|
6.9%
|
||||||||||
|
(b)
|
As
determined by risk in force as of September 30, 2008, these 10 states
represent 49.5%, 59.8%, and 50.0%, of traditional primary, bulk, and total
risk in force, respectively.
|
The title insurance loss ratios
remain in the low single digits due to a continuation of favorable trends in
claims frequency and severity for business underwritten since 1992 in
particular. Though still reasonably contained, the increases in claim costs in
2007 and for the first nine months of 2008 are reflective of the continuing
downturn in the housing and related mortgage lending industries.
Reinsurance
Programs
To maintain premium production within
its capacity and limit maximum losses and risks for which it might become liable
under its policies, Old Republic may cede a portion or all of its premiums and
liabilities on certain classes of insurance, individual policies, or blocks of
business to other insurers and reinsurers. Further discussion of the Company’s
reinsurance programs can be found in Part 1 of the Company’s 2007 Annual Report
on Form 10-K.
Expenses:
Underwriting, Acquisition and Other
Expenses
|
The following table sets forth the
expense ratios registered by each major business segment and in consolidation
for the periods shown:
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Consolidated
|
|||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||
2005
|
24.6
|
%
|
22.4
|
%
|
88.2
|
%
|
45.2
|
%
|
||||
2006
|
24.4
|
22.5
|
93.6
|
44.7
|
||||||||
2007
|
24.1
|
17.7
|
98.1
|
41.3
|
||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
24.5
|
18.4
|
96.3
|
41.7
|
||||||||
2008
|
24.2
|
15.8
|
102.0
|
39.0
|
||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
23.0
|
15.0
|
97.5
|
40.2
|
||||||||
2008
|
23.8
|
%
|
14.8
|
%
|
102.2
|
%
|
38.8
|
%
|
Variations in the Company’s
consolidated ratios reflect a continually changing mix of coverages sold
and attendant costs of producing business in the Company’s three largest
business segments. To a significant degree, expense ratios for both the general
and title insurance segments are mostly reflective of variable costs, such as
commissions or similar charges, that rise or decline along with corresponding
changes in premium and fee income, as well as changes in general operating
expenses which can contract or expand in differing proportions due to varying
levels of operating efficiencies and expense management opportunities in the
face of changing market conditions.
31
Expenses:
Total
|
The composite ratios of the above net
claims, benefits and underwriting expenses that reflect the sum total of all the
factors discussed herein were as follows:
General
|
Mortgage
|
Title
|
Consolidated
|
|||||||||
Years
Ended December 31:
|
||||||||||||
2005
|
91.5
|
%
|
59.6
|
%
|
94.2
|
%
|
88.5
|
%
|
||||
2006
|
90.3
|
65.3
|
99.5
|
90.0
|
||||||||
2007
|
91.9
|
136.5
|
104.7
|
101.5
|
||||||||
Nine
Months Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
91.0
|
114.8
|
102.7
|
97.3
|
||||||||
2008
|
97.0
|
208.1
|
109.0
|
119.1
|
||||||||
Quarters
Ended September 30:
|
||||||||||||
2007
|
90.7
|
176.9
|
104.3
|
106.6
|
||||||||
2008
|
96.3
|
%
|
217.9
|
%
|
109.2
|
%
|
120.6
|
%
|
Expenses:
Income Taxes
|
The effective consolidated income tax
rates on pretax losses were 34.6% and 31.6% in the third quarter and first nine
months of 2008, compared to effective tax rates on pretax income of 16.6% and
29.6% in the third quarter and first nine months of 2007. The rates reflect
primarily the varying proportions of pretax operating income derived from
partially tax-sheltered investment income (principally state and municipal
tax-exempt interest) on the one hand, and the combination of fully taxable
investment income, realized investment gains or losses, and underwriting and
service income, on the other hand.
OTHER
INFORMATION
|
Reference
is here made to “Information About Segments of Business” appearing elsewhere
herein.
Historical
data pertaining to the operating results, liquidity, and other performance
indicators applicable to an insurance enterprise such as Old Republic are not
necessarily indicative of results to be achieved in succeeding years. In
addition to the factors cited below, the long-term nature of the insurance
business, seasonal and annual patterns in premium production and incidence of
claims, changes in yields obtained on invested assets, changes in government
policies and free markets affecting inflation rates and general economic
conditions, and changes in legal precedents or the application of law affecting
the settlement of disputed and other claims can have a bearing on
period-to-period comparisons and future operating results.
Some of
the oral or written statements made in the Company’s reports, press releases,
and conference calls following earnings releases, can constitute
“forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Of necessity, any such forward-looking statements
involve assumptions, uncertainties, and risks that may affect the Company’s
future performance. With regard to Old Republic’s General Insurance segment, its
results can be affected, in particular, by the level of market competition,
which is typically a function of available capital and expected returns on such
capital among competitors, the levels of interest and inflation rates, and
periodic changes in claim frequency and severity patterns caused by natural
disasters, weather conditions, accidents, illnesses, work-related injuries, and
unanticipated external events. Mortgage Guaranty and Title Insurance results can
be affected by similar factors, and by changes in national and regional housing
demand and values, the availability and cost of mortgage loans, employment
trends, and default rates on mortgage loans. Mortgage Guaranty results, in
particular, may also be affected by various risk-sharing arrangements with
business producers, as well as the risk management and pricing policies of
government-sponsored enterprises. Life and health insurance earnings can be
affected by the levels of employment and consumer spending, variations in
mortality and health trends, and changes in policy lapsation rates. At the
parent holding company level, operating earnings or losses are generally
reflective of the amount of debt outstanding and its cost, interest income on
temporary holdings of short-term investments, and period-to-period variations in
the costs of administering the Company’s widespread operations.
A more
detailed listing and discussion of the risks and other factors which affect the
Company’s risk-taking insurance business are included in Part I, Item 1A - Risk
Factors, of the Company’s 2007 Form 10-K annual report to the Securities and
Exchange Commission, which Item is specifically incorporated herein by
reference.
Any
forward-looking statements or commentaries speak only as of their dates. Old
Republic undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any and all such
comments, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise,
and accordingly they may not be unduly relied upon.
32
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
Item
3 - Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure About Market Risk
Market
risk represents the potential for loss due to adverse changes in the fair value
of financial instruments as a result of changes in interest rates, equity
prices, foreign exchange rates and commodity prices. Old Republic’s primary
market risks consist of interest rate risk associated with investments in fixed
maturities and equity price risk associated with investments in equity
securities. The Company has no material foreign exchange or commodity
risk.
Old
Republic’s market risk exposures at September 30, 2008, have not materially
changed from those identified in the Company’s 2007 Annual Report on Form
10-K.
Item
4 - Controls and Procedures
Evaluation
of Disclosure Controls and Procedures
The
Company’s principal executive officer and its principal financial officer have
evaluated the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures as of the end of the
period covered by this quarterly report. Based upon their evaluation, the
principal executive officer and principal financial officer have concluded that
the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e)
and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934) are effective for the
above referenced evaluation period.
Changes
in Internal Control
During
the three month period ended September 30, 2008, there were no changes in
internal control over financial reporting that have materially affected, or are
reasonably likely to materially affect, the Company’s internal control over
financial reporting.
Management’s
Report on Internal Control Over Financial Reporting
The
Company’s internal control over financial reporting is a process designed to
provide reasonable assurance regarding the reliability of financial reporting
and the preparation of financial statements for external purposes in accordance
with generally accepted accounting principles. The Company’s internal control
over financial reporting includes those policies and procedures that (i) pertain
to the maintenance of records that, in reasonable detail, accurately and fairly
reflect the transactions and dispositions of the assets of the Company; (ii)
provide reasonable assurance that transactions are recorded as necessary to
permit preparation of financial statements in accordance with generally accepted
accounting principles, and that receipts and expenditures of the Company are
being made only in accordance with authorizations of management and directors of
the Company; and (iii) provide reasonable assurance regarding prevention or
timely detection of unauthorized acquisition, use or disposition of the
Company’s assets that could have a material effect on the financial
statements.
Because
of its inherent limitations, internal control over financial reporting may not
prevent or detect misstatements. Also, projections of any evaluation of
effectiveness to future periods are subject to the risk that controls may become
inadequate because of changes in conditions, or that the degree of compliance
with the policies or procedures may deteriorate.
33
OLD
REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION
FORM
10-Q
PART
II – OTHER INFORMATION
Item 1 – Legal
Proceedings
The
information contained in Note 6 “Commitments and Contingent Liabilities” of the
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements filed as Part 1 of this Quarterly
Report on Form 10-Q is incorporated herein by reference.
Item 1A – Risk
Factors
There
have been no material changes with respect to the risk factors disclosed in the
Company’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Item 6 –
Exhibits
(a)
Exhibits
|
31.1
|
Certification
by Aldo C. Zucaro, Chief Executive Officer, pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a) and
15d-14(a), as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
|
31.2
|
Certification
by Karl W. Mueller, Chief Financial Officer, pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)
and 15d-14(a), as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act of 2002.
|
|
32.1
|
Certification
by Aldo C. Zucaro, Chief Executive Officer, pursuant to Section 1350,
Chapter 63 of Title 18, United States Code, as adopted pursuant to Section
906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
|
32.2
|
Certification
by Karl W. Mueller, Chief Financial Officer, pursuant to Section 1350,
Chapter 63 of Title 18, United States Code, as adopted pursuant to Section
906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
34
|
SIGNATURE
|
Pursuant
to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has
duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto
duly authorized.
Old
Republic International Corporation
|
|||
(Registrant)
|
|||
Date:
|
October
31, 2008
|
||
/s/
Karl W. Mueller
|
|||
Karl
W. Mueller
Senior
Vice President,
Chief
Financial Officer, and
Principal
Accounting Officer
|
35
EXHIBIT
INDEX
Exhibit
|
||
No.
|
Description
|
|
31.1
|
Certification
by Aldo C. Zucaro, Chief Executive Officer, pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a) and
15d-14(a), as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
|
31.2
|
Certification
by Karl W. Mueller, Chief Financial Officer, pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a)
and 15d-14(a), as adopted pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act of 2002.
|
|
32.1
|
Certification
by Aldo C. Zucaro, Chief Executive Officer, pursuant to Section 1350,
Chapter 63 of Title 18, United States Code, as adopted pursuant to Section
906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
|
|
32.2
|
Certification
by Karl W. Mueller, Chief Financial Officer, pursuant to Section 1350,
Chapter 63 of Title 18, United States Code, as adopted pursuant to Section
906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of
2002.
|
36